Baidoa is currently very stable, peaceful and there has been quite some investment in infrastructure (roads, drainages, sidewalks). What I found quite apparent was the complete absence of local political leaders, I understand that Laftagareen won’t allow any of the opposition leaders to set foot in the region, Is that true?

No Qaraar here, just stating the facts.Congratulations to SSC. If you would ask me, I think SSC should claim the role and position to appoint all the SL MPs/Senators in next elections and perhaps even organise their elections in Las Anod instead of Mogadishu, would also be very strategical of the FGS to make Las Anod the unionist capital of the North and give that leverage to SSC. But I don’t think many would grasp that sort of politics, as thinking is reduced to single cell clan thinking.

Naah, don’t think so. They are twins joined at the hip sharing vital organs, any attempts of separating the twins would mean the end life of governance. For over 130 years, both sub-clans have been fully part and parcel of the same governing administration (Colonial, Somali State, Somaliland), where one goes the other goes. But one can always oppose or start a rebel, as that is inherent to the nature of Somali politics.

You’re saying Abiy is from tolka?

It’s not recognition as a Federal Member State, but as an ad-interim administration (maamul ku-meel gaadh ah) which makes sense to recognize and work with the local realities.

Your intending or hoping for Puntland to absorb SSC?

Galbeedi, I wasn’t intending to respond, but as you seem quite serieus and adamant on your initial assertion, and the incorrectness of your assumptions here, you have compelled to respond. A. The Zeila Ports main trade linkages were with Yemen which have come to halt since the war in Yemen, in which the country faced a maritime blockade that stopped all trade and boats movement between Zeila and Yemen. This blockade went even as far as opening fire on the boats from Zeila that dared to make the crossing, even Yemeni fisherman being targeted. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/17/world/middleeast/yemen-fishing-boats-saudi.html Possible recommendation would be to start lobbying(via different channels like Hargeisa, Mogadishu, IGAD, etc) to lobby the Saudis to allow trade with Zeila and Yemen to re-open. It could have a good chance of succeeding, specially now in org Saudi Arabia wanting the war to end and working on a peace initiative in Yemen, it’s more likely for them to accept resumption of maritime linkages specially to Zeila that poses little threat in suppling weapons of any kind. B. Somaliland wants to develop the Port as it’s good for its own tax revenues, and don’t assume that it has any sort of deal that prevents developing the Zeila sport. Just like Maydh Port has recently been constructed in SL, and Garacad in Puntland, and nothing would stop it or justify preventing Zeila to develop. The issue challenging the Port of Zeila more so then other Ports, is the development of the road that is quite costly as its going through very rough terrain (mountainous, swamps like and desert like, all the same time) increasing the cost of construction of the road for which already an assessment has been made by Somaliland. Now to make trade with Ethiopia possible, one would need to seek investments specially for the road as that would be in the hundreds of millions. Possible action, develop small group of technical and project experts (e.g. like Bayle, ex Afdb) to develop a good business case and incl investment plan, and focus on getting support from Ethiopia/Somalia in AfDB to finance or alternatively Islamic Dev Bank. These kind of investments are demand driven, so don’t expect that initiative has to always come from the investor side. But keep in mind nobody will invest if the business case isn’t there, e.g. trade with Yemen, Fish production and trade, opportunities and willingness Ethiopian trade linkages, as example. C. If Ethiopia’s intention would be purely to access and lease a Port for commercial purposes, they could have taken the initiative to initiative such a process with Somaliland authorities that has also eagerly welcomed any Ethiopian interest. Next to Ethiopia having plenty of other options in the region to lease, and could even restart using Massawe if the intention is purely commercial. But it seems Abiy’s purpose isn’t only a commercial aim but also a military and political as well. Look at the swift respond from Asmara on the statement, as one has earlier indicated to wanting to become a regional Maritime and Navy power, not on leased ports but rather annexed stretches of coast. And it looks likely that one thinks an annexation would be without impunity, given the shifting international order and trend of ‘regional powers’ violating sovereignties of countries, e.g. Russia in Ukraine, China in South China Sea, India with Kashmir, Azerbaijan with Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey in Syria, Gulf in Yemen, etc. Action; Don’t for a second entertain the idea of Awdal becoming part of Ethiopia or willingness to be annexed, as a way of seeking a position or leverage as the consequences could be fatal for the same community you are seeking positive development for. Just inquire with your Somali-Ethiopian cousins on the other side in Teferi Ber, Dembel, Lafaciise and Shinile, what they think of Awdal to become co-emerged in Ethiopia, and while you at it also inquire with Prof.Saleebaan on the history of the communities rebellion against Ethiopia with the Horyaal rebels and the long way one has come since in thinking, and that you want a free and Democratic Awdal to join Ethiopia today. D. You mentioned Kismayo Port and foreign troops. But perhaps you are not aware but there are no Kenyan civilians in Kismayo intending to settle there, have brought their families to Somalia nor is the country known for intending population displacement. While on the contrary Borama and Hargeysa are already quit filled with Ethiopians who have settled there, so think of what this would mean for future demographical composition in Zeila and Awdal, if your intention of ‘joining’ Ethiopia as its newest ‘Kilinka’ state would materialize? Personally I am in no way against regional integration, divers urban areas, but I am sure you would cry foul when socio-cultural and demographic shifts take place in your native region.

It’s better for the community to take the initiative for developing and promoting the investment case, rather then awaiting initiative from external actors, who would always priorities own agenda and wouldn’t necessary take local interest in to account.

Far from that, main issue and drivers are more economic hence why the press statement emphasized economic development of the Zeila Port and linkages with Ethiopia. While Abiy’s speech is very much political and concerning as he isn’t talking about investment and access to a Port but rather to reorganize the regional order for Ethiopia to ‘annex’ coastal areas.

It’s from the Awdal Movement. You guys still don’t understand it and Galbeedi isn’t telling the full story and intentions behind it.

Garowe elites might played a role in the ignition of the simmering crisis, but think issue is bigger then personalities involved and very much a crisis of the social contract and political arrangements, of which Puntland is a limit test for other states in Somalia. And Federal Government of Somalia better keep a close check on developments without choosing sides but maintaining a third party role, perhaps have someone in Garowe as observer and dedicate a team of the FGS Executive and Parliament to monitor things. As a blown-out crisis in Puntland could tear down the legitimacy of the federal government itself and spell out similar crisis in other regions, which could lead to both Mogadishu and regional capitals becoming engulfed in political elites infighting leading to collapse of the already fragile and weak Somali State. AS is only one of the factors in the equation preventing Somali state building, the other is political elites power competition and infighting for power without having a last resort for mediation and dispute solving. And the political crisis in Puntland may perhaps be the first ’constitutional crisis’ on state level, in which dispute is about the basic rules of the social contract (the constitution).

Che, It seems Deni is continuing on a path fraught with danger and only 3 months left of his term and with the electoral issues and concerns regarding credibility raised earlier not being addressed. How do you think this will unfold?

All leaders make mistakes for they are human, and some make more mistakes then others, however what distinguishes good leaders is that they recognise their mistakes and don’t persist in their original decisions if they turned out to be poor one. And I think the SL leaders still have a chance to correct things and change course, if they start thinking as political leaders and put their ‘militarised ego’ aside.

Not only that, but a deeper political crisis has been simmering for a while in Puntland which has become a big mission impossible to solve and to reform. At It’s core Puntland is based on the notion that its politics equates =H*** clan unity, resolving and reforming the system tended to be impossible without jeopardising the clan unity and peace. But SSC has shown you can have =H*** clan unity but it doesn’t equate to Puntland politics, leading to the the structural crisis of system to surface and needing to be resolved politically without relying on clan leaders and clan unity to dempen or conceal the political need to reflect the inner core of its politics.

Awdal politicians are running away or abducting the agenda of AUN Ali Khaliif Galeydhs to open up the Somaliland constitution to reflect political agreement with Khaatuma/SSC and shared ownership. Awdal was part and parcel of SL establishment and what purpose would it have now when SSC is gone and Muuse regime intending to further wage war. This is again putting the horse before the cart, you first have a dialogue and agreement on the social contract and then you embed whatever is agreed in any base document (constitution). Opening up the constitution now would be schizophrenics and defeat the purpose of why it was raised in the first time at all.

SSC is a game changer throughout, not only for Somaliland but also for Puntland and Federalism at large I expect it to force or ignite serieus self reflections and difficult pathways of change. You cant have possibly expected status quo in Puntland to remain, with SSC integrating in Puntland, participating in elections while electing a VP in Puntland, would practically making it another district under Puntland and defeating the purpose of the united SSC clan under a political platform. Puntland will have to face the music and deal with its own self created political composition without SSC. Furthermore, also for the federalist Somalia SSC might become the antidote for its self entertained federalist psychosis, as it will seriously bring to the foreground the so far unaddressed elephant in the federalist living room, which is the issue of states, their definitions and demarcations.

How will this effect Ukraine?

He still has a chance, but needs to put his tower high ego aside that is blocking him from seeing potential political discourse. The pathway to the Presidency is no easy pathway, and specially in Somaliland it’s not a matter of being crowned by a kingmaker or special interest group as the Professor initially thought. He needs to build coalitions and make deals, and take risks. It’s not the same as Mogadishu where you can fly in from the States and be crowned a day later because you rubbed the right kingmakers, no he needs to work for it and let go of the idea of seeking approval and applauses for that will break him, as he has seen by now.

I understand he has been led on, thinking that he could have his party elected and within a year run for President. But this was not according to the original timetable where first the Presidential would take place and then the political parties, which would have meant he would have anyway waited years to get to the Presidency and now that both elections are taking place simultaneously one is back to that same schedule with a delay. So his objections at this stage are not even legally or politically justifiable. He should have complained last year when the elections for the Presidency were being extended without any justification, and messing up the complete political machine incl delaying the politics parties for another two years. Furthermore, it seems he is so focussed on the Presidency that he is forgetting that his party has an actual good chance of getting elected to become part of the party system. He came this far, and thus should focus on getting his party elected and pushing Kulmiye and UCID out of the system who both fear his party. But it seems he is being incited or letting himself to be detracted, in order for him to throw away the baby with the bathwater. Not very smart

https://www.facebook.com/GuuleedCunnaabi/videos/668975338517484/?app=fbl Galbeedi, Whats going on with the Professor?

I don’t think it’s the way to become a functioning state, expulsion of all sorts of groups from your territory is a one way ticket to becoming a Balkanised state involved in constant ethnic turmoil and conflict. Look at Kosovo and Serbia still engaged in conflict, even 20 years after separation. Also we are Africans next to tribes we have clans, surely the risk of inter-Oromo clan tensions for dominance might ignite once the devil of division, expulsion and entitlement has been let loose.

You will need to explain that one, Puntland as defender of the rule of law.

Yes, and logic would dictate that one replaces majority of the senior officials and advisors since the complete and utter political failures on all fronts. But for some reason one hasn’t fired a single of the officials, except for the Minister of Sports who got replaced.