Somalia: Inclusivity, Acrimony and the Pressing National Priority

[Tillamook]

^

Eng...maybe we should take our Ugandan tanks and kick out the Kenyans from Garissa out of Kismayu.

 

This is too easy, I don't even see why Oba bothers with these folks.

[Abwaan]

xiinfaniin;884442 wrote:

Come again Abwaan

 

I am out of the loop these days, but from what I heard it is Somalia's current leadership that is dwelling on past politics. An admin in Kismayo should not cause such a fuss ...

 

But once again you are Abwaan

War waa isku dhexyaacday ninyahow oo Faroole baad la xanaaqdey. Annagaad meelahaan noo lahayd Roadmap baan taageeraa iyo I won.

[Carafaat]

What does the constitution state regarding creating, demarcations of federal states?

[Miyir]

the Elephant in the room. .

 

Somali leaders and supporters lets face the bitter truth an acknowledge that they had many opportunities but failed 22 years again and again own constituents and everyone in Somalia with their short shortsightedness and selfishness.

 

look around you whats left to fight once beautiful cities? first thing first lets have anything that brings stability to the average and powerless masses then argue who owns what.

 

I am afraid we are headed the same old circle of destruction and mass starvation.

[Haatu]

Eng, you're mad sxb, simply mad. This is not the 90s anymore and no one is being sidelined in this process. But then again you probably believe Caydiid was a national hero

[NGONGE]

I get a very strong feeling that all this Kismaayo circus is nothing but a red herring. Can the president of Somalia actually do anything to change the situation to his liking (other than talk I mean)? If not, why then has this argument raged for almost a month? Why is everything else about Somalia's progress being ignored and people like our Mukhtar obsessing over a none story?

 

Worse still, why is the capital of Somalia being dragged into the discussion? I am not sure if Mukhtar opposes the Somali president (in fact, I doubt it). But, this whole story has a strong whiff of opposition to the choice of president for Somalia rather than a dispute about who owns Kismaayo (Mukhtar, as ever, is simply reacting to events).

[xiinfaniin]

Abwaan;884579 wrote:

War waa isku dhexyaacday ninyahow oo Faroole baad la xanaaqdey. Annagaad meelahaan noo lahayd Roadmap baan taageeraa iyo I won.

Iskuma dhex yaacin, adeer, ee ama mawduuca wax ku darso ama doc ka yeernimada jooji. Su'aasha meesha taallaa waxa weeye muxuu maamuul Kismaayo loo sameeyaa u dhimi karaa dawladda federaalka? Yaa mucaaradaya roadmapka, oo weli cuqdad ka qaba federaalka? Yaa ciyaartuu shalay shuruucdeeda ku guulaystay maanta raba in muraajaco lagu sameeyo?

 

Jawaab adiga lagaama rabo, Abwaan. Imtixaanka ugu horreeya ee dawladda hor yaallaa waa Kismaayo

[Jacpher]

I am not sure but the suggestion is out there that the president or whoever is consulting him doesn't want to envision strong D block regional state south of Muqdisho. If this is the case, president Hassan is going to run off the track and set himself up to fail.

 

Let's all hold hands and sing to '90s as we move out of transitional period to a more permanent clan regionalism.

[Baashi]

The poor President is on the hot seat.

 

Whatever he does or decides he is bound to step on someone’s toe. Agree with D block’s plan and bingo! control of Lower Shabelle region will be in play.

 

D&M (Bay, Bakool, Sh, Hoose) and their new allies D of the south (Marka) will go thermo-nuclear and make a stand on the fate of Sh. Hoose. Concede Sh. Hoose status and boom! he will inaugurate real and existential conflict between D&M with their southern D allies and recent economic migrants (from Galmudug/Galgaduud) who set up settlement in the region in the height of the civil war.

 

His own base will try their best to make a play for Benadir which if they do might trigger a constitutional crisis.

 

Oppose D block’s plan in instituting a regional zone in the spirit of Federalism and he nullifies the agreed upon political framework for the post conflict Somalia – the very political settlement that made him a president.

 

It is a zero-sum game. If Jubba confederacy gets its way, Sh. Hoose must make alliance with Bay-Bakool and institute their Federal state. Even though Bay-Bakool could go it alone, Sh. Hoose must have a province to partner with in order to meet the constitutional threshold of forming a regional autonomy.

 

If folks championing federalism succeed in their quest to carve out the Republic into zones that mirror their base in clan composition and built their political and economic clout on clan-geographical terms have their way then the future of stable and strong Somalia will hinge on instable clan dynamics.

 

Here is where the rubber meets the road. The President has a mandate to lead fractured nation to post-conflict era as Federal Republic with Benadir at the center exercising little power over autonomous regions at the periphery. He is also a member of political party that opposes this very idea and has political platform that envisions a united and strong state governed from the center. He has a mandate for implementing the former. He also made allegiance to party roadmap that wants to realize the second goal. The two are irreconcilable.

 

Since the constitution has not been ratified, he has small room to maneuver. One way to bring the two positions closer is to manipulate the parliament and make subtle changes to the constitution that defangs its teeth when it comes to federalism.

 

Secessionist in Hargeisa and Federalist in Garowe are watching and waiting President’s next move. Formation of Jubba Federal State is a litmus test for Federalist. For Secessionist empowering yet another D block with means of production and sound and almost intact infrastructure in a vast and fertile land with strategic port spells a disaster in terms of North-South dynamics.

 

The question of how to deal with Jubba – which has a foreigner backer is really tricky. Mukhtar does not take into account the cascading effect of going one way or another on Jubba question has on recently concluded political settlement.

 

It is tough problem for a politican.

[Che -Guevara]

Eng.Cadde;884462 wrote:

well,i am not the one hiding behind kenyan tanks trying to dispossess other peoples land.

No, you are only hiding behind computer screen.

 

 

Ngonge...nothing is his under control but locals will be better served to comprise.

[Abwaan]

xiinfaniin;884632 wrote:

Iskuma dhex yaacin, adeer, ee ama mawduuca wax ku darso ama doc ka yeernimada jooji. Su'aasha meesha taallaa waxa weeye muxuu maamuul Kismaayo loo sameeyaa u dhimi karaa dawladda federaalka? Yaa mucaaradaya roadmapka, oo weli cuqdad ka qaba federaalka? Yaa ciyaartuu shalay shuruucdeeda ku guulaystay maanta raba in muraajaco lagu sameeyo?

 

Jawaab adiga lagaama rabo, Abwaan. Imtixaanka ugu horreeya ee dawladda hor yaallaa waa Kismaayo

Dowladda hadda ayaa weli dhisme ku socdaa, waan ognahay dad dano kale leh ayaa Kismaayo iyo sheekooyinkaas ku marmarsiiyoonaya. Xasan Sh. Maxamuud haddii uu ka leexdo waddadii uu ku dhaartay inuu dalka ku hagi waxaan noqonayaa dadka ugu horreeya ee ka hor yimaada laakiin horta fursad halla siiyo. Arrinta Kismaayo ma ahan mid sahlan marka ay faragelin ku hayaan waddamo deris ah oo raba inay qabaa'illada Soomaaliyeed soo kala dhaweystaan iyagoo danahooda khaaska ah fiirsanaya. Kismaayo waa magaalo Soomaaliyeed, Xasan Sh. iyo Saacidna ma leh, adna ma lihid anna ma lihi ee Soomaali baa leh, waxaana wanaaggu ku jiraa in la wada ilaashado. Waa dhab in degaanka ay qabaa'illo u badan yihiin balse ma ahan in kan is yiraa hub baa dowlad ku siisay amase ciidankeedaa ku taageeray uu iska dhaadhiciyo inuu dadka ka xigo. Ama halla wada dhisto amase talo xumo ayaa meesha imaan doonta.

Dad baa weli is ceyr-ceyrsigii 90-gii aanba ka korin ma is tiri. War dalkaan waa naga badan yahay cadow iyo dhibaato dhexdeenna ka weyn baana na haysata ee aan taas aragno.

[xiinfaniin]

Abwaan,

 

Kismaayo sida Baashiba kor u sheegay waa imtixaan siyaasadeed oo Madaxweyne Xasan Sheekh laga qaadayo. Dadkii ku dirirayey shalay baa maanta heshiis ku ah inay maamul goboleed u samaystaan. Sidaasay dan bideen. Dawladda ma diidana sida ay leeyihiin, arrintay wadaanna waa dastuuri oo meel fog kamay keenin. Dawladda Kenya aad sheegaysid markay keligeed ahayd anigu waa mucaaraday maantase dharkii AMISOM baa loo tolay, waxay waxbadan dhaanta dawladda Beledweyne kulaalaysa , iyo tan Baydhabo haysa oo diidday inay dharkaa AMISOM xirato. Xaqiiqaddu waxa weeye, Kenya duulaan kuma aha Soomaaliya, faragelinteedana waxaa xalaalaynaya joogitaanka Ugandha iyo waaqica Somaliya koonfurteeda ka jira.

 

Arrinta Kismaayo Soomaali ba leh, waa sax, laakiin kuwa maamulka u dhisayaa soo Soomaali maaha, Axmed Madoobe baha maanta laga didayaa soo kii shalay governor ka ahaa maaha markii maxaakim al islaamiya ay hayeen. Sida Baashi taxliilkiisa kor ku qoran ku sheegay, magaaladda waxay caarad u tahay xaqaa'iqa cusub ee Soomaalidu galayso...waxay iila muuqataa maangaabnimo weyn hadduu Xasan Sheekh ku mashquulo arrinta Kismayo .

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Ala Maxay Somali xanuun qufucaysa.

[Baashi]

War heedhe Xiinka aad quote-garaysay waxuu ka hadlay iyo halka aad la aaday is ma leh! Awoowe adoo raali ah bal ku yara noqo. Waa runtaa oo dowladu ma hana-qaadin wali. Misana waa runtaa oo dagaalkii ahliga in laga gubdaa kharku ku jiraa. Waa runtaa oo gobolku waa 10 million buu ka badan yahay. Intabu waa run.

 

Balse hawsha miiska saaran waa sadex ciidan baa goob wada jooga. Islama socdaan. Qaar waa xulufo, badhna command & control bay wadaagaan. Rag baa wax qaybsanaya, waa isku jiffo, waxbay rabaan inay gaar u riixdaan. Iyagga qudhoodu heshiis ma aha misanna waxa u muuqdaa qaar kale oo aysan isku hayb iyo interest ahayn.

 

Talo, go'aan iyo guddoon intaba waxa laga dhowrayaa madaxweynaha iyo resul wasaarihiisa.

 

Haddii uu madaxweynuhu ka hor yimaado nimankan doonaya inay nidaam hoose sameystaan, qaabka iyo hannaanka ay u sameysanayaa iyo sida ay wax u qaybsanayaana u madax banaanadaan hadde su'aasha Xiin iyo Mukhtaar baa messha soo galeysa?

 

Waxa imanaysa awoowe nidaamka kaa dhigay madaxweyne miyaad wax ka badaleysa after the fact. Taa waa qodob! Kan kale waxa weeye maxay tahay sharciga Somaliland, Puntland iyo Galmudug u ogolaaday in ay xaafadooda si hoose u maareeyaan una maamushaan oo u diidaya xaafada Jubba inay sidoo kale ay u madax banaanaadaan in iyagguna ay si hoose u falaxashaan oo gole ay u dhan yihiin heshiisnaku yihiin u sameystaan?

[xiinfaniin]

^^Baashi Abwaan wuxuu leeyahay madaxweyne Xasan Sheekh hawsha Kismayo kama hor imaan

 

Haseyeeshee Abwaan qudhiisaan war badan hayn; waxaa u daliil ah godka uu rabo inuu su'aalaha ka galo baa wuxuu yahay dawladaa lagasoo horjeeda iyo 1990 baa lagu laabanayaa.