Cabey Axmaro is walking the line the of amhara chauvanism. The brutal TPLF weyane , like it or not made a last ditch at famous 1985 Adwa conferance with the EPLF of how to handle the question of the of "Ethiopianism" and adpoted a ethno-centric based ideology. Ofcourse in those days every rebel group had to adopt a "marxist" outlok. The slick Meles choise marxist-leninist hoxaist line as a mirage for his TPLFS goal: either the dismantlement of Meneliks Ethiopia or a ethno-based Ethiopia that will never surrender to Amharas. Looking from a broader perspective from Somali viewpoint what Abey Ahmed is doing is actually silently supported by the amhara elite of addisabeba. Remember that that it is the Amhara -assimiated urbanised of Addis Abeba that form a majority in the capital and who have vast supremacy in the ethiopian adminstration in the capital. They are the technocats. In summary, Abey is pursuing "Itoobita Tikdem". The slogan of the Mengistu. The Amharas of Gondar and Bahridahr are not relevant. The analysis that Abey Ahmed is embracing oromo nationalism is flawed. 2 things dont add up. Being an oromo nationalist and desiring a national army and minimising the federal concept of Ethiopia. During the war he waged upon the Tigrayans the western media overlook the harsh measures that Abey Ahmed took against oromo armed militias. Something is fishy here. Galbeedi whats your insight? 1-Does it add up? Looking for an "ethiopian identity" that aka means amhara identity and a national army and minimising the federal concept of Ethiopia that gave the 30 oromos 30 years of breathing space to establish unieversaties and and a generation of ethnic concious oromo youth. The Somali factor. 2- We Somalis are gullable, emotionally driven people. While the Wahabi inspired itihad movement UWSLF accepted treason and big bearded "Sheikh Ibraahim Dhere" accepted the horrendous murder money of Weyane throgh Cabdi Iley the ONLF just gave up, Most rebel organisations create a political fraction that continues its natural right for freedom but they didnt have that political gymnastics. The communist kurds of Turkey made that political gymnastics. They created the HDP that gained 13% percent in Turkeys parliament and at the same time had close contacts with the many splinter groups of the communist seperatist kurdish seperatists whose number enemy 1 now is the islamic awakening of Turkish kurds. The Splinter groups is ideologicaly driven and mainly focuses on extreme kurdish seperatism and hatred of religion. This did not happen in Soomali-Galbeed. Make a breakway fraction that firmly continues with the struggle by rasing a new generation of pan somalism. 2B. What has really changed? The governnor is installed by Addis abeba as all previous were Sh Ibraahim Dheere, Cagjr have all embracing the idea of an "inclusive" Ethiopia that somalis would be an actor. They dont even understand that the ethiopian mindset or should I say Amhara mindset that somalis exist in the republic of Somalia. In conclusion Che and Makhir, Ethiopia is violitile. Abey Ahmed has been gone for FGS and given somalis some breathing space. At the same time his chooing the old track of the old order. This does not add up. Either the man is a conman trying to please everyone or he is what I said wolf in a sheep clothes. An Amhara in oromo clothing. If he is the first one mark my words. The guy will be gone in a year once he loses those who shed their blood for him. Mainly Oromos. Anyways Lets see how round 2 goes. But something odd is happening in Ethiopia

easy to beat the war drums, we all know these tribes have fought before, years ago and a century ago. For the sake of Ramadan, I wish that somali somaliland leadership understand that they can not force their secceonist agenda upon a tribe. Lets face the truth, somaliland is a tribal region. If Muuses tribe hates to be under the federal government why force other tribes? Why invoce a white man so called colonial deals he made with some bribed traditional leaders. To add historical evidence to the right cause of the people of somaliland, they fought the english, all somalis fought them. In conclusion. Stop beating the war drums, we have climate change going on in the somali peninsuala. The nomadic way of life is changing. People need clean water, education, they need instututions. The silent majority of the somalis in hargeysaa are deeply against this war. Saaxirka Muuse, the silent majority neeeds to action against this mad-max warlord who seems to live in the times of 80-ties. For gods sake, Ethiopia with diffirent ETHNICITITES fought a bloody war and made peace. When will we poor somali hungry nomads stop fighting?. Saaxir Muuse has to go.

Another meaningless tribal somali vs somali war, which one tribe wants to impose its whole "land" expirement despite rejecting others imposing soomaliweyn to them. What a bizarre world we are living in. Somalis busy killing each other while taking their wounded to Addis Abeba becouse of lack of basic medical services. Ilaahay ummada ha isku keeno dadka ha qabto this war lord Muse who seems to be living in the tribal 80-ties. By the way, this tit for tar war has going around for a 100, years, is not a new thing that these tribes engage in this blood shedding, whats new is that it is on a whole grand scale. I dare to say you will not find this in Baidoa or Barawa and in the fertile grounds of Somalia. Shedding blood is not something that is made easy. Reer waqooyiiga kulligooda dhan xamaasad ey ku socdaan, ( politics based on feelings). When the shrewd Haile Selassie was debating to in the UN claiming Somalia was ethiopian land pan-somalism flourished. They came to the south and had a meeting to Aaadan cadde and requested a quick union. Aadan Cadde who was educated and nourished politicaly pointly adviced in mild manner and posed the quick question "walaalayal ma is xambaarki karnaa". I do not recall the exact words but the meaning was "are you guys sure about this, maybe we need more adjust our adminstrations considering on the merging of our instutututions. A proud staunch somali nationalist answerd Aden Cadde and said "waan is naqaane soomali hadaan nahnee dee dhameey". In other words cut the bullshit and merge the union. This was some 70 years ago, sadly Islaanta whose husband was staunch pan-somalist bragged to the EU and injected herself into the shamefull dustbin of history by glorifying her colonial background by saying "I was british, I relinquished my britishness". I wonder how those words will be met by the thousands of derviches who out of gaalo-nacayb and not of tribal war, armed with spears went to war with the british armed with machine guns. 1/3 of Northerners died and in the South Shaykh Hasan Barsame of the Idrisiya Tariqa fought the italians and 2000 martys died in a single battle. The Qaadariya under Shayk Uweys al Barawi saw that this struggle would be long and instructed his diciplines to have pacifist struggle and established zawiyas that fed the orphaned, Even the bishop of the catholic church in Mogadishu wrote how hard missionaring among somalis were hard as what he called "the mohammedan scholars know our intentions and have established lodges". In conclusion, exactlt 100 years ago, thousands of somalis fought against the british and attained martyrdom. Now we are seeing Somalis fighting for keeping lines gaalo made. Magan Alle!

Ethiopia: At Least Four Killed at Adwa Victory Celebration Posted on March 2, 2023 by Gedab News in Gedab News 30 Gedab News, March 2, 2023: Today Ethiopia celebrated the 1896 victory of the Adwa battle fought against the Italian colonial army. At least four people lost their lives after the security officers fired live ammunition at the crowd in Addis Ababa while they celebrated the 127th Adwa Victory Day. This year’s celebration has more political significance and was celebrated with unusual fanfare. Usually, the day was mainly celebrated by WWII veterans, almost all of whom are dead Preparations for the 127th celebration of Adwa were underway for many weeks and included practice parades that today displayed the might of the Ethiopian armed forces. Armored vehicles and missile-carrying vehicles rolled in front of the guests while fighter jets roared above. This year the government limited the celebrations to the main venue at Meskel Square. Prime Minister Abiy didn’t attend the celebrations. However, many Addis Ababans, either by choice or in defiance of the government’s decision, flocked to the traditional celebration venue at Piazza neighborhood. Police have blocked streets that lead to Piazza. The unauthorized Piazza event was celebrated in front of the controversial Minelik statue that stands near the Giorgis church. An eyewitness told Gedab News, “it was not clear whether it was a protest-demonstration, or a celebration. Soon a clash with the police ensued.” Security officers reacted by firing teargas canisters and live bullets. At least four people have died in the incident including a student and a teacher. The toll of the killed and wounded is expected to be higher. For the last four years, Ethiopia was marred by civil wars caused by ethnic conflicts and rivalries. So far, the conflicts have resulted in the depletion of the country’s foreign currency reserve and has destroyed the infrastructure that it built over a three-decade period. In the last two years alone hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers were killed or wounded. More were displaced or fled to the neighboring countries.

Galbeedi made an assumption that americans would dictate terms in the horn-africa. His analysis of things are often correct but I wonder if he has smelled the coffe. The battle of Adwa and the celebration of it was a redline for Ethiopia. During the era of Haile Seleassie it was the prime celebration equal to our blessed day of liberation. Years of marginalisation but also 50 years of political activism has finally awakended the oromos. During the derg, even the oromos would in their millions with the national flag march to the statue of Meneliq. But the oromisation of Ethiopia has begun. The orthodox church has been dibided into an amhara and oromo one with the blessing of Abey Ahmed who is carefull not to alienate the oromo activists who paid with their blood remove the TPLF from power. THE OLF since its its founding branched out and the most succesfull one was the one with the philosophy to instead oromize Ethiopia and engage with the ruling elite The oromo professor Merera Gudina is without a doubt the turabi of Ethiopia today. Meles Zenawi was shrewd political and realized how dangerous this unarmed man with his ideas and even hijacked an yemeni airplance to capture him and freed him severe pressure. His long pacifist struggle with the clear agenda of historical revisionism is read today by oromo students and have been made obligtatory. He was the one who said "why should we as oromos celebrate and march to the statue of Menelik, the arch butcherer of oromors and who chopped of the hands of legs of oromo men and breats of oromo women"?. The guy is old now. He is not after power but he has leashed his hyeanas on of the people. What is highly remarkable and without a question of doubt is that thousands of oromos marched on the same day demanding the removal of stature while thousands of out-dated amharas marched proud expecting fellow "ethiopians" to celebrate with them. What is more remarkable and without a doubt is the political move that Abey Ahmed made. This is the first time an Ethiopian ruler abstains from actually attending the celebration. I have said it before and will say it again. Ethiopia is in full disintegration. While the TPLF are biding their time and simply and wisely choose to set the oromos free in order fire up the countrey is finally happening. While somali cland hatred has died down and somalis have finally understood that war does not solve any issues the next show down in Ethiopia will be between oromos and Amhara. Abey Ahmed gave Welkail to tigray and is engaging in getting political legitamacy from those he got power from, mainly the oromos. The project of the oromisaion of Ethiopia has begun and the process of marginalization of the Amhara has begun. If Abey Ahmed is not toppled the low level civil war ethiopia is engaged in will blow into a full civil war. The Amharas are arming themselves and the oromos. Poor somalis are disoriented what to do. Meles was indeed shrewd. He knew that creating a ethnic yugusloavia like countrey with ethnic borders is like sitting on pile of dymanites and enjoying a good cigar. Anyways Galbeedi, gone are the days of America dictating to internal somali issues to Ethiopia when Ethiopia today is engaged: 1- Ethiopia is in a civil war, it has just reached addis abeba. 2- The Rebel movements are armed and more armed since the 1980. The TPLF willingly left million of kalashnikovs and ammunition in oromiya. Their nemesis is not the oromos its the Amharas. 3- The Amharas are bent of toppling on Abey Ahmed and have tried 1 in failed coup to remove him. They are arming themselves. Abey Ahmed armed every man in Ethiopia to its teeth. In concusion. The international community has no will to engage in African wars any more. You heard Macrons revealing words today. While the whites want the whole world to be against Russia and engage in Ukraine Macrone refused to sanction the tutsi led Rwandan government. Munaafiqnamada cadaanka waa yaab. Saaxirka Afwerki is holding a few strings but even the eritreans are tired on him. He cant glew Ethiopia together forever and I have slight feeling that he does not want to see arrival of the amharas who sometimes have a bitter taste of letting of Eritrea. America can try dictate but Ethiopia is in a mess. Somalia and somalis have breating space for now. If Amxaaro return to power the old couch that Meles used to humilare rival somali factions with will come back. Our avid frequent flyer and the FGS of Soomaaliya needs use this time to get a grip on the Somali pshyche.

Galbeedi the analysis would have been good if Ethiopia was in the state of of the Ethiopia we knew. The days when the shrewd murderous Meles and his weyane would dictate to Somalis and sent invitation to somali factions to sit in his yellow couch. Those days are gone my friend. Ethiopia is in state of oromisation and dis-integration. The noble adwa celebration that Ethiopians, mainly amharas would amass to the statue of Menelik is long gone. I dont know if you received news but oromo activists after dividing the orthodox church into a oromo and amhara one refused to indulge in the adwa celebrations and 4 people died. Even Abey Ahmed in order to appease the growing power thirst of the oromos declined to come to the celebrations. Who would imagine that, an ethiopian ruler silently agreeing with that menelik was indeed a criminal who chopped of the breasts of oromos. He chose not to come to the amhara celebration. Meles and the TPLF did somalis a favours, by creating a yuguslavia scenario with pre-planned ethnic federation that have somewhat saved Somalis from the fury of a strong Amhara centric nationalistic ethiopia that even refused the existense of muslims in the lands of Habasha. We have saying in the southern heart lands of Somalia. Nin tiiisa haysta too kale ma arko.

MMA, Islaanta has gone old. Everyone knew the rumours in Xamar back in those days. Allah does not need her, She needs Allah. I hope those rumours are unfounded and she has finally seen the truth with the last messenger Muxammad Al Mustafa nabad iyo naxariis ha ku ahaate. Indeed what a shamefull way to go, I was born british and I choose to give it up. No Islaanyahay. Blod was shed, thousands of Somalis died. You were a part of colony and you were a second class citizen whose only duty was was to feed the whites of Britain with your resources and fight their wars in Iraq against the ottomans. You were classified as black woman, an inferior race. I do no not think we need to talk more about the matter. The conclusion is that she really she is a prime example of a new somali aphorism that she really put into practice cimri dhamaad ceeb ayaa luu salootiya! Yaab!

This criticism is not valid neither is not correct. Lets be honest. Farmaajo failed even to venture against any offensive against shabaab while HSM declared war. While farmajo was busy knee-jerking and engaging in power struggles with god for sakens bubu-lands in order to stay in power the enemy grew. The reality on the ground is that HSM has matured. The countrey was a failed state that is in a existential state of war against al-shabaab. In order for you to win a war you need allies. Guys, smell the coffee, The world is tired on financing never ending african military expititions. HSM knows that. If he fails to establish security and insutututions and a sense of hope that the government way of life is a better way of life then the shabaab Somalis will go down with him. A credit to Farmaajo is that he probably out of tribal matters sorted Khayre to do things done. But he failed miserably when Afwerkis black magic of staying in power reacched him. A famine is going one, you want people to be fed, Somalia has a collapsed economy. The people need food. Food needs money, soldiers need money. Ofcourse he will be a begging president. Its shamefull but who on earth can blame him? His way handling the warlord Bihi was exemplary. Bihi wanted a Somali president who would come to Las Anod and proclaim victory and then rally his people in a vicious tribal matters as the 80-tioes- HSM denied him that by stating that the Unity of Somalia is undebebatable and that the Biixi needs to crimes his comitting in Las-Anod. Infact the line he used against by telling him dont force your will on other people even fractured the whole secceionist project. Regarding the war against Shabaab, man took on the red elephant in the room. When we Somalis can pay taxes and use our nations resources only then can we stop begging. Look at the historical trips of our presidents. All post-colonial presidents begged. We somalis smiled and clapped our hands when Barre went to Moscow and begged and came back with communism and with Russians. The only good thing he did that he threw out the remaining italian elite who ran somali fruits. A white russian had to teach us who plant a seed in order for tomatoes to grow. As non-ideological aligned people we are, we yet again begged and join the Arab League. We are the only nation that do not speack arabic. We got money but at the same time deep identity issues came along that. What are we? Africans, arabs etc?. Instead of focusing on somali nationalism and islami who choose to begg I remember a Facebook post in 2020. The begging continued. They made some film about turks teaching Somalis how to plant tomatoes. All were clappings and the comments were of joy but no one could see the irony. We clapped for the Italians, the russians, the cubans, the arabs, the americans, and then the Turks. I will be harsh before I go to work. I was firmly nagainst federalism. After the defeat of al-shabaab this federal project will unleach a wave of tribal bubu lands and discord. T he Las Anod community will demand a part of the cake, and now Hiiran and the south where borders are fluid even create more chaos. But Somalia needed it in order to problems of some people to Galmudug. Imagine, the warlord busy in god forsaken desert town. Federalism tamed turned the tribalism but what we are lacking is a clear ideology. An ideology created by us, tailored by us and that can lead us peace. Pan ethno- somalism combined with Islam is the only the political ideology that show us the path. HSM should speak more about this vision and the dream of a unfied somali peninsuala with strong islamic virtues instead of bragging small battle victory Shabaab. The people need a ideology, a book, our stance, our vision. AUN Barres regime greatest mistake was choosing communism and making small "orientation centres" teaching muslim nomads about class struggle when they needed to be taught about the ethnic card. He lost the chance to teach Somalis about pan-somalism and ethno-nationaiism and how all somali tribes are some what somalis. Social engenieering Somalis to mix as they did to begin and creating a small elite that rejected tribalism MMA, The begging president has to be beg., Xamar dad ma joogaan sxb. The educated elite who gained a few things are now in their 60-ties. Those who are running the scenes are wolves born during the civil war. Their way of life motto is : eat and steal before no one else can do it before you. Rabbi Ummada Soomaliyeed haa isku keeno.

Its not often that I comment on Somali politics. Gone are the days when tribal matters are commented upon. But something is happening within the SNM folks. Since the early 90-ties I remember how they created a revisionist history. Whille Barre-regime repressed every clan that opposed him, indeed the northeners benifted the most in cost of scholarships etc. Hey, if you dont belive me, just look at deeply intrenched the seccionists were in Barres regime, beginning with Silaanyo to Kaahin. Anyways. The old generation is dead. A new generation that feeds upon social media is on the vibe in the streets of hargeysaa. I am getting a sense of that the whole extremist secceionist politics is declining. Like it or not, 30 years has gone and even within the folks in Hargeysaa are realizing that while the world are unitiing and forming economic unity, creating a tribal state is not feasable. The Elite knew about it, but the masses are now start to realize it. The Decline began a long time ago but could be really defined when southern Somalia got rather better. Hey? How could you speak about pan-somalism and unity when rape and brutal warlords were reigning in the ghost town of mogadishu in the 90-ties. 30 years later we are today seing a stabile federal government, not a perfect one, but bent upon making peace and fighting the khwaarij. Gone are the old days of warlordism. SNM 3-city state enlcave seem to be stuck in history. The anti-somali SNM extremists, and not the somali brothers hargeysaa finally lost the major political card of displaying the card of "we are the only most safest place in Somalia". Like or not, it was not southetners who destroyed it but Muuse Biixi himself. A blood thirsty man who himself indulged in the civil wars of the north. I dont know what kind of political advisors these guys have but it seems that irrational politcal decisions are made at jaad-sessions. Why on earth attack SSC? I love metaphors, and think that the young generation really shows were things are going. Last year I attended the gradutuation of brothers son. The Somali youngters at the school who were all friends were taking and all-somali picture. A gloomy kid came probably forced by his parents with the SNM flag. Realing how every immigrant group, turks, morrocans and their own flag the parents saw the flaw in their plan. While looking from the distance I could see the old man telling his kid to give him back the flag and take the blue one. In conclusion, 30 plus years is a long time. The Seccesionists extremist agenda died with their biggest co-sponsor TPLF. Thousands of jobless of northern somalis are in mogadishu and enjoying the life and the seeing the reality that no one really cares about your clan. The SNM extremist elements within the seccesionist movement are in decline. The nail on the coffin was the SCC folks who woke up, My question now is, whats really the end game? When will the hargeysaa ppl oust this warlord ghoust from 80-ties? Where are the moderates withiin the movement and the intellectuals who can see the defacto situation? By the way, As a southerner I was happy to see Somaliland in peace. Its tragic to see how 1 man bizarre tragic irrational warlordism is dragging the countrey to intra.tribal conflicts. Every somali knows that the most tribal prone areas or folks are Hargeysaa folks. Intee ey socdeen?

Its allways good to read others perspective. Abukar Armans shares my view that the terror network al-shabaab, wahaabiyada and the so called "thousands of al-shabaab" invading soomali-galbeed is just another false-flag cashow for caabey axmaaro and his un-elected, menelik styled appointed cagjar in Soomali Galbeed. Hey who can blame him, the war on the TPLF has depleted his cash, the UAE dropped him off. The oromos and qeero do not longer support him after he turned out to be a neo-mengistu. As for Cagjar, as far as I know he us un-elected and no diffirent then those before him. Hand picked by the amxara-elite bent upon keeping the lid on ethiopias ultimate fate, the decoding or deconstruction of the black colonialism that tha Amhara war-lord and bestial murderor Meneleik did. Read Former Ambd Abukar Armans perspectives. Kulaha Soomali-galbeed when they could have concentrated on a port, kismaayu. Friday July 29, 2022 By Abukar Arman In countries such as the U.S., there is an unwritten theory in a police investigation that assumes whenever a neighborhood robbery occurs, it was done by someone who not only had the motive to commit that crime but the basic intelligence to help time it well and to get away with it. In other words, it was committed by someone who lives or operates within a 5-miles radius around the crime scene. If your gut feeling is ‘such mentality, regardless of how logical it may sound, will keep the law-enforcement stereotypically myopic and perpetually racist,’ you are not alone. But that is a topic for another day. Meanwhile, an elaborately sophisticated attack carried out by more than 500 al-Shabab, and dozens of technical-armed trucks- against Ethiopia left many casualties and many unanswered questions. Granted, this was not a robbery. According to the VOA’s Investigative Dossier, “Officials from both sides of the (Somalia, Ethiopia) border confirmed that the attacks preoccupied Liyu police forces and distracted them as other heavily armed al-Shabab units crossed the border unopposed.” Moreover, the same program quotes an anonymous former al-Shabab militant who said the group was determined to erect its flag inside Ethiopia and then officially declare that “jihad spread to a new front.” The offensive, according to Matt Bryden of the controversial Sahan research group, “appears to be the start of a major, strategic initiative to establish an active combatant presence in Ethiopia, probably in the southeastern Bale Mountains.” How about that for a narrative express? Surely with the failure of the Somali Federal Government’s military and intelligence campaign as well as America’s deadly drone doctrine to decapitate and defeat al-Shabab, the terrorist group remains more dangerous than ever. That danger is made worse when governments sometimes engage in their own concocted threats to pave the way for one manipulative objective or another. Here are some possible scenarios driving al-Shabaab’s incursion into the Somali region of Ethiopia: Scenario One: It is the first step of a foreign-driven plan to spook China out of Ethiopia’s oil and gas-rich region. A few years ago, the Ethiopian government signed a multi-billion dollar deal with a Chinese company to develop petroleum and natural gas in the Somali region. Moreover, the company is to design storage, transportation, and marketing logistics as well as build pipelines for domestic and international supply. On April 28, 2020, the Ethiopian government signed a $3.6 billion deal with a Virginia-based energy firm named GreenComm Technologies to construct an oil refinery in Ethiopia’s oil-rich Somali region. Reminiscent of the Somali facilitated British predatory capitalist Soma Oil and Gas, there is only one problem: the company has neither the expertise nor the credibility to be trusted with such a contract. And though the Ethiopian government indicated the willingness to cancel, no official report confirms that. Scenario Two: A false flag scheme to re-shuffle the cards in the Horn with the derailment of the Horn Economic Integration engineered by the European Union, championed by Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia, and funded by the U.A.E. Under such a scheme, a pretext for prolonged strategic military campaigns and political torpedoes launched from a selected federal state is established. So Ethiopia and Somalia, or President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, will spend the next four years riding a dangerous roller-coaster, as did President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmajo) and President Uhuru Kenyatta. Meanwhile, Somalia has secured membership in the East African Community (EAC) and a peace-keeping force that excludes Ethiopia. Scenario Three: To further hammer Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has already lost a loyal partner in the loss of Farmajo. Under this scenario, multiple deadly fronts are opened. This scenario is based on the assumption that the United Arab Emirates or President Mohammed bin Zayed had turned his back on the European project that this author criticized before and dropped Abiy Ahmed from his previous pivotal role. Of course, the natural replacement is none other than President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, who secured UAE a military base while it was actively partaking in the war in Yemen and just completed training 5000 Somali soldiers to provide military protection as UAE colonizes Socotra in partnership with Israel. “The saga of these Somali soldiers has been full of twists and turns,” wrote Michelle Gavin, a security expert for the Council on Foreign Relations. This lucrative clandestine mercenary project was equivocated and denied by the Farmajo government until literally the last minutes before ceremonially handing over the presidential authority to the newly elected President HSM. Scenario Four: To re-engineer a new balance of power that would end the ethnic cleansing of the Tigrayans and boost their military capacity to ultimately take over what is considered viable economic insurance- the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This requires stretching the Ethiopian military power so thin by opening on it many military fronts. The coalition of the willing under this scenario may include Egypt, which considers the dam’s drastic impact on the flow of the Nile as an existential threat, Sudan, the U.S. And due to the rapidly changing geopolitics of the region, and Ethiopia’s steadily growing ethnic nationalism, it is likely to include U.A.E and Israel whose strategic and economic interest in the Nile water is no secret. Scenario Five: A combination of the listed scenarios; and this could prove the most complex one to decode and deal with. Relevant Context For over a decade, Ethiopia has dominated the Bay and Bakool regions of the South West federal-state of Somalia. It has been its most reliable laboratory where Ethiopia trained and mobilized some of its most notorious clandestine allies, the violent neo-Islamists such as Mukhtar Robow (still held as a political prisoner) and his militia, and tribal secularists such as Abdirashid Janan and his militias for of subversion and security dependency (AMISOM). Intriguingly, the Shabaab militia that attacked Ethiopia is reported to have been trained in the Jubbaland federal state (Jilib and Ras Kamboni). According to the Governor of Bakool, their objective was to raise their flag inside Ethiopia. To accept that Shabaab would carry out such a daring operation with such a reported large number of its militia out of Jubbaland while ignoring the temptation to take the jewel of that federal state – Kismayo – or to takeover U.S.’ only military base in Somalia and to chase the American troops out of that region requires an extremely wild imagination that some of us do not possess.

A good analysis on what might be happening. We are all in the dark. But one thing thing is for sure, their is something breweing in a hot pot. I will yet call it Al-Al-shabaab and I will tell you so. Abtigis, aka Mudane Cagjar is probably a good guy but do not ever forget that he was directyly appointed by whom I have ever called the biggest neftegna (amhara colonial settler) Abey Ahmed. Before that, the monster was Cabdi Iley. I beg you to question. Have their happended anything else since then? If bush soldiers of ONLF who bravely I might say stayed in the Bush during the Cabdi Iey and AUN martyrs like Nuur Huure Ciraqi and nafte u hure the martyr and the intellectual Doolaad who went from European life to semi-deserts to Soomali-galbeed. When the Somalis rose and ONLF speeded up it attacks in 2007, aljazeera noticed it. The shrewd and vicous TPLF chose a man an tree electrcian who used to be called and then be asked to climb up trees. He was chosed becouse of his absolute loyalty to a degree that even we Somalis with our culture we shocked. They launched a propoganda channel and made the whole area a no go area. Al-shabaab became the cow milk for TPLF. Diverse attacks by ALFR and OLF ONLF and 20 other various groups were blamed on Al-shabaab. Galbeedi, Al-shabaabs strategy was been wellknown, they made calculated decision to withdraw from Mogadisu after a vicious campaign of liberation. They isolated themselves in the fertile regions and shifted their strategy to win the peoples hearts and brain wash the youth with toxic non islamic whabism. Why would they now venture in Ethiopia? Somethings doesnt add upp here. According my sources the IC with Turkey Told Mudane XSM "either to eliminate Al-shabaab or its you who will be eliminated by them, amisom will not stay forever". XSM told openly the people to brace them for war. Hence why the many international trips. Turkish drones are landing in Somalia. Farmaajo said the same thing but he was populist and lacked the backing of IC. The IC strategt then was lets to contain them. They do not have sea port hence are not so dangerous. That changed with Afghanistan. Alternative theories? Might it be die-hard ONLF soldiers U-WSLF staging last ditch attacks and Cagjar who doesnt want aknowlidge that using the al-shabaab game to unite Ethiopia as the orders given to him?. Rabbi ba og xadiiqda

well said Galbeed Maakhir, I will respond to you guys at a later time.

As your eedaadada aun used to say "nin aan YAABIN AYAA YAABAY!. A warlord who taped his own warlordism in 1991 using the victim card.

congratulations to all somali people, from carta to jigjiga to all down to gaarisa. A great day for somalis, a day unity of and freedom from the brutality of colonialism.

As a parent, a couple of years ago during foregin trip I visited some relatives of mine. A young girl was completely disabled. As we were having the dinner the poor girl went nuts. She dragged the table and the casho-sharaf for me and my wife was completely destroyed. The relative of mine simply bought a pizza and we usally commented on somali politics. What amazed me what his complete deny of the situation. Out of courtesy neither did I mention anything about the girls condition. Thats how the somali mindset is. Ignore what you can, qari waxi la qari karo, but we have a saying, "waxii la qariyo qurun aa ku jiro". While many here are busy commenting on Fahad Yasin, or Farmaajo or Xassan Sheikh Maxamud and isolated fufu-lands that completeyt even lacks the basic requirments to give its sacred clan members basic water and education, no one wants talk about the big pink elephant in the room. We Somalis have tendency to be full of emotions but including me lack complete sense of honesty on describing the situation on the ground. When the taleban literally stormed the Kabul the president fled no Afghan political commentary would talk about the future. We are not afghans. We are not pashtuans. We are Somalis. But a foot-note, during a cabinet meeting headed by Rooble to adress security issues in the full company of all ministers asked the defence minister "wasiir, how are our armed forces in Somalia". A minister who I do not like to name who is famous for cracking jokes said "what army,. heck I cant event go to ceelasha biyaha, yet alone to Baladwayne by car". The ministers laughed while the poor defence minister tried reply in the priestly cermonial way of "dear prime minister, the army is ready to defend the countrey". That night according to my source many folks went home terrified or fully aware of how things could unfold.. Somalia is a former failed state.Clan- Federalism was adopted in order rid Mogadishu those from the arid cenral places of Somalia. It was created to defuse clan-tensions and was way 30-years of population who has only seen anarchy to go back to the fufu-lands and ask their basic rights. It was a way to give time to FGS rebuild vital instututions. Even the the SNM clan-based triangle state seperatists have not been able to build a single road since the devestatating 1991-civil war. Somalis say, and even the Koran affirms it, yaqiin, real facts on the grounds is gained by true insights. I visisted Somalia pre farmaajo and what I saw was a huge NGO-funded government. A government guarded by emotional clan-actors by thousands of Amisom soldiers. The roads linking Mogadishu to Gaalkacayo, baladwayne, Baidoa and to kismaayo are completely cut off. I asked a general who guess what: Was working in his 80-ties about the state. He simply responded "well we are under seige". While our glorious Islam and its traditional sunni islam, shafite madhab and asharite caqiidah have today a resennance in southern Somalia and are a strong factor in maths of Somalia the truth is that the 30-years of anarchy wahabism and its ofshoot al-qaida had a upswing. Hey who can judge them? No law no nothing. Who remembers the days when Mogadishu was like a scene from a apocolyptic film like madmax where the town was divided by certain clans.? Anyways while Somalia is today bickering from Farmaajo, or Xassan Sh Maxamud or another non-actor, note the word "non-actor". The Somali FGS is western funded giant NGO project that wants the important seas free from pirates and ofcourse a non--alqaeda state that inflicts terror on its citizens. 14 years or 13 years of Amisom and and war with Al-shabaab has taught Al-shabaab some vital strategies. Some even go to shabaab-courts instead of state courts. Jamal Osman was indeed a PR achievment for al-shabaab but al-shabaabs decesion to give an open interview and show its "state enabling" factors have made me deeply worried. America has shown that it can negotiate with its devils. If they did it with taliban they can surely with al-shabaab. If Al-shabaabs secretive shura council decides that they will cut the relations with the egyptian arab that hardly knows black Somalia is on the map and denounce their alliance with al-qaeda that makes room for negotions. The Western nations are now backslide, americans fifth fleet is in the china sea. Somalia is a secondary issue. The funding for Amisom dimimishing and if my reports are not wrong. Western nations are even contemplating a time-table for exit. While I was in Somalia I noticed a intresting thing. Many becouse of 30 years of anarchy and free roam for wahabi ideoloogists, many in Somalia have in a way in a sub-cuncious way already al-shabaab mentality. The absence of a nation state and just put forward a few questions and you will see that many have been burned by Ictisam (the mother of al-Shabaab), Those who declared jihad against Pres Abdullahi Yusuf but remain silent today. Wahabism is in crisis. It is sad to see that the FGS is not using its reresources to combat the ideology and to empower our traditional ulama ( I am not talking about those sufis who deviated in central Somalia). In summary friends, Farmaajo was marker for Somalia. A D-man elected by celebortary gunfire in Mogadishu. Imagine that to 1991. Uts sad that he squanderd his years of trying to get his men in god forsaken fufu-lands instead of playing the cermonalial healing president. The president that should have lambasted the clan leaders for not giving basic water and educatiob to its clan-enclaves now called fufu- or bubu lands. The only good thing he did was that he did not destroy Qatar-Turkish alliance. But all of these people are non-actors. Once the dollars run out and Mahad Karataay, the al-shabaab khwaarij coming out to the media and denouncing Al-qaeda we might one day see them over run the capital. Think about it, if billions of dollars in afghanistan and state army building could not do a thing why would it be diffirent in Somalia? Somalis are muslims, Dr Baadiyow Phs dissertions offers the best solution for Somalia. In order for the Somali governmment to beat Al-shabaab they need to ideologically combat and re-educate Somalia, an Islamic Somalia that denies Al-shabaab its core arguemnt of being the only legitmate islamic is needed. Salary for the state Imams.Its sad to see when Saudi-Arabia finally admitted the menace ommited to this Ummah that we Somalis are stilll struggling to find out where did these guys come from. See the interview and see how Mahad Khwaarij is actually in sarbeeb planning. Anyways, Fahad Yasin, Farmajjo, Xassan Sh, ---- These are indeed non-actors. Its time that the Somali government actually aknowlidges that the city is under seige. Many in this forum might not agree with that but hey what are the facts on the ground and how do you define a seige?. Is Somalia ready accept Turkish troops and fully ally itself further? Greater strategic decisions needs to be done. Once trumpists are in power they will not care who they will negotiate with. Pan-Somalism intertwined with Pan-Islamism with Sheekh Xassan Banna and our local dariiqoyinka can only save us from this menace. Only Somalis. Not Amisom, no other force. Some might accuse of panicking, but think about it, these guys have been around for 14 years. They have shown that clan-discord can not destroy them. So whats the solution? More ghost soldiers?