Xaaji Xunjuf Posted March 6 deputy pm spoke very well he is very articulate he is a bright future Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illyria Posted March 7 No need for a war between Somalis / Muslims, besides the US bogus war on terror died with Bush Jr. Move the effing on from being camiiliin. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maakhiri1 Posted March 7 2 hours ago, Illyria said: No need for a war between Somalis / Muslims, besides the US bogus war on terror died with Bush Jr. Move the effing on from being camiiliin. I honestly agree, we have to negotiate asap, enough of killings. I am surprised HSM did even attempt to open talks Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Xaaji Xunjuf Posted March 7 if hassan sheikh could not reach a deal with Somaliland after 12 years talks as a two term president what makes u think he can give any sort of concessions or make a deal with Alshabaab Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
galbeedi Posted March 7 35 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said: what makes u think he can give any sort of concessions or make a deal with Alshabaab Al-shbaab could no longer disrupt life and bomb Mogadishu at will anymore, and this was achieved through hard work . People paid through blood and treasurer to to reduce the threat. I agree that eventually there will be a negotiated settlement. I was one of those who wanted to sit down with Al-shbaab no matter what, but the reality is different from the ground. You can't negotiate in a position of weaknesses. You have to remove the gun from your head first, build your capacity, weaken your enemies threat to eliminate you and then negotiate. Just this week, the government had closed 110 business accounts of associates of Al-shbaab with millions of dollars taken in. These moves are more damaging than the gun. A cash starved Al-shbaab would no longer bribe soldiers or hire people for the crime. I believe that an offensive must be waged in Lower Shabeelle before negotiations could take place because that will allow to negotiate from the position of strength. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
galbeedi Posted March 7 No need to negotiate the Hargeisa regime unless they denounce secessions, period. All they are looking is cash. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Xaaji Xunjuf Posted March 7 time will tell indeed if Somalia can defeat Alshabaab its been over a decade now lets how long this continues Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illyria Posted March 7 6 hours ago, galbeedi said: No need to negotiate the Hargeisa regime unless they denounce secessions, period. All they are looking is cash. For the public good, and best outcome, of course negotiate with both SL & AS, as was the advice the US/EU offered XSM in his first trip to the US before he initiated a war he knew he could neither win nor had the support, militarily, logistically, or financially. 6 hours ago, galbeedi said: Al-shbaab could no longer disrupt life and bomb Mogadishu at will anymore, and this was achieved through hard work. Let not the aesthetics of Xamar seduce you, as AS is very much present, in control of its vital organs, business or otherwise, laying low with their leaders still in the city, collecting dues at the airport, port, even government officials, and could easily disrupt taking over the city, but the question is: could they hang on to it. Recall how everyone thought Thaliban were dead and buried, yet it took them a week to take over Afghanistan. Same tactics and methods in play here. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illyria Posted March 12 AS retakes Bacaadweyne, Camaara, and Shabeelow. Balcad & Cadale feared to be next. If accurate, then it is as predicted. https://fb.watch/qLGJ9GAwd-/ --------------------------------------------- Hudson institute, a DoD outlet released its September report. Its conclusion: Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity. Given the improbability of a decisive military victory in the coming months or even years, the previously taboo notion of negotiating with the terrorists has gained traction in certain Somali political circles of late. President Hassan Sheikh has even oscillated between claiming that the objective of the current offensive is al-Shabaab’s complete battlefield defeat and claiming that the offensive aims to push the group into negotiations. [ ] In principle there is no reason to prefer an endless and fitful counterinsurgency to negotiations, but in practice it would be difficult to secure anything like an acceptable compromise at this stage. Some Somali security sources with knowledge of the group suggested that while al-Shabaab might enter negotiations with international powers, such as the US and Turkey (likely with mediation by Qatar, whose role in Somalia has proven controversial), it has no interest in speaking to the Somali government, which it sees as illegitimate and weak. [ ] At present this looks to be the best-case scenario, though unfortunately not the most likely one. But policymakers would do well to consider scenarios that might be acceptable to their interests rather than buy into unrealistic claims about the impending defeat of Africa’s most powerful jihadist group. https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Faltering+Lion+-+James+Barnett+Sep+2023.pdf Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites