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Everything posted by Gabbal

  1. No, they are both under Al Shabaab currently. Beled-Xaawo was the fiercest resistance Al Shabaab put up in Gedo and the town suffered massively in the drive to remove Al Shabaab. It was the strongest and first line Al Shabaab defense in the Jubba Valley. They regrouped in Baardheere and this is where they held their first line since. A move to take Baardheere will result in similar destruction so for political reasons the Gedo troops have waited to take it with ease. Personally, and obviously there is some bias in this, but if Kismaayo will not become the capital of Jubbaland it makes sense Baardheere, the second largest city in the Jubba Valley and in the middle of the Jubba Valley to assume that position. After Kismaayo, it is the town capable of hosting a strong federal state in the Jubba Valley. The pro-Baardheere lobby was so strong the capital was not ratified and will be deliberated once more.
  2. From my understanding the capital was not agreed to. Bu'aale was what the technical committee brought forth but it was not ratified and faced competitiom from Kismaayo and Baardheere. They will be returning to this issue for further deliberation.
  3. Xiin, it is true Somali expansion would have certainly expanded even further
  4. Serinleey is Baardheere today. From Dolo to Serinleey is pretty much the full extent of Gedo Region today. I suppose this only comes as a surprise to those who still believe the late Barre resettled his clansman during his rule.
  5. He has not joined the conference thus far. Maxamed Ugaas Xaashi went to Kismaayo for many reasons including to help some of the participants of his clan unite their voice nationally.
  6. Codweyne is blowing hot air. They will fol. The PM just legitimized Kaliil's unofficial regionally accepted governorship.
  7. No, they are multi-tribal who have shown abject respect for the legitimacy of the Somali government. The era of factions is over. Armed forces from henceforth will work to secure an environment where the Somali government has total legitimacy and respect.
  8. Mooge, don't worry sxb. You need heart to take up a cause and they have plenty of it. They will be provided for and more will be transferred to Kismaayo under a new plan.
  9. Jacpher- I have always found it odd this attempt to form a permanent administration for a land in transition. Most of Lower Jubba is Al Shabaab-held, so is all of Middle Jubba, and the entire southern third of Gedo. Why the rush when priority should dictate A, B, before C? Between Garbahaaray and the Indian Ocean, only Afmadoow and Dhooblay are Al Shabaab-free and only because of Kenyan garrison inside the town and Shabaab infestation just outside of town. The entire territory is in transition. These points are quite relevant and I think they will reflect a large part of the outcome.
  10. Oodweyne- I don't know why Xiin is trying to "otherize" these items. Actually when I first heard about it I thought Gedo Governor Mohamed Abdi Kalil and his Garbahaaray Coalition wrote them. To my knowledge, he was the first and only entity to publicly state and reiterate these views before the PM unfolded them. Here is Kalil on VOA saying the land must be totally freed before such conference and it must be government-led: Mar Kaliil wax laga weydiiyay suurtagal nimada maamul loo dhan yahay oo loo sameeyo gobolada Jubbooyinka ayaa waxuu ku jawaabay “anaga mowqifka yaga ku wajahan maamul u sameynta gobolada Jubbooyinka wax qarsoon ma ahan oo horaan marar badan u sheegnay, waxa aan rabnana waxaa weeye in marka hore gobolada weli ku jira gacanta Al-shabaab laga xoreeyo, kaddibna markii dhulka la’isu furo la iclaamiyo shirweyne ay kasoo qeyb galayaan dhamaan odayaasha, aqoonyahanada, iyo siyaasiyiinta kasoo jeeda gobolada Jubbooyinka, ayada oo waliba ay dowladda Soomaaliya shirka noocaas ah oo lagu dhisaayo maamul goboleedka Jubbaland ay garwadeen ka noqon doonto.” Here he says the current conference must be preceded by a reconciliation conference:: Shirkani ayaa socon doona maalmaha fooda nagu soo hayo, iyadoona la filayo in gabagabada shirka lagu soo dhiso maamul goboleed ay yeelan doonaan sedexda gobol ee Jubada Hoose, J/dhexe iyo Gedo, waxaana uu shirkan kusoo beegmaya xilli shir wadatashi ah oo isna maanta lagu soo gabagabeeyay magaalada Garbahaareey ee xarunta gobolka Gedo, go'aanadii kasoo baxay ay ka mid ahaayeen in dhismaha maamulka jubbaland ka hor loo baahanyahay in xoogga la saaro sidii Al-shabaab looga saari lahaa gobolladaasi, iyo in dhismaha maamulka laga hormariyo shir dib u heshiisiin ah oo ay isugu yimaadaan beelaha dega gobollada Jubooyinka. Here Kaliil labels Ras Kamboni a "jabhad" when defending his decision to send troops to Kismaayo calling its existence "untenable" while saying the government, as the recognized national polity, should have control over the affairs of the land not foreign armies: Sidoo kale, mar la weydiiyay su’aal ahayd fikirka ay ka qabaan maamul u sameynta Jubbooyinka ayuu sheegay in maamulkaas aan loo dhameyn, mana jirto jabhad maamul u sameyn karta Jubbooyinka, waayo dalka lagama aqoonsano buu yiri jabhado. “Dalka dowlad ayuu leeyahay waana inay dowladdu hoggaamiso maamul u sameynta gobollada dalka, ciidamada Kismaayo tagayna waxay ku tageen qorshe dowladeed,” ayuu guddoomiyaha gobolka Gedo ku daray hadalkiisa. In fact all of these conditions were at one point or another stated by Kalil and his coalition and they have held it from the beginning. It seems the Federal Government has found it suitable (I would too if I was in the government, it gives a lot of respect to its legitimacy than the status quo) and decided to champion it. The President is unfairly being characterized for tribal reasons designed to instill a hollow sense of unity through an attempt of "otherization".
  11. The PM will be staying in Kismaayo longer than assumed. These are the list of items he unfolded which his government wants to pursue: 1. Turn the current Jubbaland-building conference into a regional reconciliation conference for the people of the three regions 2. This conference will be presided over by the Federal Government which will grant legitimacy nationally and internationally 3. At which point all non-government and non-AMISOM names or factions will be laid disbanded and fully integrated (Ras Kamboni, Ahlu Sunnah, etc) 4.During which the Federal Govt will name a 6-month temporary administration for the regions while Al Shabaab is being removed from all areas of the territory 5. During these 6 months the government administration will have full control over revenue collecting sevices 6. After 6 months implementation of federalism will ensue and the people of the regions will be given all aid to realize this dream We will see what the final outcome becomes.
  12. The disagreement over them was the reason for the recent Nairobi conference these men have just come back from. I am sorry the name of a region bugs you.
  13. The Somali soldiers in the airport are the recent ones from Ceel-waaq, Gedo and their commander Col Cabaas seems quite pleased with the Nairobi agreement.
  14. Is Gedo now a boogeyman misused to attempt to disarm? War nimanyahoow geedahaas ku beeran isla gobolkaas miyaaydan ogeyn Xiin tabcashadiisa inay xudun u tahay?
  15. With all of the punditry and privilege of discussion that the diaspora holds, I think we sometimes lose perspective about the reality of Somalia. It is a totally destroyed society at the bottom of all levels of human development. Even what we sometimes herald as progress is wholly as a result of humanitarian aid and not anything resulting from self-sufficiency of society. In the backdrop of all of this we still have reports of our people dying from lack of basic drinking water and basic food. Our need for governance and stability and the desire for governance and order should reflect this reality.
  16. In their attempts to correct our good friend Oodweyn, both Baashi and more so Xiin have issued statements that require strong fact checking. I have done it before and do not find it appropriate to engage in it this time. With that said both are right when they say there is political understanding with regards the end goals; that being from Dollow on the Ethiopian border to Kismaayo on the Indian Ocean being joned together in a Federal. The process today is markedly different from the day it was started and even the day the "gogol" was spread out the month before. They are also correct to point out the elders especially along with business and civil society have shown a marked engagement in this correct process and the participation reflects this reality. Xiin is incorrect to say Gedo will have 120 invites. Gedo will have 165 invites because of the number of its districts which will bring it inline with the desired 27 represents per districts goal with the exception of Kismaayo's 50 delegates from its multitude of clans.As I am told in the coming days the rest of the delegates will be transported to Kismaayo including the main traditional leader of the Gedo clain, the Ugas Mohamed Ugas Hashi Ugas Hersi. I foresee the government will find the good grace to announce a policy shift once such legitimacy is shown by all the stakeholders who have held out.
  17. Xoosh was part of a group of wealthy men which included Uunlaaye and Jirde Hussein. Why try to delegitimize his hard work? He has not worked a day in government. If he got to his level because of nepotism certainly a lot more members of his clan would be in that group and certainly much more who were political insiders.. Then they ask why Somalis cannot find peace
  18. In a business sense it doesn't even make sense. While Somaliland does claim to be independent much of the business and travel link is still interdependent with other parts of Somalia. The Mogadishu government can simply put pressure on airlines to protect the integrity of their institutions by making accessible more flghts to Somalia that do not go through Somaliland. The market will be influenced by that political intrusion and cause less of an incentive for planes desiring to have a greater market share of Somalia's larger travel industry to have more routes through Somaliland.
  19. Cabdishakuur is a well known personality and he is not the spokesman of the Prime Minister. He is a deputy minister and a man many in the Somali media consider their man in the cabinet. The Somaliland media took a small misunderstanding out of context to add to attempts to dramatize relationship between the Somali government and the Somaliland region. He is safely back in Mogadishu where his trip was destined.
  20. Very impressive reception. It is certainly the most warm and endearing welcome I have seen given in Puntland. If the camaraderie captured on picture is anything to go by I would think the Prime Minister and Puntland executive will be on first name basis from now on with clear and open channels of communication between them.
  21. Xiin- There is no reason for clan fighting and insecurity. However, a false peace has existed with one group physically empowered by a foreign force. Security and political conundrums have arisen that mitigate a more even handed approach.