Old_Observer

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Posts posted by Old_Observer

  3. Posted

    Recent events that indicate where things are heading.

    1. Remember for 20 years Europeans prevented Turkish from joining, but Europeans gathered so many useless little countries. Those little countries now are all instruments of America and being used to weaken Europe. Turkish mean while are being courted by China, Iran, Russia and many more.

    So brilliantly the Turkish signed deal with Libya, cutting the little poodles of Egypt and Greece to size. The Turkish signed with the UN recognized group, not with any group.

    Now Turkish are threatening to go to Libya and support the UN recognized group. The west has become dear in headlights. Do not know what to do.

     

    2. Arabs were counting on the new regime in Sudan cutting ties to Turkish, Qatar..etc. Last week Qatari and Sudanese armies completed week long joint exercise in East Sudan near Afwerki fiefdom. Turkish plans for Suakin and port are reaffirmed by new Sudanese regime to continue. Sudan withdraws 10,000 soldiers from Yemen.

     

    3. Turkish conducted field test of the S400 and are saying performed beyond expectation. Means will not abandon it no matter what. Joint production may be next step.

    4. Sudan will be next chair of IGAD. Hopefully Farmaajo and Co. will see the window. Greatest problem for Sudan is getting out of the list of countries that sponsor terrorism. It affects investment, commerce..etc.

    5. GERD is again becoming hot issue. America is trying to protect its poodles of Sissi and Abiy. Both are in dilemma. Sissi can't allow it and Abiy can't abandon it. Sudan wants the dam completed, so it can use it for its irrigation and electricity.

     

     

     

     

  4. Posted

    Ask yourself the following questions:

    How come the conflicts being described as religious conflict are all in Amxara and Oromo areas only?

    What happened in Jigjiga was false flag made by Abiy/Cagjar and Co to fight Illey. Almost all Ethiopians accept this fact since the Somali has never done anything like this for centuries. Even few Christians in Somali areas were always allowed to build churches and never threatened or attacked.

    Religion wise Kililka, Afar and Tigray are the oldest. Yet, mosques were attacked in Gonder that is less than 600 years old. The only place in north Ethiopia, where this happened. Why not either Muslims or Christians are attacked in these three regions?

    Ethiopia will blow up unless the current rulers (least base) change their ways or are removed.

    Since when did the Amxara became advocates of Orthodox more than Tigray who are the origin and owners of anything significant of Orthodox? Since when did the Oromo became advocates the Muslim while those who have recieved the faith millenium ago are still alive and everywhere?

    Its all trying to get some brawny points from America and Europe as well as Afwerki, but the Amxara politicians are endangering "their" people and the country they brag about.

     

     

  5. Posted

     

    This is fund to make Africans stay at home and not come to Europe. The plan is:

    To support countries with industry to employe young people

    To fight the human traffickers

    To encourage with up to 50,000 Euro those who want to return, and Africans to accept and assist with land for farming, permits etc for those returning who want to trade, manufacture...etc

     

    Some countries are making a killing from this:

    Ethiopia and Ruanda are top beneficiaries so far, Countries like Sudan and Chad, Mauritania...etc are not far behind.

     

    Somalia, Kililka..etc need to work on this and get some Industrail Parks, financing the police and militia to fight traffickers..etc. Resettle Somalis that want to go back from Europe since the situation in Europe is only going to get worst.

     

    What do you think?

     

     

     

  6. Posted

    5 hours ago, Tallaabo said:

    Islam is abused by the tyrants, hypocrites, terrorists, and the infidels because of the vast man made literature called xadiis peddled as divine law. As long as the Muslims rely on these books for guidance instead of the holy Qur'an, there will be no end to the abuse, misery, and confusion. 

    It is not only in Islam. Read some of the Budhist, Jewish, Christian...interpretations of their books. Me thinks its human nature to go from one extreme to another and never stay in the center.

    Sudan is the only country that had Sheria, legal and official communist party, Christians who did not feel aginst Islam, but against too much fake Arabism.

     

    The extreme interpretations were the work of some regional authorities and also the first 10 years of Al Bashir where the competition was with more conservative groups.

     

    Religion regardless of how intense or loose, is a way of life and culture. If rulers cannot use it then they cannot rule.

     

     

     

  7. Posted


    What a humiliation.

    The main point of the interview is that:

    "Dr. Abiy and Co. send us an order to join. We never participated in the draft or document. What we complained in the past was that the Somali in the past was not participating in EPRDF the governing party policy making. This is the same, even worst. Worst because we can loose our autonomy and this will create more problems for us in Kililka.

    This man being interviewed is advisor of Cagyar. This man has only one objective in life. To curse and cuss Illey, make Amxara happy and get some psition in Ethiopia.

    This man and Cagyar have no interest what so ever to go to a village build a school clinic road or micro dam for nomads. That is too much work to spend time with nomads. Nomads that have no face book page.


    Ask some friends to interpret for you. Its so humiliating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvni769dnVA

    The Document for the unitary party has become a code that we cannot decode, for us. Part 1


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkxoRDARPkM

    Part 2: We never had any role in the establishment of the new unitary party


  8. Posted

    10 hours ago, galbeedi said:

    Dahireeto,

     

    Yet, the powers that be had decided to alleviate the junior TPLF spy , replace Lema and make Abiy Ahmed as the chairman of ODP and future prime minister. The Amhara made sure that Abiy to be victorious. The deputy prime minister Demeke Mekonnen was among the candidates to be premier, yet one hour before the vote he withdraw his candidacy and allowed Abiy to win.

     

    "Abiy and I were praying together for Ethiopia and when we finished our prayers, information came that they have chosen Abiy to be the leader."

    Senator Inhofe,

    Chairman of the Armed services/defense in the senate.

     

  9. Posted

    9 hours ago, galbeedi said:

    Breaking news:

    Asias Afework of Eritrea is visiting  Tigray region. 

    Is he sending a clear threat to Tigray or the strategy is changing?. With Tigray and Oromo against Abiy , all he got is Asias and Amhara.

    Ethiopia is getting interesting. 

    Waa lagu digtaa duul hadduu kuu darnan jiray, bal dayaay Axmaarkii.

    Afwerki is in the most trouble with Arabs, so is Sissi.

    Their two masters don't trust each other (Saudi and UAE). No money to throw like before. No need for their services in Yemen. Their value even to Arabs has gone down.

    UAE is putting Abiy ahead of Afwerki. But the Saudi are telling Afwerki to be only theirs.

    Ethiopian businesses do not want to use Eritrea. Still Tigray is big in business and now that they are almost completely out of Ethiopian politics, they are free to focus in business with out political buggage. The Oromo are still interested in having Nothern as ally and their choice of course is Tigray.

  10. Posted

    12 hours ago, Dahireeto said:

    Turkey is slowly using its soft diplomacy to stay under the radar and win the hearts of the people. 

     

    Next thing will be a hospital, next after that School maybe university, next after that fish processing next will be joint venture with China on one of the 4 ports.

    Turkish do not rush.

    If one is self confident like the Turkish, can out wait the Arabs even Americans that are in a rush.

    You can see the Ethiopian/Eritrean against Turkish has run out of steam in one year. Viva Ghelleh as well, he stood firm and sat out all the noise.

    Turkish are also remaking Nagash Mosque and preparing the whole area for faith tourism. They have schools and clinics both for people and veterinary in Afar.

    The Amxara were the only losers since they burned some business and the Turkish froze their development works in Amxara, but not in Afar and Tigray which is on going.

     

     

  11. Posted

    On 11/16/2019 at 10:16 PM, galbeedi said:

    Qatar probably might mend some fences with the Saudis like allowing overflights on SAudi air space and traveling to Hajj directly, but the gab with UAE is very huge.

    I think the sanctions made Qatar independent .It is the first time in Arab world where the righteous nations won the day.

    The Turkish are shaking Middle East, Europe and even America without spending too much. The one thing they have going for them is self respect, dignity and a belief in themselves and their history and faith.

    The Russians have the same. That is why even when they quarel they still respect each other.

    Even when the Turkish were in their worst days of defeat and dismantling of empire, they still fought and defeated British and French empires combined at Gallipoli.

    That is why it becomes so humiliating when you see Farmaajo acting like a beggar with Abiy. If Farmaajo does not stop what he is doing the Somali will be reduced to begging Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Arabs..even in sub clan conflicts. That is greatest downfall for the independent and confident nomad.

  12. Posted

    On 11/17/2019 at 2:17 AM, Suldaanka said:

    It looks like the road is clear for an Amhara return to power in 2020. 

    They have divided the Oromos, isolated the TPLF, and they have under lock the Southern Nations, and somewhat at least half of Somali vote.

     

    I am afraid you have been influenced by internet.

    On the ground Just ONLF is enough to put Amxara out to pasture. Ethiopia is now full of 30 year olds and younger who know nothing but their regional autonomy. If you think there is a force or method to put Ethiopia back to unitary system, you may have to struggle for next generation.

    Even Kililka that has now disorganized power can get together in a day if the autonomy is going to be eliminated.

    You have 3 of the 4 Oromo groups, Afar, Tigray, half of Amxaa, and 80% of south and the rest that would fight for autonomous regions.

     

  13. Posted

    On 11/16/2019 at 10:21 PM, galbeedi said:

    Cagjar would probably join the new EPRDF.

    The Oromo party will split probably in three. Somalis, Afar and Sidamo are for grabs.

    OO, what do you thing ?

    Your expected action of Cagjar was perfect.

    Most Oromos, Afar, most of Amxara Kililka (the ground is very different from the internet), Tigray, and the rest of Ethiopia are federalists.

    Those leaders who cannot rely or do not have reliable base are choosing unitary. Cagjar is one of them.

  14. Posted

    On 11/23/2019 at 6:07 PM, galbeedi said:

    Cagjar thinks we are all fools.. THere are zero Somalia in Gondar. 

     

    By the way, Jawar Mohamed was in Calgary this week . 600-700 Oromos from Calgary, EDmonton, Saskatchewan and Vancouver filled a big ballroom hotel and raised over $200,000 dollars. According to those who were present, there were also about 40 Amahara protesters were carrying the usual signs calling Jawar terrorist and other names.

     THey probably hate the two names he was carrying, Oromo and Mohamed. He said, the Amhara think Ethiopia means them. He insisted on having fair and free election and for the Oromo and other regions to elect their own regional government without interference from Oromo. 

     

    A conference is now necessary with representative/observers from all enclaves about Kililka.

    Autonomy is critical and is under concerted attack from Somalis who think only anti Illey and want to ride that horse to Ethiopia, Amxara that are always terrified of the nomad fighting character, Oromos that have never achieved what the Somali has always taken for granted, the capacity not to be ensalved.

    Everyone is afraid of self governing Somali, except Afar and Tigray who never minded an autonomous Somali.

    Even Jawar is terrified of self governing Somali since Oromia without clear connection to Djibouti or Berbera or others is pointless.

     

  15. Posted

    8 hours ago, galbeedi said:

    It is clear now, emperor Abiy has no clothes.

    No wonder Amhara are crying foul and calling Jawar Mohamed all these nasty names.They are trying hard to divide the Oromo on religious lines, but the Oromo won't follow the Amhara footsteps. 

    In the latest interview Jawar said that they either allow democracy and vote or we will separate.

    Somali state should be ready for anything. No more Addis appointed puppet.

    Unfortunately Kililka has never been this weak and disorganized even during the 2000s when ONLF restarted war.

    All Somalis from all enclaves need to remind Cagjar that he is throwing away 100 years of struggle. As soon as he weakens the Somali the Amxara will throw him away.

    Let alone for a society that big, even an individual is respected if he manages his house, his wife, kids and parents. Unless you show Amxara that ou can manage your own house, they wont respect you.

    Unless Ethiopians know that the Somali is capable of governing Kililka in autonomy and if opportunity comes as country, then there is no reason to be afraid of the Somali.

  16. Posted

    8 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

    The map is Amhara dream. 2020 will be an interesting year.

    Apparently VOA Amharic refused to air Lemma's interview. 

    The map is military command structure and territories. That is military map not political.

    If they want to adapt it to political map then TPLF will control the north since its mostly Afar, Agew, Tigray and Benishangul all even most leaders are ex-TPLF fighters.

     

    Lemma has big dilemma. Hopefully he did not cut his relations with Jawar in the past months.

  19. Posted

    WSLF was a brilliant plan that fell victim to late president Barre eagerness to claim solely the victory against Ethiopia. By the time the campaign failed it created a split in WSLF as it did in the republic. Failure is a blame game and WSLF was blamed, north south in the repubic eveyone even in Djibouti and Kenya was all trying to explain the catastrophe.

    Mengistu could not crush powder let alone something solid. BTW Mengistu is the most coward fascist and he proved it.

    WSLF is one of the most important organizations in bringing Federalism to Ethiopia.

  21. Posted

    19 hours ago, galbeedi said:

    Che,

    The same Mr. Mohamed Olad in interview said that" EPRDF waa Xisbi aanu bah wadaag nahay". Do not buy the delay. THey will come to Jigjiga hold a bogus shir and everyone will vote .

    Besides, since when the party membership ever voted for anyone? all decisions will be made in Addis by Shide and Cagjar.

    Very bad developments for both the Somali and Afar, but of course worst for Somali than any other peoples in Ethiopia. The whole year Abiy and his friends have been laser focused on Kililka.

    ONLF was the last organization negotiated with from Eritrea. That was made on purpose. And Abiy and Agjar succeeded. Weaker OLF was among the first and it took advantage of the wide open environment in Oromia. By the time ONLF came everything has been tightened, kililka administration has been turned upside down.

    Most Somalis were focused and misdirected to punishing Illey. So much so Agjar can jump all the way to Amxara, throw the "baby autonomy with the bath water" and nobody could mount any opposition without the label of separatist or Tigray stooge.

     

    No matter how corrupt or how bad the relation between Tigray and Somalis was, its based on one fundamental common interest. Autonomy and if wanted and time and space is conducive Independence.

     

    What Abiy/Agjar managed to do was convince Somalis actually buy and threaten Somalis into repeating the lie.

     

    galbeedi,

    I hope you are right and ONLF can revive and continue the 100 year war for self government against British, Italy, Menelik, French, Mengistu...by different groups personalities and different times.

    Self government with maximum autonomy is the basis of every society.

     

  22. Posted

    US Air Force chief 'hopeful' Gulf crisis will end, urges unity against Iran

    Washington sees political rift that Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and non-Gulf state Egypt have with Qatar as threat to efforts to contain Iran

    US Air Force chief Goldfein presses Gulf states to resolve differences, work together to defend against threat he says Iran poses to their security (AFP/file photo)

    By

    MEE and agencies

    Published date: 16 November 2019 20:30 UTC | Last update: 5 hours 29 min ago

    US Air Force Chief of Staff David Goldfein said on Saturday he was hopeful a dispute among Gulf Arab states may soon end and urged them to unify their military capabilities as tensions with Iran simmer.

    Washington sees a political rift that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and non-Gulf state Egypt have with Qatar as a threat to efforts to contain Iran and has pushed for a united front.

    "Certainly I am hopeful," Goldfein told Reuters in Dubai when asked if he thought the rift could soon be resolved. "It's certainly in our best interest to see if they can come to a political solution."

    In a sign the dispute may be easing, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have said they would participate in the 24th edition of the Arabian Gulf Cup, hosted by Qatar later this month, despite a boycott they have imposed on Doha.

     

    Gulf nations head to football tournament in Qatar, signalling possible thaw in regional dispute

    Read More »

    Washington has unsuccessfully tried to mediate the dispute, in which the four nations have severed political, trade and transport ties with Qatar since mid-2017 over accusations it supports terrorism, which Doha has repeatedly denied.

    Earlier this week, the Saudi-funded Elaph news website reported that the boycotting countries were taking steps towards “setting directions” for its media outlets to avoid commenting on Qatar in political and sports programmes.

    Other signs of a rapprochement included visits made to Oman by Abdullah Bishara, a former Kuwaiti secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and Prince Khalid bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's deputy defence minister. Both Oman and Kuwait have been mediating in the row that has fractured the six-member GCC.

    The United States is allied with all six Gulf Arab states. Qatar hosts Al-Udeid air base, the largest US military facility in the region, while Bahrain is home to the Navy's Fifth Fleet.

    Goldfein earlier pressed the Gulf states to resolve their differences and work together to defend against the threat he said Iran poses to their security.

    "When a missile or a UAV (drone) is en route from Iran that is not the time to reconcile past grievances. That time is now. Today," he said at an air chiefs conference

    The US blames Iran for a series of attacks in the Gulf over the summer, including a 14 September missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia that temporarily shut down half the kingdom's oil production. Tehran denies involvement.

    "No one country has everything it needs to defend itself, but together we have exactly what we need for collective defence," Goldfein said. "We have the power to begin this right now as we face a common adversary who seems committed to malign behaviour across the region."

    Gulf military chiefs last month called for unified efforts between their armed forces following the attack on Saudi Arabia.

    Emphasising the principle of collective security, Goldfein said the best chance to defend the UAE may be from Qatar or neighbouring Oman. "Neighbours to the right and to the left who by geometry alone have a better shot," he said.

  24. Posted

    11 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

    The man is showing Abiy has no base in Oromia. More importantly, he's pushing for Balkanization of Ethiopia. He worked hard to make sure the Sidama get their referendum which is on Wednesday.

    Our Cagjar is now in a pickle.

    galbeedi,

    Whish one do you suggest the Somali ally with? This is critical. Cagjar of course has no choice other than Abiy.

  25. Posted

    26 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

     

    They all have one thing in common. All three are least powerful parties in their regions. TPLF is actually the only one that has always worked and had dominance in its own region.

    SEPDM is finished with Sidama officially separating and others unofficially separate. Have never been able to fill a quarum for meeting since Abiy started interfering along with his Amxara friends.

    ODP is not that strong in Oromia and if Jawar joins another party ODP is dead.

    In Amhara the opposition Amxara party has more influence and both Amxara parties combined are not that strong. Too many problems in that region.