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Everything posted by Old_Observer
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Bad idea. The Somali in Ethiopia can only be respected if as a Somali can compromise and stay together. Otherwise if you divide it for example into 3 then it will not stop there any unhappy sub-sub-clan will go to Addis and provide his services to somebody else and get own shindig. I thought you were of the 5 leg star and now you want to break up one of the legs rather than keep even wobbly one. Ethiopia will never allow the Somali to have powerful Liyu again. There will be endless propaganda of the egregiousness, brutality and most of it no proof, until a lot of Somali say disband Liyu and then its the end of that experiment. It would have been cheaper, more constructive to correct the wrongs, but signal to Ethiopia that they cannot destroy the idea.
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NATIONAL SECURITY, LEADERSHIP, AND SURVIVAL
Old_Observer replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
Ethiopia lost best opportunity with that incident. He was deposed and stayed in Tigray for a year trying to organize a come back. PM Abiy remembered him as greatest opportunity lost. The enemity between Amhara and Tigray went highest with that incident. The British, French, Italians and the Amhara huddled for a week and came up with a plan and overthrew him. The British were aware of everything. He was in Zeila a month before. -
Farmajo: Ethiopia interefed in Somali affairs
Old_Observer replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
Farmaajo trying to score some brawny points from Isayas. As long as Somalia does not stand on its own two feet Farmaajo should forget about hitting while iron is hot for no use and realize that the difference for Somalia between Ethiopian regimes is marginal. There is no difference for Somali between Ethiopia Tigray or Eritrea Tigray. The difference is between them not creation of Somalia. Of course they ally with different clans, but Formaajo should not act based on that. He should not forget as well that Djibouti can have same influence as Eritrea on him and Djibouti can do anything cheaper and faster than Eritrea. -
Everyone makes news of what they wish. Me thinks there is no warrant for Teklebrehan, but he maybe next if they feel threatened. He was Abiy boss at INSA and Abiy served for some time as Director when Teklebrehan went to UK for education. He is the one that sent Abiy to South Africa and the training and education he got. There is no such propaganda on him either even if to be arrested.
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That is the most dangerous thing. Some rebels and youth groups are getting used to being government now. Will be another job to bring them to order. Since the Oromo are trying to fight Ethiopia Tigray with Eritrea Tigray, Eritrea has been the most beneficiary. They have already started distorting business. They will go through same excercise to displace the Eritrea Tigray later. UAE, America are real rulers. What ever the Oromo doing is small potatoes as representatives. Some Oromos are already unhappy of the foreign influence of Eritrea already. For them Xabeshi is Xabeshi. There are 3 Xabeshis..Tigray Ethiopia, Amhara and Tigray Eritrea.
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So far they are not getting participation from many corners. The PM has said he is the transition and no need for transition government. He is the transformation and no need for all party conferences. A lot of groups are outside the loop and already disseminating suspicion that the Oromo are just replacing some of the Tigre and not transforming the country. Abdi Iley has not been accused of any article yet. The Attorney is asking for 14 days each permission to prepare the accusations.
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Thank you as always for a good advice. Actually the Oromo are replacing the Tigray, but still keeping enough Tigray to fend off Amhara. Their problem is the Tigray used the common struggle of all including the Somali people at the top group against past regimes. The Oromo don't have such an asset, so they need more allies that will need negotiation and compromise more than it did for Tigray. It looks like more Eritrea Tigray than Oromo so far in many cases. No body knows why but in few days apart the American and Israeli ambassadors were in Tigray. Nothing happens by chance. Those being arrested are folks of the same feather, not much depth in Tigray itself. Some of them probably would have been arrested by Tigray itself and handed.
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He is. The Government and the Rebel group Jawar supports agreed again to (share power) what euphemistically is called to work together. Jawar has a lot of influence on the ground. The Abiy government is still struggling on the top which is the easy part. The most difficult part will be to bring order in the provinces where the youth have overthrown government and set up committees in a lot of places.
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Muuse Lokal: Axmedoow, meet me, see me, please
Old_Observer replied to Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar's topic in Politics
Very sad to see Somalis to put down each other by saying: My man was seen by Abiy and yours didn't. Ethiopians for the most part are very uncomfortable that Abiy is taking the country to deep into UAE/Saudi side. Very unusual for Ethiopia that survived on opposite groups good will. USSR, America, Britain, Turkey, Russia, France, China...just about everybody. As for Isayas he is your typical dictator who one day expelled the Embassy of Sudan and the very same day gave it to Garang. Sudan had hosted at least half million Eritreans during their struggle. That is the thank you. Simply because the Americans told him to go against Sudan. -
Its rumoured that Isayas has communicated with both Somaliland and Puntland. He wanted to reassure them both and with Puntland the exchange he had with Ade Muse 12 years ago. Dictators are never sure. They try to cover as much as possible.Don't expect a dictator will put all he has with Farmaajo. He also will never cut his relations with ONLF. An insurance policy. The focus is Djibouti then Somalia not the other way.
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The Amhara are so desperate, they welcomed more Isayas than nay of the three. They even forgot they are jumping from Tigray to Oromo and their only hope is Tigray of Eritrea. I hate desperate dictators and opposition they both don't make sense. Its like Ziad Barre begging to signing off anything Kenya or Ethiopia wanted last minute or Mengistu blasting on Radio and TV he will fight to last man last bullet while the airplane to take him away to Zimbabwe is ready.
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Every one of them is trying to show their home base that, they are most important leader of the region. But even ordinary citizens know the reality. Eritrea to wish well to Djibouti is unthinkable. Ethiopia to wish ill to Djibouti is also unthinkable, but st-upid things happen sometimes. Abiy may be too weak and needs Isayas the Eritrea Tigray as part replacement for Ethiopia Tigray. On the other hand only Tigray Ethiopia can handle Amhara. better than Oromo can. The Tigray have the advantage of being original Xabeshi in everything and have better relations with other Ethnics than Amhara can manage.
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Ethiopia is going to always be in trouble. The reason is the way it was formed. It was not formed by its own effort. It was formed as left over of all Europeans taking what they wanted. The only way now Somali Somali alliance can work is by regions. Succeed on all the Regions and no interference. Almost impossible now to have one Somali power. Africans against it, Europeans against it, Arabs against it. Each of them will find a Somali to work for them one who thinks will not benefit from One Somali power. First candidate for close alliance to Somali in Ethiopia should be Afar. There is good will between the two, good general friendship. Similar culture, economy and faith should help. Then its north. South is difficult with all the land issues.
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Globalism is out Everywhere now. The three Amigos talking about globalism lol fake just to hide they are doing somebody's interest. Life is like a pendulum. America took the world by Globalism and now America wants out because the Chinese took advantage of Globalism. Europeans are now headed back to nationalism. Nationalism at its core is Ethnic. The horn now is concerned that missing the consolidation. Even the Amhara in Ethiopia who fought against Ethnicitiy since if it comes to Ethnicity they will be like much lower in the totem pole. What ever you think Amhara is not Amhara. But they are trying to organize as Ethnic none the less. Oromo Somali alliance is a difficult job to handle. General friendship is manageable, but close alliance is difficult.
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That is the problem with all dictators. They do not want anyone around who can tell them they are wrong. This whole dog and pony show is fake, hiding something. Isayas wants to show he is a regional leader, he is the supervisor for UAE and he adds his own personal issues to the project. Djibouti is the single most important country for Ethiopia. then its Sudan. Ethiopians are also not happy that neutrality on Arab affairs is damaged and now deep into UAE/Saudi side.
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wow Look at the picture again. It says a lot. Isayas has only one person who may be his body guard. He speaks for every minister (Eritrea has no proper cabinet anyway). He is the supervisor of this UAE project.
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Mukhtar Roobow being groomed to replace Sharif Sakiin
Old_Observer replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
These pictures make them look like being interviewed. But then American presidential candidates and British and French...go to some lobby groups and do the same. -
They all have as you said monumental too hard even to look at, let alone solve problems at home. In Eritrea's case its a one man show means if threatened by something else he changes in a heart bit or if gone, everything is gone with him. Both Abiy and Farmaajo are seating in uncknown chairs either made of wood that can burn any day or of sponge that compresses and makes them shorter.
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Things becoming so face bookish.
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Trump will respect anyone who has money or stick. Erdogan has bit of both. There is F35 at issue here. If Turkey cancels the project will be at risk.
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Thank you Amigos. This is what I say "you confirmed what was in doubt" These are the most pressing issues for these three: 1. Eritrea has more prisoners than their conscript army estimated 300K 2. Somalia has not moved an inch in constitution, al shabab, next election one man one vote... 3. Ethiopia has 20 million unemployed young. Worst part is now unemployed are even in villages not only cities. This is not supposed to happen, but the villagers have iphones and cannot herd or farm. These are three UAE water carriers for UAE against Djibouti under supervisor Isayas. That is now in the open.
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Ghelleh by some magic will mend fences with US, maybe after this crisis is gone through the Saudis or through Britain. That day he will have the last laugh. Both Abiy and Isayas have millions in Abiy thousands in Isayas young unemployed. Ready tool for anyone to use. Ghelleh seems to be doing good by tribal chiefs of both parts of Djibouti. Ghelleh with Somaliland is what you can call Somali brotherhood, maybe under-handing each other but always business, that both understand. Isayas has list of people in Somalia that should be out of any power even a village. Those from UIC that made peace with Ethiopia. He was humiliated then and dictators never forgive those.
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If that is the case it would be nothing short of brilliant. It would be akin to playing good cop bad cop on someone.