Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. Somaliland needs to act/run fast on Meat and Cattle export facility. Djibouti has state of the art now. Sudan just decided to get into the action in a big way. Remember that the 3 Northern regions of Ethiopia can use Sudan just as convenient and as easy they can use Djibouti, Somaliland and even Puntland. Kismayu may have been the best location, but has ong way. Establishing first is a key.
  2. Monday January 15, 2018 By Jeff Z. Klein (Niagara Frontier Heritage Project) Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo watches as ballots are counted at Mogadishu Airport on Feb. 8, 2017. He won, and left his job at the state DOT in Buffalo to become president of Somalia. Ilyas Ahmed/AMISOM Three world leaders have called Western New York their home. The first two, the American presidents Millard Fillmore and Grover Cleveland, are well known to people living in the region. The third is less celebrated here. But the story of Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed — the Buffalonian better known as Farmaajo, elected president of Somalia in February 2017 — is every bit as incredible, and momentous, as that of practically any leader anywhere. His ascent to the presidency touched off ecstatic celebrations, both in war-torn Somalia and in the Somali diaspora around the world. The first year of his presidency has been dangerous and difficult, as was always expected in a country riven by violence for so long – “There is a daunting task ahead of me, and I know that,” he said upon accepting the position – but his reputation for honesty and good governance has so far remained intact. Farmaajo, the son of a civil servant, was born in Somalia in 1962. He earned his nickname for his childhood love of cheese (formaggio in Italian, the language of the country that colonized Somalia in the early 20th century). From 1985 to ’89, he worked at the Somali embassy in Washington, but like so many of his generation, he was forced into exile by the collapse of the central government at home and the rise of warlords and disintegration of civil society that followed. In 1989, he moved to Buffalo and enrolled at UB. His long stay in Western New York had begun. Farmaajo graduated with a degree in history in 1993 and over the next 16 years worked at the Buffalo Municipal Housing Authority, the Erie County Division of Equal Employment Opportunity and the New York State Department of Transportation — a hat trick of civil service jobs with the city, county and state. Throughout this period Farmaajo was known to his American friends and colleagues as, simply, Mohamed A. Mohamed, a smart, nice, soft-spoken guy who lived with his wife, two sons and two daughters in their homes, first on the West Side, then in Amherst and finally, on Grand Island. But in Buffalo’s growing Somali community he was recognized as a man of prominence who might play a role in the future of his war-ravaged homeland in the Horn of Africa. He conferred with other notable Somalis living in Western New York, like Abdiweli Mohamed Ali Gaas, an economics professor at Niagara University, and Gaas’s wife, Hodan Isse, a UB economics professor. He taught his job specialty, conflict resolution, at Erie Community College. And he earned a Master’s degree in American Studies at UB. His thesis: “U.S. Strategic Interest in Somalia: From the Cold War Era to the War on Terror.” Suddenly, in October 2010, Farmaajo was appointed Somalia’s new prime minister, the second most powerful post in the government. It seemed like a bolt from the blue to his Buffalo friends, but the Somali community was not surprised at all; they knew he had met with the Somali president at the United Nations in New York. Still, Farmaajo’s task seemed impossible — the Somali government controlled only parts of the capital, Mogadishu, and little else in the chaotic country. “Every morning when I was brushing my teeth I heard bullets hitting the metal over my window,” he told The New York Times. “It was like, pop pop pop pop. The first day I was shocked. But after that I knew the bullets would not get through, so I continued brushing.” Farmaajo quickly earned a reputation for honesty and transparency in government, winning international praise for creating stability in notoriously unstable Somalia. But infighting among factions of the government forced him to resign in June 2011. Protests broke out across Somalia and among Somalis living abroad, from Nairobi to London to Toronto. (He was succeeded as prime minister by his deputy, Gaas, the Niagara University professor, who lasted only four months in the job.) So it was back to Buffalo for Farmaajo, back to his job at DOT, and back to his old cubicle, with its window facing Swan Street. “It’s a different feeling when you’re heading a whole nation and you come back to your normal life,” he told The Buffalo News. “It’s a little awkward, to tell you the truth.” And yet, five and a half years later Farmaajo was back in Somalia, this time to run for president. The election was held in a secure zone at Mogadishu airport. The voters were the members of the Somali parliament; the majority of them, like Farmaajo, had lived in North America or Europe for many years and were familiar with the protocols of good government. The voting was monitored by international observers. Security was provided by troops of the African Union. Farmaajo won on the second ballot, on Feb. 8, 2017. Eight days later he was sworn in. As president, he would put to use some of the skills he developed in Buffalo. “Violence comes from conflicts, and I’ve learned how to resolve conflicts,” he once said in his old office, gazing out over Swan Street. “That’s exactly what I do here.”
  3. Che, If we treat the D and H as the Anglo and French for Canada or English and Scottish for Britain and there is a lot of examples in Italy, France etc, Strong regional government is the key. It does not matter provinces, states... There is only one PM chair, one president chair in Mogadishu. Only a person from one clan can sit on one chair at any time. If that chair is too powerful and too interfering in daily life of the whole country, it will never be seen as ones own, will be seen as foreign to the next region. The solution is most things should be done by region. Some people say, if regions control too many things, they will make the country weaker and will lead to split like Yugoslavia or Soviets. What people forget is that Russia, Yugoslavia etc were top down empires, so is Ethiopia to some extent. If you are going to split, spliting from centre is worst anyway. Everyone fighting Mogadishu is worst split than from federal where regions can influence each other. Ethiopia was almost lost when regions were all fighting against Addis, but now conflicts are regional and solutions are mostly regional. The rest of the Amhara region was more shocked and immediately moved to resolve what happened to the Agew/Tigray in Gonder, than Addis Ababa. The Amhara region realized that the stakes are higher for him, the danger is greater for him than to the Agew/Tigre. The Amhara actually lives more scattered than the Agew/Tigre. The D and H have same. As long as they hide their competition, by looking to Mogadishu, the solution will be long and painful and uncknown result. But if each put house in order and compete with business, education, health, safety/security in a short time they realize they have common enemy of not having development, no education, no health, no safety and security in their locality..etc. That is where federalism comes in. I know its looked at suspiciously by many Somalis, but the logic is simple. If you make your own house clean, up kept and organized the nation is a collection of houses, there fore the whole nation becomes organized and clean. If every region manages to keep order and governance the way it sees fit, its easy to bring all the regions together since they will have a stake. Hard to trust a Somali that tells you the whole country should be the starting point, while his own house or district is prone to Shabab or any other foreign influence. Or he is prone to using unsavory elements to pressure other region. The war lords have tried it, it did not work, cannot work. The least painful process is that regions put their house in order. That should be the competition, otherwise if everyone wants to control Puntland before puting Mogadishu in order, the same cycle will continue.
  4. So far so good with his trips. That Djibouti visit was brilliant. I hope next on his itinerary and one the many is Jigjiga. A lot of on the ground issues to talk about. Quite a few rough spots to smoothen. Any Somali leader from outside of Ethiopia needs to learn its a must that he uses the door Somali region rather than windows that can be opened and closed with wind.
  5. Ethiopia's foreign minister is in Khartoum: For talks on Security and peace. "Ethiopia and Sudan will facee with dialogue anyone that have issues, but any escalation is responsibility of those who escalate"
  6. maakhiri1, Absolutely. Until the 19-20 century the Somali was always able to get even or do more. Then the Somali had instirutions, which as you said were the first ones to be dismantled. I am not sure how it happened, but every Somali clan and sub-clans is represented in Ethiopia, while there is one or two in other countries. The only ones the Somali had difficulty getting even or do more seem to be the Afar, no wonder the Somali and Afar are the same in everything except language. The Oromo went everywhere except Afar and Tigray. The Somali of course they were running away from, but now coming back with various methods. Suldaanka, Don't underestimate the power of villages. Some villages in history have brought down empires. What is done by agreement and convincing, no matter how long it takes, will last much longer. What is brought by war is easy to undo when situation changes.
  7. Saalax, Not that I support Somalilands separation/independence, but If you are having a tib tab with Suldaanka please disregard my comment, otherwise: 1. Eritrea fought continously non stop for 30 years and Ethiopia was the first country that recognized it. 2. South Sudan fought on OFF since 1958 and Sudan was first country that recognized it. After 300 years of union and playing a big role in the British Empire, Scotland wants to separate In Eritrea's case all it took was for the Afar-Tigray to say enough killing brothern and going backwards, famine, destruction. The Somali in Ethiopia also was one of those that said enough of war. In Sudan all it took was the northern peoples including Al-Beshir's ethnic to say enough is enough we are becoming victims of Egypt and America. Come to think about it, It might take just Puntland (who singlehandedly without anyones help staved off Shabab, ICU..etc and all incarnations starting with the likes of Ali-Jama internal) and some other region that is tired of Mogadishu. At least except few skirmishes here and there Somaliland's situation is not affecting the rest of the country. No matter how you feel about it, Puntland is the key. SFG should invest as well as spend a lot in Puntland.
  8. Yes sir. You need to say more. The landlocked Ethiopia of today is the same landlocked Ethiopia of 1890. The advent of the Amhara king. Rather than fight any of the Europeans, he sold Eritrea to italy, Djibouti to French, parts of Sudan to British Empire. he even got rewarded for not disputing Zeila a sultanate that was connected to Ethiopia. Remeber that the British offered Zeila more than once to Ethiopia, including in 1950s after the failure of making all Somali in one country. This Ethiopia that you see today is exactly the same as it was in the 1890s. Ethiopia before that was far to north, north west and east. The king then last one of that Ethiopia was Tigray. He had 4 kingdoms under kings and 3 sultanates under him. BTW amazingly the federal system looks same as the kingdoms and sultanates of then. fully autonomous. His wife was an Afar. But generally I agree that even the Ottomans are gone even if Turkey the home of the empire, is one of the most important countries in the world. Westerners say every dog has his day. Its amazing though societies have memory. Its very easy for Erdogan to tell the turks that they can be great society in the future, since they ones have been there. In a much smaller scale its also same for the Ethiopians
  9. Illey did the right thing. Its more humaine the steps he took. It also showed the Somali is in control of his areas relative to the Oromo. But most importantly Illey did not jail the Oromo and brought mob to kill them. He actually calmed Somalis that had lost relatives to the Oromo, to go the legal root.
  10. Too many interests in it. Its like Djibouti. Everyone wants it to just be there, China, Turkey, Russia, USA, Britain, Canada, Germany...who is who in the world seems to have something there. Che, Which empire are you looking at, Axum is long gone, Ethiopia before 1890 the advent of Amhara is long gone, Eritrea and parts of Sudan are debris from prior to 1890. The After 1890 Ethiopia is exactly as is today, except the status of the Somali that was under British until 1950s.
  11. Salini the builder of the dam and METEC builder of power plant https://www.salini-impregilo.com/en/projects/in-progress/dams-hydroelectric-plants-hydraulic-works/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-project.html MAIN TECHNICAL DATA: MAIN DAM Height: 155 m Length: 1,780 m Excavations: 3,500,000 m³ Volume: 10,200,000 m³ POWERHOUSES (x2) Right river-bank: 10 Francis turbines, each offering 375 MW Left river-bank: 6 Francis turbines, each offering 375 MW POWER & ENERGY Installed power: 6,000 MW Generation capacity: 15,000 GWh/year ROCKFILL SADDLE DAM Height: 50 m Length: 5,000 m Rockfill Volume: 16,500,000 m³
  12. Tillamook, You are giving too much weight to Tigray. I know they are the most culturally preserved people, but are among the poorest of the poor materially. Mengistu shut them down from getting help and a million of them perished, was only 1984. If they can leapfrog and make some of us think they are under every nomad tree shed or as westerners say under every bed, then everyone needs to study these people. You are also giving me too much credit then as a result. What is so difficult to accept the fact that the Oromo Janjewid leaders are called QERO which in Arabic means Shabab? What is so difficult to accept when facts are presented. BTW you need to worry less about Tigray and Oromo. Tigray is the only regional state with which the Oromo do not have borders in all of Ethiopia.
  13. This is the worst time to wish any Somali enclave even a village to conflict. Lets wish everyone where ever they are to have government, organization and or administration. It is easier to have compromise later than now. Once a region develops enough and is peaceful, will outgrow its area and will need to trade and interact with neighbor, then things can be done calmly where people have something to loose. At this time there is a lot of territories where don't have much to loose if conflict arises. These can be used by anyone who has some petro-dollar money and empires all around.
  14. Will the SPDP (governing party of Somali Region of Ethiopia) join EPRDF (united front governing Ethiopia)? This seems to be a major issue for the Oromo according to their web sites. The Oromo are saying that the Somali should not join the EPRDF. Some are saying, the Somali should not join a falling front, but support to downfall of EPRDF. This of course is fake. The real reason according to the analysis deep inside the article is that the Somali will be aligned to the South and to the Tigray, 2 of the 4 parties in EPRDF. The 2 closest regions that may be ready to join happen to be furthest from Oromo in Ethiopian politics. The Somali and Afar have been always furthest from Oromo, even though both are geographically closest to Oromo region. This will create another division with in Oromo and also between Oromo and Amhara. The Amhara may not oppose these 2 regions, since the Amhara have least influence on these 2 regions, but do not want to make them opponents either. The Amhara are suspicious that the Somali one day is going to go his separate way, but at the moment the Amhara have least influence on the Somali and do not want to be seen as against the Somali. The Amhara would rather accept the fact that its only the Afar and Tigray mainly and to some extent the Southern that can influence the Somali. The advantage of doing so for the Somali of joining is, the Somali can directly influence Ethiopia and directly be part of any decisions that affects him. His profile in Ethiopia also would increase tremendeously. The downside is the Somali shares the responsibility of bad, good or ugly Ethiopia does. The Somali also shares his autonomy more than currently does through federal system.
  15. cadnaani1, Thank you for the info. I am in principle opposed to any infrastructure being either private and or if private the state being too weak to regulate it. America or Canada had private telephone companies (AT@T and Bell respectively), but were regulated including how much they can charge for a home phone. When Meles was told to privatise Mobile phones by America, his answer was "Mobile phones are money printing press, which we are too poor to give away to private individuals". Yes telephone service will expand faster when private, but leaves a lot behind and the money will go away outside Somalia faster than when public. Since Somalia now is too weak to strictly regulate these companies, she is better sticking to the international cable which is only used by states and not individual companies.
  16. galbeedi, There is no need for me to try to give bad name to Jawar. He does that by himself. He is bad already. QERO means Al-Shabab hard to believe but fact. I am not sure who is the "genious" that came up with this, but its now a fact no incredibility can change. This did not come from Somali, South Ethiopia or Amhara diaspora, but the Oromo themselves.
  17. Religion as much as its powerful will not help in forming alliances. The last thing in the world TPLF would use is religion, that has been proven when the Tigray are up or down. By the time the Somali and Tigray have opposite interests, Ethiopia no more. I am talking of interest of survival, interest of development, interest of continuity not interest of politicians and organizations that come and go. The Somali also will not use religion for alliances.
  18. A decade of no peace no war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has changed the facts on the ground that you are assuming. A small border closure from Sudan the next day shook Eritrea. Eritrea now has to think of the well being of Ethiopia more than anything else as unplatable as it may sound. If what you are thinking happens Eritrea will be the first to go, both by Sudan and Ethiopia. The Eritreans know this and are acting accordingly regardless what you see in the internet. Egypt is also incapable of doing half of what you think they can do. Have you ever considered the Saudis want drinking water from Ethiopia same as Djibouti has done? Israel is offering its services to help Ethiopia and Egypt negotiate. To pre-empt this the Egyptians are calling for World Bank and not Israel. The Sudanese and Ethiopians are saying, just the 3 of us, no body else. Its more complicated and it could not have happened at worst time for Egypt and Eritrea.
  19. galbeedi, I hope you are right and the skirmishes die sooner. It does not benefit either communities, except those competeing for power in Ethiopia. Yes. I agree Ethiopia's problems are rooted in its formation. I think the conflict between Somali and Oromo is similar to that of Amhara and Tigray, except the Amhara and Tigray have the Agew between them from Afar area all the way to Sudan. The Hareri is too small of an area to affect between Somali and Oromo. The Hareri also has some influence in Dirdawa. It may not be to your liking, since the Hareri is just another small Tigray in the area.
  20. galbeedi, The destination of all this conflict will be Dirdawa. Now its a federal city/region into itself, not because its too big for a region, but the Somali/Oromo pull push. The Hareri is arbiter. The Somali who is being portrayed as hegemonic, early on is for a long strategy. Oromo special interest in Addis the other federal city is now a legislation/bill under debate in parliament. What would be next? In politics your opponent accuses or blames of some thing your opponent is currently doing or is about to do. Why Oromo diaspora is persistently trying to show the Somali is agressor, the Somali has special police force...all this campaign has an objective that is hidden now.
  21. Suldaanka, Not only parallel, its exactly same problem. People of any race or creed survived all the past on some kind of institution. For Somalis the clan institution was the means of survival. When the clan became to big to manage then sub-clan became next institution. Kinship the most important. If we separate a village or two from kinship following colonial borders, we are only following the colonialists for a never ending conflict. I know its opening a new can trying to negotiate borders, but there is always exceptions. What if the threat Puntland faces from terror and neighboring regions is gone tomorrow and Puntland starts settling scores, do you think you will have the same logic then. Wealth and force are always temporary. It only took starving Ethiopia 2 years to put its house in order and not only kick out Eritrea, but force Eritrea to call Clinton at 2:00AM to beg him to tell the Ethiopians to stop. Never threat any thing that outlasts empires, like blood kinship. The problems as I see them are same. From what I heard the Irob have 1 town and 3 villages that are in Eritrea, according map and they did not rest. Even though the Irob are only about 70,000, but very influential in Tigray, and even in Addis Ababa. The one or two villages that you might consider small this time can affect the rest of your plans.
  22. Or the fate of Meles Zenawi But that is something the Ethiopians are prepared to pay. Egypt has only two options that are both almost impossible at this time: 1. Occupy Ethiopia 2. Forget Colonial treaty and negotiate as independent country invest in Ethiopia, Respect the Sudanese show regret for past cruelty done on Sudan to keep them down
  23. Success has lot of Fathers, but Failure is an orphan. All Oromo organizations that were claiming leadership of the QERO (Shebab in Arabic) are now distancing themselves. Forgetting that what they wrote in their web sites and facebook pages a month ago, about massacres of innocent civilians will be used in courts in Ethiopia. Its so sad knowing full well that the OLF is a terrorist organization (Ethiopian parliament), the QERO was flying OLF flag in their demostrations. Forgetting video recordings work for all. Declaring now that the diaspora OLF was not claiming leadership (wrongly assuming they will succeed and all will be forgotten).
  24. JAWAR MOHAMED AND HIS QEERROO GOONIES WERE BEHIND THE DARU LEBU MASSACRE AND HERE IS THEM ADMITTING JAWAR MOHAMED AND HIS QEERROO GOONIES WERE BEHIND THE DARU LEBU MASSACRE AND HERE IS THEM ADMITTING JAWAR MOHAMED AND HIS QEERROO GOONIES WERE BEHIND THE DARU LEBU MASSACRE AND HERE IS THEM ADMITTING ‘Today, we the Qeerroo [a clandestine group that is getting increasingly active in Oromia and undertaking local gov’t structures] of Habroo and Daaloo districts as well as the City Administration of Galamsee headed and gathered at Hunde Dhaba Kebele of Darku district to show our support and solidarity to the families of the men [armed militia] who were selected from different districts. We also wanted to have a word with the large armed men that are headed to Daru Lebu [disrict] to defeat their enemy [in this context all Somalis in Western Hararghe Zone (WHZ) and assure them that we will take care of their families [in case they die in the midst of this mission to massacre Somalis in Daru Lebu of WHZ]. So, the ‘Qeerroo’ [ originally started in East Hararghe and means ‘youth’ or ‘Shabab’ in Arabic] and their elders pledged those who are leaving for battle [a month later a massacres have happened in Gadullo of Daru Lebu district and other localities] that they will take care of their families and gave them Br. 2490 worth of financial support. Note by Jawar on the message: ‘These Qeerrroo are the ones who send me this and they deserve to be emulated. They also asked me to share this message on Facebook.’ So, if anyone has a sliver of doubt that Jawar Mohamed and those so-called activists are vanning the flames of ethnic tensions in Ethiopia, here your answer.
  25. Holac, The best thing to do to really understand this issue is to have a chat with someone that has knowledge of what happened during the border delimiting between Oromo and Somali during 1990s conferences and constitutions. Since on the Somali side everyone was united and had same view, you can ask anyone that was member of WSLF, SDL, ONLF (Name is later but personalities are same they were all participants) etc. OLF and ONLF though both armed opposition to current government in Ethiopia do not see eye to eye on this issue. It is not helpful to write the details here.