Old_Observer
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Posts posted by Old_Observer
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The DON has a plan.
The plan is to transform the Djibouti nomads to the 21st century with technology/Digitally assisted. The plan envisions that a child born in Djibouti today will be full participant of the world in his high school graduating days.
The Chinese seem to agree to the feasibility of the plan.
The DON's patience is paying off. America, France, UAE, Saudis are all busy for their dear life either at their home like France or everywhere like America.
Just like individuals countries also have resiliance, survival instinct and ability to take temporary pain.
Djibouti survived Mengistu Ethiopia and Barre Somalia. Djibouti Survived Abiy Ethiopia/Afwerki Eritrea and Farmaajo Somalia along with their master UAE.
Only One Million population and with dedicated support of China and best cohesion in horn of Africa (Somali and Afar), Development focused leader who believes economic connection can outlive friendships or quarells of leaders....Can be brought to the digital age. Nomad taking care of his Camels on 6G networked drones and robots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRaRen2I9SU
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UAE is one country where the saying:
People living in glass houses should not be first to throw stones
perfectly applies and they know it.
When the Houthi sent couple of drones to UAE just for demonstration, that did the job.
Being at the lap of Abiy and Afwerki yet wanting to confront UAE is pointless and nobody will buy that. Abiy/Afwerki are themselves at the lap of UAE/Saudi.
In this case Djibouti and North Somalis all parts have acted with self respect.
They never jumped and danced with UAE or against UAE with Qatar. Heck..they never even jumped with America or China.
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galbeedi,
Everyone knows whom they are serving.
You and I may not specifically know who they are serving, but we know they are serving somebody.
An answer to the age old question: Who benefits, will always unfailingly show you who is being served.
Example:
Federalism in Somalia was brought as the quickest way to restore the country, since at the time the civil war was still fresh and also so many warlords.
Federalism now is becoming the slowest way.
Who benefits?
People like Farmaajo who want to do their 4 years and leave. People who want to establish themselves outside of the country a business a family and transfer what they get from Somalia...etc
Many Somalis had high hopes for Somalia with ICU, yet it was known from day one it would be biggest disaster for Somalia. Believe it or not America preferred ICU after the failure with the Warlords group rather than TFG.
A lot of late Barre regime officers were killed, some of which was revenge killing. Don't forget what went on in 20 years of that regime and then the civil wars and then war lords. Warlords are notorious for killings in any country they don't negotiate talk or compromise.
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Is Faisal Egyptian or influenced schooled by Egyptians?
They are the once that spend their time and days weaving conspiracies where non exists.
Persians are always either a great country a great empire or something, but always great people.
Russian Empire, Ottoman Empire, British Empire and now American Empire are always either at peace at war or in transition with Iran.
Arabs are their own worst enemy. No need to make alliance just for them.
Hopefully the Turkish and Persians can find a way to tame and herd the Arabs into semblance of governance and development. Change Egypt first or Saudis.
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Farmaajo and company are so embarrassed of what they did/tried to do to Djibouti, will do anything to get on good side of the DON.
All they will get will be that deceptive smile, but shortly the bite will come.
Djibouti will never forget anyone that tried to kick it when everything looked bleak and Djibouti was under "attack" from US Congress to Abiy/Afwerki/Farmaajo to UAE and its African servants conference.
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How busy are the Turkish?
1. They commissioned a gas pipeline not only supply gas to Turkish, but most importantly the Turkish becomes masters of the energy supply to Europe, mainly Balkans, Greeks and Italy.
Erdogan was so focused on this the project was completed ahead of time. USA not happy, EU not happy.
2. Foreign minister is in Iraq and supports all foreign militaries to leave. Europeans and Iranians. Who will replace them. Simple Turkish. 20 billion annual trade will turn into 40 billion shortly.
3. Libya Erdogan must have arm twisted Putin for Putin to go against Greek, Egypt, Europeans.
Both leaders determined a cease fire first and negotiation in some country which Erdogan picked already.
4. Syria Erdogan is in a pickle between his generals, Gulf Arabs, NATO, Italy France Britain(Libya), EU about refugees, ...everybody Turkish will separate ISIS from the Syrian opposition and let Syria Russia take care of ISIS. Since Russia and Turkey announce a new cease fire in Idlib that seems to be the agreement.
5. The Nuclear power plants may come online for 100th anniversary of Turkish republic. Those nuclear plants are built by Russia/Turkish.
6. Trump called for NATO role in Iraq, which means in this case Turkish.
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Oodweyne,
Great to see you back in the SOL Republic. Hopefully in good health and happy.
Me thinks Galbeedi is conflicted. He missed the main thing in politics is not what your best wishes are, but what is possible to do/accomplish towards your best wishes. One week is fighting regions, another week Al Shabab, another week Ethiopia or Kenya then another week some region....
Example: There was a project that Farmaajo should have accomplished 6 months ago by the latest. Provide the Turkish with 20,000 for army training in Somalia and 2000 for training in both Turkey and Somalia for special operations or rapid deployable force. Except the first batch in both cases nothing was done. Do you know why? Abiy and Afwerki told Farmaajo that Turkish trained sodiers will not be loyal to him in his fight with regions or Mogadishu. So Abiy and Afwerki told him they will train for him with of course UAE (the boss for both of them). The project is now dead and Abiy is telling him to use Ethiopian forces which will be loyal(foreigners) and cheaper.
I am sure galbeedi agrees with the above, yet would not give up on Farmaajo and co.
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There is no Somali individual, group, party..anything capable of doing this or even bigger?
Even foreigners have to do it with Somalis anyway.
Blaming one time UAE, another time Qatar, another time Ethiopia, yet another time America....is wearing thin.
Is this to make Farmaajo look like a lion fighting against some big regional and global powers, everyone out to get Somalia and Farmaajo is the only one keeping it through diplomatic, military intelligence...etc super leadership.
Better people talk about the next election and this time the criterion should be someone who:
For good or bad accepts and swears to work with existing conditions federalism and not waste time
To work with the Turkish. to fully implement, what was planned (20,000 army soldiers trained in Somalia and 2000 special forces/rapid deployable to be trained in Turkey and Somalia). This should have been long time ago done.
Focus on food production to feed the people that are only doubling every some decade and also if successful feed the Arabs and guarantee they will always wish well for you and support you.
Forget oil or Uranuim for now. Its corrupt and dangerous business.
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Egypt was making money as middle man between Gulf and Haftar. That gravy is going to dry. Egypt knows how to make money out of misery of others; Palestinians, Yemenis, Libya, Sudanese..always no morals.
Libya is split almost same way as during colonialism's start in 19th century. All of them Italians, French and British with their Arab and African vassals and their masters America and Russia are all involved.
The Turkish are going to be very busy in 2020 as they were in 2019.
Iraq will also fall into Turkish helping hands. The Shia would prefer Turkish to avoid Iran Israel fight in their country. The Kurds and most Suni are trying to avoid Turkish and make America to stay. Syria and Iran would also not oppose Turkish entry to Iraq. Turkish are only one that can do something about Oil, Water, Food shortage and transport in Iraq.
What do SOLers think?
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The writer seems he never learned from history.
He still believes the propaganda fiction instead of the facts that anyone with sense of logic can understand and accept:
1. America did not prefer, want or like Abdulahi Yosuf. Not only because of their allies in Mugadishu, but they have enough from his telephone. Ethiopia and Yemen leaders were his trusted supporters.
2. Al Ithad, ICU and Shabab had a continued enmity with Kililka. It actually was not clan or sub clan conficts. The common personalities in Itihad/ICU/Shabab and common personalities in WSLF/SDL/SPDP were uncompromising and some had conflicts even from 77/78. Itihad had liquidation list of Kililka personalities.
3. Somalis and Xabeshi are not strangers to each other. Have interacted for 1000 years in good, bad and ugly ways. Ethiopia had relations with some warlords, but not Shabab or ICU per se. Ethiopia had connections with many parts of Somalia long before 2006. It was General Morgan who communicated the invitation to Ethiopia to come to stop the fighting around SWS and close by provinces.
4. I think its all African mentality to be suspicious and try to connect things that do not have any connection at all. By 2006 Ethiopia had a working relationship with north almost completely, Mid and Mogadishu with Warlords and also others of Gedi types. SWS almost completely. Kililka Jubaland connection has always Ethiopian dimension to it as well. Kenya was totally reliant on Ethiopia.
5. Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan and Yemen were on side of course TFG side.
The writer has never seen the cartoon about the lack of information the opposition had. Example:
Ethiopia was still Amxara for them. Tigray was uncknown for the Somalia opposition, yet Tigray almost always know more about Somalia than Amxara do. The opposition did not know Tigray are more powerful, totally dominating in Eritrea than they were in Ethiopia.
For how long do we have to read such fictions, that have been debunked by much of those involved and also by semi neutral Wikileaks?
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2 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:Amharas have been arming and training their forces. The only !diots left behind are us. Ethiopia will disintegrate, that much is certain.
The most disappointing part is that 2 years ago both the Amxara and Oromo were complaining that the Somli are armed and organized and can separate anytime.
Now all that "Iley must die" Somali has not achieved any single worthy thing for the people, but lost the little autonomy (the highest by then Ethiopia), the little trained and organized force...etc
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Che,
Its simple. UAE is in Somaliland. Anything goes. Plus there is a Somali in just about every activity these days and someone will feed Al Jeezira.
In Just one year we have seen maybe 100 headline news on Col..General...President Care. And so many others that come and go.
Any water well quarel now is a revolution. Very sad situation. -
Dahireeto,
Me thinks Abiy said NO.
Farmaajo cannot do anything on his own and probably Afwerki also said NO.
When it comes to Somali issues Ethiopia is glass house. 100 ONLF can scare the Abiy government.
In 30 years Ethiopia has not done anything with Somalis, without majority or significant part of Kililka agreeing or tolerating.
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Tallaabo,
Everyone in the world has migration issues, small or big.
The Oromo have given up on Djibouti and Kismayu and most likely Puntland would not be their choice, if they can avoid it.
The way to Kenya goes through Somalis and half Somalis who change alliances all the time.
Somaliland should treat them well and the road might get built. The road should be great benefit to Kililka as well.
Abiy is looking for something to bribe the Oromo. -
I am not only despising, which I always did, but hating Egyptian leaders of last 2000 years except Jamal Abdelnasir and Mursi.
People say that Mursi was going to fight against Ethiopia, but Mubarek/Sissi was scared of Meles. I prefer an Egyptians who loves his people and country and stands up for them. He will be reasonable. Cowards like Sissi or Mubarek are never reasonable. Look what they do with Gaza.
Sissi is beging world bank, EU, Trump to help with GERD, but Libya is emergency.
Erdogan has clear water from his country to Libya, He has unemployed Navy except around cypress and black sea monitoring.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201912271077873941-white-house-trump-egypts-sisi-in-phone-call-agree-to-take-urgent-steps-to-resolve-libya-conflict/
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4 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:How fiican, ID registrations should be another priority, to know who is who?
I was thinking of the face recognition Chinese style, but those who do wrong will mask themselves. They also already know all the tricks like Epstein where cameras did not work, guards monitoring were asleep..etc.
But is great. Job creation, technology transfer and even if it catches one.....many benefits.
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How low has Africa fallen. Every Farah is now setting up face book political party and lobbying some country. No body wants to work with people on the ground.
If one has a connected friend in UK, the whole foreign office will decide something.
Its happening in Ethiopia. Some groups that are not ready or know already they will not win much, asking America and EU to delay the election.
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On 12/16/2019 at 10:45 AM, Dhaqaale said:Articule from the African inteligence website.
The Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo is doing everything it takes to hold on to power. On 10 December, he invited his most loyal MPs to the Villa Somalia to elaborate with them a parliamentary delaying strategy to block the holding of a general election in 2020. As James Swan, the UN representative in Somalia, pointed out on 21 November during a briefing to the Security Council, parliament needs to pass the electoral code and adopt amendments to the political parties' law before the end of this year. ‘Any delay in this timeline puts the 2020 electoral calendar at risk', he stated. Farmajo is also trying to further undermine the federal states, with which Mogadishu has a fraught relationship. To this end, he asked Somalia's ambassador to Ethiopia Adihakim Abdullahi Amey who is from the Sool region and previously served as vice president of Puntland, to meet Turkey's special envoy responsible for mediation between Somalia and Somaliland, Olgar Bekar, on 6 December in Addis Ababa. Under discussion is the creation of a new federal state called Northeast (to the west of Puntland), which would encroach upon Somaliland soil according to a map which the Indian Ocean Newsletter has procured
Too much copying from Ethiopia.
Turkish will say no if they know its going to be against Puntland.
Farmaajo is trying to provoke new conflict to avoid election and freely interfere in regions under state of emergency, which Abiy has found impossible to declare.
Why not accept what was agreed in Djibouti and affirmed in Kenya and build on it?
The Turkish are most unhappy with Farmaajo, vey unlikely to help him negotiate with Somaliland.
All indications is this machination will die in face book.
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Hassan Daahir Aweys is most disliked in Kililka. He cannot argue any case and convince people. He makes list of persons to be assassinated first and foremost, before even starting to make a statement.
He had on his list in the 90-92s about 7 persons from Kililka. Started with Dr. Abdulmajid and that started the fight which was end of chapter very quickly. First time Meles sent special forces into Somalia from guerrila fighters of TPLF, WSLF..etc.
Muhamed Dirir the one who helped the Sudanese in their recent revolution and setting up of government, was no. 2 or 3 on Aweys list to be assassinated..
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Islam is just too big to be used to identify differences. From Asia, to Africa, South America and Europe, Islam covers populations that are as diverse as the planets. Every corner has different culture, language, tradition...etc.
Every faith went through this experience. Caholics and potestants fought everywhere to claim who is most Christian. Orthodox and Catholics are still fighting 2000 years and still not over. But now the world identifies who is which.
Soon people will say the Shiia, Wahabi, Axbash (which was the reason some Oromo Muslms and Meles got into conflict. Its a sect which is growing in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and of course in Northern and Eastern Ethiopia), etc...That way both credit and blame can be assigned to the correct part and not the whole world.
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On 11/16/2019 at 10:12 PM, galbeedi said:OO,
I think you are also won on this issue.
You were one of the few people who insisted supporting Turkey and Qatar. You were the anti imperial camp on this issue. Your stood on the side of group that seemed weak in the eyes of America and that was honorable.
You always stick with Djibouti, Sudan, Turkey and Qatar. You know what , despite our differences , I put you on the side of the anti colonial camp.
Thank you for generous comment.
For me the most fundamental issue is having self respect. You can be friends, but not servant and lord relation. The Turkish even in their worst time in 1914-20s when Russian, British, French Empires wanted them dead, never gave up like other weak societies. They recovered at least the mother country and now they are one of the most powerful countries in the world.
Friends with America against USSR, but never servants. EU tried to humiliate them, but look what happened. EU is now begging them not to leave NATO.
BTW they have their own latest generation fighter jet. That is why they want joint production only not just buying from America or Russia like other countries do.
Of course they look after their benefits, but they also have principles. Principles they follow even when sometimes hurts them economically.
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22 hours ago, Suldaanka said:Yamamoto is kicking himself for this apparent administrative mistake.
Or he/friends missed out on a Biden size cut/commission.
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18 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:Ethiopia can only be ruled by a guy like abiye who tries to build bridges between amhara and oromo. Jawar is to extreme ethno nationalist. As for olf it only exist in name and party. The Muslim Christian divide is very dangerous in Ethiopia. And it should be stopped.
Xaaji,
You are mistaken of Jawar. I did not like Jawar at one point. He used the Somali-Oromo conflict to advance his Qeero and went to far using even fake pictures. He also was instrumental for Abiy and Amxara to weaken the Somali in Dirdhaba and even Hareri.
Other than that Jawar can create alliances in heart beat, which Abiy cannot do in ages.
You are missing the main charcteristic of Amxara. Either they lead or you are enemy.
If you do not have a base you are weak in politics. Abiy does not have one. He does not have an Oromo base. That is why he is trying the Somali option, but even then Cagjar and the likes are not solid among Somali themselves.
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22 hours ago, galbeedi said:Folks, we are a unique raise called Somali
OO, have you read our poems?
Socdaalkaygu waa meel
Sahaydaydu waa dacar
soohdintaydu waa caan
Seeftaydu waa cudur
Thanks.
That is why the Nomad knows how to deal with victories and failures or defeats. Some societies get defeated and loose their language, culture, faith..easily. The nomad culture can survive and recover even after century of colonialism.
BTW the second line is used as a wisdom expression, which means I can live anywhere, fight anywhere, survive anywhere. Of course, except some deserts where it gets covered with fresh sand dunes all the time.
Donald Trump "I saved a country (read Ethiopia) from civilwar"
in Politics
Posted
Actually its too much listening that is the problem. And most importantly listening to the wrong people like Yamamoto, ay the wrong time.
If Clinton had won Yamamoto would have been undersecretary for Africa. And good.
Yamamoto has one mission in horn of Africa. Anti Chinese that is all. Overthrowing Ghelleh was a big assignment to Abiy and failed flat. They tried second hand color revolution failed. They tried some tribal chiefs failed. They tried Eritrea and some Afar from there Failed. They tried war (Somali Afar villages) on the road and rail ways Failed. They tried removing all Tigray commanders from Eastern Command and put Amxara Failed.
Farmaajo failed because he did not follow the first principle of the Nomad. No one will command a Nomad against his family, Camels, water well and greenery and faith.