Now your generalising and even worser labelling with statements like ‘you people are cut of the same clot’, it seems you are much closer in thoughts then those you are despising who also made a sport out of labeling and seeing everywhere enemies and animosities, even when there are none. Indeed let’s leave it there.

Somaliland/SSC Khatuumo: Somaliland Government was Always Wrong By Mohamed Ibrahim Monday August 28, 2023 Having been observing Somali politics for a number of years, the defeat of the Somaliland forced in Goojcade was inevitable. This is the case because the war lacked political legitimacy, was injustice and doomed to fail all the time. The uprising in Lascaanod was born out of the conditions and violence/insecurity the local residents felt for over ten years. Historically, Somaliland was wrong was on many levels. First, they wrongly assume or (wilfully ignored) everyone in the region will embrace Somaliland’s pursuit of independent state and failing to provide a political space for people who clearly have a political of their own to join the Greater Somalia. This was the first monumental political mistake that was made by this Somaliland government and others. For a number of years, I have warned against the political imprisonment and harassment of anyone in the region who did not subscribed to the independence of Somaliland. However, subsequent Somaliland governments ignored and intensified their threats and imprisonment where even raising small blue flag would land you a prison sentence. This showed me the authority lacked the confidence and capacity to enact their political vision without subjugating and imprisoning the people that believed otherwise. Somaliland government wilfully ignored there are silent majority in Sool region who enjoy peace and security by do not subscribe to the Somaliland vision of independence. The Somaliland government failed to open the political space for Somali unionism and this continues be a colossal mistake. When that security was lost in the aftermath of political assassinations in the region and authorities failed to safeguard the safety of innocent people, the people rose up to protect themselves. When the pillar of security was lost, nobody in the region had no loyalty to Somaliland as an entity as they never believed in the vision of independence to start with. Secondly, the Somaliland authority failed to read the mood and then enacted their second disastrous decision which was to use military force against the people of Lascaanood and its political entities. The challenge before Somaliland required political solution. Never a military solution. President Muse Bihi Abdi and his political associates in the SNM failed to learn from their own lessons and struggles. When the dignity and safety of others are threatened, the pursuit of justice and dignity will always outweigh and prevailed from any military intervention. This was the case in the SNM movements and this episode in our history is no different. It is in this context I warn against further escalation of violence and appeal for cool heads in Somaliland to influence proceedings in the coming weeks. Military solution was never a solution and is no longer the solution. This issue can only be solved by overarching political road-map involving Somalia and Somaliland. The conflict is a symptom of wider political failure and lack of political reconciliation and trust deficits across Somalia/Somaliland, which has created a fragmented societies and political entities on the edge which has been a bomb waiting blow up. That bomb has gone off in Lascanood in the last eight months and only a political solution would stop further bloodshed, insecurity and miserable future ahead for all. http://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2022/jan/185116/somalia_and_somaliland_a_case_of_post_conflict_troubled_society.aspx http://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2017/apr/141775/somaliland_exhausted_consensus_north_south_divide_opportunity_for_meaningful_dialogue.aspx http://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2021/oct/184124/deportation_of_somalis_is_an_embarrassment_and_a_political_problem_to_somaliland.aspx Mohamed Ibrahim BA/MSc, London School of Economics and Political Science, is a keen writer and social justice campaigner, London based, He can be reached via @Mi_shiine

Whatever talking points can stop the bloodshed and make people(yes tolka) see a different more reasonable and peaceful pathways, the end result is eventually the result of an equilibrium which neither me or others mortals control. And yes there is a sense of concern and anxiousness where things are heading with Somaliland, perhaps even driven by own self preservation, as not all of us live in the comforts of the western, without having to face and live with the realities on the ground, as some of us are inhabitants of this place and thus personally impacted by the outcomes.

Read carefully what I wrote, I am stating that it doesn’t make sense to call for more violence or beat the drums of war, even from the perspective and rationele of those who have completely other viewpoints, it doesn’t make sense to choose the same disastrous path.

It makes sense to restrengthen and reinforce the armed forces, but launching a military campaign without the following, a) having evaluated how things went and what wrong on the SL side, b) evaluate and draw lessons from the last 7 months active campaign, c) think elaborately of and determine a unified political aim and strategy, which military campaign is supporting or underlying to. Is it really to reach Tukaraq and maintain presence or is it a save facing end to this saga giving SL a small victory to close the this chapter. d) Determine the long term goal SL has on the region and it’s claimed border, does it want SSC to become fully part of Somaliland on the long haul or not, does it want to reach those borders on the long haul or not, will Somaliland redraw permanently it’s borders to the new realities and accept a seperate SSC region, or does it see space for diplomatic solutions on the short, middle and long term? e), implementing a structural and consistent strategy to win or atleast soften the hearts and minds of the SSC folks, as they would see any SL attack or movement in to their territory as an existential threat for their existence and survival and would mean another and bigger major defeat against a unified and determined populous fighting an existential threat. And perhaps this time even the broader D clan might get involved as they might perceive a SL attack as a deliberate attack by a clan against their enemies en clan, rather then a political conflict on controls of borders and maamuls. If all these elements are not properly thought through, followed-up on and one doesn’t develop and implement a genuine strategy for the short, medium and long term and SL is simply driven by ‘revenge’ and social pressure to redeem its ‘image’ and other populistic sentiments, then I fear one is sailing towards another disaster and much bigger political, military and human disaster.

Despite decades of investment, training and support in the security infrastructure of Somalia, the governance of this sector is fragmented, disjointed and ineffective. On top of that, it has become an industry that is part of a war economy with to many actors having pertinent interest in the current status wie and chaos to remain. This industry needs to be reformed, while taking short term and long term goals in to account and proving some sort of incentives for the spoilers to be part of that reform process. I don’t get how you can have a permanent impact on security, while unworkable system remains intact. Otherwise, what will happen is Moreno’s this and that you push out AS out of a village, only for them to return as the security governance proved unable to maintain effective infrastructure, control, command and consistency. And perhaps FGS doesn’t realise fully the powerfully potential incentives it has to achieve this, which are or could be structure of command, promotion(darajooyin), training and incentivised financial pay. You can make a portion of the pay incentives based on personal or unit performance. Also I noticed Somalia’s Police and Army don’t have (active) Internal affairs or Inspection units, neither have I seen Military Police being active in keeping oversight. So, why expect change or significant impact if there isn’t any incentives or disincentives in place for neither individual or units. Also notice that there is a false consensus that ‘higher knowledge’ is not required in the security sector, and few of the university graduates and those that get a scholarships actually are invited to come work in this sector, while atleast 10-20% should be higher and foreign educated officers. Don’t think there is anyone with a Masters degree active in the armed forces or plays a significant influential role there, that tells you a lot.

I think both traditional and political leaders from Somaliland and SSC need to deescalate things among broader populous by call people for restraint and to refrain from ‘clan’ based attacks and incitement. You can have a military goal and strategy, while instructing people to refrain from extreme animosity and incitement, as that will contribute little to the rational and results on the ground and undermine any political objective one might have.

This what you get when the ‘populous’ doesn’t get direction, clarity, while it’s getting mixed and contradictory messages. People need directions and moral leadership, specially in this kind of times of confusion, otherwise they might explode and take matters in to their own hands, lead to backlashes and uprisings against whomever. It’s to dangerous to let things run it’s own course.

A war needs to have a political purpose and goal, but a military war for purely ‘revenge’ purposes showcases ethnic or clan based revanchism, and that SL is giving up claim on those regions and its claimed colonial borders. The current ‘popular’ sentiment in the streets should not be the guiding the thinking and decision making.

Think he will try to stay in power even though LA defeat is a big shock and everyone is waiting for some sort of an explanation of what went wrong, and so far no explanation has been given on how things occurred on the SL side, in terms of command, communication and control there are legitimate public questions that have been unanswered.

This would be quite petty though, to stage a small attack in order to present as victory for social media crowds. You’re saying SL wouldn’t dare to go all the way to LA?

More and more dark clouds seem to be gathering in the eastern region of Somaliland, and the drum beats of war can be heard from afar. And one wonders what’s next for Somaliland and SSC regions? Are we looking at a continuing and vicious cycle of war and suffering, a new catastrophe in the making, with more bloodshed, thousands of deaths instead of hundreds, thousands of wounded and paralysed soldiers, thousands of weeping mothers, thousands of mourning families. Are we looking at a repeat or perhaps sequel of the civil war of three decades ago, another path to self destruction, with hundreds of thousands of displaced and refugees, generations of children growing up in refugee and IDP camps, ghost towns, and self created famines? Allah forbid, is this the new pathway for Somaliland and SSC, or is another discourse possible? Have we exhausted all other options? Where is the cease fire, where are the Peace Ergo’s, mediators, committees, and third party delegations, where are the traditional elders, where are the leaders, the mediators , where are the sound minds and rational heads? Have they all been lost to the waves and motions of inciting and emotionally infectious social media, Facebook and YouTube accounts, clips and comments. Have they all been infected, have they all become terminal? Where are the intellectuals, the thinkers, the writers, the poets, that made us reflect, think, analyse and that made us think rationally before we speak, before decide, before we choose and before we act? Let us think and consider alternatives before we act.

Edit your post brother, and remove the name calling, for the sake and fear of allah.

If this is indeed true, then it seems Djibouti is back at it again by undermining SL.

Isn’t Sanaag or Sool home to other clans or even Harti sub-clans when have they decided on the fate or had say in the discourse of those regions. What makes Awdal different from Sool or even Sanaag?

Galbeedi, can you provide the link of the source

There is no Somaliland without SSC. Irrelevant of colonial, provincial or district borders. Carving up Regions, Provinces or Districts along clan and sub-clan lines is not the solution, and Somali’s need to work together in governance of their given territorial realities. Anything less will provide no solution and will only lead to creating further problems and peeling of sub-clan layers as per rationele, dynamics of the very nature of clan Those who might think it would be somehow beneficial for Somalia’s unity and state building to add further 3 or even 5 Northern ‘Maamuls’, ignore the facts and recent experience with 5 or 6 federal member states has paralysed Somalia’s Federal State, it’s unity, politics, governance and security, so adding further divided and poor regions who are further removed from the centre, is a recipe for additional chaos and disaster. And those who think Somaliland without SSC is possible are ignore the real underlying cause of the division, and if not addressed and solved also sub-clans will follow suit in going their own way. I don’t think it’s too late to forge a real inclusive Somaliland in which all clans and regions feel a sense of political equity and equality. A Somaliland that is not based on a single clan narrative (winner takes all), but embraces a shared and common principles through open, inclusive dialogue and reconciliation. A Somaliland that doesn’t deny its diversity in people and opinions, but attempts reconcile opposing views and win the hearts and minds of all its people. A Somaliland that is not at odds with Somalia, but attempts to become the heart of Somalism and all that is Somali. A Somaliland whose relationship with Somalia’s Government and international status is based on rational negotiations and interest, and not on devisive ideologies and language. This is the only workable and feasible pathways for Somaliland.

What’s this map Saalax? Is this Oodweyne Province?Xagaa uga tagtay Hargeisa, Berbera, Sheick iyo Erigavo? Aren’t you owner of those towns, who is the Mayor of Hargeisa, Burco and Erigavo, the deputy Mayor of Berbera, Sheick? Second if you want to create a maamul for HY, isn’t Somaliland HY owned? From Hargeisa all the way to Erigavo miyaaney ya kaga badan HY? So your first option is nonsense, HY already has a maamul, it’s called Somaliland and the only option you have is the second one, put Cirro on the big chair, and the real question is how to achieve that.

Parliament can only propose impeachment but would need 2/3 majority of the Guurti, which I don’t see happening. Change of leadership through election ballots is the only discourse that is feasible.

This is in Hargeisa few days back, women market traders standing up and pleading for peace and bring stop the fighting. May Allah listen to the pleads of the poor and bring this conflict to an definite end, once and for all inshallah.

No Somali would ever accepts defeat, not as long as one is breathing and capable of fighting, and Somali conflicts always continue even if it’s through an endless and never ending tit-for-tat fighting. The question is, if there are other peaceful ways to achieves one’s goal, having the courage to against the dominating narratives, to against group thinking and to against one’s own nature, by choosing a different pathway to break the vicious cycle. And that sir requires a lot courage!

In this current context and narrative, choosing a completely different path of seeking peace would be bold and courageous move, which one is still has a chance to. SNM folks have taken such bold moves against all odds, in the past as well. So, don’t count that possibility out yet!

https://www.youtube.com/live/JsWAFZw8j5s?feature=shared Everyone calling for change of leadership (isbadal maamul), seems nobody trust SL being able to lead a peaceful and political path.

SL must choose a political path, both with SSC and on the elections, as further conflict will lead to further erosion and crumpling of the state and social fibres. And for SSC also there are great risks ahead as it will tested in devising real political strategising coupled with military manoeuvring, putting up defensive strategies while returning civilians and civil life to Las Anod and other places and prevent militias from internal strives. Not an easy task ahead.

I don’t think Muuse is going anywhere for time being, and perhaps he might be able to change gear and choose a political path and peaceful negotiations?