Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. Suldaanka, But there is no nail to hammer. Puntland has always options. Its just a matter of reurn on investment. As long as Somaliland exists the same way, Puntland is critical for both Somalia and Somaliland. You do not want to Push them South and the South does not want to push them North. That is a fact of life which has been the reality past 30 years and last 20 years openly and clearly. They can also simply choose UAE and follow through and never hesitate about Mugadishu choices and games. UAE will be more than happy to break the sympathy to Djibouti that is obvious. Ethiopia cannot harm Puntland. Its never in Ethioias interest, who ever is in power. Its also easy for Puntland to play games if it comes to it, against Faarmajo. That is easy if it comes to it. Your peace if not your existence is affected by what happens in Puntland. This is what Ghelleh used to say about Kililka, before he rearranged things from his border to Dirdhaba.
  2. 1984 what a bad year that was all of HoA Ethiopia wanted to go for the kill on Somalia and finish it off once and for all. WSLF split in two one side is what became ONLF SSDF disagreed with Mengistu and some were arrested in Ethiopia which also meant no outlet Ethiopia started its work with what became USC, since Ethiopia never felt comfortable with Somaliland Ethiopia had famine that killed up to a million people. The rest of the world saved Tigray from almost sure genocide Djibouti closed the door of joining either Ethiopia or Somalia and went ahead with consolidating its independence by signing agreements that will prevent both Somalia and Ethiopia from even thnking about Djibouti South Sudan renewed their Armed struggle which had cooled down with Federalism and splits
  3. galbeedi, This is a waste of time trial balloon fake news to see if Djibouti and Berbera cry, the once who have to loose the most. Ceylac needs maybe 25-30 billion to make it fit for modern ships and containers, just port and town then Ethiopia needs 5-7 billion dollars for othe other facilities roads, railroads, dry ports..etc What would you do if you were Ethiopian leader? Djibouti almost zero new investment Berbera 400 million at the most which is for the most part roads maybe one year of dedicated work Assab at least 20 billion for port roads done in stages and 5 years Ceylac well 30 billion should give you good statrt. Djibouti will still have more facilities since it has 3 functioning ports, road, rsailroad...already even after investing all that money on others.
  4. This is all trial balloon to keep the citizens of SOL republic talking and learning nothing. Waste of time issues. Let me remind you some trial balloons that the owners and initiators of the news knew has no chance of success or even start up. Oil Pipeline from Eritrea to Ethiopia. UAE/Abiy/Afwerki. Everybody should have known Ethiopia has no refinery. Ethiopia to use Assab port as its main port. UAE/Afwerki/Abiy. Simple question who is going to cough up the 10-15 billion needed to bring Assab to modern ships and containers capacity? Who is goignt to fix road Assab to Addis? Farmaajo will go to UN Arab League, AU, IGAD, Islamic countries....and annul Berbera agreeent. Afwerki/Farmmajo.. There will be war between Kenya and Somalia... Farmaajo will evict AMISOM Ceylac that at least 1000 year old port is same trail balloon fake news.
  5. Che, The worst thing is we are debating on trial balloon. Ethiopia has no money. Let alone thousands of years old Ceylac, Ethiopia has no money to even do small upgrades to Berbera, Assab, Kismayu, Mugadishu....ports that have sme structure already. Djibouti has the most modern ports in Africa. Any Ethiopian with working head should just stick to it and develop additional facilities like railroad to rest of Ethiopia. Everything else about Eritrea, pipeline..etc is all face book propaganda and trial balloon.
  6. galbeedi, The British were doing housekeeping work of their empire. The plan was to create one big Somalia except Djibouti and parts of Kililka and Somaliland all close and bordering to Djibouti. Both Ethiopia and crippled France had no objection as long as French and Ethiopian territories are contigeous and France has no border with future Somalia. Ethiopia wanted everything including Djibouti, but Ethiopia wanted Eritrea more than any other. Ethiopia herself conducts foreign relations only by and through Britain, since Ethiopia was British liberated enemy territory, It was British, SouthAfrican, Somalilanders and Sudanese (British forces that liberated it and Eritrea) The British representative (governor) advised Ethiopians to go for part Somaliland, since the British had determined to split Eritrea between Sudan which is theirs and Ethiopia. Foreign office had determined already if Ethiopia withdraws its claim on Eritrea (Ethiopia is working with Americans on this, but the British found out and gave them bad look. At the end. The one Somalia project failed (by Somalis) Ethiopia insisted with its claim on Eritrea regardless of East Ethiopia was told cannot claim Djibouti since it was 99 year agreement Ethiopia's agreement with Italy on Eritrea had no time limitation, the condition was that whever Italy has no use for Eritrea to return it to Ethiopia. US had opposed wanting independent Eritrea, but Ethiopia promised and gave US what it needed, a communications base. The British had no money or power to implement any of their wishes, and then they run out of time and gave everything to UN and left. Some Ethiopians wanted Ceylac more than Eritrea, since historically Ceylac is oldest port and most used and most famous even in Xabeshi country and Europe. But that is how history is made by seemingly interconnected, disconnected incidents. Ethiopia is without port. No one Somalia Kililka and NFD still remain where they were in 1940s Djibouti became independent country since Ethiopia had Mengistu and Somalia hade late Barre, both dictators, but useless on long term startegic issues and both killed their countries.
  7. Poor Puntland gets blamed for everything under the sun from all sides. They must have done and still doing something right. Puntland faces so much treachery from every angle.
  8. This is African statistics where numbers are set before the start of the count. At 7% growth the population doubles every 12-15 years. Example Kililka now is estimated at the very least 7 million.
  9. Remember that every European country, every gulf Arab country had a terrorist organization in Syria. America had about 10 of them with changing names. Everybody now abondoned their organizations on Turkish lap. Turkey having impossible time to separate them terrorists, rebels, moderates, radicals...etc Can you imagine France and Britain who had the most destructive role blaming now Turkey. Iran and Russia are saying, if Turkey cannot separate them in whole year then we attack everybody. The Turkish were also a bit late in Libya. They knew that Italy, France and Britain are there knee deep. UAE and Saudi are there with their poodle Sissi. Somali young are smart. Except very few in Iraq and Syria nothing heard in Libya, Yemen..etc.
  10. And more than 20 years wasted. Both Somaliland and Puntland should feel bad about these areas and come to some agreement.
  11. Too much work to think and do water wells, micro dams, roads, schools, clinics..... Too difficult to govern 8 million people and especially Somali. The closest people to Somali that are difficult to govern are Tigray. Abitigis is already thinking and full time engaged in Ethiopia. Amxara have called him PM material and he is now 24 hours singing Amxara while cursing and cussing Illey.
  12. How come a single area in the Horn of Africa does not have a Waraabe or someone close to his qualities? The rest of them are so predictable, whether in opposition or in government. Waraabe is an exceptional.
  13. Don't you think Farmaajo has it coming? Don't forget Farmaajo went to Asmara while Asmara is holding Djiboutians in prison and also threatening the border. Even after returning from Asmara, Farmaajo did not go to Djibouti until the Ethiopians have made 3 trips and Eritrea contacted Somaliland and Djibouti. He completely embarassed every Somali.
  14. Shide is probably the best Somali to send to Somaliland and Djibouti. Remember he negotiated and signed the Berbera deal with UAE and Somaliland. Some in SOL were making him to be Oromo at that time. With all his Amxara behind kissing Cagjar remains one pony official, just hate of Illey and everything Illey even the Autonomy. Abiy seems to understand the real power and influence rather than his face book amigos.
  15. Duufaan, What takes you back to the year 1026 and also to 16 century? By some coincidence or incidence the world is full of Ceylacs. Some of them city states, some of them empires, but now small towns or villages. The British offered Ceylac to Ethiopia in the 1950s when they were doing housekeeping and also folding their empire orderly. Ethiopia rejected the offer and went for Eritrea. Look how much that decision has cost Ethiopia? a lost century. BTW I don't think Abiy knows Ceylac even exists. It was the most famous port at one time where Djibouti, Berbera, Assab, Mugadishu, Bassaso, Port Sudan....did not exist. Only Suakin was next to Ceylac.
  16. This is a song that started during Obama years. It was also shown in Wikileaks as far back as Yamamoto was the American Ambassador in Ethiopia. The US senate passed a resolution stating that Djibouti is a national security risk. The problem was always that America has power China has money. America changes Governments, Chinese change countries Now finally it seems America is coming to compete with Chinese with same method. With a Bank and corporations sbsidized with that bank. Hopefully everyone will benefit from the competition. As to Ghelleh there is one more element in the equation. France and Saudi Arabia. UAE hates that both are in Djibouti, since they have more influence on US than UAE does. Britain also is of no help to America when it comes to Djibouti. No body including US wants to rock the boat since no body has control what can happen. As for Abiy, he gets help, but not to the extent one would think. The Amxara are owners of this relationship, which means Abiy looses more with Oromo, the more help he gets from the other side.
  17. Does anyone in the SOL Empire has any idea? The last interaction among Somalis in HoA was: Farmaajo asked Ghelleh to help in dealing with Bixi. Ghelleh asked Farmaajo two questions: 1. What is the agenda 2. What is the expected outcome. Farmaajo had no answers to these questions or he could not share them with Ghelleh. Ghelleh told Bixi that he could not invite two Somalis without an agenda and without a purpose. Case closed. Now Bixi informed Ghelleh the secrets and purpose of the whole exercise and Dini was called immediately. Does UAE or Abiy has some sinister plan that affects Puntland and Farmaajo is looking for Somaliland's help?
  18. Farmaajo simply chickened out. Too scared. I don't blame him. Being in Mugadishu guarded by Uganda and helpless even against simple warlord can do that to you. Especially when the warlords go for weekends to Dubai and he has to go to Qatar. If he had a little spine, he would have been going every week to Ankara instead of Asmara. Qatar and Turkish know this already. Ask yourself a simple question. Ethiopia is now even at this shakey times a multiple more powerful than Somalia and a multiple more influential. Yet Ethiopia could not handle and could not manage to continue realtions with its second investor after China, that is Turkey. How could Farmaajo "play" Turkey/Qatar vs. UAE/Saudi/Egypt Even Sudan could not manage being very close to Turkey and dependent on Saudis. Even sending soldiers to Yemen did not save Bashir. His visit to Damascus was the last straw. The new ruler now already met Netanyahu and Sudan might establish relations with Israel to achieve what Arabs could not. Get off list of terror sponsoring countries. I was amused when most Somali expected Farmaajo to start war against UAE during the signing of the Berbera deal. Some SOLers were emotional wreck over it. Farmaajo just got rid of it very quickly. The security council at UN or IGAD, or AU or Arab League have all been forgotten now. We Horn people are that simpltons no red line no principle just raw emotions. The most disappointing part is when we have lessons for free from other Somalis. How do Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland and Kililka survived without going to war for almost a generation? How come ONLF now made peace and friendship with Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland after all the recriminations of the 2000s? These should have been free education. How could Somaliland maintained for 20 years simply business relations with both Meles and Ghelleh even thought Somaliland knew from the get go that these two men would be the last 2 leaders on earth that will give formal recognition to Somaliland?
  19. Oodweyne, You have raised questions that are the basis for any decion maker, thus beyond me, but let me give it a go from what is known instead of attempting projections and assumptions which I will definitely fail. 1. For America anyone is an alternative to Djibouti. Eritrea, Sudan, Somaliland..etc the difference is only a degree. America can move to Yemen as well and if they choose that will be solving Yemen in less than 6 months. But regardless, America will not leave Djibouti for Chinese and even French and others. 2. If UAE plan is to use Berbera and Assab to kill Djibouti, then they are getting into uncharted territory. Eritrea does not want Assab more than Massawa. 90% of their population is near Massawa and half of Ethiopia even part of Sudan and South Sudan can use Massawa far more economically than Assab. For UAE Massawa will need atleast 15 Billion to make it port for 21st century level. Assab may need half of it. Fundamentally Berbera and Assab have the same problem. Political status and questions of uncertainty.In Eritrea its one old man and Somaliland all neighbors do not want it to be independent. For Somalia Puntland will follow. For Ethiopia Kililka will follow and for Djibouti its simply life threatening among brothers. Instability in Ethiopia is also very critical. Ethiopia has made 4 revolutions/drastic change in one century. The next one is around the corner. One draught season, one Ethnic conflict..away. 3. Abiy would have wanted to kill Djibouti, but will be pipe dream. He can only move Ethiopian business from Djibouti to Berbera. Businessmen would rather pay more in Djibouti rather than cheaper Assab. Never forget that Ethiopia has used Djibouti through 4 revolutions, through 2 world wars without a single failure. Imagine that in Africa. That is unique. Ethiopia used Djibouti even when it had Eritrea for 40 years. Some kind of connection there. 4. China has invested a lot on Djibouti Ethiopia "silk" road most of it is Ethiopian debt, since Ethiopia has to guarantee business for certain time for all that development to go on. The west has no money to invest, Arabs have no techology to give. China has both if they recover from this Coronavirus attack fairly OK. 5. Iran US war seems to be ON. America is increasing its force, Israel and Turkey are weakening Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Egypt is trying to survive and suez is key. That can change everything in a heart bit, consequences of which I can't even understand let alone to guess what would happen to HoA and Yemen. Somaliland is on correct path. 1. 20% of Ethiopian business is more than enough for a decade. Just make that happen and do not throw away a guaranteed income looking for possibilities fraught with danger. Djibouti would be elated if Somaliland takes everything rather than Eritrea. That you can take to the bank. There may be some unhappy Somali businessmen, but this interest for Djibouti is cast in stone. This was determined and is well accepted from the Days of Meles. IOG never hesitated on this, whether in love or hate mode with Somaliland. Somaliland nneds to convert Farmaajo or who ever comes to the likes of Ahmed Shiek and Abdulahi Yusuf. Both understood and strictly followed the priciple of live and let live. Ghelleh had good influence on both. No war in that part of the Horn. Somaliland has to make sure there is no war around it. War is an easy way for foreigners to influence and also war is unpredictable. Abiy will not be successful to achieve the control that the likes of Meles had. If every Somali is to accept and speak truth, Somaliland is the only one that never gets to close to any dictator or "democracy" around. Both Djibouti and Ethiopian officials can testify to this. Even Illey found this out very early. Now you can see how Somaliland dealt better with British than others and why Puntland went to war with Italy. Both achieved the same result..an autonomous way of life, but both achieved it by different means and methods. Abiy maybe trying to get Somaliland and Eritrea together, but you and I know that is impossible. Afwerki would never ever accept Somaliland. Somaliland formally recognized or not, will never be enemy with Djibouti in your or my life time. Faarmajo has not much to offer to anybody. He spoiled the little thing he had and used it against Djibouti. He will pay a price for that and he is not going to know it or see it coming. Afwerki has very little to offer to anybody as well. No economy. He can offer some soldiers as its very cheap and easy to do in Africa. Never forget that: Eritrea is in the red sea only and not in the two critical gates directly. Somaliland is on the red sea and gulf to Indian ocean both open. If suez or Bab el Mendeb closed Eritrea is useless, Somaliland is not. That is very crucial. The reason the Tigray chose Djibouti/Somaliland/Puntland is that 1. They have forever enmity with Egypt 2. Since their economic future was to the east, better have something that Arabs cannot fully control and is open to east.
  20. galbeedi, If Farmaajo with Abiy/Afwerki sponsorship does not start war with any region, for the re-election, that would be a big accomplishment. If he starts one then he will take Somalia a decade back and this time no SFG can be put together, since some regions will simply give up. 30 years is more than a generation. I would say, don't give up on him completely. He may leave peacefully. He is using Qatar money to do UAE work. That is very complicated since Arabs are not forgiving. He failed the Turkish plans fantastically. Worst than being anti-Turkish. Too scared of UAE. He cannot even say verbally against anything remotely anti-UAE while being sponsored by Abiy/Afwerki. How could anyone expect Farmaajo to do anything that disappoints UAE or Saudi? Impossible.
  21. This has become legend or is so taken for truth from so much repetition. Nothing is further from Truth. Next to Djibouti Somaliland is actually the most Somali when it comes to Ethiopia. So much false information we carry. Example: USC folks are considered most anti-Ethiopia. I always laugh when I hear almost all people peddling this lie. Among the rebel organizations USC was so close to Mengistu, Ethiopia paid its own money, sent two officials to bring Aidiid from India to lead USC. The only purpose was to counter balance against Somaliland, since SSDF was suspect as Mengistu had information of their contacts with WSLF/ONLF and Tigray. Who called Ethiopia after 91 to Somalia. The person was General Morgan the group take your pick. Ethiopia did not vanguish Aidiid from SW since they were Mengistu people, vanguished them after they and their opponents burned food storage. That was the incident as to why Ethiopia evicted Aidiid and the other groups (no fighting left themselves). What did the warlords in Mugadishu do when ICU started. They set up anti-terrorist alliance. Who did they call first. Ethiopia. Meles was never close with Somaliland other than business and education for Somalilanders in Ethiopia. ONLF: Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland told ONLF that they cannot use as base to fight against Ethiopia. Somaliland gave them 6 months. Djibouti and Puntland wanted ONLF to stop using them as base immediately. Anyone can confirm this with ONLF leadership of the time. etc.. The truth or facts show the opposite of the false belief most people have.
  22. UAE has been in Eritrea for more than 2 years now. Asab is their base for the war in Yemen. They will not invest much unless they want to abandon Berbera or to be used for Somalia and limited volume for Ethiopia., since almost all Ethiopian business prefer 1. Djibouti 2. Berbera 3. Bassaso (but now there is already a concertium raising money to build another port in Puntland closer to Somaliland so as to use same roads for most part) Djibouti is guaranteed for minimum of 65% for decades. If Berbera takes 20% according to plan when the deal was signed. Eritrea can only compete for 15% out of which Sudan will have definitely a share, Kenya Puntland and rest of Somalia. Kismayu was high on the prospectus at one time around 2006. Whatch out Berbera. This is africa. Dictators and Arabs are best for snap decisions.
  23. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=256&v=nAgJAxkALyc&feature=emb_logo 1. One man a president can restore America 2. Make America great again 3. Lincoln would never have been elected since he never smiled and bad for television age 4. I don't want to run now, its very visious for persons like me who have ideas of their own and your own brain
  24. Che, galbeedi, There is one fact that can show you the extent of Abiy power. If it was up to Abiy and his masters UAE/America he would have already shut down Djibouti and used Eritrea. Ethiopian businessmen said NO. Wanted the pipeline to go to Eritrea instead of Djibouti. Combination of China and some Ethiopian opposition said NO. I am sure Cagjar will not even complain, but Illey had made it clear that development in Somaliland ports roads dry port is very beneficiary to Kililka even for its autonomy and control of Ethiopia's access. Abiy probably went to UAE to beg the Arabs to pressure Bixi. The reason is not Somalia, but how to cut Somaliland Djibouti modus vivendi. They tried false flag conflict inorder to make the Ethiopia Djibouti roads less safe, did not succeed. So far Arabs, Afwerki, Abiy and America have nothing to show for the changes in Ethiopia other than Tigray are out of Addis Ababa, which a lot of the old fighters have been wanting, since a lot of Tigray were working for Ethiopia and not Tigray and can be kicked out anytime. Ethiopia is still under China trap so America did not gain much. Djibouti is still the same, so America did not achieve anything there against the Chinese..no color revolution, no tribal conflict.. UAE did not achieve much either. Has delayed some projects the Tigray and Ghelleh had, but not much succeess for UAE.
  25. All those that said Farmaajo is hero, nationalist...yada yada are those who have lost confidence. Every little sign makes them euphoric. In Ethiopia there is the same group. The Amxara. They have had a 100 Mandellas, Kennedy, MLK, Roosevelt only six months or year later to make them down to zero and blame them for all failures. From Hero to Zero is a few face book posts distance. People who shout praises of someboy untested are usually people without criterion. You need a checklist to at the very least give someone the benefit of doubt. You need red lines. Afwerki would have welcomed nothing more than Somaliland to visit Asmara. Never done. The reason is simple. Even as you knife each other with Djibouti, you are not willing to humiliate or try to humiliate Ghelleh. He knows this very clearly. I am sure Ghelleh has thanked Bixi and Silaniyo..others for this. Ghelleh may not be a democrat, if there is such a thing in HOA, but he is always a Somali. To the extent that he can, he will never humiliate another Somali with a non Somali. Even after their problems about Aarta conference, Abdulahi Yusuf requested that Djibouti lead and command the forces that were to come from Djibouti, Ethiopia, Yemen and Sudan in 2006. Ghelleh prepared a Brigade including some militia from Kililka for the purpose. The deal fell apart in Mugadishu with warlords and clans reneging. What was the criterion that made Farmaajo a nationalist? None just face book postings.