Old_Observer
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Posts posted by Old_Observer
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12 hours ago, Dahireeto said:Djibouti and Geelle are playing the long game to outlast the Arab fatties. That is the spirit.
Remember the SOL discussion last year? You were one of the few ones who had confidence in Ghelleh.
These face book people have no staying power, unless they succeed very fast before truth comes out.
It only took six months for Ethiopian businessmen to tell their government, they do not want to use, they cannot use Eritrea. Game over. Ghelleh won without throsing a single stone. With out posting single post in face book and without talking about globalism regionalism unity brotherhood....yada yada...
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12 hours ago, Dahireeto said:@Abtigiisis crying under his new Amhara chair. wayway!!!
I just watched an interview he did in Amxara and he is really scared and crying about the coming conference.
Most Somalis now have realized they can loose the autonomy that was achieved no matter how small.
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8 minutes ago, galbeedi said:The is some of the mistakes. Yet, if the Oromo do not confront Abiy now their revolution will be dead just like the Egypt where Sisi hijacked.They should think beyond Abiy and dismantle the old empire. It has to be a new Ethiopia and the only way is to slay the old one.
My friend, lets call a spade a spade.
Do you think Ethiopians were after Illey for all the "crimes" posted on face book? NO
They were after Illey, since regardless of his connections with TPLF, he worked really hard to maintain Somali in all fields from education to Radio to TV to security forces..etc.
How do I know?
Ethiopian government have not accused Illey of any crime against any Somali in Kililka.
They only brought two cases. Separation and the disturbance which they false flagged.
First victim was Kililka.
But I guess, some for clan, some for sub clan, some bought or decieved by Amxara in name of Oromo...Now as they say "the baby has been thrown with the b water"
Before you worry about the Oromo rescuing their revolution, the Somali need to rescue autonomy. Somali autonomy is more at risk than Oromo confused revolution.
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12 hours ago, Dahireeto said:He was humiliated in that interview. I agree that the interviewer would never ask these kinds of questions to MBS or the UEA despots.
He regrets of what Abiy has become, but cannot say anything as co-religionists of American Pente.
Amazing in a country of Islam and Orthodox both traditional and more than thousand years, now Ethiopia is full of Pente in both Oromo mostly and Amxara.
Only Somali, Afar and Tigray are the way they were thousand years ago. The nomad is hard nut to crack since Tigray also have some nomads east and west.
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5 hours ago, galbeedi said:Abiy implemented and changed the nationwide school system by forcing regions to start Anmaric language in grade one rather than the current system that allows children being taught with their native tongue until grade five and many more pro Amharic initiatives to resurrect the old order.
That is when you know the Oromo have been taken to the cleaners. Used as a horse and when not needed now they will be split.
Education was responsibility of Kilils until grade 12.
Abiy used one article that says by middle school the student should be able to work in his mother tongue and Amxaric.
The Oromo should have stood firm on federalism and the constitution that allows them Addis Ababa and also control of Education.
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Jawars reminder to the Oromo now comes home to roast.
1. Its very easy to start a revolution, the most difficult part is to build the new system to replace the old
2. We should not continue on momentum since on the move its easy to be hijacked.
It means he did not practice what he preached.
What broke the camels back is that Jawar proposed that the Oromo and Tigray get together just like the 90s even sending mediators. Tigray has completely cut off and doing normal development work in their kilil. Now the Afar are starting t do the same.
I hope Cagjar stops the face book none sense and get to work, building dams, digging wells, settling some nomads, there is just too many of them, build clinics, schools and very important keep the security forces, TV, Media.all Somali.
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Ethiopia does not have capable leaders, even those from behind Abiy are known cowards who run away to Europe and America when all others were fighting Mengistu.
I wish some of you understood Amxara language.
Here is Cagjar mentioning Abdi Illey 7 times in few questions less than 15 minute interview
Here is an Amxara closest person to Abiy mentioning TPLF the same dozen times in less than 15 minutes.
I have yet to hear Abtigis talking about roads, schools, clinics, airports, dams....always taking ageritu...the country ethiopia.
We now will see what the Oromo are capable of doing.
As the situation worsens Somali should get rid of this man and bring someone who knows about emergencies, order, health, food supplies...
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All those that were bragging in the Horn of Africa six months ago sitting on lap of America/UAE/Saudi/Egypt are now out of gas, confused, demoralized and ashamed.
I wish I was in the room when Abiy and Ghelleh meet next time. I can see Ghelleh saying very loudly "Welsome Welcome with a smile.
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8 hours ago, galbeedi said:Didn't they tell you that the camel symbol of that party was slayed and buried by Somalis after Iley went down . Besides, the current ruling SPDP was never a real party like the OPD, TPLF or others. They never had central committee, wise elders or respected members. Illey filled with whom he wishes and fired others like his private business
WSLF is the perfect fit for all concerned.
Always super optimist and most of the time counting his chickens before they are hatched.
SPDP is party in name, but united front in content. It was made by 4 parties and 2 activist organizations. ONLF was one foot in one foot out in SPDP. ONLF supported all work that was done for autonomy, development last 10 years.
I agree WSLF/P/Congress..would be best.
Inform your Amxara/Oromo friends this is again the 90s for Somali to figure out how to consolidate the achievements and build on them, not to destroy the autonomy.
I did not forget currently SPDP is dismantled and Abiy/Cagjar have nominal power, but still there are good people there from all regions of Kililka. The hope was that ONLF would join and take over most things instead of every time starting over.
This time as well Djibouti will have more influence on any Kililka organization, than Eritrea had with ONLF in last 10 years.
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67 Killed in Ethiopia Unrest, but Nobel-Winning Prime Minister Is Quiet
Saturday October 26, 2019
By Simon MarksPrime Minister Abiy Ahmed, this year’s winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, was in Russia when the protests broke out and has yet to publicly comment on the violence.
Supporters of the opposition leader Jawar Mohammed demonstrating on Thursday in Addis Ababa.Credit...Mulugeta Ayene/Associated PressADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Weeks after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is coming under harsh criticism over his silence in the face of protests this week that police said had resulted in the deaths of 67 people.
Mr. Abiy remained at a summit meeting of African leaders in the Black Sea resort town of Sochi, Russia when thousands of people took to the streets of the Ethiopian capital and several regional towns on Wednesday.
The protests were spurred by a prominent critic of the prime minister who had accused the police of plotting an attack on him. The critic, Jawar Mohammed, is the founder of an independent media network, and claimed that there was a plan to arrest or possibly kill him at his house in the capital, Addis Ababa.
The accusations stoked longstanding tensions in Ethiopia, the second-most populous nation in Africa, and drove hundreds of Mr. Jawar’s ethnic Oromo supporters to gather outside his home.
Thirteen of those who died in the protests were killed by security forces and the remainder died in sporadic fighting that broke out between rival groups, said Kefyalew Tefera, the regional police commissioner for the Oromia region. He said that another 213 were injured. He did not say what the root cause of that fighting was or what groups were involved.
By Thursday night, Commissioner Kefyalew said, calm had been restored to the country, with “no kind of protest or violent activities.” Officials also announced on Friday that they had deployed soldiers to seven regional towns, including six in the Oromia region, after violence broke out this week.
“This will bring about stability in the areas in cooperation with the regional security forces,” Maj. Gen. Mohammed Tesemma of the Ethiopian Army said at a news conference.
Since coming to power, Mr. Abiy has released tens of thousands of political prisoners and been credited with ending the decades-long conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, its isolated neighbor. The Nobel Committee that awarded Mr. Abiy the Peace Prize on Oct. 11 cited the accomplishments of his first 100 days, including lifting a state of emergency, granting amnesty to thousands of political prisoners, halting media censorship and legalizing outlawed opposition groups.
But during his time in office, domestic tensions have festered between ethnic groups that feel emboldened by a renewed sense of political freedom.
Mr. Abiy’s failure to return to Ethiopia when the protests broke out, or to say anything to try to calm the tensions, has disappointed some Ethiopians.
“The fact he was in Russia, doing nothing to take measures, that is raising some eyebrows,” said Zemelak Aytenew, an associate professor in government studies at Addis Ababa University. “He’s supposed to be a prime minister. In other countries when these crises happen people abandon their invitations and take charge of the situation.”
“Like many people I feel ashamed he has not done more than he did in terms of taking charge of the situation,” Mr. Zemelak said.
Mr. Jawar, the Ethiopian media owner and activist, has sometimes been an ally, and sometimes a rival of Mr. Abiy. Earlier this week, before the protests erupted, Prime Minister Abiy warned Parliament that unidentified media owners were fomenting ethnic unrest.
Analysts say that Mr. Jawar, who is 33 and has American citizenship, could mount a convincing campaign to succeed Mr. Abiy in next year’s general election. Mr. Jawar fueled the protests that helped bring Mr. Abiy to power in 2018, after Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn was ousted.
Mr. Jawar called for calm on Thursday, from his home, telling his supporters: “Open the blocked roads, clear the towns of barricades, treat those who have been injured during the protests and reconcile with those you have quarreled with.”
Mr. Abiy now finds himself in the tricky position of having to quiet Mr. Jawar’s supporters while living up to his new acclaim as a global peacemaker.
Mr. Jawar, who founded the independent Oromia Media Network, enjoys an extensive social media reach in Ethiopia — he has 1.75 million Facebook followers — giving him considerable ability to mobilize demonstrations, especially in the urban areas where he is popular with internet users.
“He does have the network to launch a party,” said Mr. Zemelak, of Addis Ababa University, though he said it was unclear how popular Mr. Jawar is in poorer and more rural areas of the country.
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The likes of Abiy and Cagjar are ones who are incapable of on the ground wotk yet good at face book. Jawar is good at face book and best on the ground.
Most of those around Abiy and Cagjar are failed people from past generation. Assassination is their most preferred tool.
Abiy was acting as if he has support of Oromo and now the emperor has no cloths. He is now starting to talk against Egypt to try and smoothen his relations with Tigray/Afar, but no body trusts him.
Cagjar is doing same with Somali, but the door is closing fast on him. He cannot use the great Somali nomad as a ladder to Addis Ababa. The jig is up. The conference will be his total exposure as a fraud.
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Another American Pente blaming others.
What is the point in now saying "everything Abiy did was either decided in my time or done in my time".
Abiy took credit for it. End of story.
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8 hours ago, Haatu said:This post reeks of dependency. Why should Somalis be reliant on the largess of others? Are they not capable of supporting themselves? Despite what many people, poor countries can easily escape the poverty trap as long as they pursue the right economic policies. But good luck finding those policies, the IMF, World Bank, WTO, developed countries on general and others are hell-bent on keeping poor countries poor. Ha-Joon Chang, a Cambridge economics professor calls them Bad Samaritans and Friedrich List, the father of developmental economics, describes their actions as 'kicking away the ladder' after they've climbed the tree.
And aid is a scam. It's a roundabout way for countries to subsidise their economies without breaking WTO rules.
What is wrong with you people? Qabkii iyo hankii sare aaway? For educated bright people, fikraddiina aad bay u hoosaysaa. Never let your poor sitaution to lead you to beg/be dependent on others. There is always a way out if you are mentally self-sufficient. Laakiin hadduu nin kale maskaxda kaa haasta, you will forever be dependent.
Its so nice to say what you said, but even yourself know that there is time and space for everything.
Its very rare countries are built on good wishes only.
If you cannot have your independence in economy, development, military, social..bases the next best thing is choose a better block to join.
The Turkish are doing it for themselves, but if what they want to do for themselves and what you want to do for yourself agrees and becomes the same, then what is your dependence?
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4 hours ago, Tillamook said:Finally my caanoboore-boore guzzling cousins are getting some sense.
Keep it simple:
The Western Somalia Liberation Front or The Western Somalia Liberation Party.
Every Somali especially Kililka agrees with you.
Except that ONLF was split from WSLF and anytime you have split there are grudges and misgivings. There are some personaities in ONLF who still hold grudges as to why WSLF was against late Barre.
Consider also other parties that played important role in Kililka, like SDL of the likes of Muhamed Dirir who solved/helped the crisis in Sudan.
I think reinvogarating SPDP maybe a better solution and some ONLF leaders may have to accept this, since they had already accepted during negotiations with Illey and Ethiopia, before Abiy and the Amxara/Oromo/Eritrea got into it.
Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland and others would also prefer the SPDP route. It is the only way to avoid having winers and losers among Somalis. This also avoids the Siad Barre WSLF conflict since WSLF was and still is supportive of the SPDP route.
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5 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:The suspects are:
Abiy
Abiy supporters Amxara/G7 who found it impossible to defeat him
Eritrea (He always said no comment openly in all his interviews)
Derg and EPRP who really hate him completely.
Jawar actually is more accepted in Somali, Hareri, Afar, Tigray, South, Benishangul...than Abiy, G7 and Amxara combined.
He might be an individual, but Ethiopia would fall apart if something happened to him, where as Abiy has lost that already.
The Nobel is just by 1. Campaign the Amxara did from the day his first sppech, 2. America, 3. UAE
Same like Obama awarded without achievement.
3 Million Ethiopians became IDP in his watch, but nobody spoke for them.
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6 hours ago, galbeedi said:I am the kind of a guy who have mostly high hopes about the future of Somalis. If neighbors and others could not destroy us when were refugees scattered around the globe , politically weak and fragmented, decimated by warlords, feeling destitute in refugee camps; now that the lion has risen from the wound , at least psychologically it will be difficult to turn the clock back and hold these semi clan conferences.
We have nothing to learn from the Kurds. Unlike them we already have internationally recognized Somali states. The missing states NFD and KIlil will be managed from Mogadishu sooner or later.
You are right that we the diaspora are a power to be reckoned with .We will shake world capitals with huge demonstrations and make African and Arab despots to be very careful of our affaires.
I like your self confidence and reliance. Without it nothing worthy can be achieved and if by any chance is achieved will be lost easily.
The Kurdish have never been united. They do not have recognized state, but have support from time to time equivalent to state. British empire, French empire, American empire/Israel, EU...have treated them from time to time like a state.
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5 hours ago, galbeedi said:These Arabs especially the Gulf and Egypt looks like nations without people with sentiments and reason. Here you have Turkey trying to keep the territorial integrity of an Arab country, Syria and settle the Arabs who are the original resident of the Furaat river area. Yet they were all condemning the Turkish move. Who are these people really?.
The time has come to get out of the useless Arab league. Eritrea joined first and then Asias said " the are useless" and got out quickly.
The Turks are builders and those who build life sustaining things are remembered by the people. The Syrian thing has bogged down their efforts to reach the world.
What I find disappointing is that Africans and Somalis in general have been jumping from one frying pan o another for no reason or rhyme.
Example some Somalis and the Amxara who had in their areas a lot of Turkish investments and plans and works, got shaken and jumped to the Arabs and America. The Sudanese on the other hand sent twice delegation to the Turkish to reassure them, whie UAE and Saudi were raining money on them to use the opportunity.
A lot of works in Somalia almost froze or some went backwards when the Turkish got busy at home.
We need to have some patience even in the face of financial or some temporary rewards from those fly by night operators and stick with some long term principles.
Because Tigray, Somali and Afar in Ethiopia prefer the Turkish, the Amxara and Abiy went the opposite.
The Turkish are perfect fit in:
Education
Technology/industry
Agriculture
Health
to the horn of Africa. Europeans are useless except to take raw material.
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The brave and patient Nomad against the coward, pompous, but rich money Arab.
I remember even in SOL when many were scared that UAE using Eritrea and Ethiopia and to some degree Somalia, will hang Ghelleh upside down.
Many of you got intimidated by money and face book.
It looked as the saying goes of David and Goliath.
The brave nomad knew the score. He showed his Nomad confidence and swager.
He refused his land to be used against Yemen. He refused to join Abiy even when Ghelleh knew all his friends Kililka, Afar and Tigray were in trouble with America and Arabs and he cannot help them.
Yet he never let Abiy Afwerki and Farmaajo see him sweat. Patience won the day. I knew if Ghelleh can withstand the asualt for a year all those who wish him ill will run out of gas.
Congratulation.
DP world should learn to civilize itself...Remember that empty pompous talk that Arabs civilized the African Nomad.
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Glad to see the Syria nightmare for Turkey is close to being finished, at least for some years.
Kurds will not re-start before another decade of soul searching.
Non Shiia Arabs would rather move to Europe, nothing worth fighting for them in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq....Its all hopeless.
Christians and others would prefer Turkish than their neighbor Arabs. After all they all lived there during the Ottoman empire reasonably OK.
Turkish are now moved into driver seat. Euro Asia is waiting for them and Horn of Africa is waiting for them. They want to teach a lesson to Arabs/Egypt, so hopefully Turkish will come running mode to Horn of Africa.
Sudan and Somalia were shaken, but haven't gone far from Turkish. Ethiopia is poor oversized and shakey not a big deal even if it goes far against Turkish. Will come back very fast.
Mugadishu get ready the Turkish are coming, but this time will focus geostrategically in Puntland.
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11 hours ago, Dhaqaale said:What do I think? Well all the data shows that by 2030 all Somalis will be living under foreign governments. N&N cannot save Somalia. Nor can Somaliland. Both will be removed. The natural resources of the Horn will go to European and American companies.
Somalis shortly will give up with each of the shenanigans, go to Garowe and say, OK show us how to do it, better yet do it. There will be tremendous pressure from Kililka, Djibouti and even the diaspora which is now more powerful than a clan.
SWS and Jubaland have no objection to Garowe. The Mudugs will come around since every step forward are going two steps back.
N&N is finished. Hopefully the end will be peaceful.
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11 hours ago, Dhaqaale said:What you fail to understand sir is this. Ethiopia has along history of state building. Ethiopia also has a lot of nationalist inside and outside the country. A communist named Mengistu disintegrated Somali society for the last 30 years with every little effort on his part. Somalis are not nationalist but are clannish, the whole world knows this. These are the facts.
The only syaye building that ever happened in Ethiopia (modern) was last 20-30 years. You cannot build a state solely by help from British, Italians and French. When their empires are gone you are left as play ground for the likes of Emirates.
Ghelleh has better state building skills than Ethiopia.
His focus is always the tribes and empires. Good balance. The French cannot attempt to use Afar to gain an advantage, Arabs cannot use Somalis as they do in Somalia to gain an advantage. That is a state which many accuse it as undemocratic lol but a state based on centuries old traditional system mixed with 21st century tricks.
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7 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:Che,
The name Haile Fida is a great name in Ethiopia. He was leader of a party that pushed the Derg to do land reform and when they split Mengistu killed Haile Fida. Intellectual, humanist and progressive.
Abiy is surrounded by people who use mainly assassinations both from Derg and an old party called EPRP.
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3 hours ago, Suldaanka said:The Amhara are masters of divide and rule. They have now succeeded in dividing the Muslim Oromo and Christian/Amhara Oromos.
The path to return to power for the Amhara is now wide open.
Not so fast my friend.
The Oromo are almost equally divided by faith:
Islam
Protestant
Orthodox
Traditional faith (pre-judaic)
Islam is divided between Brotherhood the likes of Jawar and Traditional Islam
Protestant are bitterly divided between Protestant German and Pentecostal American
Orthodox are divided between those who coperated with Menelik and those who tried resisting
Each one has an organization. Abiy had support with one wing of the Orthodox those who cooperated and were soldiers of Menelik and the American protestants. The Brotherhood tried to use him, but has been out witted.
Amxara are gone, its just the noise of final call to close curtain you are hearing.
If there is any group to come back will be 3 Oromo organizations, Somali other than Abtigis, Afar, Agew, South and big part of Tigray. Abiy supporters inside or outside are all anti federalism.
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I think this will be final lesson the Syrian Kurds are going through and will be lesson for all Kurds.
Unless the world falls into totall chaos, its impossible to gather all Kurds in one state or country of their own.
The Syrian Kurds attempted to copy Iraq Kurds for autonomy and if lucky for independence. They forgot there is a big difference.
Iraq Kurds are friends with Turkey. Iraq Kurds are different clans than the once in Turkey.
Iraq has 3 main groups that are big and many small once. Syria does not have big group, all are small.
Syrian Kurds made one cardinal mistake against Syria. Not only did they co-operated with America Israel, but totally went against Syria and committed a lot of crimes against Syria, believing that America and Israel will succeed in toppling Assad and end to Syria.
NFD equivalent to Iran Kurds
Kililka = Iraq Kurds
What do you think?
Prime minister Khayre proclaimed 275% in crease of the national budget in three years, also increased the salary of the soldiers.
in Politics
Posted
galbeedi,
Any Somali who want the Somali people to get through the turmoil in the world, and not fall down even further need to accept federalism and work with it.
It will also prevent outside interference. Example: recognize Madoobe but under these conditions:
1. Airlines can fly to Kismayu, but the customs/immigration at the airport and border check points to Kenya or Ethiopia will be all federal agencies.
2. Army, federal police will have branches/bases on lands that are federal and if not available leased.
The rest of arguments I see is waste of tme resources and if some big crisis happens in horn or world it means you already have burning fire with no capacity to put it out.