Haatu

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  1. Oodweyne, Xabashi, The problem with you two is that qumanahiinaa qoorta idiin suran as they say. So despite all the evidence I present you will not change your beliefs despite what the research may say. It's probably because you are both from the same generation that failed Africans throughout the continent. So let's just agree to disagree and move on, illaa qalbidhagax lalama dooddi karee.
  2. You seem to misunderstand. Under this plan, all investment will be by local Somali companies. Also their is no international law banner the use of IDP labour (as long as they're paid free workers). If anything, it will be viewed as job creation for vulnerable people. In short, re-read the whole proposal and take off the FDI/aid dependence syndrome most Africans seem to suffer from. This is something radically different.
  3. Oodweyne, You have raised three separate points here. The first is the cultural argument which I have addressed previously. The literature is quite clear on this topic. All unindustrialised societies share traits that are deemed to be not conducive for industrialisation. The same was said about the Confucian states of East Asia as traditionally engineers, technicians, and crafts people were looked down upon. You can imagine how that cultural perception has changed. You presented the example of Rwanda. Let me counter by asking you to ponder how a population in the depths of depravity killed 3 million of its own in cold blood is capable today of economic development in your estimation? What has changed? The people are the same, the values and beliefs are the same. What has changed is they have an authoritarian leader who wants to develop his country. That is the only required factor to kickstart industrialisation. I'm sure you also remember how back in the day the nomads refused to have pit latrines in their compounds and how they preferred to defecate in the open. Those same nomads all have musqullo today. I'm sure you also remember how those very nomads also used to turn their noses to farming and yet thousands of them today do the gun's work. Culture can change. The second point is efficient and corrupt free institutions. This likewise is not a prerequisite requirement for industrialisation as the experience of Korea has shown. After the Korean war, S Korea was totally decimated and what state institutions were left were highly inefficient and corrupt. A USAID report at the time essentially described the country as a bottomless pit that would never amount to anything. The civil service was so weak that they used to send teams to Pakistan of all countries to be trained. However, this weak and highly corrupt civil service was able to deliver Park Chung Hee's economic miracle. How? The dictator overlooked corruption in other sectors of the state and economy but he did not tolerate a single won being misplaced in his pet industrialisation projects. The weak civil service with not much experience made mistakes initially, but the process is such that the close cooperation between government and big business means lessons can be learned in real time and rectifying steps be taken. Corruption is still a big problem in Korea to this day but that has not impeded economic development. I'm sure you remember the former president being impeached and currently serving a 25 year sentence due to corruption. Contrast this with India which received a highly trained and efficient civil service from the British. Despite that, the Indians have been unable to replicate S Korea's economic success. As for the third point of political stability and legitimacy, here I fully agree with you. The proposals I am suggesting will not be welcomed by some sections of society, in particular private capital, so strong political leadership with a will and vision is required. This in essence is what differentiates the countries that have been successful and those that haven't. It is why you rightly suggest that Rwanda today stands a good chance of industrialising. But I say, even our Ismaaciil Cumar Geelle of Jabuuti can easily implement these policies and develop his country as he has the political power to do so. All that is required is the will. Now, I agree that Somalia is currently not there yet, but I fully believe that some aspects of my proposal can easily be implemented today if their is the political will in Villa Somalia. Opening one small industrial complex on the outskirts of Xamar and linking it with a road to the port is not rocket science. And there are countless businessmen in Bakaaraha who I am sure are more than willing to invest if the support package is in place. I highly recommend you read Ha-Joon Chang's Bad Samaritans. He is a Cambridge economics professor and he explains all I have said and much more in a light-hearted manner for the non-economist. It can be found on Amazon and now that you're in lockdown I'm sure you don't have much else to do.
  4. Part 3 With China currently moving up the technological ladder, it is leaving low-tech industries such as textiles and garment making. Due to the size of China and it's mammoth industrial capacity, no single country can fill the void on its own. There's more than enough demand to go round even with Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh etc taking some of it. This is why the next few years are a Golden opportunity for any country wanting to industrialise to enter the textile industry. It is vitally important that Somalia does not lose out on this opportunity even if the security situation is still not optimum. Why did I choose the outskirts of Mogadishu for this industrial complex? For two reasons. Firstly, there is a large population of unemployed and predominantly IDPs in Xamar of predominantly farming heritage. This serves two benefits. Firstly, desperate IDPs are more than willing to work for the low wages textile firms can afford and there are thousands of them providing a steady pool of labour. Also, the farmers, unlike the nomads, are hard workers and disciplined, essential qualities for factory workers. Secondly, when countries start industrialising, their only competitive edge is low cost. By having the industrial complex on the coast near a port, logistic costs are reduced to a minimum, helping with cost effectiveness (this is why Ethiopia will struggle). That's why all successful Asian countries built their first industrial complexes on the coast: Shenzhen in China, Ulsan in South Korea etc. The port in Mogadishu is the biggest and most developed of the ports under government control so it makes sense to base the complex near here. As industrialisation picks up pace, further industrial complexes will be needed in other coastal cities and even inland to achieved balanced development but that is at a later stage. Once the country gets a foothold in the textile industry and the billions start to come in, the country must not rest on its laurels. This is actually when the hard work begins and where many countries such as Bangladesh have failed. You see, in initial industrialisation countries can only compete based on cost. However, as wages rise and other entrants enter the market, you lose your low-cost competitive advantage. To escape this, you must climb the technological ladder. This means entering newer, more technologically sophisticated markets. This means entering the electronics, paper, steel, petrochemical, and cement industries. This requires a lot of capital and expertise but it can be done. If the 5% development tax is levied on the textile industry and all agricultural exports, and foreign exchange controls are in place and national development bank financing is used, it is possible. Also, the technology for these industries are available for sale from leading companies, especially those in financial difficulties. For example, a Pakistani company that makes car batteries last year bought the technology to make tyres from one of Korea's leading tyre manufacturers Kumho for just $5 million initially and 2.5% of the turnover for a 10 year period. In return, Kumho will provide the Pakistani company with all the machinery, process engineering, engineers, technicians, training of Pakistani workers, and marketing. You can imagine after the 10 year period, this Pakistani company will be ready to go it alone. Once you master one industry, you simply keep going up the ladder. So once you start making tyres, the next step might be manufacturing some of the fibres that go into the tyres. This sequential step-wise import substitution industrialisation coupled with export promotion is how to build up an industrial base, and use the proceeds from that base to develop the country's infrastructure and amenities, and give citizens high salaries in high tech companies. I'm sure many of us would love to live back home. But unfortunately the high paying jobs and the amenities we have in the West simply don't exist back home. Rapid industrialisation is the quickest and most sustainable way to achieve those goals (unlike the unsustainable economies of resource driven countries).
  5. The current coronavirus pandemic has exposed many so-called develop regions of the world. It has also exposed the fallacy of neo-liberalism. Trump's America essentially begging S Korea to send them medical protective clothing and testing kits was the icing on the cake. In short, the countries (Europe and America) that sacrificed that sacrificed their industrial base on the altars of neo-liberalism and free markets are struggling, and the countries (S Korea, Taiwan, China, even Turkey) that maintained their industrial bases are doing just fine. This crisis should make it clear to all the urgent need for nations to industrialise rapidly so that they possess the industrial and technical capacities to manufacture at the very least essential goods (in particular medical goods). This is as vital as food security. Many countries without an industrial base are really in a pickle in the East Asian countries refuse/are unable to export PPE and testing kits. Korea said they received orders and requests from over 100 countries. They simply can't meet that demand. Turkey has said it will only export any surplus after the domestic need is met.
  6. The cultural arguments against development have already been debunked. You can read the literature on the subject. As for this narrative that Somalis are inherently lazy and will not work for a wage, that is patently false for all to see. The are countless people that work very hard back home for pennies and countless more desperate for jobs. I listened to a podcast the other day where the guest spoke about the dangers of having others (scientists, historians, anthropologists) narrate the Somali story. And one of the things he mentioned was the negative stereotype of the Somali pushed, especially since the civil war. All you here is the Somalis are incapable of compromise, of living under authority, inherently unruly, lazy etc. It is so ubiquitous that even many Somalis believe this to be the case. Why? Because we went through a 30 year civil war. Many nations on Earth went through worse but nobody says that about them. The answer, we need to be the narrators of our own story.
  7. Robert Wade, an economics professor at the London School of Economics and the world expert in Taiwan's economic development concluded at the end of his book on the subject that the most efficient system for economic development is an authoritarian system. Why? Because as shown by China, authoritarian systems have the power to invest limited national resources into sectors deemed necessary for national development, not where private interests can make the most profit. However, the caveat is that it must be a developmental authoritarianism in the guise of Park Chung Hee's Korea or Communist China, not an African banana republic authoritarianism.
  8. The Chinese simply realised what all bankers know: that money enters the system whenever a loan is taken out. It then becomes a choice as to whether that bank is private and the profits therefore remain private, or whether that bank is public so the benefits accrued benefit the society at large. The neo-liberal West chose the private route and their economies are suffering as a result, whereas the Chinese chose the public route and their people are better off for it. As an illustration, the UK is still debating whether to build its first high speed rail and the budget is already in the billions of £s. In that time, the Chinese have managed to build the worlds most extensive high speed rail network. As for the time it takes to develop, you are right it is increasing. It took England roughly 150 years, Japan 70 years, Taiwan and S Korea 40 years, and China just under 30 years, and Turkey will probably beat that record. As you can see, with modern technology and as the world market grows, the pace of development is increasing, but only with the right policies. Ethiopia started upon this path with Zenawi who was well read in the East Asian Economic Miracle and the results he achieved in a short space of time with hardly any money were astounding. That should be proof to all that these policies work even in a desperately poor and underdeveloped country. However, unfortunately for them Zenawi died and those that came after him were clueless.
  9. This reminded me of the old reer waamo saying/poem: Wada dhashaa dhaxal ku doodee, dhanfaruurow dhaxda ka bax!
  10. Oodweyne, You have a valid point but we all know how hypocritical those Western powers can be. As of now, it is clear certain European powers are in bed with the N&N regime to get their hands on the off-shore oil wealth. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them turn a blind eye to some arms entering the country in an irregular manner in return for what they want.
  11. Yes services have improved since he came that is true. But on the bigger issues that affect us all he has totally failed. And that is what he will be measured by.
  12. Oodweyne, Somalia can bypass the arms embargo using the black market. All it needs to do that is cash and this recent development opens up that possibility. Even non state entities like the Houthis are able to buy arms on the black market.
  13. War niyow intee ku maqnayd all these years? I've supported every Somali government since Xukuumaddii Carta, even the despicable Yey regime. I am a unitarian and centralist after all. So it shouldn't come as a surprise to you I support the current regime in Xamar. Xaaji Xunjuf, Niyow yaan been laguu sheegin. There is no such thing as a D block. It is a fairy tale with no substance.
  14. Sayidka Soomaalida wuxuu yiri Alla ha u raxmadee: Ninka yidhi wax baan gani anoo, Gol iyo Cayn jooga Ee yidhi badii Garacad baan, gudub u weydaarin Godka lagu cadaabyow muxuu, go'uhu been sheegay. Midda naga qoslisay waa andacadii aad la soo shirtagtay ee ahayd Dawladda Soomaaliya ma xukunto hawada dalka. Taasna way noo wada caddaatay. As for Ethiopian it's obvious the Biixi regime entered closed door negotiations with the Xabashi to keep flights going and kudos to them. It's also obvious that Dawladda Soomaaliya has no power to refuse the Ethiopians irrespective of who controls the airspace. Which is why these Ethiopian flights are still probably being given landing instructions from Xamar despite the airspace being closed. But rag iska dhici yuusan cudur iyo hoog idiin keenin.
  15. Oodweyne, the "mujaahid" presented valid evidences for his views. Do you have any for yours?