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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. The reformist, the democrat, the Nobel Peace Price, the Americans best choice for religion and group...etc all used up in one year. galbeedi, You are still seeing Tigray shadow and afraid of it. They are very practical people. The Tigray have given up on Ethiopia going anywhere in terms of development the way it is. You cannot buy Cagjar and friends for few months and convince me that the Somali are OK with eliminating Ethnic Federalism or making alliance with Amxara. You know its fake news. No matter how many times repeated. The Oromo that are with Abiy are so scared cannot even speak coherently on TV or Radio. The country is at cross roads again as it has been every few decades for centuries. Every new government starts from zero in different direction than the one before it. Its sad the Oromo have been had by another Xabeshi again the Amxara and now nobody can get them out of this log jam other than the other Xabesha which is Tigray either from Eritrea or Ethiopia. The Somali is no where to be found at this time. After 100 year struggle and some self government, the Somali was taken out of the game at the worst time. in 1990s there were 8 Somali organizations. 4 of them with allies and friends in rest of Ethiopia. 6 of them were determined to have self government at minimum.
  2. This may prove to be so beneficial to Somaliland. Some no name islands around the world have made a killing by recognizing and having diplomatic relations with Taiwan for limited years. All Somaliland has to do is allow the president of Taiwan a stop over when travelling to other places far away. Especially in Computer Technology Taiwan may even be equal or better than China.
  3. I would not worry about debt to GDP or other ratio or even size of the debt. Either through war or reset, it will all be written off soon. Otherwise Ghelleh is smart enough. Has 4 ports. He can give one totally to the chinese for potash or food exports. Or threaten the French to pack and leave (sometimes the french forget they are not the rulers anymore and they are not even no. 2 or 3) and get some debt relief from west and use it for east. The British, Japanese and Germans would pay anything to be no.3 or 4 in Djibouti.
  4. Suldaanka, The only way for Taiwan is to convince their fellow Chinese at least some. The Only way for Somaliland is to convince their fellow Somalis as it became the only way for Eritrea was to convince some Ethiopians. Let alone Africa, look at Kosovo. Almost all major powers recognized it except Russia and China. Yet Russia alone has frozen this thing for years and now even some Europeans countries are changing their mind. Unless you can convince a brother that "its bad to be constantly arguing, fighting, going backwards. so let us go our own ways and try separation" I do not see recognition to come especially from African countries. Other way maybe that your diaspora can get some MPs in UK and other countries and some senator or congressman in US to take it as personal mission.
  5. It might be at lower level but what Tanzanians had planned to do in 2025 has already been achieved 5 years ahead. "We had envisaged achieving this status by 2025 but with strong determination this has been possible in 2020," Magufuli (President of Tanzania) wrote in the tweet. "Discipline in financial expenditure and the prevailing peace and tranquility also helped the country to earn the middle income status from the World Bank," Hassan Abbasi, the chief government spokesperson told a news conference in the capital Dodoma. The World Bank has categorized Tanzania as a lower-middle income country after the country made economic reforms, including making consistent plans and taking hard decisions aimed at improving its economic development, a senior official said on Thursday.
  6. The conflict for districts between Amxara and Tigray is over blown on internet. The reality on the ground is totally different. There is Agew Ethnic all the way south to North border of Sudan, between Amxara and Tigray. The Amxara opposition leader is correct. He should know, since he is main party to claim districts from Tigray. What the Amxara are claiming are not Amxara they are different Ethnic. Who makes Amxara speakers of other Ethnics against Tigray? Does the Agew prefer Tigray or Amxara, if they are not going to have their own and are forced to choose bwtween the two? There is a lot of truths you do not read in most places, unless you look around. The Amxara ruling party cannot win election in Amxara Kilil Abiy cannot win election in Oromo TPLF can win election in Tigray. That is the difference. This has more reason to start war between them than all the districts they talk about on internet.
  7. Its the same in every country. Nobody wants to pay in blood to keep a country borders created some how at some time especially by somebody else. The Progress in Ethiopia went like this: During the Emperor and Mengistu "unity" no matter how fake was something no one can question. During Meles not only can you question, but you can also speak against it if you have some legal basis. Taiwan was the one talking unity 24/7 and PRC was open minded. Now its reversed in just 2-3 generations and not even one generation after Sang Shiek death.
  8. Of course it will be related with Somaliland. Who will pay the debt? New debt. Old debt gets to be taken this way: Soviet Union Russia took all debt but other states cannot claim credit as well Ethiopia automatically took all debt as colonizer or inheritor of colonizers. Ethiopia inherited Italian colony and British temporary enemy liberated territory. Somaliland is responsible for pre-1991 debt regardless of percentage, therefore any issue about it is dependent on Somaliland agreement or being forced accepting. Since debt relief is about almost all pre-1991 debt, then Somaliland will have a say.
  9. Madoobe is hot political commodity. Qatar probably wants to reconcile him with Farmaajo to prevent UAE controlling both of them. Madoobe directly and Farmaajo through Abiy and Afwerki.
  10. Suldaanka, The Somaliland Somalia as mentioned on this thread is nonesense of course, but the examples as faileures you mentioned, I think you are mistaken. China HongKong did not fail. At least not yet. The Americans were trying to replace the tired and exhausted British by some half clever method. The Chinese also used same article 23 which was half clever method for them. Ethiopia would have been a Ruanda or worst in 1991 if it was not for the Regional autonomy. BTW the only ones that are Ethnic and region same are Somali, Oromo, Afar. The rest are all multi ethnic, but you would not hear from the Amxara that their region is supposed to be multi ethnic. Every ethnic is supposed to reach region level and even kilil as it develops economy, education, health services and can support itself.
  11. All the stars are now getting misaligned. Too much reliance on Facebook, US Evangelical Christian Zionists as they call themselves, Afwerki, UAE, Saudi..etc EWthiopia all its history from 19th century has relied on Britain, Italy, France and last times before Abiy on US, China, Turkish, Germany and from neighbors close friendship with Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti, part of Somalia and conflict with Eritrea. All that has changed now in almost one year. Abiy militarily could not convince US Pentagon that he will be worthy of their time and money. Abiy has completely destroyed the economic investments, military cooperation and cultural interactions with the Turkish. The Chinese may be fake smiling, because they have seen how Ab iy could be tretcherous when he thought he could destabilize Djibouti and serve it to America and France. With Sudan Abiy is almost at blows. Abiy tried to take credit for Muhamed Dirir's brilliant diplomatic success. Abiy almost screwed it up last minute, but Muhamed Dirir had a lot of contacts and inside connections there from long ago, even from the days he was rebel underground and even his student days in Syria. Abiy is toast as for achievements in any field, except maybe planting trees, which even that is in doubt. He will stay where he is for the simple reason that there is so much mistrust among the others. Somaliland, Djibouti, Oromo especially western and Tigray/Afar need to be really careful. Abiy could prove to be treacherous along with Afwerki, another one dead waitring someone to take care of him. Eritreans are also so much mistrustful among each other. Half of them would like to serve arabs, half europeans and some America. Half want to be friends with Sudan some want to be friends with Ethiopia..etc..
  12. Something different: Somalia Agenda Changing The Africa Horn Region SOUTHFRONT.ORG DEAR FRIENDS. IF YOU LIKE THIS TYPE OF ANALYTICAL CONTENT, SUPPORT OUR WORK: PayPal: southfront@list.ru, http://southfront.org/donate/ or via: https://www.patreon.com/southfront, BTC:... Somalia Agenda Changing The Africa Horn Region
  13. This was way way over their head for the Farmaajo side. Unlike Abiy or Afwerki Ghelleh never wasted his time on meetings that have no prospect of agreement small or big. Ghelleh had already told Farmaajo that any meeting with Somalilaand should have clear agenda and minimum that has to be achieved. Sometimes could be humanitarian, financial..etc agenda that has nothing to do with recognition. Sometimes its purly how to avoid wars (sub-clan conflicts) since Djibouti has no interest in any conflict. For Abiy and Farmaajo it works to be seen with others and to be seen in big meetings, even meaningless ones. For Ghelleh those kinds of meetings are most dangerous. Lots of rumors, and no agenda or results. Somaliland was in the driver seat. Somaliland never ever was at the mercy of Ethiopia be it Mengistu, Meles, Hailemariam or Abiy. Somaliland has never embarrassed or undermined any Somali, which Ghelleh is probably most significant Somali right now. Remember both Abiy and Farmaajo are UAE servants who would not hesitate to carry water against Djibouti any day, while Somaliland has never carried water for anybody against Djibouti, even when Somaliland could have benefited a lot for example with Afwerki, UAE and even America. galbeedi, The main results Ghelleh wants is for Somalia and Somaliland not to engage in any conflict directly or indirectly and to never work against each other in development of ports, construction, education, health..etc. Somaliland has tangible and practical proposals, Farmaajo and Co had no clue and the team from Mugadishu could not agree among themselves even if they try to read it.
  14. Everyone of the regional and world powers do not mind for Somaliland to be independent state. Not a single one of them have interest therefore, non of them will push for it. The worst part for Somaliland is that Somaliland has never been in the total service of any regional or world power for the past 40 years since the Horn of Africa took shape the way it is now in Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan..etc. Serving others is a profession that needs training and education specifically attuned to it. It also needs propaganda to hide it. Example: Look at Ghelleh and Afwerki. Ghelleh has never been in the total service/owned by any regional or world power. That includes France which has close relations with some Afar Clans, was colonizer of Djibouti for 100 years therefore a lot of multi generational relations. Djibouti got its independence "peacefully" therefore no enmity with France. France still has the 2nd largest and firest most active base in Djibouti. Ethiopia is single customer of Djibouti. 100 times the population..etc. Yet, France and America are balanced in Djibouti, China and Japan/Germany/Britain were balanced and now America and China are both eyeing each other not moving first either of them. Afwerki has gone from Total service to America against Sudan, to Total service of Qatar and now Total service of UAE but if you look at internet, Afwerki is advertised as independent changing allies, but Djibouti is servant of America. That is funny. Among Somalis: Somaliland as water boys of Mengistu, SSDF as water boys of Tigray/Xabeshi, USC as the only independent Somali. Which is the opposite of reality and truth. Truth is: Somaliland was always fairly independent of Mengistu or of Tigray. USC including its leader Aidiid were 100% allied and taking orders of Mengistu. SSDF was closest to Tigray/Xabeshi.
  15. You are correct for almost all the time, but anything involving Djibouti you would be wrong. Oodweyne does not want to say what he feels and knows and at the same time Oodweyne does not want to say things that are not true to him just to be evasive. Oodweyne prefers to absentee himself.
  16. TRO - AJT Wrote: "How anyone in Somalia can call those who allow this to happen in their country anything but a disgrace is beyond me. They are not a government, Farmaajo is no president and none of them are "leaders". Not so long as foreign troops run wild in your country. Tuur, the first Somaliland President, who I'm no fan of whatsoever, wouldn't allow AMISOM let alone the Ethiopian army into Somaliland, even when his country was mostly rubble and different factions were at war. Cigaal likewise would never allow it, fighting the UN & the International Community tooth and nail to stop it." That is one thing every Somali worth his salt admits. The Fact that Somalilanders never even gossiped against a fellow Somali with a foreigner Ethnic. One of the things Meles used to both dislike and admire Somaliland leadership. Somalilanders never gossip against Djibouti or Puntland let alone to be tools of Ethiopia or Arabs against their brethern. Even from the old days, USC was closest to Mengistu many times more than Somalilanders. Somaliland was the only one that gave ONLF 6 months to get their staff in order and stop using Somaliland in war against Ethiopia. Somaliland told the Ethiopian government not to take any action in those 6 months and after the 6 months Somaliland kept their word to Ethiopia, Djibouti and implemented the policy on ONLF military activities. Djibouti and Puntland stopped ONLF immediately not even week of warning was given.
  17. The last person on earth US, UAE and their water boy Abiy would want to help with Somaliland/Somalia talks is Ghelleh. But this was known from the get go. The only person who Somaliland can tolerate is Ghelleh. At the very least Somaliland knows Ghelleh is against any kind of war. When about 6 months ago Farmaajo asked for Ghelleh help to talk to Somaliland, Ghelleh's question was what is the agenda and what is the prospect for any agreement on any subject? Are you going to make announcement that president A. Shiek's agreement with Silaniyo will be respected and implemented. This agreement's main point is that both Somaliland and Somalia will not oppose any activities done with other countries provided the activity is for development. Ghelleh now will get his pound of flesh" from farmaajo.
  18. In the last one and half year: 1. From brother Sissi brother Abiy to uncknown dictator's buddy buddy in hiding, but working poor people to frenzy 2. United States, United Kingdom and Israel that were either neutral or even leaning to Ethiopia have all gone to openly siding with Egypt 3. PM Abiy who only months ago was bragging that he will do with diplomacy what the Tigray were doing by force and threats with Egypt is now given up already and no force 4. UAE and Saudis who are main sponsors puppeteers of Abiy are of no help on GERD 5. Sudan who was 100% siding with Xabeshi is now neutral to closer to Egypt 6. Russia who was neutral and even supportive of Xabeshi is now neutral to siding with Egypt. So much business. Xabeshi has only China that may be neutral, but since Israel is now being pressured to reduce its closeness with China, China may view Suez as future holding. Turkish is only one that can: 1. Be fair arbiter between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt 2. Provide technical assistance to all three 3. Invest in all three, real investment and useful investment 4. Provide Xabeshi with training and joint activities in Sudan and Somalia as well as Djibouti and Kenya That may be one reason General Samora is being courted, since he was very close and also personal friends with Turkish General staff. Abiy is in a pickle now. UAE will not allow any closeness to Turkish. And there is absolutely nobody other than Turkish that has any meaning. How was in one year: Friendship with Sudanese thrown away Brotherhood with Djibouti thrown away Turkish Investments and friendship thrown away Nothing new gained except UAE temporary finance and nobel price.
  19. Major problems in Ethiopia 1. Up to 30 million Ethiopians need food aid 16 million that was identified before coronavirus and about 8 million added recently. These are just the official numbers that have been given to UN, Donors, ..etc by the government. 2. Egypt has made major diplomatic coup to stop or bring to crowl the GERD. Both USA and UK have openly endorsed Egypt's points of negotiations. Egypt is also preparing all its options including those military. Since Abiy came to power all the top brass in Ethiopia is not happy. The Oromos are not happy since Abiy has taken away a lot and given some to Amxara to check the Oromo. Oromo are also not happy since their kilil is not. And the Tigray are not happy generally since their kilil is not happy politically. Perfect timing for Egypt/Eritrea to pressure Abiy to weaken the army even further. 3. The Oromo have not accepted all the consitutional changes Abiy tried to bring through backdoor. That is why it is said Ms. Keria resigned. Abiy wanted to put a Somali, but Abiy had difficulty because the dedputy speaker of senate was already a Somali. So they ended up kicking the one Somali and giving his place to a Southerner. The Oromo are saying that there is no constitutional method to postpone election and also appoint PM. 4. Some sites are already reporting that Gen. Samora has been brought back. I just observed an interview by an Amxara General stating that Ethiopia should reorganize itself for GERD. Another General was explaining from history of more than 100 years ago how Ethiopians defeated Egypt and the Egyptian govt was then fell...etc. Somebody should tell him that times have changed. We are in 21st century. Note. Farmaajo should do the following: 1. Select committee and negotiate about water with Ethiopia. Permanent committee not attached to government. One from each government including Ziad Barre days. As well as lawyers and experienced international agreements and negotiation folks. 2. Pay attention. Sudan and Ethiopia can go to war very easily. Qatar or Turkish will not be able to help make peace. Israel, Egypt, US are all trying to control Sudan. 3. Do not put Somalia in Abiy basket completely. May look strong now, but is not. Secondly Abiy can throw Somalia under the bus for any reason. Stay in touch with Djibouti, Kenya even secretly. 4. Do not agree with Ethiopia for all ports. Negotiate and agree only one port at a time. Start with Kismayo or Bassasso or somewhere in between.
  20. What do you think will happen. I think Sissi will be what else Sissy and make excuses and go back to Sinai, further from what ever Turkish might show up in Libya.
  21. The post has been side lined, because Keria is Tigray. There is now a different commission to work on borders of kilils and also rights of nationalities and conflicts within kilils. That was all House of Federation work. The Amxara did not want a Tigray, Keria to adjudicate the Amxara conflict in their kilil. The Amxara and Abiy also did not want Keria to adjudicate in South. It is not third powerful. It is not speaker of Parliamnet. This is senate like not house of representative. This position has no place in government or power structure. Its exactly a constitutional court.
  22. African useless time wasting propaganda. What happened to unity with Eritrea? What happened unity with Kenya? What happened to integration with Djibouti owning corporations together? Eritrea: 70% of the population of Eritrea and 15% of the population of Ethiopia is the same Eritrea has ports Ethiopia has farm lands and other resources Conflict is one generation, short term affair One regime in Eritrea can decide everything Language root communality is more than 90 percent Somalia: Only 100% of Somalia and 7% of Ethiopia are the same people Conflict is at least a century old There are too many forces and any dealing with Ethiopia is always source of suspicion. Kenya: Only 8% Somali and 1.5% Oromo are common people with 48-50 (Oromo+Somali)Percent of Ethiopia Never had communality of dominant tribes between both countries No Language communality since Somali is not yet formal used language in Kenya. Ports are all too far Djibouti: Shared population with Etyhiopia 100 percent infrustructure ready Two countries or societies never had any animosity even under colonialism
  23. Waraabe is just one of a kind, unique nomad. Let alone Somali leaders like Bixi, Farmaajo, Dini and of course the Don, even Xabeshis used to pay attention or care what Waraabe says. Wish every region every country has one. Of course Waraabe has most enemies. Even if they do not oppose his opinion, they hate him for the fact that he can say it and they cannot.
  24. Poor Farmaajo. Everyone reading him the riot act. Even African water boys of the Arabs are telling Farmaajo what to do. He does not have courage. He should have stayed close very close to Turkish. He got scarede by UAE, Abiy and Afwerki fake power. Farmaajo even went against Djibouti. That showed how cowardly he is. He could have gone with Saudis like Ghelleh did to protect himself from UAE. Look at Somaliland, they stayed with UAE, but did not do anything shameful against Djibouti. Somaliland stayerd with UAE and Saudi side, but did not do anything shameful against Yemen. Too many horses Farmaajo wanted to see, to many trees Farmaajo wanted to climb and sit in the shadow.
  25. Yes, But Indians and Pakistanis has never been in competition let alone at war with their colonial masters. You forgot one very important factor in these cases. Think of what Iran was able to do regarding satellites. It was not focus for Turkish until now. They did not have telecommunication , radio or television problem until now. Now they are starting to have these problems. They can use Russian, Chinese carriers for now and soon build their own. For all the Turkish do for Iranians, they can share and jointly operate this activities. Pakistan also would exchange for some of the many many things Pakistan needs from Turkish. BTW its only matter of money and if profitable Qatar can invest as well.