I understand he has been led on, thinking that he could have his party elected and within a year run for President. But this was not according to the original timetable where first the Presidential would take place and then the political parties, which would have meant he would have anyway waited years to get to the Presidency and now that both elections are taking place simultaneously one is back to that same schedule with a delay. So his objections at this stage are not even legally or politically justifiable. He should have complained last year when the elections for the Presidency were being extended without any justification, and messing up the complete political machine incl delaying the politics parties for another two years. Furthermore, it seems he is so focussed on the Presidency that he is forgetting that his party has an actual good chance of getting elected to become part of the party system. He came this far, and thus should focus on getting his party elected and pushing Kulmiye and UCID out of the system who both fear his party. But it seems he is being incited or letting himself to be detracted, in order for him to throw away the baby with the bathwater. Not very smart

Yes, and logic would dictate that one replaces majority of the senior officials and advisors since the complete and utter political failures on all fronts. But for some reason one hasn’t fired a single of the officials, except for the Minister of Sports who got replaced.

What we have been seeing in the last months are rather the effects, the causation started much earlier with the assumptions, calculations and actions that have shaped and driven SL governments directions over the last years which have come to a blown not caused but rather ignited by the SSC uprising. And the main factor in this causality I would say is the following wrong assumption one has made; The social contract on which Somaliland governments authority and stability is outdated, as the government is now all powerfully and can control the country, and does not need to strive towards inclusion and equity between the clans. And also along this line of thinking one assumed that SSC community can’t go nowhere as they don’t want to join Puntland and can’t become a federal state, and with military force you can keep control of the region, and thus there is no need to give special consideration and enter in to a political agreement with the community. Remember on the 8th January 2018 when Somaliland forces took control of Tukaraq and thereby reaching the ‘border’, well this was just a month after this government took office, and this further reinforced that military force was sufficient to control region and there is no need for a genuine political agreement with the community. So this thinking started much earlier and were expressed in all actions of the regime, while the patience expressed by the people and different communities, was not taken at face value but rather seen as a reinforcement of the own assumptions, thinking, further confirming the above mentioned narratives. And it’s also this self constructed false belief of the own power that led to further elite capture in the economy, nepotism, oligopolisation and thus concentration of wealth in the hands of few. Further leading to loss of trust, economic stagnation and political/communal polarisation, of which we seeing now the full extends.

How did it go so wrong in 9 months? I remember Galbeedi saying Sool will be a frozen conflict. There are several apparent things now: GX lacks sophisticated leaders. This is unfortunate considering this community has produced so many in the past. Jeegaanta will take the path that will help keep their ill-gotten riches as stated by Galbeedi. Geelle and HSM bet on the wrong horse and are recalibrating their moves. Puntland has became a persistent annoyance that won't roll over. Sool surprised everyone, even military leadership to be honest. The attack on Maraaga and Goocajade was supposed to last weeks and produce many casualties on either side. Despite all the faano after SL's defeat, the commanders expected a long battle. Reer Awdal were astonished at the illusion of military might and lack of political competency in Somaliland. They now have decided to determine their own future within Somalia. Muse is amassing militias in Oog, but mistrust is growing considering the persistent conflict in Ceelweyn and the new conflict in Cali Saahid. The Garaads have also kept their word. They have no desire to march into another's clan territory. They are settling for something akin to Galkacayo where the agreement between Aidid and Abdullahi held for decades, not ideal but it ensured peace apart some skirmishes every now and then.

The plan is not clear, but Omar Geelle is worried what could happen if the project was disintegrated. On the other hand the two jeegaan want to preserve their businesses , trade deals and everything else and buy time. HJ accepted the possible narrative that if the war among the Habro continues from Gacan LIbaax, the next bullet could be fired within Hargeisa.. They are the richest clan now. Not only the business people like Dahabshiil and Indha deero, even the richest politicians in Hargeisa are Hersi Gaab and Ina Hashi. The Sand Dwellers and some HY clans based in Hargeisa doesn't want any war within Hargeisa no matter what, but if the conflict continues it could take on the wrong turn. The killing of 10 RRU officers had shaken Biixi and the HJ groups. If the war heats up, the rebels could cut Burco from Hargeisa and Berbera from Hargeisa. HJ will be a by standers who could lose a lot. You and I know that in Somaliland most of the import and trade monopolies are controlled by Jeegaan and those who will lose is them, so they decided to make a deal that the GX can't refuse. THey told them " Cidna idinlama tartamayso". I don't know how that could happen. To rule you have to win the election, that means Mohamed Kaahin and Kulmiye candidates have to stand down. It is complicated. I could tell you that a well placed guy who is based in Halane told me last month that after Omar Geelle complicated the rapprochement of Abiy to make a deal between Biixi and Farmaajo, the Ethiopian premier changed course and agreed a transition plan with Waddani chairman Cirro. This information is 100% correct and Cirro was supposed to be the premier to manage the government while Farmaajo had agreed to be ceremonial. The TPLF war delayed the plan and Farmaajo was asked to add his rule two more years which was thawrted by HAG and Puntland leaders. After Biixi found out the deal, he made a move and rather than hold the presidential elections on time, tried to weaken Waddani and hold party elections instead. Since Djibouti intelligence and others are aware of this they are probably trying to move before a GX leadership takes over in December 2024.Furthermore, if the plan is to give power, why not prepare in 6 months and transfer power to the elected government. Omar Geelle is planning to do his power transfer to Mogadishu before things change by either bringing the wrong people to power or disintegrate. That deal in Mogadishu supplanted by the marriage of mob in Djibouti is still on. THe new Awdal governor who is agitating against us is brought by Geelle himself. One other thing I have learned in Somali political tradition is clans do not open the door for others for fear of losing influence, unless you are insignificant enitity. That is what I heard. Now Mr. Carafaat, tell us the plan to transfer power to GX. I know lately the GX is flexing their muscle and calling to defend the project. Even their tunes in social media has changed, but for us Awdal State movement nothing has changed and we want out of this fake project.