Talaabo, What is stopping the Reer Woqoyi or the D....r group for being effective and seek the highest office in Somalia?. Every group has 61 votes. At least the South West community is well grounded by flowing a logic. They don't gamble like most Somalis and are waiting to take their real power when one man one vote is implemented. They already hold the parliament speaker position without contest and soon they will be moving to the other places. Yet, there are couple of major political, economic and cultural factor that might impede their ascension to the highest office or to run for president. First the cultural aspect: They are not greedy or pretenders like most people who who throws themselves to the arena if they are not sure of winning. Look at the 15 member HAG pretenders who are all running for president. Half of them might not even get 5 votes, yet they are polluting the airwaves. Why waste your resources if your chances are law. Second, to run for president in Somalia, you must have foreign backed money or reasonably working regional administration like Puntland. Late President C/laahi Yusuf used Puntland resources to seek the top job. The South West region is still a new born. Probably the late Shaati Gaduud who was different than the current crop could have done it. Also, as decent Somalis, they didn't master the idea of allying themselves with the colonial powers. A friend of mine from Burco once told me, " waar qolyihiinan reer Galbeedka iyo HAG ta lafteedu ma geli karaan hawlaha anaga iyo D block and ku dhaqaaqno, haday dantu kalifto Axmaar baad sheegaysaaye cid kast ayaanu keeni" HAG waa reera fawdo,laakiin D block iyo Habrahu waa khatar joogta ah, wax walba ka filo. Furthermore, the Mogadishu factor has to be eliminated for the future elections and plain field Somali leadership. Look at the UNaka boys, in 2012 four out the top six were from them. How could you campaign while fearing from the local bombers, both Alshabaab and the freelance criminals? I am waiting the day real democracy is implemented in Somalia. Those who fear the real Somali vote is those who are pretending to be big tribes. One man one vote will be a new down in Somalia. Even in Somaliland ballot stuffing and fraud mostly happens in Burco and Hargeisa. Why? because of fear of losing. If voting takes place in Puntland today ,20% of the elected members could be from those who hail from South West and other places .Not one single mayor was elected directly in Somalia so far including Puntland and Somaliland who are peaceful. Xaaji ,I am telling you, be very afraid of democracy.

Also, do not discount that some of them might have deserted and left with other Eritrean youth who cross the high seas to reach Europe. Those who are still in training contact their families. It is probably those who left the camps and those who died. . As you could see those who are protesting are iabout a dozen people. The military must give these mothers real answers even if it is hard to swallow about the death of beloved sun.

Xaaji, One man one vote has taken place in war torn countries. where insurgents even control a large swat of land. Afghanistan, Central Africa, Columbia and others held elections. Puntlnand is safe, Galmudug is relatively safe. 80% Hir-shabbele, 80% of South west and 50% Jubbaland. Banaadir is save to hold elections. The remaining unsafe places could be selected through elder caucuses.

Guys, this issue of the youth does exist ,but it has been exaggerated . Of course the mothers deserve answers. The Mute man in Villa Somalia who doesn't talk even if his life depends on, could easily clarify. few weeks a ago I did talk to a guy whose younger brother was among those trained in Eritrea. He said they will be coming back home soon. He also said there were some young soldiers who died during training. He said the training wasn't only tough ,but the landscape was tough mountain train where some young men had fallen and suffered injuries. He said less than a dozen also died during the training. Soldiers dying during training is a natural thing. Waxa uu yidhi ilaa shan ama ix ayaa dhimatay, tobaneeyona way dhaawacmeen. That is why the 100,00 invading Ethiopian forces in 1998 could not defeat the Eritrean mountaineers who are tough to fight in these mountains. It could be the same reason the TPLF might keep fighting against Abiy for many years to come. Unlike Turkey who feeds and builds the Somali kids in Mogadishu , malnourished youth has snuffed in Eritrea. My friend even said some have died with heat exhaustion.

If the so called opposition doesn't change the narrative and move forward to create an atmosphere of peace and order, the election squabble will drag on for a long time. At this stage, what they need to do is cooperate with the prime minister and create a credible election road map and schedule. But, if they kept talking about reorganizing the government or the security chiefs, that will create a new set back. They must understand that while Rooble is mandated constitutionally to lead the country to election, he himself is a care taker premier whose mandate has ended. He can't shuffle the cabinet or form a new cabinet. When an election date is announced, the current regime will manage the nation until an elected president and premier take over. To force him to create a new government will delay the election work and consume his limited time. To demand the firing of the police and security command for tribal reasons is futile for future government. The army and the police didn't fire or shoot any unarmed civilians in this squabble. For example if the parliament want to convene and pass a motion, it is not the role of the police to stop them from their meeting. The opposition has a right to reject the motion and the extension. Now, do you want the police chief to be fired by allowing the parliament to convene or keep the peace? The next elected government will have the mandate to appoint their security chiefs, until then it is logical to keep the status quo. If they trust the premier, then let him command the security and give him the benefit of the doubt. Anything beyond that encouraging anarchy'.

That is an issue. We have 30 years old generals which is impossible in the real world. Certain ranks should come with age and experience. It is real disgrace to see these 28 and 30 years boys with no advanced knowledge and experience called general Saadiq John, or Qoryalle or what even the hell their name is.

The Arabs are nothing but trouble, especially the gulf tribes with petrol-dollar who have zero civilization to offer. Even in the seventies and eighties, countries like Iraq built the Somali oil refinery and other agricultural programs. The gulf boys gave us bags of cash that only corrupted the system. We like to criticize the west because we expect them to do better. They have welcomed tens of thousands of our people and we have a deep connection with them. The problem is their model is old and outdated. Furthermore, you can't develop your nations if others are deciding what is best for your progress. I do not have time to debate gender issue and other pet projects of the west. I need electric grids, roads and ports and I will seek where ever I could find that help. In terms of Turkey , they never interfered with the internal issues of the country. They have even transferred the base last year to avoid any conflict of interest. Even the American ambassador and other western analysts have said the Turkey contribution is not connected any political group or leader. It is a national project to lift Somalia. The western ambassadors are living at the airport built by Turkey and the only revenue the government getting at the moment is are coming from the ports and airports both built and renovated by Turkey. The Marshal plan provided by American to western Europe after the second world war had lifted those nations from the devastation and poverty. The Americans helped them build water plants, electric grids, roads, bridges, ports, airports and local industries. Within a decade these nations have recovered. Americans do not build things anymore. Other than the war and weapons industry , they do not offer Africa much. We expect Turkey to help us in modern agriculture and infrastructure. For us they the Americans of the fifties and sixties. We Somalis are segregated in our own regions and towns because of zero access to travel and intermingle. A great transportation access would make the country much smaller and facilitate interactions which might reduce the tribal attitude ingrained among us. In terms of Somali military training, our indigenous system has collapsed long ago. The Russian trained officers had retired and the American tradition of professional army can not be implemented. When I went to Halane in the eighties for the three months training, we could not even find a pant or shirt that could fit us. We just went inside a warehouse and find a pair that might fit you, and the training was nothing but marching and sitting in congregation. The Turkish military culture has a great tradition. They have a history of being tough and patriotic. Furthermore, as a Muslim nation we want to install our soldiers for not only serving to protect the country , but also for our faith and freedom. Here in north America, especially, the USA, soldiers fight for God and country. Just like the Turks, those who die to defend the nations will be martyrs (Shuhada u dhimatay dalka iyo diinta).

By starting his journey from Hargeisa, the Qatari envoy probably want to play a larger role than just picking up a winner in the election. It is a fact most of the destructive Wahabi religious movements are financed by the gulf. Many of the original leaders of the Somali movements were bankrolled by the Saudis and others. These wild dogs mixed with foreign intelligence and you would have a deadly combination. Qatar probably controlled certain segments of Al-shabaab in north east Somalia while the UAE uses foreign contractors to procure bombs and use local Al-shabaab cells in Mogadishu to blow up their opponents including the Turks who are building roads. By looking the coverage of Al-jazeera in the current Somali election crisis, it seems there might be shift. Furthermore, while the gulf nations are punching above their weight in the world stage , there are still certain things they can not interfere without the permission of world powers. The Taliban negotiations sponsored by Qatar was indirectly coordinated with America. Who knows major powers might have ordered the gulf boys to call back their wild dogs (Al-shbaab, Al Ithihaad and others).

For many of us who supported the Farmaajo agenda we thought Ahmed Madoobe was venerable from within the JUbbaland opposition. Looking back Farmaajo had rejected the election of Madoobe first and then revered that decisions without reaching a settlement. And looking the hostile envirmental in Kenya, the Gedo and Kenya file was a failure. If Farmaajo played well ,Jubbaland with gedo led by Ahmed Madoobe could have been his base. Farmaajo aligned all his political and futures hopes on the HAG community basket, and time will tell if that move was worth the effort. Both the HG and Dayniile community rewarded with premier shop were the first to unleash the militia.

We all wanted Farmaajo to succeed for the national interest. Also, supporting farmaajo was not only natural, it was an easy choice. His administration was doing reasonable job especially for the last years in terms of the functioning of government bureaucracy, security, financial management and some success in foreign policy , except the Kenyan dispute which created some problems for Somalia. In fact, if the race for president remains a contest between the current crop and Farmaajo it will be easy again to support him for the high office. Both Khayre and Hassan Sheikh are damaged goods. Shariif Ahmed still has some credibility. Hassan Sheikh could have appealed for army to stay out of politics without calling his clans men to abandon the force. He openly called only the HAG members to refuse command. Odowa Igaarkeygiiyow ninka la shir yimid yaa dooranaya. A former president appealing to his clan has lost legitimacy. Bahasha waxoogaa waa loo cimaamada. Farmaajo is responsible for allowing things to reach at this level. His biggest mistake was trying to remake the regional leaders in his own image. You don't need to select or waste resources to help the election of some regional leader for your future plans. Just find common ground and work the whom ever people elect in their regions. Anyway, It has been 8 months of useless debate. We are ready for elections.

I think that is probably the main issue here. When I debate the most sensible members of the opposition, they kept telling me that " Somalia is a project that is been reconstructed slowly but surely, and doesn't need a big shift to one direction". Yet, Some us have been watching this reconstruction for 20 years since Cart, Djibouti, and we are becoming impatient.. I am not demonizing the opposition who should use every available schemes to oust him, but the IC community who has extensive experience, power and political will has allowed these small issues to foster. In day one, they would have put these guys some pressure and single out the spoilers. I am afraid as ambassador Tarzan said, if we done move quickly to election things might get out of hand.

These are the only to options left for Farmaajo. He should give government operations to Rooble and prepare for the elections. Otherwise the Somali train will be left to the mercy of certain members of the IC who seem to be suicidal. I have never seen in my life a small pity disagreements transformed to an almost full blown civil war. The devil works in mysterious ways. These [people have mastered how to create chaos. Too bad Farmaajo had given them the chance to meddle.

That is the most important task of all. Why they keep avoiding. It is possible. Since the main candidates look like a damaged good among the eyes of the public. THere is also undercurrent agreement among non HAG members of the parliament to object an Unaka president. In 2106, it was anybody but Unaka. People were tried about these guys occupying the two top jobs. If Rooble want to be a serious candidate he needs time (minimum six months) and resources. HG could smell power through this calm and soft speaking guy and might even raise money from the Mogadishu business community. Yet, everyone I talked to says, local Somali money couldn't compete with the unlimited bags of money coming from the gulf. Furthermore, the gulf boys sometimes might ride two different horses to the finish line or they could even change horses in the middle of the race. The same Qataris who brought Hassan Sheikh in 2012 , paid for Farmaajo four years later. Who knows? these gulf boys could be serving higher powers above their paygrade and every four years we get a new man ridding a white horse. Besides, Somalis like new things, and Rooble could be an alternative to both Farmaajo and Hassan Sheikh. One more point. C/laahi Dani has a direct like to the UAE and he might even declare his intensions.

Illegal militia threatening war was the worst part of saga that started when Farmaajo failed to hold elections. His popularity was high, he was paying the salary on time, and the security situation was improving yet, he decided to debate with C/rahman C/shakuur and C/laahi Dani for what? For small pity issues like election commission , Gedo and so forth. Despite all this , I would like to give credit to the opposition guys who set a new precedent on future Somali elections. After this rejection of the extension, no one in Somalia would even think about extending their terms. Yesterday I heard the Waddani Party in Somaliland warning Muuse Biixi not to think to extend his term even a day. Somaliland is notorious for illegal extension. Rayaale served 8 years instead of five and Ahmed Siilaanyo served more than seven years than the five year term. So ,, I must give where credit is due. Apophis and company might have scored something good for the future.

Farmaajo ha loogu dhaarto in wax awood ah oo u hadhay in aysan jirin. He should speak one more time and tell everyone that all government and constitutional authority has ben transferred to the prime minister. If there is anyone who should call any meeting it is Rooble. The opposition and Rooble must agree on election schedule. Farmaajo shouldn't be sitting across any opposition . He should prepare himself for the election and take his chances. They signed the Sep 17 agreement and they came back after two months and rejected everything. He should have sensed their plot and get along with them. Mucaarad aan shaqo kale lahayn oo raba in ay kula murmaan maxaad wqati u siin. Doorasho haddii la aado muxuu Ina C/shakuur heli? Zero. Laakiin haddii la yidhaahdo Farmaajo la rifayaaye suuqa kaalay waa intuu rabay.

He should not even think about it. He better not complicate things and create more constitutional headache. The parliament must be dissolved once the election schedule is agreed upon.

Both Borama and Garoowe are close to the border with Ethiopia. Since the capital became a hostage the parliament mps must have courage in debate openly. This is a must. Here are the cities that could became the next capital" Baraawe, Ceerigaabo Baidgabo. I thin Baraawe is the ideal capital.

It is time to move on. Apophis dagaalku waa dhamaade fadhiiso. Let the chip where they may and hold the elections.

Even " Barakacayaasha" in the media are paid. I have never seen a well calculated and open sabotage of a government by foreign forces. Some even released statements just minutes after the reporting of the first bullet. This is probably the new game stopping China for coming in the Red Sea region.

He saved the city from Indhacade and company. I heard that there was some causality among the opposition including Indhacade and Mahad Salaads. Some opposition guys are hiding their damage to conceal their involvement. Che, The election always exposes everything behind the curtain. That is why we were saying hold the election and compete. Farmaajo has given a 15 member opposition to create chaos in his watch while calling the election would have pitted them against each other. Waar ninkan yaa la taliya horta. Leading to the end of 2020, he had huge publicity of the army showing their power, winning almost the sea dispute with Kenya, and the financial ,management of paying salary on time, yet he chose to run away.

Mr. Rooble should put his foot down and start working to implement the election. His moves and capacity to manage the election well might give him an upper leg if Farmaajo wins. He should be out of the shadow and show us his true character.

and it is no longer clear that Somalia’s sitting government has control over the capital These are the people and similar outlets who were reporting on our country for the last 30 years.

It is a okay speech. The first one in four years. He should have made this speech February 8 and explain to people why the term expired without agreement. Anyway, better late than never. The main points: It was good to reassure the public and reject any moves both from the government and opposition to create any displacement of the innocent public. I think the opposition should welcome this gesture and accept his invitation without conditions. Yet, his speech on the election dispute is unclear. Signing the Sep 17 agreement without conditions will not fly among the opposition now. I have to see how the parliament amends the two year extension. Do they have make it six months or withdraw the whole thing?. Does the parliament willing total defeat and scrap the whole thing? I am waiting the answers of the opposition on these issues. Since they have the upper hand at the moment they might demand total surrender. I urge you, Mr. president to accept their conditions and sign them. A

I agree with Mastermind. He is in a weak position now. The meeting will not be only about signing the Sep 17 agreement. They will bring both the security issues and parliament. They will insist that the parliament should not be passing any laws during transition, and all security decisions must made by the premier while consulting them. They might even demand for Amisom to guard major institutions. He is a lame duck president now and should accept their conditions. They had three plans and they might get all of them unless he acts now and signs everything they ask. Plan# 1, delay the elections and they succeeded while he was watching. , Plan# 2, They made sure his term is expired without agreement, They got their mission number two, and he saw that one too. Plan #3 is to force him to resign. Unless the guy is suicidal , he will sign , get some facing and take his chances at the election. Any refusal of the new conditions will be disaster.

Waar anigu wadanka oon weli dumin ayaanba ka sooo baxee, ma waxaad ileedahay beesha Jubba ma qaxin miyaa? dadkii keenya iyo dhadhaab buuxiyey soomaali oo dhan bay ahaayen. Mise Randiile ayaad tahay.