Arafaat

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Everything posted by Arafaat

  1. Deni is not serieuz about talks, otherwise he would enter that stage much earlier before filling Garowe with militias and escalating things to this extend.
  2. Che, I wouldn’t bet on the Awdal folks, chances of Burco or Berbera becoming a state is more likely than expecting Borama to make a significant move.
  3. Doesn’t matter how much $ is spend to get out of those few members from Congres, Biden will loose the election because of this stand on the issue.
  4. Gooni wa ku raacsanahay rayigiisa maadama; - kow) xalka waqooyi aan laga raadin koonfur, maadama koonfur dhib kale mashquuliniso ma hayaan xalka waqooyi, -labo) reer waqooyi yaga ayaa isku fahmiya siyasada gudaheeda ka jirto oo siyasiinta xamar jooga si fiican uma daraasi karaan Taas kale, -sadex) reer waqooyi wexe awood iyo micno u sameeniyaan xamar iyo Somalida guud ahaan yaga oo wada socda, -afar) kolay way heshiiniyaan , marka iminka ha iska heshiiyaan, -shan) cadiifadaha, xamasadaha iyo mawjadaha ka jira waqooyi ka duwan yihiin kuwa ka jira koonfur. Marka iney waqooyi heshiiyaan gudahooda, oo iska dhaafaan sheekooyinka Ir** Sam** iyo ya Dar***, oo dantooda ka wada had laan. Wa rayi macquul ah runtii
  5. Somalia, IMF reach preliminary deal on $100 mln in new funding | Reuters WWW.REUTERS.COM International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff on Wednesday reached a preliminary agreement with Somalia that will allow for the release of $100...
  6. With Saudi and Gulf silence, one might wonder if Iran is on a trajectory to becoming the moral and political compass for Muslims worldwide?
  7. I understand your points and they are all valid, but not 3 months before the end of the Presidential mandate. It doesn’t seem an opportune moment to be setting up a whole electoral system, let alone agree on it with all the stakeholders involved (Electoral commission, Parliament, Executive, etc) let alone the political parties.
  8. Irrelevant of the populist support. Deni wasn’t elect by the people but was elected through the Issims system and the MPs they have selected, specially because his term has ended. But coming up with this hastily initiative in the last months of his mandate, while it’s even practically impossible to organize elections in 3 months time, doesn’t give confidence. He could have prepared the elections during the first years of his mandate and avoided this political crisis, as the Issims have also pointed out that a next leadership should commit to organise elections early on in their mandate.
  9. Isimada are not the cause of the problem, they only came in to picture when compelled to mediate in dispute that turned in to an open conflict. The cause of the problem is that PL leaderships unrealistic last minute planning of ‘one-man, one vote’ elections, that leads one to perceive effort as insincere. Even the Electoral time table published last week, showed that the electoral regulations were not even in place, while 3 months left before election date.
  10. You become aware of something when you care, and one is unaware of issues you don’t see in your interest and thus ignore. And by default the government is complacent as they claim authority, legitimacy and power making them de facto responsible. And the main goal or mandate given to them is to expand legitimacy of the government amongst their people, and not all sorts of commercial projects
  11. Somalilands political discourse is in nobody’s interest, and is far away removed from inclusivity, fairness nor provides a sensible future pathways for the youth in Borama, Baki or Burco, as elites are pre-occupied with holding on to power and self enrichment. And there seems to be a consensus that the current discourse isn’t sustainable. The question arising and that needs to be asked and discussed is, what is then the alternative solution or direction for the people in Somaliland? You say divide the region along clan lines, let every sub-clan rule themselves under Mogadishu. And I think there are other and better pathways possible, but as Somali’s we are hardwired and jump immediately from one bandwagon to another extreme without considering all the options, possibilities and risks, which at the same time makes any debate or consideration of alternative politics impossible as one has already jumped to a conclusion which becomes a ‘fait accompli’. My question to you is, in order to construct when do you have to deconstruct and when do you have to reconstruct?
  12. Inkaarta Somalida heysata waxa weeyaan dadka amuusaan ee ka xishooda qabyalad iyo qori ayee dulmiyaan. Kuwa qori iyo fawda lasoo istaaga uun ayee maqlaan oo tix galiyaan.
  13. I want to share a little anecdote with you about the first time I met someone from Awdal. The was back in 2004 when I met this girl, who only came to Europe few years earlier. And as all the Somali kids were sharing their piece of war and refugee stories, she couldn't relate to all those stories and said she didn't understand what others were talking about and she shared that she came from a town (Borama) never seen war, fighting nor had to flee, and had enjoyed education and came straight to Europe, without going through any of the refugee camps in Ethiopia and Kenya. I was young didn't know the different regions but her story stuck with me, as I knew pretty much that all the Somali kids had seen times of fear, suffering, conflict and displacements from their homes and was surprised to hear that a Somali kid coming from the country without those kind of experiences. Point of the story, don't compare Awdal's geographical fate and trajectory (past and future) with others and put it in the unique perspective that it deserves.
  14. Galbeedi, I also share your sentiments on the futility of Somalia's so called Federal States and the dominating political tendencies in the different clans. However, aren't you making the same mistakes in your political calculations as the Habro politics have made that you have continuously pointed out. For example, you are so focussed on moving Awdal away from Somaliland that you are not seeing other potentials risks and dangers in your foreseen pathways, as Somaliland has done by thinking their only adverseries were Somalia and not seeing all the risks and consequences of its trajectory. Secondly, what makes you think Ethiopia will recongnise Awdal as a separate region equal to Jigjiga and maintain its population demographics as it is? And thirdly, you are so diamensionly thinking in clan, but at the same time not taking in to account that other clans and sub-clans in Awdal might not share your narrow clan viewed political aspirations, specially the sub-clan whose native regions runs along the coast from Zeila all the way to Lughaya? I think you should count your blessings and be grateful for all that you have, that every other Somali community could only dream of. Be grateful that you are from a region that has been largely spared from the wars, conflicts, be grateful that you from a community that lives in peace with its neighboring communities, be grateful that your families, community and clan have not seen displacement nor were uprooted from their homes, be thankful for having political leaders that are wise and sensible and forth thinking, be grateful that your nieces and nephews have enjoyed uninterrupted education over the last decades and belong now to the most literate and educated Somalis. Say Alhamdullilah and count your blessings brother, for what you think isn't good might actually be good for you, and what you think is good that others have might be more of a curse then you are aware off.
  15. Abdiqadir Jirde, one of the few last sensible politicians in Somaliland.
  16. Galbeedi, everyone knows that Ethiopia’s current eyes are on Assab, and strategicly it makes sense. But if Eritrea becomes subjugated to Ethiopia, what do you think this could mean for the region, Djibouti and Somaliland and Ethiopia's further aspirations. Listen here to Abdiqadir Jirde talk about Ethiopia's historic aspiration for coastal areas, from 12.48min on. Personally I do hope for a more voluntrary and gradual process of political and economic integration of the Horn of Africa countries, but this far removed from the Empire aspirations and talk of annexation.
  17. This is quite strategic, also getting Afar on board gives Ethiopia quite some strategic leverages in the broader region, incl Djibouti.
  18. Yes, Somaliland politicians have miscalculated things in their political narratives and thinking, and Abiys remark have led to a political shock wave and fierce debate. I don’t think Ethiopia will come anytime soon to Zeila or any coastal areas in Somaliland. Besides area between border and Zeila is highly mountainous, making movement very difficult and warfare easier for defending side. Also any attempts to take coastal areas will definitely trigger a United front, supported by Eritrea, Djibouti and perhaps even Egypt. But nevertheless, the sheer possibility being raised, and Ethiopian PM contemplating on this has already caused a political shock wave.
  19. Kudos to Puntland women politicians for rocking the boat.
  20. An Oromo empire and their political cohesion is only feasible in hostile environs and conflicts with neighbours, so perhaps their leaders want to trigger that structural hostile fault lines with neighbours as a way to ensure that strong and United Oromo nation.
  21. I assume that this is discussed under some sort of devolution reform or re-organisation of lower levels of governance. Moving from provincial regions to counties, as Kenya has done, and that also other regions would be split in to sub-regions and not only Somali region? Either way, for the Somalis this would be a disaster as no lower level sub-regions could ever maintain or advocate for the socio, cultural and identity concerns that are distinct for the Somali nation in Ethiopia. I think some clans might welcome the proposition, as they have felt abused and mistreated initially under Abdi Ileey and now many might feel marginalised under O-folks bickering and competition. Under O-folks this plan should trigger alarm bells as they have the most to loose and would make it easier to counter their political influence in smaller regional units, even though some narrrow thinkers might look at the ‘state’ fragmentation in Somalia as an example to emulate, and think this plan would be in their benefit. The Somali region really needs to pre-emptively counter this. I think we said before that Cagjar needs to create or support space that gives academics, thinkers and progressive leaders (independent and outside of the party and state structures) a platform to discuss, reflect and strategize on the future of the region and Somali people in Ethiopia. This would need to have a strong and divers O-folk contingency with other clans also represented, irrelevant of their political association and opposition views. Perhaps this plan for fragmentation of the Somali nation might be the right impetus or prequisite for such a discourse for thinkers inside and abroad to concern themselves more with the future of the region.
  22. Che, as SOLs Ethiopian whisperer or Expert, how would different Ethiopian communities stand if the choice was between fighting, annexing and gaining sea access if choice is between Eritrea vs Somali Lands. Do you think Oromos would be more inclined for gaining access to the Sea in Somali Lands rather then Eritrea, and how about Tigray and Amhara’s? I know a lot of factors would play a role, but just curious to understand where communal motivations and potential drivers lay in terms of regions.