It should come as no suprised that some in XX & Co camp are contemplating these days to succumb further slicing up things. Narrowing ‘Jamhuuriyadii’ down to an even a smaller axis of Gebiley - Berbera.

I think the thinking justifying the current revision, is to create an enforced unified leadership that expands its foothold in South-Central Somalia and push back on AS, and deal with issues of devolution in a later stage when the country is on a equal footing of access and security. Not saying I agree personally with this rationale, but that arguments can be made to justify the current discourse.

Perhaps a fitting lecture in this time of ‘ina yareeya iyo aan kala tagno’.

Adopting a state structure, while there is no consensus and no trust (between clans and towards the state) and making differing assumptions and perspectives of the current state of things and how they ought to be. I belief this is what happened in 2004 and again 2024.

The initial thinking and assumption was that the Federal government, thus the centre l, would lead and set the tone on state building,social contract enforcement and management of public goods and that the regions would follow suit. But it has come clear that this is not the case, and the centre is actually emulating the periphery, thus meaning that any change for meaningful impact would need to come from both the periphery and centre simultaneously.

Ethiopia is the real winner here, it turned the tables around on the countries it was actually dependent on their ports, now competing with eachother for the cheap.

If Mogadishu is serieus they can stop Ethiopian Airlines easily as the airline is liable according to international air transport laws which Ethiopia is party to.

Naah, it wasn’t the cambuulo nor the cambaro’s, but VIP treatment, bullet proof iyo igu sawir in a suit that knocked Galbeedi over(for now atleast).

Did Ethiopia just appoint a Somali deputy PM?

Puntland’s objections are based on rational political calculations, and it seems to have actual political wants it desires to achieve. Just Look at their press statement, look at their spokesperson and press conference and compare that with Somalilands. Where Somaliland on the other hand has been repeating the same emotional rhetoric and rants for the last three decades, further fueled by wa la na ‘xumeeyay’ iyo wa la ii ‘xaasidiyaa’. Just look at your own post, you see something you don’t understand and jump to the usual emotional suspicion, instead of making an actual rational analysis of what is going on and come with political directions or pathways that supersede the usual elementary egotistic instincts of, ‘wa go’ay’, ‘wa baxay’, ‘wa ka fiicanahay’, ‘wa ka duwanahay’. I am sure if Puntland folks were in the position of where Somaliland is, they would have already gained recognition a longtime ago, as they know how to play the political game. Puntland played the game quite well, they managed to convince Somali’s to adopt federalism two decades ago way before others to only realize now what they actually have subscribed to. That’s politics, mon ami.

The Africans for Trump movement has taken off.

Xaaji, let us for a moment follow this logic and dissect, if SSC-Khaatuma is a threat to Somaliland(incl its future and its aspiration) as you put it. 1. Physical Threat; SSC-Khaatuma has so far abided by its intention to stay within their clan borders and have proven they are in no way a threat to lands of neighbouring clans and people. So we can conclude SSC-Khaatuma is in noway a physically threat to the people of Somaliland. 2. State Threat; Las anod was controlled for nearly 15 years by Somaliland, and even SL controlling Tukaraq the least 6 years did not bring Somalilands political aspirations (recongnition) closer or more viable. 4. Socio-Political threat; SSC-Khaatuma community hardly played a role in the socio-political make up of the Somaliland authorities, as Somaliland has been quite a western SL or D*** dominated affair. SSC-Khaatuma going it’s on way doesn’t have any impact on the dynamics, inter-clan and socio-political balance in Somaliland, we can conclude that the current SL tribulations preceded the conflict in Las Anod last year. And there we’re already 4 jabhads (Wabeye, Awale, Caare, etc) established in SL even before SSC uprising. 5. Power threat; Loosing face and power (military and politically) is the main threat here. But the most mighty powers loose wars, and for what they loose in military face they compensate through political maturity by moving on from the conflict and seeking political ways to reassert their power and influence. Somalilands power and face were never based on military power, but on its socio-political ability and power to seek conflict resolution, mediation and compromises and play the long game and it’s not the first time SL military was chased out of certain areas. Loosing military face wise happened before to SL and also happens to the most power countries, but they make sure to compensate and install their political credibility, which is far more important for a country then its military prowess. Somaliland lost military because of SSC-Khaatuma, but politically it’s (risking) loosing solely of its own doing and certainly will loose all political credibility and ability if it chooses to attack SSC-Khaatuma in their own native lands. And loosing political credibility is the recipe for completely loosing internal and external trust, cohesion and confidence which certainly will So now, taking to account all this following the rationele of threat, do you still assess that SSC-Khaatuma to be a threat to SL? And if so how?

Meelna kama banaana dad Muslim ah gurigooda jooga, deegaankoodi ku sugan ina dagaal loogu hanjabo ama lagu qaado, Siiba yada oo bil Ramadan tahay. Hadii SL dagaal nocaas ee qaado, wexe dad badan ku khasbisaa iney kala doortaan xaqa iyo xaq darada.

Oo ma waxa leedahay sax iyo khalad ma kala jirto oo ma kala garan karno, oo wa ku fasax ina umada dagaal xaqdaro ah galisid oo dad deegaankoodi jooga weerartid, Fazahaad iyo kala kuukhinta dadka sii wadid

Niyoow Ilaahay ma ka baqatid, dagaalkii hore xaqdarada wax kamaad Baran, ee hubka iyo ciidankaga la idin ka furtay. ilaahayna ogol Kama aha, anaguna ogol Kama nihin. Maanta ma jiro ciidan u dagaalimiya oo u dhimaniya hogaan aan dan ka leheen oo ku mashquulsan boob, ganacsi ka dhigtay dowladnimadii yaga oo isku taxay darajooyin military frontkana ka ordiya. Marka iska faataxeyso oo ku duceyso wax sax ah.

I don’t see how waging another war on Las Anod and getting a fake aqoonsi paper from Abiy would get Biixi re-elected, or would ever remedy the colossal damage inflicted on the social contract of Somaliland.

Why the fear and trembling, t’s just an individual and his viewpoint.

No comment

Gacanta wax ku siisa inta qaniintay, ayaa leedahay muxuu la qeyliniyaa toloow Ya qaniinay.

He is a threat to regime, because he is close with them, knows them personally, their secrets, travel with Djibouti passports, and has also many agents inside government and also private sector ows quite some dues to Djibouti.

IOG feeling betrayed and backstabbed, could be quite a more dangerous foe to the Somaliland regime.

Do they realize that of all of their bank accounts can be freezes and confiscated? Even without a ICC warrant, a simple US state court can even freeze their accounts, there is no such thing as impunity for supporting crimes against humanities.

IOG side of this story, quite intriguing.

It seems the real land deal with the Habesha’s isn’t about a recongnition but military muscles to take revenge.

Jeegaan should stay around even if it’s means to rob votes, as they killed the social contract and trust Somaliland was based on it’s only fair they bury it as well. Kolay wee dileen, kafantiina ha u tolaan.