Old_Observer
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Posts posted by Old_Observer
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19 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:Camey, a Northerner representing SOMALIA in ETHIOPIA.
First task, to close all secessionist offices.
Ethiopia will open second office in Puntland.
Somaliland has never been attached to any group in Ethiopia. They can work with any group since they always keep their distance even with Meles.
Let alone the Addis people even with Kililka is the same. Somaliland was never too deep and dancing with anyone. Just good working relations.
There is something called pride that comes from governing oneself. No matter how much money or recognition they have Ethiopia for Somalilanders is just another country. Of course I am a bit exagerating, but you know what it is.
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Arab gulf already making up and fast
Saudi, UAE and Bahrain now competing who kisses with Qatar faster.
3 weeks now media in those 3 countries have stopped their "Qatar Terrorist" songs
All 3 countries just confirmed they will send their teams to the Kalij competition in Qatar. Remember any sport related to Qatar was banned even on TV.
Lets see now SOLers who were talking so much during the Berbera port days...explain.
There will be so many Africans from dictators to Nobel price winners holding empty bags.
Do not make a mistake again. Its not Qatar versus others..the winners are Turkey and Iran
https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/qatar-and-saudi-arabia-cold-peace -
On 11/13/2019 at 9:37 PM, Che -Guevara said:Abiy may be realizing that his main supporters the Amxara Gurgae are not reaible and also the weakest. Most Oromos support the Sidama to be a Kilil.
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17 hours ago, galbeedi said:Ciilkuu Soomaali oo dhan buu hayaa, ama Awdal , Bari iyo Burco ha joogee.
This one is just a pressure group. If this kid from Ceelafweyn and Burco wishes more wars, certainly he will get someday. In Awdal we need to build ports and roads at the moment , that our the priority.
I wish people would focus in building economy, social and cultural activities, even when governments are not that good. 24/7 focusing on political and war has brought nothing in the last 100 years.
These areas that were between French, British, Italian and Ethiopians, should understand this and change their way.
They should at least think of food security. Winning water well fights leaves both poor, dead and wounded and unnecessary enmity as result.
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On 11/2/2019 at 4:23 AM, maakhiri1 said:Meesha belo kasoo socota oo ay uyeeran, Somali Galbeed should be ready to break away
All the instruments that can enable Kililka to withstand any eventuality are being dismantled in favour of unitary Ethiopia.
Even the eduacational system and media are under relentless attack, being accused of being Illey separatists.
If the Somali has autonomy:
1. If stays in Ethiopia gets respect
2. If Ethiopia fractures the Somali can make choices calmly and orderly.
What the Amxara hated the most was autonomy.
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There is nothing Farmaajo would not do or agree to inorder to avenge the humiliation he got in Puntland, SWS and Madoobe.
Some of you may think Farmaajo won in SWS, but it was more humiliating than even what Farmaajo lost in Jubaland or Puntland.
Using Ethiopian soldiers to arrest your opponent in your own country and kill civilians in the process...is more humiliating than attempting yourself and failing in your own country.
The humiliating defeat in Puntland was also big. Abiy withdrew the consulate from Garowe to give propaganda musle to Farmaajo. Puntland response was priceless. Abiy had to return his counsulate running, hiding, bowing.
If Farmaajo had agreed with Kenya to build a school, to clear and make the border properly functional...etc everyone would have respected that. But when the sole purpose is to avenge against Moodabe, nothing good will come out of it.
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On 11/11/2019 at 6:01 AM, Suldaanka said:That is when the men were men, self respecting and far sighted as well as sacrifice benefits.
The case of Yemen and thr roles by all Somalis from every there is also similar to what Somaliland did then.
Both Sissi and the Janjewid are now regreting what they did in Yemen for few sucks of money.
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17 hours ago, Alpha Blondy said:tolow what is their ultimate aim?
I think you are asking a question nobody wants to hear.
Even nomad water well fights are now elevated to geostrategic wars.
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8 hours ago, Suldaanka said:Presentation by GE regarding SL-10B block, GE has identified from the siesmic data around 12 separate oil fields in the block. With a combined conservative estimate of 1.4 billion equivalent barrels of Oil and initial production capacity of around 50,000 bpd.
GE will start drilling for oil in Somaliland in 2020 and is planning to truck the oil to a new Crude Oil Storage facility to be established near Berbera Port. The Crude oil will be shipped to UAE for refinement and eventual selling to the market. Hopefully by 2022, Somaliland will be joining the Oil producing nations.
https://www.genelenergy.com/media/2333/genel-somaliland-aow-presentation.pdf
Oil anywhere in Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti...is all bad news at this time. Its like opening a new front as if there are not enough already.
Give contract to Shell and you have Elf financing a sub-clan rebels..It is not worth it at this time.
Ethiopia had oil contract with American company when oil in Saudi Arabia has not been found yet. The British overthrew the prince of Ethiopia and that has been Ethiopias pain to this day.
The Prince was supported by Somali, Afar, Northern Oromo, Agew and Tigray and the other prince later King Haileslassie was supported by British, French, Amxara and Central Oromo.
For 100 years the alignment of forces in Ethiopia has not changed, from the hatred and feeling of being cheated at that time.
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14 hours ago, Xamarawi said:MOGADISHU (HOL) - Contenders in the South West elections last December spent between $5000 and $8000 for each of the 82 MPs to secure a win in the hotly contested polls, a UN report has said.
According to the just released UN Panel of Experts report, thousands of dollars changed hands before and after the elections that also saw the killing of up to 15 people ahead of the December 2018.
“The Panel received multiple reports indicating that 82 South-West State Members of Parliament were flown to Mogadishu in early November 2018 to receive an initial payment of approximately $5,000 each, in exchange for their support for particular presidential candidates,” the report notes.
Violence erupted ahead of the elections when former Al-Shabaab number two Mukhtar Robow was arrested by Ethiopian forces and flown to Mogadishu where is still under house arrest.
After the polls, the report says, the MPs received between $2000 and $3000. Abdiaziz Mohamed Laftagareen, the federal government’s preferred candidate was elected president.
Cases of bribes were not only restricted to South West. In Puntland, candidates splashed between $30,000 and $70,000 to influence the elections held in January this year and in once instance an MP was offered $15,000 to step down for another candidate, the report says.
I know a few SOLers celebrated when Robow was arrested by Ethiopia and taken out of the running, but that incident has already proven how catastrophic it was and more consequences yet to come.
The fact that Jubaland closed the door from beginning was direct result of what happened in SWS.
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17 hours ago, galbeedi said:According Somali police officers the security of Shariif Ahmed and Hassan Sheikh must be beefed up.
According to Caasimada news:
“Saacad walba ayay Shabaab beegsan karaan. Ka sokow Shabaab, dalka waxaa ka jira khilaaf siyaasadeed oo xoog leh dilalka iyo weerarada dhacana kaliya ma fuliyaan Al-shabaab ee waxaa jira falal argigixiso oo ku lug leh siyaasadaha is diidan oo ay geestaan dad la yaqaano balse loo saariyo Al-Shabaab waxaana ii muuqda in hogaamiyaashaasi ay dayacan yihiin” ayuu yiri sarkaal sare oo ka tirsan Booliiska Soomaaliya oo aan qarinay magaciisa iyo xilka uu ka haayo Booliska.
God forbid if the enemies of Somali target these two men and harm them in a deadly way, it will create a new civil war. Al=shabaab and other unknown killers deliberately saw discord, suspicion and distrust among the people to further their evil plans. THe government must assist fpr the security of these two former presidents who acting and moving just like any other private citizens.
THis is a warning.
Does that mean Farmaajo and company are enemies of Somalia?
If I ask who benefits the most by doing this, the answer always comes Farmaajo and Co.
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What is happening with the constitution file?
Everybody knows money was not an issue. Everybody knew when Kyre and others ganged up to throw out the speaker, that it was not the speaker preventing the constitution work, but the government. They accused and blamed the speaker of exactly what they were doing ..get rid or kick the can forward the file of constitution.
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On 11/5/2019 at 1:15 PM, Mourad1 said:Abiy's narrative of creating a "New Ethiopia" might be the most rational one, however, it will not be the one most people will gravitate to. Amxaara and specifically Oromo are exploring their newfound freedom of expression. As a result, extreme narratives will dominate public interactions and airwaves.
Additionally, Africa is the home of irrational decision making. So the notion of "silent majority" that will hand a mandate to a leader who represents a compromise and not an extreme one, will not happen now nor in the near future.
So although Abiy's narrative of New Ethiopia has been around for a year, it is clear to see that the country is moving towards another direction. So Guess who will win the elections?
Abiy's Ethiopia is Menelik Ethiopia, Mengistu Ethiopia, just in face book and Nobel package. Nothing rational about it.
Do you think its possible to tell a Somali in Ethiopia "forget your ID, be Ethiopian. Its going to be "Heaven" on earth and you will be equal citizen if youbecome little Amxara",,,,?
What Abiy is saying is that the Somali must have been st-pid to fight for 100 years and not see the "goodness" of one Ethiopia.
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In this age of unemployment, breakdown of tradition, culture and weakening of faith..You can organize demo even coup in any place in the world let alone poor Africa.
The difference is Djibouti has more staying power than others. If one can last a month, can outwait his opponents.
Ghelleh has outwaited and almost defeated even a Nobel awardee.
Outwaited and almost free of UAE assualt.
Outwaited and almost safe from Mercenaries like Eritrea.
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Why going in circles for a generation?
What are the possibilities?
1. If Somaliland agrees for restoring Somalia, the minimum will be federalism nothing less will do. Agreed?
2. If Puntland says "enough of this, let Somaliland vote and go if they vote to go" then that will be based on Italian and British and Menelik borders.
Either way the result will be the same for those inbetween Puntland and Somaliland.
As galbeedi said, those in between Kililka, Djibouti and Somaliland are generally resigned to their situation. They will only struggle to make the best of it in development or some gains.
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Saddam killed Iraq in going to war with Iran which was American British Israel interest and plan and wish.
He thought of empty grandiose things like Nuclear forgetting that Israel knew from the first time and let him spend billions and when close to commission one aircraft couple of bombs turned it to dust. How come the Iraqi do not accuse him of those failings?
Somalis at least in Kililka and most of north blame late president Barre for the 77/78 war the name, organization, conduct of the war. Instead of liberation war he turned it into invasion war. That was the fundamental mistake.
No point in blaming Americans or British and there will not be solution unless one finds fault with themselves.
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9 hours ago, galbeedi said:OO,
Your buddy Cabdi Illey actually transferred Cadytu and another villages dominated by Somalis to the Afar KIlil. THese were disputed area were the majority bis Somali. According to the census it should be under Somali Kilil. Ilry gave and gave many regions to Oromia and Afar.
Fat man Ghelle always shoots people. Let alone demonstrations, he can not even allow Somali websites to write something critical. Djibouti is cooking slowly. The internal tribes who agreed to loot the resources together will clash like criminals who would fight with the stolen goods.
You are mistaken on this one. The 3 villages were under what is now Afar during Derg or Haileslassie. Its the "expanshnist Somali" lol that increased the area. The Afar were actually most unhappy with Meles, but they couldn't reject since they were close to him and as long as its in Afar Kilil they have the land under Kilil. The Somali were actually happy since they got self administration in a land that could have been disputed and almost half of it they would have been found invaders.
But its nomad conflict nothing more. Ethiopian governments from Menelik to now always exploit it.
The highway is the main issue now more than the land water and grass issue.
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9 hours ago, galbeedi said:OO,
Cabdi Illey was the leader of the first coup to overthrow prime minister Abiy Ahmed. He was used by the TPLF to lead the exit and apply article 39.
Who knows , he could be a threat if he lives the jail. Ethiopia didn't charge him doesn't mean he didn't commit crimes against innocent Somalis.
Abiy doesn't care and also doesn't want to accuse someone and make an issue of something all those around him have done it a thousand fold.
They are accusing Illey of 57 people that died, churches that were burned..etc all false flag done by others. He was under protection from the military like house arrest at the time.
They will just keep him illegaly, maybe kill him or make him die, otherwise Cagjar would not stay in Kililka with Illey out even if Illey does nothing, Cagjar would not be able to function normally after all the lies he talking about Illey.
Please listen to this video how the Media can make a star from an obscure person in a week in America and how they can break and finish what was star a week before.
Its a speech by Vice President Agnew done in 70s and he was out of office short time after that by scandals, corruption..you name it.
Spiro Agnew: Media Monopoly and Beginning of Fake News - November 13, 1969
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galbeedi,
Thank you.
Now that TPLF has left everybody including Abiy guessing, the Hareri for which TPLF was blamed by everyone for making them Kilil of 20,000 are really in dire straights.
I "hate" thank less people. Not about TPLF, but about Jawar. If it wasn't for Jawar the angry Qero would have denied the Hareri drinking water and also place to dump the city garbage since everything comes from Oromia around them.
Now they have no option, but to clap for Abiy. So he is being real.
I know autonomy is not now a priority for Hareri, they just want to be safe alive and not killed by Amxara or Oromo both have more number than Hareri in Harar.
Jawar is fully supported by 3/4 oromo sides and significant even on the 4th one he can share with Abiy.
Tigray and Afar are out of this frakas. They do not want trouble with anyone, even though the Amxara talk about both in their borders and somebody is trying to light fire on Afar Somali border as well at this time.
Sidamas, Afar and even Tigray do not have problems with him either. They are long separated from the situation of last year. In politics is long time, alliances change.
What your Hareri friend missed is how Federalism is the no.1 issue for alliances now and Abiy keeps changing his focus between anti-Federalist Amxara and the rest.
What he stated about Islam and the factions/sects is also not correct.
Generally speaking Islam in Somali, Afar and Tigray is the same. Never influenced by newer or different sects. These three are also the oldest Islam in the horn of Africa if not even middle east. The rest of Ethiopia Muslims are converts between 500 to 100 years ago and some even last decades.
Different groups from Somalia tried in Kililka, but none was successful. Original and tarditional Islam the way it was received is the way it is in these places.
The Hareri are either divided or together but with different countries influence.
The Ahbash sect that is practiced in Lebanon, Syria and some in Jordan is actually started by a Xabeshi from Harer. Only the Oromo and others complained and demonstrated to shut down Axbash and the government TPLF said you are free, they are free, we are not going to ban one sect of Islam or Christian. Our job is for all of you to parctice freely your faith. The Hareri were split on this, but did not demand for Axbash to be shut down and expelled, because the government was TPLF. Except for Somali, Afar and Tigray everybody else wanted Axbash to be shut down and expelled.
Christians also have the same problem. There is maybe 15 million Pente (American religion) now in an Orthodox world. If one starts banning this or that group no end to it.
Your conclusion is correct. The Hareri have to stand with government who ever it is.
Unlike the Somali who can confront anyone and fight, Hareri have no chance.
In the 90s they should have asked the Somali and TPLF to make them a zone in Kililka which would have made Dirdahba case also easier. I guess they got greedy and forgot that the Somali or TPLF or both are not going to be always as powerful as they were then.
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On 10/27/2019 at 1:10 AM, maakhiri1 said:excellent move, but again “Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan. '
always and in every case.
The way things are moving in Ethiopia, Kililka is in very bad shape. Hopefully all the old parties can get together and at least save the auronomy they fought for so long. Its being eroded already.
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Abdi Illey was accused by Abiy and some Somalis on TV, Radio and Print media in Ethiopia on being separatist and then by Some Somalis so many crimes on face book, Ethiopian media...
6 months in prison neither federal, nor regional, not individual..no body brought a legal case against him.
Separatist cannot be an accusation in Ethiopia, its constitutional right. But even that was not brought since Abiy-Cagjar don't have any proof, except propaganda they created on face book and used it on TV and Radio which is illegal to do.
Now after all is said and done Abiy-Cagjar have come up with a case: The disturbance and false flag operation Abiy=Cagjar did while Illey was under protection with the military.
Abiy disallowed the lawyers that wanted to defend Illey, so now Illey has to defend himself.
He pleaded not guilty himself.
This is Africa and Nobel Peace price.
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14 minutes ago, galbeedi said:If they accept that the case will be over. Without private army and the security money that comes from outside powers , these guys will not exist in the first place.
I do not think Farmaajo has the courage or foresight to offer something like that to avoid conflict. Farmaajo is too dependent on Abiy and Farmaajo does not know what kind of chair Abiy is sitting on, more weaker than his.
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Is there a country that does not have demos, rebellions...these days.
The Afar Somali issue is being used by Abiy and Afwerki and of course maybe some Arab money.
The case was closed by Meles, Abdi Illey and Ali Sero.
A solution was that the Somali villages inside Afar kilil were recognized as special zone and self governing.
Ghelleh will sure find a solution if that is the case moving to Djibouti, but I don't think so.
We will see what comes from the conference of Kililka opposition that includes ONLF. As far as I can remember there was never a Somali organization that wanted or pushed for conflict with Afar. Was just daily conflicts of nomadic life.
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All human beings have the capacity to be animals and act like one very easily. Only a small step.
Abiy and his Amxara friends are so confused, they really do not know what to do.
Can you imagine a Somali after hundred years of fighting saying not only I will stay in Ethiopia, but I do not want autonomy, I want to be completely Ethiopian. That is what literally Cagjar is saying.
What Illey said was "We will be Ethiopians as long as our autonomy is respected and get our fair share in the federation"
Sidama in South Agew in North will be two issues that will bring the house down. Both have support of Oromo (non Abiy), Tigray and Afar and others as well.
The Agew are only increasing, since even those that were counted as Amhara are now claiming their own. Half of Amxara kilil is Agew. Half of the Agew are very close to Tigray including long long ago ancestry. The Tigray are Xabeshi a mix of Yemen and Agew.
As false regional enclaves created by Mengistu and Meles implode, Somali government must have a plan to avoid the looming civil wars.
in Politics
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galbeedi,
You are going against the times. Centralization is for now not in fashion.
UK will make region of North East (England) soon and make it equal to Wales. The Scottish of course are highest level of decentralization.
Spain, Canada, US, Belguim...Everybody is now hating central governments even the federal once.
Globalism is dead for now.
BTW some facts:
Mengistu hated regional autonomy. Mengistu wanted Somalia to be under Aidiid.
SNM or SSDF were created long before Meles started climbing ladder in TPLF rebels.
Federalism is actually glorified Nomad order. Go back in history and clans or sub-clans always had autonomy from Sultanates, Boqors...Nomad does not like to be told how to live from far away places.
Let alone Somaliland or Puntland even other regions will not give up self governing, even self bandit let alone government.