A War of Miscalculation 26 Dec 26, 2006, 17:35 The UIC1 has already made its mistake. They threatened Ethiopia and stirred the wasp’s nest, but they have not bothered to prepare themselves with protective clothing. They had the guts, the belief, the belligerence but not the arms, the organization or the depth of pocket necessary for waging a war (Jihad) against Ethiopia. They believed their own rhetoric of god being on their side, of representing all Somalis, of having already taken over and centralized the whole power in the nation in their hand. They appointed their Emir, their war consul and declared their Jihad; effectively alienating both friend and foe. They talked the talk. And when it came to walking the walk they threw young bodies armed with weapons not much better than spears and a prayer against the well oiled fully equipped Ethiopian meat grinder. The youth were gallant beyond belief; they threw themselves with gusto into the battle. They mowed down wave after wave of Ethiopian army with valor rarely equaled; in places like Mood Moode, Daynuuna, Isale, Bandiiradley…… They fought on nonstop. They fought on with little sleep. They fought on in spite of the shortages of food, fuel and reinforcement. But the Ethiopians kept coming. They came on foot, with tanks, with armored personal carriers, with heavy equipment and heavier mighty flying machines. The Somali youth stood their ground, volunteered advanced and martyred. Volunteered, advanced with Takbiir on their lips and martyred. The leadership of the UIC has not stopped to ponder the meaning of the Somali proverb. “Gudun yahay ima goysayn haddaan badh iga mid ahi kugu jirin” (The tree lamented that the ax with wooden handle would not have been able to cut it down if part of it was not in the ax.) Young Somalis paid a heavy price for this error. Thank God that the UIC had enough sense to stop the self annihilation they inflicted on the youth. And the Ethiopians are about to make their mistake The Ethiopian leader will surely be able to take the land with his superior armor, superior logistics and superior planning capability. He will be able to afford the cost of this war at least initially as he will be allowed to charge it to the War-On-Terror initiative. Zenawi will be able to get a boost in public support as he tramples down on sacred Somali ground. Yes the Ethiopian may take the land but who will hold it for him? Surely not the dogs of war he brings along with him (the likes of Mohamed Dheere and Cabdi the Crazy). These filthy, morally bankrupt criminals have no credibility with Somali people anywhere. They have been rejected by the public long ago. They have no place in Somali society except as defendants in the court of justice for their crimes against humanity. Their presence as running dogs of Ethiopian occupation will only succeed to inflame the wrath of the people and enrich the ranks of the UIC insurgency that is being born and carefully delivered as we speak. The war will become an insurgency. A guerilla movement with trans-tribal ideology, massive following and tight inner discipline will prosper. The funds from the war on terror will dry up as Americans are already becoming disillusioned with the war on terror. It will then be the occupying Ethiopian forces that will end up fighting with little sleep, little reinforcement and little food. Their nights will become full of terror and they will spend the days watching their back. Their death toll will escalate and then explode. Ethiopian and Somali youth will continue to remain the sacrificial lambs as Somali soil turns red with the blood of the innocent. Some countries in the Arab world will laugh all the way to the Nile as Ethiopians will be too exhausted to engage in water arguments at least temporarily. Issayas Afewerki of Eritrea will be ecstatic as someone else fights his war with his Tigre cousin for him. Al-Qaeda will be pleased as the Islamic “révolution sans frontiers” opens a permanent southern front at no cost to itself except of course for few video tapes of exhortation and Fatwa. The only real victims will be the Somali people who will enter another phase of stagnation and self inflicted terror. The Way Out Somalia’s Diaspora leadership has a rare opportunity to make a difference. They have gone out far and wide to over to 15 different foreign countries in artificially baked dead-end Somali reconciliation conferences. Now they need to go to the one place where they have a reasonable chance at long last of making a real difference for Somalis- Somalia. These reconciliation professionals need to go to Mogadishu. They need go to Baidoba. And they need to do so now. The situation is ripe for Somalis to reconcile by themselves, in their own country with the help of their own people. No more Yemenis. No more Sudanese. No more Kenyans, Libyans, Egyptians. No more IGAD nonsense. No more holding Somali “unity” conferences in posh hotels. Few brave good Somalis are needed now to provide a face saving formula for both Zenawi and Aweys and to provide some space for rational dialogue for Somalis every where. No one is more qualified and more suited than professor Ali Khalif Galaydh to take on this initiative. Will he stand up now! By Abdishakur Jowhar: ajowhar@yahoo.com

I have to stay militarly the court made good decision here. this tactics has it is own risk, moral issue and lost of the public support. But survival point of few and long run strategy this very good tactics. It is very much now if moqdisho will stand with them or the former warlods. Now they can hide inside at same time infiltrate the enemy back line but they must hold two weeks. Kismaanyo will soon fall. The court have good chance to defend Jowhar and first time stop other side.

islaanimo iyo soomaalino waa isdaba socdaan. onfl sow argagixiso may ahayn!!! marka hore waa in shahaadada laguu qabto. munaafaqnimadana aad dhaaftid. soomaalinimo latimaadid

ceasefire? even melezawi will welcome ceasefire. he promised victory and triumph for his people.

Is the court victum of their success and the BBC PROPAGANDA? Simply the tactics of huge demonstration and slog words went too far. Ethiopia is a third world country, although they have huge army, they are not capable of occupying large part of Somali. Even their air force luck quality. They can only drop few bombs at the time. The fall of, huge populated Beledweyne shows that court does not have grass roots support in area where it is majority’s leaders came from. The luck of the court not fighting behind the enemy lines is either luck of tactics and imagination or was not ready for war. mobile unites and using mobile defence system is only way they can survive this first face of the war. The only area where the court showed stiff resistant, is IIDAALE with alixtixaad fighters from around the country. Without gross roots and locals participating the war I assume the court will be history very soon and many former moqdisho warlords will be back. Even Dayniile website is ready to welcome their own warlord.

it realy does. the secession is enemy of somalia #1.So far they are with the court but not even a moral support from their goverment. A month ago the ethiopian soldiers came all the way and arrested a man in Boorame in the day light. not even a protest for the secession media although they reported. the history will be the Court side but really beneficial could be the other side. In fact secessionst benefited the darwiish wars,.

I agree this is a disaster. The ethiopian was invited this war two times. One group brought them and the other one attaked. the blame is Indhacade and abdulaahi yusuf. these gready people brought somalia this position. it is a dark day for somalia and will have huge consequases many years to come and will make even more difficult to reconciliate these groups in the future. This will make ethiopia to divide this nation with tribal region. A better outcome should be a somali win. But for now regular somalis should stay away, let us get ready but the war is not ours yet

It really sucks! It is not good day for Somalia. Both sides are losers, the real winner is Sanaawi. Odey Abdilaahi will never recover politically. Thanks Sanaawi he may complete his five years term. In otherhand The court leading by Indhacade made big mistake. they did not need to attack Baydhabo. This war is bad for somalia, much worst than the clan wars we had before. Politically somalis will get far each other not closer. economically and humantrian disaster. let us hope this war should stop for three days, which is more likely for at least now.

Oday Abdulaahi was given another chance, will he deliver this time?. I very much doubt. His tactics is old. At least his close supporters can breath not to lose their post.

Fake? torturing poeple to record a fake video, you must to be kidding. this sheek is Sh. Maxamed Sh. Ismaaciil, He is in Hargeysa jail for a while and He is still there. The reason is to get imformation and benefit it. This is a real and there are more videos with other sheikhs. Haween Mudaharaad Ka Hor Sameeyey Saldhiga Dhexe Hargeysa: Waxay Ka Mudaharadayeen Jidh Dilkii Loo Gaystay Sh. Maxamed Sh. Ismaaciil Somaliland.Org — Hargeisa, Somaliland — 29 September, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hargeysa (Somaliland.Org)-- Waxaa saaka arroortii ka dhacay Saldhiga dhexe ee magaalada hortiisa mudaharaad ay sameeyeen Haween tiro badan kuwaasi oo ka cabanaayey cajalad lagu baahiyey Internetka oo ku saabsanayd garaac iyo jidh dil lagu sameeyey Sh. Maxamed Sh. Ismaaciil oo ka mid ah culumada waaweyn ee laga yaqaano magaalada Hargeysa. Haweenkani oo u badnaa Wadaaddo xijaaban ayaa saaka waxay mudaharaadkoodani ka bilaabeen waddada wadnaha magaalada Hargeysa iyagoo markii danbana isku uruursaday Saldhiga dhexe ee magaalada Hargeysa horteeda halkaasi oo isku dhac ku dhex maray ciidanka Booliiska Magaalada Hargeysa, Taliyaha Ciidamada Booliiska ee Somaliland Maxamed Saqadhe Dubad oo Shabakadda Somaliland.Org la xidhiidhay ayaa sheegay in ciidanku ay xabsiga u taxaabeen dhawr qof oo uu sheegay inay ammaanka qarranka wax u dhimayaan, mar aanu weydiinay inay wax ka jiraan Cajaladani lagu sii daayey shabakadaha Internetka wuu ka gaabsaday inuu wax ka sheego. arrintani oo faahfaahsan iyo mudaharaadkani Hargeysa ka dhacay saaka sida ugu dhakhsaha badanleh ayaanu idiinku soo gudbinayna la socda. MOHAMED ABDI HASSAN (DIRIDHABA) Somaliland.Org, Hargeisa diridhaba@gmail.com

He is a wadaad,likely from other region. Why? money and recognition

This worst than Iraqi. Yesterday it was boosaaso girl. now are they better or worst others? look this video. http://www.radiolaascaanood1.com/maqal2005/al%20qaacida.mpg

Red-Sea. That is true general in somalia. HarGeysa is not different with all NGO. Hargeysa was better when it was the commersial center for the whole somali region in ethiopia. Just imagine all poor people there without work.

with the ethiopian relationship. there are Similarties and differencies between puntland and somaliland. Similarties: start from colonial era, SSDF and SNM to present day. no shame to use foreing powers to get advantage. Differences: people in puntland understand the game. somaliland simply losers. cry for Bush, next day cry for Ethiopia. They do not understand even how to play the game. Ethiopia cannot use them now because their location, but they can be usefull in the future. Just ready to be usefull next time and calm.

what success? Half million people isolated and dying starvation. Any child wearing his father close will be noticable sooner. samattars are preffossianal and objective.

How many members do you have? I give credit the Secessionists, they probably in hundredth's or one thousand out of 240 thousand somali in U.S, still they have big confress and inviting lot people from back home. Call it extrimisem, these individuals are working hard for their cause, whether they sponsered churches or gay organisation .

"Gaalkacyo Waxaan u maleyn jiray in C.M. ay la leeyihiin dad kale (Dacas). War baashiyow sidee wax u wadaa ninyahow. Ma waxaa wali noqotay in Reer S ay u yeeran karaan walaalahood oo diinta ku xukumi doona? " Wadaad baan kuu malaynayey! Qaranimo iyo dowlad baa laga hadlayey iyo maxaa wadanka ufiican. isbarbardhiga ICU IYO TNG. hadii afgooye iyo marka aad ogoshahay in xoog lagu haysto, maxaad kudiidey inay qolokale Gaalkacayo xoog kujoogto. ama xoog xoog ama cadaalad, maxaa kadhexeeya.

The court is clever, they refuse to engage Qaydiid Melesia and Puntland army. They backed up and no where to find them in mudug. Very clever tactics, they do not give puntland a chance to score easy point. losing a battle in mudug and Galgaduud the origin of court base, will not look good, so they really avoiding confrontation there. the time is their side. they are more strong in south and simetime more volnurable

The west had industry revolution and colonized the rest of world. West have benefited the immigration when they needed labor for their factories. things has changed in West, the factories is gone or back to third world countries. The west is experiencing population decrease because the birth rate is low, new economic and military power are emerging from third world countries. The west do not have chance, either choice isolation or face new reality. They could not do any different. Only the sick, getting sicker.

I can only say. Somalia is either closer war or peace. The real issue here is, will court maintain peace in Moqdisho for long time to come, if they do, at least the life will change those people in that region for the better. The issue of Shabeelada Hoose will overshadow the court future. They cannot ignore if they want make transition from local to national. Why it is important, not only justice for people in Shabeelada hoose but also clan's of overthrown warlods are watching For TNG, I already gave up for them. no money, no support from moqdisho and ethiopia. note! although TNG is more representative in the papper, the court has been more open and transparent so far. The nomination for Bare Hiiraale as defence minister will not lift TNG. if not peace,because it never been closer. I am afraid more wars, factions and self declared regions for ever.

Losers: 5) All moqdisho warlods,they are prison or hiding. Particular muse sudi and Bashir Rage who was jailed 4)Riyaale: what passaport, he is travelling? does he care? not really 3)Puntland vice president, Afqudhac. He does not known what he is talking about. The court has cleaned their home. Politics is local 2)Xaabsade from Baydhabo: He cannot come home yet. He will probbly take revenge and order his melesia to moqdisho 1) Abdilaahi yusuf. it is getting him even more difficult. Shariif or Geedi. no one taking order. I am a dictator people used to take my order, what went wrong? Winners. 5) Moqdisho. new future 4) Shariif Xasan, never underestimate. 3) Indhacade, increased his stock, ready the next level. 2) Cade Muse. With uniform he is new King. The Kingdom had better luck. 1) Geedi, experient NGO worker, has more money in mind

are they coming at all? probably a tactic to push the court for negotiation. who is going to pay? They cannot get peace forces for libenan, where the priority is. I do not think it materalize. Training security forces for TNG and partialy lifting embargo is better for Baydhabo goverment if they want help.

Very good analyst. many people here made same prediction. The court still making headlines, but where they go from here?. if not somaliland, Puntland will also experience a down fall too because a different type "indhacade" mafia emerged the cost others. Samatar needed to go far and suggest a solution.

No Criticism, AAMIIN. Before the court rise, where all these pationated poeple have been? The analyses are wrong and feeling are strong. they are more like fans of football team. The court are still very good position to make peace with the other side. They had four good months but the future is bleak. The court still is local, they never make transition from local to national level. SHEIK Shariif tried his part, when he talked about the return of property But Afgooye, just outside moqdisho, still rule a friendly warlod and the court not responding the local people asking for justice, the port is close with internal disagreement and the move to Gaalkacayo complicated the court agenda. As I mentioned many times before, it is very clear the court will stay local. But the question is, will the court maintain controll moqdisho for long time to come. The hope of TNG taking controll the country is dissapearing, it is better for people of moqdisho to have one ruler.

We are muslims and we welcome the court. We suffered a lot in past and present. we are asking the court to rescue us. We demanding the court to show up here. simply you cannot resist. It is first time people in Afgooye and Baraawe are demanding their muslim rights since the begining of the court revolution. People are arrested both Afgooye and Baraawe. will Indhacade Group give up his domination for the powerless? if this happen, this could be the most remarkable event after moqdisho liberation. Very intresting Maamulka Degmada Afgooye oo maanta Xabsiga u taxaabay odayaal iyo Dhalinyaro sameynayey kulan ay ku taageerayaan maxaakiimta Sida uu xaqiijieyey Gudoomiye ku xigeenkii hore ee Degmada Afgooye C/laahi Xasan Cabdi waxaa maanta xabsiga loo taxaabay dhalinyaro iyo odayaal ka qeybqaadaneyey kulan ay ku soo dhaweynayaan maxaakiimta islaamka, si looga wareejiyo dhibaatooyinka ka taagan deegaanadooda. C/laahi Xasan Cabdi waxa uu sheegay falkaasi lagu xeray Ragaasi in uu ka dambeeyey Gudoomiyaha Degmada Xuseen Weheliye Cirfo oo uu ku eedeeyey in uu yahay nin doonayo in uu si adoonsi ah ku sii heysto dadka Degmada Afgooye, waxa una ku cel celiyey in hada dadkaasi ay yihiin kuwo ka koray silicii ay ku noolaayeen waa sida uu hadalka u dhigaye isaga oo ugu baaqay Maxaakiimta in ay deg deg uga soo gaaraan. Mas’uulkaasi waxa uu sheegay in ay 16-kii sano ee la soo dhaafay ay ka dhaceen falal ka baxsan Bani’aadanimada, isaga oo tilmaamay mar hadii kacdoon uu ka dhacay Muqdisho iyana ay doonayaan in Maxaakiimta ay ku soo dhaweeyeen si ayuu yiri looga baxo dhibaatada mudada dheer taagneyd. Waxaan diyaar ula nahay Maxaakiimta in aan dhaqaale iyo dhiigba u hurna, ee hanaga soo gaarto sida ay dhibaatada uga dul qaadeen dadka Muqdisho ayuu yiri mas’uulkaasi, oo intaasi raaciyey in dadka ku dhaqan degmada Afgooye ay yihiin kuwo aad u jecel kitaabka alle. Mar aan isku daynay in aan xiriir la sameyno gudoomiyaha Degmada Afgooye Xuseen Wehliye Xirfo ayey inoo suurto gali weyday in aan wax ka weydiino eedeymahan loo soo jeediyey, hase yeeshee waxaa muuqata in Gobalka Sh/Hoose uu ka bilowday kacdoon ay shacabka ku nool deegaanadaasi ay ku doonayaan in ay ku tuuraan Maamulada ka taliya deegaanadooda.