galbeedi

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Everything posted by galbeedi

  1. "Ethiopia National Security Adviser Gedu Andargacho met w pres Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo in Mogadishu". The national security adviser is Amhara, so is the deputy premier Makonen, who is touring Africa. president Zowde , an Amhara lady was in South Africa This is a government of Amhara by the Amhara and for the Amhara. The chances of Somali Galbeed autonomy,let alone freedom is in danger. Any far sighted Somali should never ever support an Amhara agenda. They are hiding behind a fake Abyssinia. In this war, a Tigray victory, or even a surviving of Tigray entity in the north is the best interest of the Oromo, Somali and others. I don't know if you guys heard, but Eritrean and Ethiopian navies will be united and based in Assab, Eritrea. with help of the French, Ethiopia will have a navy that might face the future Somali navy and Turkey in the region.This new dictator in the making in the horn must be stopped. Abiy had betrayed everyone and will sell Somalis in a New York minute. Somalis, be ware of what you wish. On the Somali front, TPLf was aware in the weak position they were against Somalia, if Somalai decides to help Ethiopian ethnic rebels, so they tried to install Ethiopia friendly leadership in Somalia. It was the Islamic courts who changed every thing.Now we need a new strategy against the new despot who want to be a king.
  2. It is astonishing how Abiy has made a total blackout in the age of internet. He is feeding us. He tells Makale resident to stay inside to avoid the tank and the artillery shells that will be falling on them next day. The war is going on even around the cities they captured. Again , this war has just started. Abiy has no choice but to continue. If stops, the Amhara generals will finish him off.
  3. THere is a lot of propaganda in this war. The Ethiopian army did not move even a kilometre in the southern front for almost a week. Their own spokesman admitted about the TPLF " Blowing bridges and digging roads". It is true that the Ethiopia forces had advanced from the north and captured some major towns, but they are far from going to Makale. An Amhara speaking Somali told me that after the big causality of the Ethiopian forces in the south especially the Amhara militia whose dead officers were brought to Addis, Abiy tried to open negotiations, but the Amhara generals refuse and demanded five more weeks. Abiy Ahmed is in a big dilemma. If he accepts mediation the Amhara officers might even eliminate him. Since he can not trust Oromo the only people that suround him are Amhara.
  4. Gooni, Khayre waxa uu noqday daa'uus boogtiisi isaga iyo dadkii kaleba wada arkeen. Hassan Sheikh iyo Ina C/shakuur ayuu hoos fahiistay. Ilaahayoow na dil oo hana doorin syey reer galbeedku odhan jireen.
  5. THe worst man in the list definitely is former prime minister Hassan C. Khayre. This fool is willing to campaign what he himself created for four and half years. He has to beg for INa C/shakuur to forgive him. He is the worst example of Somali greed. He should have went to the sun set and come back after four years showing patience and honor.
  6. In 2004, close to a dozen men from Mogadishu, decided to campaign against one major candidate, then president C/laahi Yusuf (AHN) in Nairobi. Before the election, I didn't realize the composition of candidates. After the conclusion of the first round , I was amazed how a close to dozen men from the same region including president C/qasin SAlaad Hassan couldn't agree to one , two or three candidates to go against , Cabdilaahi Yusuf, the man of the hour. president C/qaasim Salaad, C/laahi, Ahmed Cadow, Huseen Aideed, MOhamed Qanyare (AHN) Engeneer C/laahi Cadow (AHN), Muuse Suudi Yalahow and other had agreed to run against C/laahi Yusuf. The fragmented Mogadishu coalition each got a minority of the vote and at the end made secret deals with the most serious candidate C/laahi Yusuf. Now, in 2020, I see the same pattern from the greedy Mogadishu politicians .The list is long: Xasan Cali Kheyre, former presidents Xasan Sheekh Maxamuud and Shariif Sheekh Axmed, Cabdiraxmaan Cabdishakuur, Cabduqaadir Cosoble Cali, Daahir Maxamuud Geelle, Musstaf Sheekh Cali Dhuxulow, Cabdikariin Xuseen Guuleed, Shariif Xasan Sheekh Aadan. I know some of them are just vying to get a position from the winning candidate or those they might consider to be the heavy weight candidate. Yet, it is very strange that even the lieutenants of certain candidates are running probably to boast their boss. For example, Mustafe Dhuxulow, a lieutenant of Hassan Khayre and C/kariim Guuleed, a Hassan Sheikh man, are probably running as surrogates of their bosses while pretending to be a candidate. This list looks exactly the one I saw 16 years ago. The only big deference is that this time around, they all are pretending to be friends and political allies. Non of them is willing to sacrifice his position for the team. Shariif Ahmed, the man who publicly proclaimed to be armed just in case the bullets fly, is not willing to give up his candidacy to Hassan Sheikh. In 2012, all the 13 candidates agreed to join together and pick one candidate to face Shariif Ahmed. THey all agreed in the early stages of the campaign, but when the rubber hit the road, Hassan Sheikh refused and left the group after getting the badly needed cash from Qatar, thanks to Fahad Yaasiin, the current intelligence chief. THere are four men from the Mogadishu (Unaka Iska Leh) group just like 2012. Yet, the idea to present a crowded race to the public was intended to send indirect messages to the larger Somali public, especially to the naive and gullible. After the 2012 election, a good proff. who was helping one of the candidates told me that everyone among the members of the parliament agreed that this time around the president ought to be from Unaka. This conclusion was made mainly through fear and insecurity from those who hail outside the capital. That was the main reason four members from UNaka: Shariif Ahmed, Hassan Sheikh, C/laahi Cosoble and C/raxman Baadiyow were among the four of the six who got the largest vote among the candidates. While others were hiding for security reason, they were campaigning among the members in their own turf. That reason alone should have forced Somalils to hold the election in a secure city like Garoowe or Cadaado. Insecure Mogadishu is nothing but a political advantage for some. Now in 2020, I am hearing the same indirect messaging that promotes a similar outcome. Madaxwrnaha markaan waxa iska leh Reer hebel. THose of us who know better are not buying this propaganda from greedy Mogadishu boys. Few years ago, the only Somali group ready to challenge this false entitlement were the Puntlanders. This time around they are ridding comfortably in the wagon driven by Unaka waiting for the left overs. Last month C/laahi Deni showed his political skills and made a drive through in the Farmaajo political business hatched in Dhuusamareeb one and two. He along Ahmed Madoobe single handily dismantled what ever was cooked for months in central Somalia. He was feted in Mogadishu, yet there is no major candidate from Puntland. Everyone is waiting for the Unaka crown that may or might not replace Farmaajo. If Farmaajo is skillful like late preisdent C/laahi Yusuf, he would tell each candidate something soothing in their ears to sway them in the second round of the vote. In 2004, both Qanyare, Huseen Caydiiid and others joined C/laahi Yusuf in the second round. Despite my prediction, anything can happen between now and the election day. This year of 2020 is a very strange one with many surprises. Who would have thought Khayre and Ina C/shakuur to be political bed flows. If Judging by history is any guide, we might even get a new man with a white horse anointed by the gulf without the public notice. My hope Farmaajo 2 Unaka 0.
  7. Apophis, Bal waran , baryahan xageed jirtay?. Where is your candidate Shariif Ahmed these days?
  8. The way rhis war was waged will never bring Tigray back to Ethiopia again. Abiy cut electricity even from the civilians for total punishment while claiming to be saving the Tigray people. I am waiting Afar state, Tigray state and others to declare their independence just like Bosnia, Slovenia and Croatia. Furthermore, in terms of messaging, I was amazed how the Amhara and Abiy people were so incompetent in their messaging and public relations campaign. They even accused the WHO chief of procuring arms for the TPLF. One more thing, can the diaper carrying wet boys in Villa-Somalia be quite for a minute and watch the ugly Ethiopian circus?
  9. it seems the criminal Amhara has orchestrated the whole thing to get land and weaken both Abiy and Tigray/
  10. Abiy has blinked. After facing huge causality in the town of Shire, with over thousand dead, Abiy has accepted mediation. While he was saying the war will end in days, experts said , " the war has just started"
  11. POLITICS News Wire 1h ago African Union to Send Envoys to Mediate Ethiopian Conflict Samuel Gebre, Bloomberg News (Bloomberg) -- The African Union appointed three former heads of state as envoys to mediate a conflict between the Ethiopian federal government and the northern region of Tigray. The move marks a turning point after the Ethiopian government had rejected earlier calls for mediation in what it termed an internal matter. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed now has accepted the initiative, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who chairs the African Union, said in a statement on Twitter. “The primary task of the special envoys is to engage all sides to the conflict with a view to ending hostilities, creating conditions for an inclusive national dialogue to resolve all issues that led to the conflict, and restoring peace and stability to Ethiopia,” the chairman said after a meeting with Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde. Hostilities erupted Nov. 4 after months of tension between the federal and regional governments. Tigrayan authorities say 100,000 people have been displaced, and the United Nations has warned that an additional 1.1 million people may need aid. The envoys are Joaquim Chissano, former president of Mozambique; Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, former president of Liberia; and Kgalema Motlanthe, former president of South Africa, who will travel to Ethiopia in “coming days.” Ramaphosa said the process is aimed at creating a “dialogue and an end to fighting that has cost many lives and extensive displacement of people.” ©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
  12. THey are mobilizing like the largest war Ethiopia ever taken. For Somalia, it is good news that the Ethiopian forces are leaving our land. Farmaajo should ask Turkey to replace the Ethiopian forces in the South West, or deploy the Ugandans who are sitting in Mogadishu.
  13. Che, This war will drag on months. If the war keeps raging in the new year Abiy will be history. On the front side, it seems the TPLF are abandoning open train and retreating to the mountains and to the tough train. It will be suicide to face openly 150,000 Ethiopian forces thrown to the front. Abiy doesn't care about the causality of his soldiers. The latest news is the Ethiopian army is stretched long and far away form the supply and logistics of the main bases. Abiy has taken a large swat if land from the south and west, but TPLF forces are intact at the moment without suffering any major casualties. The TPLF had blown many bridges to cut the supply and had destroyed a large Amhara army already. Abiy also is bombing Makale like a desperate general including universities, a sugar factory and other civilian infrastructure. Yet, despite all his bravado, Abiy is somewhat making some very strange diplomatic moves in Africa. We were all thinking that Ethiopia is telling everyone in Africa to stay out of this war, yet some African leaders are talking about helping Ethiopia militarily. In Kinsasha , Zaire (Congo), during of the visit of Dembeke Mokenon, foreign minister of Ethiopia, the office of the president said the Congolese are willing to preserve the borders of Ethiopia as they did in 1940 during the war in Gambella region against the Italians. In fact, it was The Belgium Congo that fought the Italians in the name of Allied efforts during second world war. We heard similar things from war torn south Sudan. What is going on. Is Abiy asking help already? We all know almost all Ethiopian forces are deployed in Tigray and Abiy is venerable if other ethnic movements start seeking total independence. He could be seeking peacekeeping forces in order to redeploy some of the forces in other hot spots like western Oromia and the region of Benishanguli Gomes who are also seeking independence. The Benishanguli are located where the Ethiopian dam is located bordering Sudan, and with help of foreign elements, they could pose serious threat. Last week they attacked Amhara ethnic groups in their region. Every region now knows that they will be facing Amhara militia in Tigray falls. We already have enough Amhara militia in Jigjiga. Also, by bombing dams in Tigray to cut electricity, Abiy's case against Egypt is becoming weak. With 150,000 men , Abiy could overwhelm Tigray and take some land , yet he will face a long war. THe TPLF has not even used her last cards yet including the fighter jets they were hiding in bunkers and could even hit Bole International to shut down Ethiopia. It will be a long war.
  14. Oday Gooni, Shantii gobol 12 ayey marayaan. Gobolkii woqoyi Galbeeed ayaa waxa laga dhigay afar gobol. Maroodi Jeex oo Hargeisa iyo dhawr tuulo ah, Gabiley oo 40 km Hargeisa u jirta oo Wajaale iyo dhawr magaalo ah, Hawd oo ah degmo Salaxley iyo Baligubale. ah oo Saaxiibkeen Suldaanka lagu maamuusay, iyo Saaxil oo ah Berbera iyo degmada Sheekh oo Togdheer laga soo gooyey. Intaasi saw afar ma aha. Gobolkii togdheer waxa oo afar degmo ahaa degmo walba gobol ayaa laga dhigay. OOdweyne oo hal degmo ah waa gobolka Daad Madheedh, Buuhoodle oo degmo ah waa gobol, Cayno oo hal degmo ah waa gobolka Sarar, iyo Burco oo Togdheer ah. Afar taa ku dat wass sideed. Sanaagna laba gobol oo kala ah Badhan iyo SAnaag ah ku dar , waa toban. Awdalna laba ayaa loo qaybiyey oo waa Salal oo Saylac ah iyo Awdal. Juffo walba gobol ayaa loo sameeyey. Dadka dadka u ciyaaraya Hawd koonfurta Hargeisa eyey degan yihiin, maadaama aan ciyaartoy ku filan laga helyn Salaxley. Gudoomiyeyaasha Salal, Hawd, iyo Gabiley Hargeisa ayey degan yihiin. Waa duni waalatay.
  15. Triangle-shaped structures are sturdy but also simple. In 1998-2000 war broker around the Eritrean village of Baddme, in the area the Ethiopians called Yirga Triangle. And today the initial devastating results of the current Ethiopian ethnic war is seen in a triangle whose three corners are the towns of Humera and Mettema (Ethiopia), Gellabat and Al-Gedarif (Sudan). Since last week, refugees continue to flee their war-torn villages to that triangle on their way to unknown future. Would they be able to return home or scatter everywhere like earlier refugees? Will they meet their lost and separated loved ones again? No one can tell. But we can tell the region will go through many years of social paralysis just like the state the region lived since the end of the Ethiopian-Eritrean war of 1998-2000. “When Paris sneezes, Europe catches a cold.” The above quote is attributed to prince Klemens Von Metternich, the famous Austrian diplomat who died in 1859. Had he lived post-WW2, he would have mentioned America instead of Paris. And America has caught cold many times causing Eritreans to sneeze, just like they are sneezing after America caught cold due to an election drama caused by narcissism. For Eritreans, the current political and military situation of the region is a replay of the post-911 tragedy. However, this time the flames of the raging battles could burn the entire region of the Horn of Africa. On September 18, 2001, just a week after the 911 incident, the Eritrean government silently arrested senior government officials, the staff of the nescient free press, hundreds of civilians, religious leaders, and scores of dignitaries. That happened while the attacks on the USA had grabbed world attention. By the end of the year, the ruling party’s leader Isaias Afwerki has removed all the veterans of the struggle era who could challenge his rule; he became an absolute dictator. Months went by before the world media redirected its attention towards Eritrea. Twenty years later, in 2020, some of the arrested persons have died in prison while the rest have disappeared in the maze of the Eritrean ruling party’s prison system. On November 3, 2020 as the world was focused on the US presidential race, the Ethiopian prime minister Colonel Abiy Ahmed declared war on Tigrai though he claims it is against the TPLF, the ruling party of the Northern Ethiopia region that he and his “Prosperity Party” consider a terrorist organization. On November 4, the Amhara regional militia supported by the federal forces launched a full-fledged military attack on Tigrai. The war has since spread to include many battlefronts inside and around Tigrai. The antagonism between the regional Tigrai and the federal Ethiopian governments gained steam a few months after Colonel Abiy Ahmed came to power in April 2018. By September it became irreconcilable when Abi postponed the Ethiopian parliamentary election for August 2020 citing the Covid19 pandemic. However, in June Abiy further extended the national election by about a year, provided by then, the health authorities declare it is safe. However, on September 9, 2020, the TPLF defied the decision and went ahead and held a regional election where it announced it won 98.5% of the 190-seat regional parliament. The federal government considered the Tigrai government illegitimate, and in turn the TPLF declared the federal government as illegitimate and doesn’t have a mandate to rule since its term has expired. In retaliation, the federal government took drastic measures to choke the Tigrai government financially, and a fierce propaganda war ensued. On October 14, Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea made a surprise visit to Ethiopia and toured the Ethio-Engineering Group that produces vehicles for the Ethiopian military, the GERD Nile dam, and the Ethiopian air force base. Meanwhile, The USA election was days away and occupying world attention. On November 1, 2020, armed rebels massacred over 50 civilians from the Amhara ethnic group in the restive Oromiya region. In an ethnically divided Ethiopia, they were ethnically profiled for being Amharingna speakers in a non-Amhara region.* Government official blamed the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) for the massacre that, according to reports, happened just after the federal security forces departed leaving the area unprotected. However, Ethiopia has been marred by violence since Colonel Abiy took power; the massacre of the 50 Amhara civilians was one in a chain of massacres that ravaged many parts of Ethiopia. Target Tigray As soon as he took power, Abiy Ahmed explicitly stated his goals to reform the Ethiopian government and to spread peace all over the country. However, parallel to his stated goals, he made it clear that his intention was to destroy the EPRDF coalition. Soon, the goal narrowed down to the destruction of the TPLF which was instrumental in creating the EPRDF coalition. He began to hunt down senior members of the TPLF in all parts of the country. And the government media tried them before the courts could say their word. Partisan videographers accompanied the security forces as they humiliatingly handcuffed and arrested TPLF members, some inside their bedrooms, scenes that were widely broadcasted. According to an observer, “a showbiz replica of arrests that inspired many ethno-centrists to consider it a license to openly practice racism against the Tigrayans in general.” And Abiy cornered the TPLF in Tigrai and cut it off from the rest of Ethiopia. Colonel Abiy executed his final assault on the TPLF when he formed the Prosperity Party on the ruins of the EPRDF; it assumed the role of the dissolved ruling EPRDF coalition. He heightened the tone of his vitriolic speeches and incendiary rhetoric against the TPLF. And in an ethnically divided country, his statements incited populist sentiments exposing many Tigrayans to serious abuses. Abiy further coined a code, “ye-qen jiboch” (daytime wolves), to describe the TPLF leaders. The media, both official and partisan, picked the pejorative term and used it liberally against Tigrai. The TPLF, whose members Abiy accused of enriching themselves through corrupt means, taking control of the state corporations, and other criminal schemes, became open targets. And the ethnic gap among Ethiopians is still widening. The Sound of Guns The current conflict escalated when Militias from the Amhara region attacked territories they claim the TPLF forcefully incorporated into the Tigrai region. They were determined to take over the territories. As the Militias marched into the Welkait-Tsegede region, many civilians lost their lives, others were uprooted, or their properties were destroyed, and families were separated. The federal air force and artillery joined in and further damages followed. To date, Sudanese officials reported over ten-thousand refugees have arrived from Ethiopia and they expect another 200,000 thousand soon. They hosted the refugees in the Shegerab refugee camp where tens of thousands of Eritreans have been stranded since many decades. A few weeks ago, in preparation for the battles in Tigrai, the federal government arrested many reporters and journalists and ordered several media outlets to stop operating. In addition, Internet connection was shut off in Tigrai. Now, as the battles rage resulting in severe human and property loses, the absence of a free media has enabled the government to monopolize the discourse and control the flow of information. The only news available is spread by the government mouthpieces that are engaged in a frantic propaganda war, talking about battles and not the war. The usual military push and pull, losing or winning battles, does not determine the final result, a war does. But then, there is no winning in such a war—the warriors will finally stop fighting but the people will lick their wounds for a long time—if (and after) the war stops. The Background. A scholar from Addis Ababa who didn’t want to be named said, “The most disappointment thing is that the West is enamored with dictators, if they don’t find any, they make one—why did they award a Nobel prize to an untried and unknown quantity like Abiy?” The remark explains what emboldened Abiy. Peace making is a process and cannot be achieved without the participation of the stakeholders. Abiy making a private deal with Isais Afwerki amounts to nothing more than two persons having a chat over a cup of coffee. Furthermore, Abiy’s policies are reminiscent of the ancient Ethiopian rule of “divine ordained emperors.” He has no respect for the rights of the people of the region; he wants to put them in a smelter to come out from the other end ready to be added to the super-Ethiopian-identity of his choice, in an illusionary nation he dreams of lording over. He expects the people to drop their layers of identities and meltdown in the super-identity that his team of elite functionaries and allies has chosen. But it is impossible to visualize that happening even theoretically, let alone become a reality. Thus, Abiy is leading the region back to the old Abyssinian modus operandi of endless wars. And as they say, “if you undeservedly pamper a soldier you produce a dictator.” *They are called Neftegna, a pejorative term used to describe people who settled in a region with the might of rifles. Even if the Amharas have lived in the place for generations, they will rarely be accepted as citizens with full rights..
  16. The preacher thought he was arresting small criminals from Makale, not the rocket armed nation in the north. Man, this Abiy guy has almost fooled us as reformer. Che, at least you were one of the few who said , he will not be different than his predecessors.
  17. I haven't seen anyone in Ethiopia calling for dialogue or cease fire. This people are ruthless. all i see is " bury the TPLF five meter down the earth". Somali naive dreams of economic integration with these brutal despots have to wait many years to come. Until they hold elections and elected legally. .
  18. In the meantime , the Amhara and Abiy had a map of new the Ethiopia. I don't have but it looks the new map is based on geography like north, east and south region. It will be five region with Somali region and some Oromo region curved together.
  19. Why would the TPLF use knife and machete while having guns? very strange. I heard the TPLF hit Asmara airport. this war is getting bigger by the hour.
  20. Some people used to talk about delusions in Hargeisa, but this statement from the interior minister probably had broken the the record. For the last few years Somaliland was unable to hold a yearly provincial games due to incompetence and fights among the players and actions of some overzealous fans in the stadiums. Hostile fans and some violence is expected in any football games every where, but in Somaliland , the main problem is not the public or the fans who watch the game. It is the corrupt ministry of sports whose only job is to hold this games once a year, and the players themselves. Few years ago , the players from Togdheer (Burco) used knifes not against the opposing team but their own teammates which culminated the canceling of the games for few years. Finally the games were held, and according to this minister the world was expecting for this tournament. The ever present NGO from Nairobi probably financed these games and welcomed it. Here is the minister listen: Last week the team from Togdheer (Burco) was suspended for four years for minor mistakes. Here a team was defeated in penalty shootout during semi final game, yet the losing team said they reject the decision. This time the referee was not even Somali but a Kenyan. If the referee is the wrong tribe, the opposing team might not accept. Here the team refuses. Somaliland needs societal change . The people are good but ruled by a corrupt oligarchs whose incompetence will fuel sectarian idea.
  21. Ah, and one more thing... WE need to locate our old freind here in SOL Mr. Old Observer. He was much deeper than most of us. He was reading things that wil be coming in the future. While we we were helping Abiy persecute Cabdi Illey, OO used to point out how Cabdi Illey a symbol of Somali independence in the region. He understood the plots of Abiy Ahmed and his plan to subdue the Somalis while consolidating power in Addis. Case in point, the general who crushed Cabdi Illey became head of Amhara region later and last he was appointed the intelligence chief. Illey had blood in his hands which made Somalis hate, yet instead we got a sheep and a puppet of the Amhara shrouding himself with the blue flag. Calankii degaanka waxa an ku darnay xidigtii bluuga ayuu dadka ku seexiyey. THe time has come for the ONLF to leave its tribal enclave and reach out to other Somalis. WE must form a united front to confront the incoming Amhara and Ahmarized Oromo before they bury us alive. Where are you Mr. OO?
  22. We Somalis are innocent compared to these Ethiopian blood thirsty leaders. What we have in Somalia is dysfunction, unemployment and the scrooge of Al-shabaab. It is inconceivable in the 21st century a Somali leader would impose media blackout and murder his own citizens in the name of rule of law. If this Abiy guy can do this to Tigray people imagine what he would do to Somalis. This war will change both Ethiopia and Eritrea. If Assias Afwerk joins this war, then the war will move to Eritrea. He has a well organized opposition within Eritrea and the diaspora that are looking an opportunity to topple their dictator. Abiy talks like some one trying to arrest a criminal some where in Tigray. He is not telling the badly trained militia that they will be facing a battle hardened TPLF army. With his targeting of Tigray citizens around Ethiopia, Including civil servants, businessmen and professional people that work for NGO's, Abiy has sealed the faith of the Tigray people to rally and support the TPLF.
  23. What a beautiful story. Hard work and education is escape for success. Certainly our Turkish brothers are rising every where. BY far most Germans of Turkish origin are successful people who integrated well within their society. Yet, that is not enough for the new European politicians who are seeking scapegoats for their failure. Macron is the best example. Science and technology is the future. WE are waiting the next Somali scientist from diaspora who might cure cancer.
  24. This is the era of hard power. In fact, it was Armenia who started the war in July by attacking a region close to the Azeri gas pipeline and killed 17 men including a major general, a colonel and other officers. THey were probably instructed by another foreign power to siege Turkey in the caucuses. THe Russians can not help them separate from Azerbaijan since they themselves a lot of ethnic regions that would leave if given the chance. This is the beginning of the rise of the Turkmen to take their place among the world powers. in the future many central Asian nations of Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan will join this huge land stretching from Asia manor to the borders of China. All they need is few more years of Erdogan or like minded leader.
  25. THere was never been one single fair election in Ethiopia and there will never be one. For Abyssinia to change, both TPLF , Amhara and Amharized Otomo must give up power. Abiy want to have dictatorial powers without winning an election. After crushing the TPLF , he will pit the Oromo against one another. The western Oromo (OLF) will fight a messy guerrilla war that will not achieve anything meaningful. The largest Oromo group of Arsi, Bale and Harrarghe, which are mainly Muslim ,will be subdued through intimidation and internal security purging. The third remaining Oromo who are Orthodox will ally with the Amhara. Sidamo might be left alone after gaining regional status. Somali and Affar will be subordinates through their puppet leadership. Then Abiy can fill the election boxes just like TPLF and rule the next decade. All that could happen if he crushes the TPLF. And that is a big if. Since it is tough to crush the battle hardened TPLF forces, it could be Abiy himself who would be thrown to the vultures to save mama Ethiopia from another upheaval. My guess is he will be replaced before he embarks more crazy adventures.