I don’t see how waging another war on Las Anod and getting a fake aqoonsi paper from Abiy would get Biixi re-elected, or would ever remedy the colossal damage inflicted on the social contract of Somaliland.
He is a threat to regime, because he is close with them, knows them personally, their secrets, travel with Djibouti passports, and has also many agents inside government and also private sector ows quite some dues to Djibouti.
Do they realize that of all of their bank accounts can be freezes and confiscated? Even without a ICC warrant, a simple US state court can even freeze their accounts, there is no such thing as impunity for supporting crimes against humanities.
Jeegaan should stay around even if it’s means to rob votes, as they killed the social contract and trust Somaliland was based on it’s only fair they bury it as well.
Kolay wee dileen, kafantiina ha u tolaan.
I don’t think the west can sufficiently understand this sort of complexity and fluidity in order to play a constructive role. So option nr 1 seems highly unlikely to materialise, which leaves us option 2 or 3, a failed Ethiopia or an Ethiopia reconquered by highland Xabashas. But I don’t see how highlanders would reassert their influence in the current Addis overrun by Oromo’s, surrounded by Oromo’s, and with an Oromo military elites in power.
Even without any legality being there and ICJ striking down the agreement the second Somalia goes to the court, I fear that for the Somaliland regime this is outweigh by the the business prospectives of the deal and presenting a quick win for the electoral before the elections, irrelevant of the end result on its recognition.
I hope your right.
P.S. But having no trust whatsoever in the regime and it’s Ethiopian advisors, this well could be a deflection strategy of Ethiopia to make everyone think that they’re walking away from signing the MoU, while they then turn around and sign it in the coming time. See the above video with the Somaliland committee continuing its work in preparation of the deal.
From the perspective of politicians you would have been right, but from a businessman’s point of view, nothing is more important than a ‘mashruuc’.
‘Somaliland oo sahamineysa goobtii ay Ethiopia saldhig ka dhigan lahayd’.