Old_Observer

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  1. If Moodabe is re-elected that will be the end of the story for some time to come, until all the other forces can find a means of alliance, which is difficult to do at this time. Farmaajo strategy becomes obvious at this point it involves Al Shabab in one way or another. Most likely not to affect Shabab or use them to plug some of the holes, in the plan.
  2. People are thinking now from the opposite. What would happen if Moodabe is not re-elected? If you don't have an answer to taht then close your nose and re-elect Moodabe and move on. Accusing him of friendship with Kenya while sitting on Ethiopian arms is disrespecting the people and meaningless. Faarmajo better realize that SWS and Jubaland are different. PM Abiy also should realize the same facts. SWS do not have a powerful community or organized force in Ethiopia. Jubaland has a very impactful force.
  3. This will end up creating unsolvable friction between Farmaajo and Moodabe. It may extend to further institutions. The objection for having neighboring countries in 2006 was precisely for that reason. Ethiopia is trying to hit two birds with one stone. Jubaland and Kililka. The Os including ONLF are determined to have solid base and home base in all 3 countries. Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya. All three countries policy to each other will be influenced, if not determined by the Os. That is now almost a reality. Ethiopia and Kenya are trying to shift their relations to the Oromo and Somalia and Ethiopia are trying to shift to the other regions, other than Puntland or Jubaland. This is bound to fail. Farmaajo should have tried by using Djibouti instead of Ethiopia. Any Somali should never forget that Kenya and Ethiopia will never be opposed to each other. As a matter of interest.
  4. If it takes more than 20 years t write a constitution and get it ratified somehow either by representatives vote, direct vote, state's vote..some way, then this is more than logistics problem. Its intentional even with current government. They ousted a speaker saying he was obstacle to constitution wok, did few show meetings in Mugadishu and when the news cycle expired they threw the constitutional file as well.
  5. Hopefully the meeting with Sudan included the issue of Somalilanders studying in Sudan and more of it. Sudan has best uiversities better than Ethiopia or other east african countries.
  6. Its a bad day when you see Somalis competing to demonstrate who is more Ethiopian. What Cagjar is doing is just that. So far the good thing is after 10 solid years of cultural, educatinal, media, development plans, security..autonomy the Somali will not lose it for the benefit of the Cagjar and Co.
  7. Here we go another long term headache being brought to Somalia for some short term problem. Allowing Ethiopians to deal with district level issues in a neighboring country. Once you invite Ethiopians down to minute issues, you allow or invite them to interfere at will even when time comes you do not want them to do so. This is also unmitigated disaster for Ethiopia, being done for temporary relief to PM Abiy. What ever happens in Jubaland will happen in Kililka. The litle support PM Abiy has among Somalis in Kililka will be even more shaky after this news makes its way to Jigjiga and Addis. Bad idea, bad steps all the way. Ethiopia and Kenya may go about it diffeently, but have no different security interests
  8. It could be that TPLF wants to give prominence to the rising star Getatchew Reda, since TPLF agenda and decisions became EPRDF decisions. 1. Election should be held on time. This has angered PM Abiy himself and his close friends in G7 and Eritrea. 2. Amxara party wanted meetings with TPLF to solve problems, but TPLF refused and stated that any meetings should be public and agreements and disagreements public. 3. ODP is weak in Oromia and ADP is very weak in Amxara, but TPLF is strong in its home base. The opposition everyone of them in Oromia and Amxara agreed with TPLF that election should be held on time. This has already created panic in the parties that thought election should be forgotten. Election should be held under this constitution. Others including Abiy wanted to change constitution before election. They failed. Agjar was on the fence leaning to postponment. He was wrong by Somali interest.
  9. Cagjar is too focused on himself and his future in Ethiopian politics. He should focus on the Afar, Oromo and South which have direct impact on the Somali and interaction with the Somali people good or bad. The Amxara are too far away geographically, too different from the Somali in interest, culture, language..etc. The closer he gets with the Amxara who are anti-federalists he divides the Somali and weakens. Generally is good idea to have peace and friendship with everyone possible, but the Somali is not an insider in Ethiopia. No matter the size of the population or location, the Somali is not best positioned to mix it up between Amxara and Oromo. Agjar is also acting against Illey and Illey shadow, but in doing so weakening and destroying things that Illey did that were good for the Somali. As galbeedi mentioned even the broadcast is now getting diluted with programming that has nothing to do and no benefit to the Somali.
  10. If that makes your day. The war was lost since it became an invasion of Ethiopia instead of a liberation of the Somali people from Ethiopia. Too big of ego and too much belief in power of guns played in the head of late Barre. It would not have mattered. Even if the Cubans or Russians or Germans did not come, as long as its an invasion would have been reversed a decade later or be another Cashmere. The organization, the name, the open Somali Republic soldiers...was all wrong. This is not a reason/excuse after the failure. Late Barre was told clearly before the start.
  11. One of the gravest acts of Farmaajo with Ethiopia is actually what happened in SWS. Arresting a leading candidate, using Ethiopians, remove him from competition. The payback for this will come in another form and then most of you will be accusing some group of allying with Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somaliland, UAE or Qatar..etc. Madoobe was a personality long before Jubaland and Kenya interference. How did he become successful and How did he get to be allied with Kenya? Was he not accused of UAE? Was he not accused of Ethiopia? All this comes, because its easy to speak about Kenya, Ethiopia, UAE or others. Its very uncomfortable to talk about the real underlying issues and trying to solve them once and for all.
  12. Ex Camel trader across Libya, Sudan, Chad, Former Janjweed commander, now RSF commander is deputy of Military council. Minawi the Darfur rebel leader and Hammeti the RSF commander now have common lobbyist with Haftar in Libya and both Sudanese are now supporting Haftar in Libya with soldiers. Who got them together...Dickens and Madson...Lobying firm. Hameti and Minawi met in Chad. Minawi who never made peace with Al Bashir is now making peace with Janjeweed commander. Cruel world for the nomads across Darfur, Chad, Libya... Sudan's military sidesteps protesters with lobbying and rallies WWW.MIDDLEEASTEYE.NET With $6m deal, Sudan military turns to foreign powers and a British-era tribal system to recognise its authority
  13. This is indication for the level the situation has reached. For a businessman to risk this openly and as MMA indicated for this long, shows the frustration among Somali. But on the other hand, that is the trend now a days even in the west. Long live the tribe. We tend to forget that the Somali is a very big people and cannot be cohesive. Interests differ based on geographic location, which again is very big as well, natural resources which is also varied from agriculture, nomad economy to oil to ports. Many Somalis see the people as small community that can stay together around some impractical ideas. Its big population, big land/s, many countries...
  14. This article reads like science fiction. It shows clearly how corrupted the world is. The sad part is its all real. Iranian born, Israeli intelligence person, Canadian lobbying firm founder, represented Haftar and another year a secret group in Tripoli and the year after Gaddafi clan...all in a days work each paying from 2 to 6 million at a time. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/haftar-hemeti-and-lobbyists-libya-connection The same story continues unabated after overthrow of Al Bashir and transporting 1000 RSF to Haftar through Eritrea. Commander of RSF is deputy of Military council in Current Sudan government. Again another seeming fiction, but real. Telephne conversation between Haftar and Trump..etc can be had as anti-terrorist front. Sad but funny. https://www.aljazeera.net/news/politics/2019/7/24/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A3%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%AA%D9%8A
  15. The new Amxara president is already at work how to reconcile with Tigray. He cannot have peace in his Kilil without making peace with Agew, which the Amxara accuse are Tigray 2. The Agew are almost half of Amxara kilil population. The statistics are wrong because Agew were taken out of the list in last 2 census. Most of Amxara kilil is governed with warlords right now. The Amxara influence on Oromia is almost half, but Amxara influence on Tigray is next to zero. Tigray influence on Amhara is more than half and Tigray influence in Oromia is still big, since the opposition are more influencial in Oromia than Abiy and the opposition are closer to Tigray on federalsim than to Amxara.