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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. He is doing the right thing. Keep order and organizaton in the Somali region, pressure the federal government (military and police) to protect Somalis outside. Sad there is loss of life, but one has to consider the other option. The Oromo will very quickly realize that they are cutting their hands their feet themselves for a long time to come for a 2 year "glory" in the media that blindly supports them. Why do you think the Amhara are awfuly quite? They are waiting for the Oromo to do all the dirty work for them, and when the Oromo are isolated and come to their senses, will be too weakend to resist Amhara leadership. It may or may not work, but the Amahara are a lot smarter. Even Gonder city where they killed and expelled Tigray are awfully quite now after the Agew got autonomous zone from Gonder. They very very quickly realized that lesson without any retaliatory acts from Tigray. What Tigray did with Gonder (patience even at loss of life) has now brought a solution that will be there for forceable future.
  2. Not on the EPRDF executive. The Somalis and Afar are called Allied parties. But both the Somali and Afar have their places in the federal government which is the executive in the country. The Oromos are missing one very important point in federal system. A small province or region can stop the most populeous region. Prince Edward Island in Canada can stop Ontario (half the population of the country) since all provinces are equal. All nationalities in Ethiopia are also equal. The facebook and twitter leaders of the Oromo, which the regional Oromia government seems trying to use it as well, are telling the mob that since Oromos are 40 million Oromo should be majority in federal positions. There cannot be a more stupedest argument than this. If the Oromo take positions as per their population numbers, then there will be a 80 nationalities under them. It blows up in their face the next day. That is not how it works in any multi-ethnic federation or like UK. If one uses the Oromo logic, there would never be a Scottish, Welish..prime minister or cabinet minister in the UK, since the English are about 50 million of the 60 million UK population. If the Oromo leaders think this works for them, they are in for a catastrophe where every other nationality will not accept their rule and of course ruling others by force is unthinkable even with 40 million of them. Even logistically their region is from Sudan to Somalia a thin twisting snaking region. Patience is a vrtue for the Somali, which they seem to have now at the right time, since other nationalieties have already started questioning the Oromo (from south). In my view, don't panic, be prepared for worst, but do not get ahead of the Oromo. Let them lead themselves to the destination they intend. The northern parts of Ethiopia Tigray, Afar, Agew/Amhara (except some around the capital), Benshangul is also showing patience, not reacting.
  3. Che, The Somalis have 23 seats. On the General issue the Somalis actually have the best seat in the house in Ethiopia. Next best seat are the Afar. Both the Somalis and Afar are each one Ethnic regions for the most part. They both are the only gateways to all of Ethiopias import export. They are both fairly organized to have order within their region. If the SHTF the Somalis and Afar are the best position to come out fairly safe (if there is anything called safe). The Oromo are using mob rule to gain more influence, but you know what mob rule is that someone else can use it too. That is what will end up happening very soon. Never count on mob to achieve anything worthy or futuristic. A small organized pressure and firm on objectives is always and always preferred and in this case only choice. Mob rule is easiest to hijack for anyone who has money, smarts and these days even facebook or twitter account and the whole thing can blow up in ones face. If the mob for example gets out of control and becomes Ruanda, its the end of those that started the mob. Those who started the mob in Ruanda not only lost control of it, but lost everything in terms of even participating in their country's affairs. All neighboring countries suspect them. Same thing in Ethiopia, everyone around the Oromo has now become suspicious. As long as a region is fairly organized to keep internal order, it can declare its independence in a heart beat and who do you think is going to stop it. The Oromo are counting on numbers, forgetting that Eritreans were only 2.5 million when thay paralysed Ethiopia and when 6-7 million at the time (Somali, Tigray and Afar) joined them it was all over.
  4. wow..Iran The truth is Turkey has the most influence both in Somalia and Ethiopia on how they navigate in this Qatar-Saudi/UAE. I guess mentioning Iran gives another fake politics of Shiia vs Sunni. In this gulf fake squable the modus operandi is "you are either with us or with our enemy". I am nuetral in this instance means I am with Qatar, which is the right choice, because of Turkey.
  5. How did this happen and when? Oromos put down each other as Tigray lapdog RIP Al Turabi once called Al Bashir as Weyannie (Tigray) Amharas call each other for put down as Weyannie (Tigray) and say "If it was not for you (Tigray) we had all in the right pecking order, but you brought so many no name peoples to local and federal in the name of federalism, see now you are getting us killed" Mr Odinga accuses his government for letting the Tigray do what ever they want inside Kenya South Sudanese accuse each other as to who is more Tigray Lap dog Somalis accuse each other and is a great put down of the same. Illey is actually doing the best thing that can be done in the current horn of Africa situation. Establishing and developing a government, an economy, health and educational infrastructure which is always useful for whatever happens; a strong Somali state in Ethiopia, an independent country or even a strong state in Somalia. The friendship between Somali and Tigray for those of you resonable and can research is long before Illey was born and the late RIP Abdulahi Yususf was a witness to that. Here is what he said --It is not my place to give opinion or proposal as I am president of Somalia and my brethren are a region in Ethiopia, but if I must suggest, it would be for them to maintain peace and build their region--(I do not have the direct quote right now, but clearly remember his speech in Baidwa). In Eritrea the demonizing Weyannie Tigray is a 24/7 occupation in their broadcast, websites and even going to other countries websites. Both the Saudi side and Qatar side have been courting Ethiopia until now, but looks like UAE has given up, because Turkey (good friend of Tigray lol), had an inside track and achieved a number of agreements between Qatar and Ethiopia. Some more Tigray blaming and accusation and terrorism coming Tigray's way and finance for anyone. This Tigray Tigray has become same as Russia Russia in America. Its not healthy. It blinds one from being a realist and hopeful and purposeful. It is also mostly none sense. As America has to deal with Russia, so do Somaliland or anyone else, not only in the horn of Africa, but in Africa and Middle East. After all Ethiopia is a significant country poor or not.