Old_Observer
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Posts posted by Old_Observer
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On 10/21/2019 at 8:59 AM, Duufaan said:In addition with huge increase of corruption and mismanagement as old man got injured late 80's. The US president Regan was responsible the fail of Siyad regime. After soviet union was done and UAE got a new leader, today leader. They decide Siyaad must go by stopping several million dollars, he was receiving from Arab countries. After the money stopped, they assigned Aided and other to enter Somalia from Ethiopia. The rebel fighting has nothing to do the clopse of regime, it was more about the geo-polital changes in the early ninths when Soviet clapsed
The relationships were as follows:
Arabs had nothing to do with Aidiid, he was brought in by Mengistu for Ethiopia to avoid northerners and to prevent the Ethiopian Rebels from their friends in Somalia like SSDF and WSLF.
Somaliland force was mainly supported by officers in the chain more than Mengistu. Mengistu and his close circle did not want any Northerner in Somalia or Ethiopia. They are very similar too, now one can see why Mengistu hated Northerners in Somalia as well.
The biggest traitor foreign country was Egypt for late Barre. They promised the sky including free soviet made weapons since they were changing to western weapons, doctors and any non-front line assistance. Once the war began they disappeared.
SNM to give credit where its due, never dealt with Ethiopia by throwing their fellow Somalis under the bus. They never tried to take advantage of the SSDF and Mengistu conflicts. They did not try to take advantage of the WSLF and Somalia conflicts and splits. They cannot be blamed of taking short cuts or short time advantage long term pain.
You can observe their behaviour later as well. EPRDF/Tigray was completely and close connection with SSDF. Somaliland has kept at all times with self respect and also respect for the Somali in general. Djibouti and Kililka know this.
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Xaaji,
You seem to have tendency of looking at the Amxara more than they even look at themselves.
Do you think the Amxara would have amounted to anything without:
100% accepting British, Italian and French demands and borders?
Agew and Oromo who both are now claiming their own against the Amxara
none
Could not do anything against Eritrea once Agew and some extent Oromo lost enthusiasm for keeping Eritrea by force. The Afar and Tigray of course did not have this enthusiasm from the days of colonialism.
Ethiopia has changed. The next Ethiopia can only be again different maybe fall apart or split like Sudan..but never the Ethiopia that Italy, British and French set up, determined its borders and supported it.
Couple of years Oromo language will be working language means bilingual. Addis Ababa will certainly become Oromo, the Agew are achieving victory as I write. You are missing these momentous issues that will change Ethiopia not towards Amxara, but far away from them.
Abtigis was friends with some opposition like G7 and he is stuck there. Or as it happens to some, he does not have that Nomad self confidence that says don't let them see you sweat. He has lost his Somali Nomad confidence, and has accepted either Oromo or Amxara as leaders. Even smaller Ethnics, even Ethnics that never lifted a gun against Ethiopia have better confidence than him.
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History is written by those who won, even if temporarily.
Here are facts, dry facts no emotions or analysis or excuses:
1. Every Somali was colonized
2. The only parts colonized by force are Kililka and Puntland and anyone closely associated with both.
3. Somaliland, Djibouti and NFD had what can be called choice of colonizer and also system of interaction between colonizer and colonized.
4. Puntland also achieved the same rules of interaction between colonizer and colonized, since the Italians were worried that the Kingdom can rise again and ally with British or French or the rising Turkish and of course with Kililka and wage war.
5. If the choice left was only to chose colonizers Somalis would have chose British, French in that order.
Just take Sudan (one of only two in Africa to have had resistance to British colonialism, just like Puntland to Italian, both lost) handling of problems a hundred times bigger than Somali problems, look at Kenya, Uganda...etc
Look at Somalia, Eritrea, Libya and Albania
Which one is better? Its not even close...governance, education, respect for the colonized even as lower class...etc -
11 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:Axmed guray or Ahmed gran as the amharas call him referred the somalis as Soomaals excluding him self from the Somali. The bulk of his army were mostly Somalilanders and he was born in zeila the first capital of walashma and the second capital of ifat. The mad mullah how ever is more controversial character he also a Muslim jihadi but he has killed more Somalis than he did against the Europeans. From 1899 up to 1904 he led some battles against the brits. But after the ilig treaty it was a pure a camel raiding gang. They were more like the modern Al shabaab.
I thought you knew something about Ethiopia.
If Tigray, Afar, Oromo, Sidama, Somali...don't even consider him as useful let alone a hero, how can you even say Ethiopians have one common hero.
There is no Xabeshi without the Tigre and Tigray since Xabeshi means mixed race. The rest is all partial like a clan or two from Afar, a clan or two from Saho and few clans from Agew that are deeply mixed with either the Tigre or Tigray or both.
There is actually no more as contraversial as Menelik in Ethiopia.
How could the Afar take him for a hero when he arrested their Sultan by arranging with Italy and France to attack the Sultan from 3 sides?
How can the Oromo take him for a hero when they have monument to remember the breasts he cut and the hands of men he cut?
How can the Somali take him for a hero?
How can the Sidama or Welayta take him for a hero?
I think Tigray and Afar actually are tolerant, unless you force them to sing Menelik's praises. They accept that he did everything for his tribe by accepting everything the Europeans asked. They both know it was the Europeans who won who planed and who executed their plan.
If you never had a controlling state and is developed enough to have schools to teach children a common hero or common history..you cannot have common hero.
The Amxara were so backward they were only capable to use guns Europeans gave them. They can't have schools to teach Ethiopians common culture or history. And now its impossible to have common history.
Anything the Tigray do not accept cannot be Xabeshi history. Other nationalities can tolerate the Tigray, but not Amxara fake history.
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I hope there are some adult Somalis left in the Kililka government. Ethiopia is just so shaky, someone need to be ready at least to keep order and safety in Kililka if something sudden happens.
Cagjar is totally out of this plan. His only work if he does is just to totally destroy anything Illey.
He keeps shouting on Ethiopian media 24/7 that Illey was separatist, as if that is a crime anywhere, even in Ethiopia. Its only a crime in the eyes of Amxara. Everybody else in Ethiopia says, so what, as long as he promotes what he wants peacefully and legally. Its his constitutional right to be separatist.
One of the people who made sure self determination was included in the constitution were Somalis.
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10 hours ago, galbeedi said:Che,
people in Jigjiga will tell you that the man stays indoors in his palace 24/7. He ventures for photo op once a month. He is more interested in Addis and the national issue than local issue. The Canfar issue is also related to Djibouti politics, yet Cagjar never met or addressed these with the Canfar leadership.
Somebody needs to tell/advice Cagjar that the Amxara will not respect him if he does not respect himself as Somali first. They are shouting his name, only because they are so desperate and no other Ethnic would lend his name to be used as their friend except Cagjar. So sad.
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2 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:LOL
I guess the sun is rising from the South/
Che,
Actually this could be very dangerous for unitaries and irridentists. It only takes one region to start saying "Let them have referendum" and then its domino effect.
Remember Ethiopia fought to keep Eritrea for 30 years and when the Tigray/Afar have said "We don't need this war, if they want to go let them vote and go". That was game changer and Eritrea was on its way. Some including Eritreans even say that the Tigray kicked us out, we could have had confederation.
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I am afraid this opportunity has been missed for Somalia in 2006.
Then it was a fashion for rich countries to completely or partialy write off debt for some future business prospect.
Not now. Everyone from America down is swiming in debt and even America is cutting all aid and gifts to everyone.
Don't throw good money after bad idea now for the likes of Farmaajo to make trips for debt relief.
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BTW
DNA will soon put to rest the tribal lineage claims. It would be very funny if the Imam is found to be half or full Xabeshi.
The Hareri have a lot of Xabeshi in them.
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We need to stop this unrealistic and never ending fights to find an over all hero for all. Since the Somali have never been under one state as far back as 1000 years to this date, and hero are made on an issue that affects most people in a state, its impossible to have common view on anyone except Poets, Religious leaders or intellectuals Ullema, etc.
Even in Ethiopia which at least nominally had a state, they do not have a common hero.
galbeedi,
My friend you are mistaken on one very fundamental issue about the war with Xabeshi. It was not a religious war. All the mini states of Hareri, Hausa, Zeylac and others had common peeve with the Xabeshi. Tax
The Turkish had battles in north Ethiopia through Eritrea and Sudan about a Gold mine. The Gold mine was owned by Turkish, but by permission concession to Xabeshi kings. Then the Xabeshi villages around under leadership of a Muslim Shiek (there is a village named after him), expelled the Turkish for mistreating workers and took over the mine. The Xabeshi king tried to take it, but was threatened. The Turkish tried 3 times and failed to take control of the mine and the area.
The Tigre and the Afar kings and Sultans refused to fight against their kins. So the Turkish found someone that can fight the Xabeshi and financed and armed them.
Still the Turkish did not control the mine and left the campaign and went home. As soon as the Turkish left the Xabeshi and Portuguese attacked and the campaign was defeated immediately.
All wars have something behind them.
BTW there is connection between Hareri and Xabeshi north (Tigray and Afar at least) The rest of Ethiopians and mainly Amxara accuse the Tigray/Afar for making Hareri a Kilil of about 20,000 while millions like Sidama..etc are only zones. The Hareri also were trying to use other alphabets to write their language, but then they chose to use Geez and they say its only alphabet that can be used to wrte the language and sounds fully.
Among the Somali fighters Ma-r-h were most violet and almost all church burnings and forced conversions were done by them. Others did not burn churches or convert by force. If you look at the map it will show you this fact.
It was not a religious war.
As for Ethnic identity and tribal leneage of the leaders, its all verbal or word of the mouth. The Arab writer wrote what the people around him told him, he has no way of investigating.
First casualty of war is truth.
The Afar, Argoba..were on both sides.
Adal (kingdoms/Sultanates) vs. Abyssinia (kingdoms) war would be fair name, otherwise the Portuguese and Turkish would have gained more than the locals.
Portueguese split with Xabeshi and the Portueguese were expelled since Xabeshi enemity to Catholics
Turkish and Ahmed Gurey split because the Turkish did not achieve their objective and Ahmed Gurey got entangled on Religious war that was not the obejective.
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5 hours ago, Dahireeto said:This Kamant (Agew) woman explains her people's struggle in Gondar against Amhara occuppiers. Minorities can rise up if they are abused.
Its amazing how stu-pid people can get. The Agew are only asking for auronomy and self governemnt in their area. The Amxara are saying NO you should be ruled by us and speak our language and become Amxara.
The Amxara are way behind. Let alone Ethiopia even one Ethnic Somalis want to govern themselves by region or province.
Catalan that financed the spanish empire wants out
Scotland that served and partly built the British empire wants out
Belgians want to separate the two halves
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Chile
Lebanon
Iraq
Ukraine
France
Spain
Hong Kong
3-4 countries in central America
And many more
It does not look good...
In some places its $100 a day to demonstrate or instigate riots and leave. -
A month is long time in Politics:
Six months ago the Amxara:
1. Were threatening war on Tigray and to take some districts from Tigray
2. Were fighting the Oromo in the north to get rid of the Oromo autonomous region in Amxara Kilil
3. Were killing Agews, which they still do, because they wanted their own zone and autonomy
4. Were calling for take over of Addis Ababa which is "their" city and expelling Oromo mayor and others
5. Were fighting among themselves who will rule Ethiopia after they succeed in removing Oromo Tigray..etc
Even Abtigis got so impressed by their empty talk he allied himself with them.
Now cannot govern themselves and are calling Federal Government to intervene.
That is why the saying "People who live in glass houses should not be first to throw stones"
https://borkena.com/2019/10/17/amhara-region-calls-for-federal-govt-intervention/ -
Abtigis never believed in Somali autonomy.
Any Somali that does not believe autonomy is the most fundamental structure and road to lead to independence or respectability in Ethiopia cannot have a working plan.
The only thing that unites all Kililka Somalis is total autonomy. Those for separation and independence see it as stepping stone and those who prefer to stay in Ethiopia see it as stepping stone for respectability and positions within Ethiopia.
He is very shaky on this, there fore no solid base and no solid following.
He relies for his survival in power on unitarists in Ethiopia. That for any Somali is not acceptable.
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On 10/16/2019 at 12:40 PM, Che -Guevara said:Balkanization is not a solution.
I watched this Jubaland fiasco. While people were consumed with Madoobe vs Farmaajo. I have not seen one person asking what have these men ever did for the average Somali, even for the average man or woman from their own clans?
What we need is accountability, good governance and genuine reconciliation instead recycling thieves and clapping for them mindlessly.
Madoobe secret to success is that he completely changed the direction of the argument.
No more people talking about warlords, Al-Shabab or anything.
Madoobe became a symbol of Federalists versus unitary statists. And so far he won hands down.
But when you see what is happening in Europe, spain, Ukraine, France, Britain....I am glad he won, since it avoids war and fighting. If Farmaajo had won, it sure was to start war in Jubaland, Kililka and few other places even the Mudugs.
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15 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:Sxb,
The British were a party to the events but they did not intervene, Italians accused them that they did. Ironically, the British and Somalis including SYL were on the same page on many things when it comes to the Italians, where they differed is on the issue of Independence. To gain Somali support, the British even teased Somalis with the idea of one Greater Somalia.
Che,
The British proposal was not a tease, it was real. They put a lot of effort to it. It makes sense Geopolitically, economically, militarily for both the British and the Somali (greater Somalia proponents).
Its just that there was too much mistrust and bad blood among Somalis and it failed.
The fact that both France and Ethiopia were totally aginst the plan should tell you something.
For the British would have been they maintain their influence using Somaliland and NFD from the two ends as spring board. They were closing the shop of colonies and opening door of influence and satellites.
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How come there is never talk about water between Somalia and Ethiopia, except when Abdi Illey was building micro dams for the nomads?
Somalia has leverage of ports and should use this to have better deal about water. It is too late when Ethiopia builds infrastructure to control the water.
In water politics there is something called "First use". That is why Turkey and Syria were in competition in building dams, versus Iraq who under Sadam was focused on dictatorship and oil. Now Iraq is in real trouble with water.
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Nile water has been offered by Egypt to Israel at almost every juncture whenever an Egyptian ruler is in trouble. Sissi is no exception. What is an exception is he is building it/or covering the building of it.
'If this water is going to the Sinai, then why have they not begun establishing water treatment plants?'
- Mohamed Ali
Egypt building secret tunnels to take water out of country, says Mohamed Ali
Why haven't treatment facilities been built for mysterious infrastructure under Suez Canal if water is intended for Egypt? asks whistleblower
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/egypt-building-secret-tunnels-take-water-out-egypt-says-mohamed-ali
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Gooni,
Life is making the best of what you have and keeping what is possible.
The O is not going to sacrifice what he can do in three countries, with the dream of having one Somali state.
Ethiopia will never do in Somalia what cannot be tolerated in Kililka. Abiy has apologized for the attempt and even gone as far as to say he did not order the failed intervention in Jubaland.
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18 hours ago, galbeedi said:Same thing couldn't get our daily dose of SOL. It has been tough two days.
Amhara leaders are exiled like Mengistu Haile Mariam or died in disgrace like King Selassie. Uhuru Kenyatta survived barely the Haig case against him, and Omar Bashir of Sudan is deposed after 30 years.
Oromo leaders are making history for themselves and the horn of Africa. Amhara and others should welcome this ,man of peace or else Oromo will nominate King Jawar Mohamed as his replacement. Beware of what you wish .
Jawar is not as bad as some Ethiopians make him out to be. He is vengeful, and so is Abiy. The difference is Jawar has natural base both Ethnic and also by religion and Abiy has no reliable base Ethic wise and his base by religion, though very strong and rich is not indigenous.
Both have Amxara mothers.
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Congradulations Abiy.
He has now accomplished the third thing he wanted and can move on to fourth.
He stated his mother had told him he will be 7th King of Ethiopia and he became one
Less than a month after his election a group of Ethiopians collected 12,000 signatures for him candidate for Nobel price go it.
His fourth one is get rid of federal system and lead a unitary state..we will see
Again congra.
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Hopefully the Turkish can wrap their operation in the shortest time possible. The groups of Syrians that are with them now don't have much in common with each other. That was problem in Afrin as well. Syrian groups who generally get support from Turkish, fighting each other.
The Kurdish will always be in the same situation with every empire or superpower. That is what the British and French empires did, and America cannot be any different.
How ignorant can some American and European get, trying to threaten sanctions on Turkish. Erdogan has seen how sanctions benefited Russia. It made it the no.1 food sufficient and wheat exporter.
Turkish have home based education, manufacturing research trade with Euroasia...Sanction may affect few months, but for people that are proud of their heritage no big deal.
I hope America do not give the Turkish F-35. That will make them produce their own with some input from Russia.
galbeedi,
Turkish have long history. Even in their lowest days, they were always significant. They have fought against and made friendships with every power in the world. British, French, American, Russian, Austro Hungarian...you name it.
They are now good friends with both Albanians and Serbs. Good friends with Persians. They both had turns colonizing each other.
The Turkish feet are well planted on the ground. The Pashmerga are allies of Turkish since they know if you cannot live with your neighbor, you cannot live with anyone.
Even the English and French fight all the time and sometimes become brothers.
You are bit unfair on Assad, but that is to be expected.
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8 hours ago, Suldaanka said:One can only be unfair when he/she has power that he/she owns and controls.
Abiy was busy with his Nobel Price and Farmaajo has no way implementing all those threats.
Now Farmaajo is done. The applause for Puntland tells more than just welcome for Dini. Its a message saying Jubaland will be Puntland 2.
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On 10/10/2019 at 5:21 AM, Dhaqaale said:This is the reason I believe Somalia will loose its sovereignty. Oil, gas, uranium, iron and cooper will go to Ethiopia when they annex Somali lands. Somalis have been blessed with natural resources, a homogeneous country and located on a premier trade route between east and west. But did they turn their country into Singapore? No. Somalis are a foolish people that will go extinct.
Unfortunately Uranium is the next oil. Mali is first victim of it.
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From US Archives - 'I will pray to Jesus..." Daaquudkii Mohamed Siyad Barre
in Politics
Posted
Z. Barre did not even tell WSLF when he signed with Kenya.
The question was, if we are fighting for all Somalis to be under the same tent, why are we fighting even a stronger state when you are signing part of us away to kenya for ever?
After a meeting in Djibouti he had agreed to sign the same with Ethiopia and delimit the border completely, but one Ethiopian official took that item out for next meeting so that not to humiliate the Somali.
There is nothing dictators would not do or say when in touble.
Mengistu also tried similar with his Rebels, except they were stronger then him