Norway oil interests push Kenya into Somalia proxy war

[xiinfaniin]

Like in Libya, the scramble for Somalia is for its natural resources - for the WEST!

 

Norway oil interests push Kenya into Somalia proxy war (WaGoshaNews)

When the British couple, Paul and Rachel Chandler was kidnapped and held for one year by Somali pirates, the UK government did not use tanks and military jets to hunt for the abductors.But the case is different in Kenya, where few days after the abduction of foreign tourists and aid workers, the country crossed the border into Somalia, claiming it was chasing the Al-Shabab militants, whom it said were behind the kidnapping. Al-Shabab, a desperate Islamic militants, who felt the heat in the capital, Mogadishu denied taking part in the abductions of the foreigners in Kenya, although Kenya it self has no proof to show that it was Al-Shabab that had actually captured the foreigners. For the last two months Somali gunmen from both sides of the border have been operating freely in the area, killing innocent refugees, raping and wounding some others. Kenyan officials are aware of this and were reluctant to take any action.

Kenyan military incursion against Al-Shabab

 

Reliable sources in Kenya and Somali governments confirm that Kenya has been pushed by Norway, which has long time dream of the war-torn country’s oil resources. A Kenyan official who declined to be named told Wagoshanews that Nairobi authorities received millions of dollars from the Norwegian government to attack southern Somalia in the pretext of fighting against Al-Shabab. “The Norwegian was angry with Somali parliament’s recent decision of rejecting a plan aimed at changing Somalia’s sea boundaries that could allow Norway to drill free of charge oil from the region”, added the official. Since 2006 Norway has been making efforts to find an opportunity of drilling Somalia oil, but according to Somali politicians, Norwegians have been looking for dodgy deals that will give them rights to benefit from Somalia resources.

 

Norway attempts to trap Somali leaders on oil resources

 

In 2007, Norwegian officials were playing tricky diplomatic game on Somalia crisis. Diplomats used to issue comments on how best the country’s crisis could be resolved, sometimes using sympathy words to Islamic Courts leaders in Eritrea. Norway also attempted to talk to some Somali cabinet members to ensure that it’s given rights to Somalia’s oil reserves.

During this time Norway had also been working on how to change Somalia’s sea boundaries after some negative signs emerged from its efforts to loot Horn of African oil reserves.

 

Norway attempts on how to use UN to get Somalia oil

 

Norway had contacted with the UN regarding the Somalia sea boundaries in order to make some changes that will enable her to achieve its hidden agenda. The UN asked Norway to work with UN office on Somalia affairs and Somalia leaders on how to succeed in this issue.The former UN envoy to Somalia, Ahmad Ould Abdallah backed Norwegian bid and signed papers to ensure that the boundaries change are made according to Norwegian needs.But again the UN needed a signature of the Somali leaders to back the Norwegian bid, and it was Shaykh Sharif Shaykh Ahmad, the Somali interim president, who signed the Norwegian bid in Turkey, when officials from Norway approached him and convinced him to sign. [N.B.: Such signatures of the TFG, however,are legally not even worth the paper on which they are written. But, as could be observed in Libya, it seems not to be important any more if international and national laws are bent or broken - as long as the Western robber barons get the profits to cover their artificial debt-holes into which now the whole global economy could fall.] It’s not clear how Norway had succeeded to convince Mr Ould Abdallah and President Sharif, but sources within Somali and Kenyan governments say huge amount, possible millions of dollars were paid to secure the deal.

 

Norway, Somalia oil cooperation during Siyad Barre rule

 

A Somali minister who declined to be named said Norway tried producing oil in Somalia after successful; oil discovery in North Eastern part of the country (known as Puntland) and southern Somalia between Barawe to Jubba regions in southern Somalia.

But some western countries that had more influence than Norway stopped the plan.

President Siyad Barre was for the plan, but it was difficult to implement it without the consent of the powerful Western countries.

Kenyan ministers, buffer zone affair. As Kenyan military incursion continues in southern Jubba regions, Norway is said to be using some individuals in Kenyan cabinet to persuade the Somali government to support the idea of creating a buffer zone in Jubbaland region.

Norway believes the creation of Jubbaland administration will facilitate its conspiracy of stealing Somalia reso urces.

Reports say the recent visit of Kenyan ministers to Mogadishu was to put more pressure on President Shaykh Sharif Shaykh Ahmad, who opposes the so-called Azania state backed by Kenyan government. The ultimate goal of Norway is to use the rule Jubbaland and loot its resources through Kenyan government, specially the suspected corrupt ministers who are in the fore front of this ill advised project.

 

[N.B.: Since Canadian Charles Petrie, the former right-hand-man of exUN-envoy for Somalia Ould Abdallah, quit his UN career and became an obviously even better paid consultant to the Norwegian government to foster their interests and deals concerning Somalia, several civil society organizations have demanded that - like it is now in place for EU officials - a many year ban is imposed also on UN employees, during which they have to abstain from playing lobbyists or consultants on the payroll of member governments or private corporations and companies, whose affairs they had to regulate in their former positions.]

[xiinfaniin]

The illegal Kenyan invasion of Somalia crystallizes IGAD/EAC Political Initiative

 

 

The ongoing illegal Kenyan military invasion of Somalia, which has left experts on East Africa region with many questions about motive, timing and objectives, crystallizes the Regional Political Initiative (RPI) of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development and East African Community (IGAD/EAC) on Somalia. Important members of IGAD/EAC are Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Rwanda.

 

In the past, the UN Security Council has turned down several times the request for no fly zone and naval blockade on South Central area controlled by the militant Al Shabab. It has also resisted the approval of an additional 11,000 AMISOM forces. The Kenyan action contravenes the UN and African Union Charters and infringes the sovereignty of Somalia. It definitely undercuts the case for no fly zone and naval blockade.

 

The Kampala Accord (KA) and the Communiqué of the meeting of the International Contact Group held in Denmark on September 29, 2011, both have made reference to a Regional Political Initiative (RPI). Details of the RPI are scant. The only plausible goal of the RPI could be to keep Somalia’s political dispensation under the control of IGAD/EAC and to force the international community to foot the bill.

 

Article 4 (n) of KA says:

 

The Heads of state of the region (IGAD and EAC) shall constitute a political bureau with participation UN (UNPOS) and the AU similar to Burundi Regional Peace Initiative. The Bureau shall oversee and monitor compliance of the TFIs with agreed benchmarks and the timelines to implement the transitional tasks and to advance the Somali peace.

 

Article 3 of the KA say:

 

All Parties [President and Speaker] ……..Cognisant of the concerns of the troop contributing countries not to squander significant military progress and the readiness by the Regional Heads of States (IGAD and EAC with the participation of United Nations (UNPOS) and the African Union) to oversee and monitor and guide any agreement by the Transitional Federal Institutions on bringing to an end the phase on 20 August, 2011 and thereafter bringing in a new dispensation.

 

Point 8 of the Communiqué of the 18th Extra-ordinary session of the IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government reads as follows:

 

[iGAD] Reiterates its earlier decision on the centrality of the role of IGAD and reaffirms that the Somalia process must be anchored in IGAD and calls on all actors working towards peace in Somalia to do so in consultation and concurrence with IGAD.

 

Somalia, a failed state listed as a front of Islamic threat, serves the leaders of IGAD/EAC as an insurance coverage for their political abuses and corruption in their own countries and as a cash caw to receive special privileges and massive financial, military, and diplomatic assistance from the US Administration and European countries. President Sheikh Sharif, Speaker Sharif Hassan and Prime Minister Prof. Abdiweli M. Ali of K-TFG have failed to explain to the Somali public and parliament the story behind the RPI.

 

The clashes between Somali factions along the Somali Kenyan border and the recent spate of kidnapping of foreigners from inside Kenya have disturbed the security and economic situation of Kenya but they were not sufficient to justify a military invasion of Somalia. The old rivalry and mistrust between Somalia and Kenya, the catastrophic famine and drought ravaged Somalia, the Kenyan campaign to change the existing maritime border, the decline of Al Shabab power, the beginning of the rainy season and the incalculable human and economic costs as well as the political and legal problems associated with military operation against a neighbor country were factors necessary to be considered against the Kenyan invasion of Somalia.

 

The Kenyan government changed several times the justification and explanation of the legality and its intended aims for sending its military inside Somalia. First, Kenya invocated article 51 of the UN Charter as self defense from foreign armed attacks. Then, it argued that it invaded Somalia on the invitation of the K-TFG. Finally, it claimed the blessing and support of IGAD/EAC and African Union. The declared aim of the Kenyan Government is to capture Kismaio and stay in Somalia until there were no Islamic insurgents left.

 

On October 18, a Kenyan delegation composed of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense travelled to Mogadishu to issue with K-TFG a lopsided joint communiqué that supported the Kenyan invasion under the excuse of ‘common enemy.’ Apart from the communiqué, K-TFG leaders remained in denial, silent or vague about the Kenyan invasion. The K-TFG President and the Minister of defense left the country for a private visit to Turkey in the face of the international political flare up on the Kenyan invasion of Somalia. The Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP) avoided to debate on the joint communiqué and its consequences because for the livelihood of the parliamentarians Nairobi and Kenya are more important than Mogadishu and Somalia.

 

Back from the Mogadishu trip with the joint communiqué in hand, the Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetengula headed to Addis Ababa for consultation on the next move. Kenya and Ethiopia agreed to hold an extra ordinary meeting of IGAD Council of Ministers on October 21, 2011. Before IGAD’s meeting, President Muwai Kibaki held Cabinet meeting on the issue and later briefed the media and Parliament on the ongoing military operation against Somalia. Kenyan opposition parties expressed their strong objection to the Kenyan military adventure dubbed “Operation Protect Nation” and decried it as illegal and imprudent.

 

Since 2009, Kenya pursued aggressive intervention policy towards Somalia. For the preparation of military action, Kenya received helicopter gunships from USA and large infantry equipments from China. The former Minister of defense of D-TFG Prof Mohamed Gandi reached a personal understanding with Kenyan officials for the recruiting, training and arming of 2,000 forces selected from specific clans of Jubba regions (Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba and Gedo) for the establishment of Jubbaland State later renamed Azania State. Donors covered the costs of those forces. President Sheikh Sharif, former Prime Ministers Omar Abdirashid and Mohamed Abdullahi Formajo opposed the deployment of those forces in Jubba regions and asked their relocation in Mogadishu, a request summarily and angrily rebuffed by the leaders of Azania State.

 

Besides, two other events may have changed the political calculation of IGAD/EAC and precipitated the Kenyan invasion of Somalia. First, the high profile visit of Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayyib Erdoĝan to Mogadishu with more than 300 million dollars of aid and the large pledge of 500 million dollars made in Istanbul by the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) have revived the historical alliance between Turkish and Somalis. The second event is a process of reconciliation among Somali Islamists secretly initiated by the government of Qatar. The Foreign Ministry of Ethiopia reported that the suicide attack of Al Shabab in Mogadishu on October 4 has faltered the Qatar’s efforts.

 

A glance at the joint communiqué that was concluded with K-TFG President but signed by the Minister of defense, one discovers the degree it degrades K-TFG and its leaders. Point six of the communiqué says, “The President is committed to the implementation of KA.” Since KA brings K-TFG under the RPI, point six preempts the President’s deviation from the will of Kenya. The communiqué permits the Kenyan forces to operate indefinitely into Somali territory without accountability. After ousting Al Shabab from Kismaio, Kenya will control the political process of Jubba and Gedo regions and will make the proposal on the partition of Somalia a fait accompli.

 

Four Somali forces or Militias are fighting on the side of Kenya. They are Raskambooni militia, Azania militia, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama militia, and forces under K-TFG flag. One can expect that the Kenyan invasion of Somalia will create new conditions and pretenses on the ground. Nationalists, clan and Islamist forces will emerge in the regional theatre.

 

Somalia will not overcome the current fragmentation and anarchy under the Regional Political Initiative of IGAD/EAC. Somali Citizens should resist foreign designs. They should claim the ownership of their country and build their common future based on their culture and aspirations.

[xiinfaniin]

Why Somali President wants Kenya army out

 

 

Friday, October 28, 2011

 

 

 

 

Somali President Shariff Sheikh Ahmed is opposed to the deployment of Kenyan troops in his country because he believes it is an attempt by Kenya to create an autonomous Jubaland. Communication from as far back as March 2011 between President Shariff and President Kibaki shows that the Somali leader asked Kenya not to deploy to Juba region an estimated 2,500 young Somali soldiers who had been trained and equipped in Kenya.

 

President Shariff was worried that the youth, if deployed in the Juba region, would help former Somali Defence minister Mohamed Ghandi whom Mogadishu suspects is attempting to create a separate state for himself between Kenya and the Juba River. President Shariff on Monday issued a statement saying Kenyan troops were not welcome in Somalia. He said Kenya had gone against the original agreement of providing logistical support when it sent in soldiers to pursue the Al Shabaab militia group.

 

His statements were however criticised by several Somali leaders including the military spokesman and ordinary citizens who said they welcomed Kenya's help to tame the al-Shabaab. Yesterday, President Shariff and his Prime Minister Abdiweli issued a statement denying that there was any agreement between the two governments for the intervention of Kenyan military in Somalia.

 

They said they were opposed to Kenya's intervention but conceded that the two countries had a common interest to fight against the militia group. "The government will not break its decision on this issue., Wew have asked Kenya to assist the Somalia fovernment in training and supporting the Somali a army buy not to intervene in Somalia,” President Sharif said at the joint press conference he and his PM addressed after a closed door meeting.

 

“We do not have agreement with Kenya. We understood that we need to defend against the militants but there is no proof saying that we agreed with Kenya," PM Abdiweli said. Somalia’s pro-government militias of Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamma and Ras Kamboni have supported Kenya’s intervention and criticized the TFG president for opposing the presence of the Kenyan military.

 

Internal Security minister George Saitoti yesterday wrote to the Somali government demanding an explanation on President Shariff's remarks as well as conflicting media media reports about the Somali government’s position on the ongoing military co-operation. "In the light of this the Kenya Government is seeking clarification of the Somali government’s position as it is essential to have a unified approach in dealing with the destabilization of Somalia by Al Shabaab and its threats to peace and security to Kenya and the region," Saitoti's letter read. "In the meantime Kenya with collaboration with IGAD and AU, is continuing with the operation against Al Shabaab."

 

While Kenya wanted the soldiers it had trained to form a buffer between Kenya and the Al Shabaab-controlled regions around Mogadishu, the Somalia Transitional Government wanted them sent to Mogadishu to fight Islamist militia. Ethiopia too has objected to the creation of Jubaland mainly inhabited by the ****** and Merehan clans. Addis Ababa feels that would encourage separatist passion in the ****** Region of Ethiopia.

 

The decision by the Kenya government to recruit mainly from the ****** resulted in complaints from other clans. The ****** clan primarily lives in the Central ****** plateau of Ethiopia, the North-Eastern Province of Kenya, and the Jubaland region of Southern Somalia. They also inhabit Somalia's major cities such as Mogadishu and Kismayo. The ******* mostly live in Jubaland, Gedo and Lower Juba regions in Southwest Somalia and in Northeast Kenya. They are considered the most fierce nationalists among the Somali people and have always played key roles in both the Somali uprisings.

 

In a letter dated March 21 and addressed to President Kibaki, the Somali President acknowledges the role Kenya has played in training and equipping the army of youths. "Excellency we are particularly indebted for the training and equipping our forces in Kenya. We pray that a peaceful Somali and region will enjoy Strengthened friendship and prosperity," states President Shariff. The letter was handed to President Kibaki in Nairobi by Somali Prime Minister Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke.

 

Due to suspicions against his former Defence minister Ghandi, President Shariff in the letter to President Kibaki transferred the responsibility of the coordination of the youth recruits from Ghandi to then Defense Minister Abdullah Boss. "I write to you this letter to inform you that the bilateral security responsibilities including the coordination and follow up of Somali force training in Kenya that we previously assigned to our former Minister of Defense and current Minister for Air and Land Transportation HE Mohamed Abdi Gandi is hereby transferred to our current Ministry of Defense," the letter says.

 

The Somali President further transferred the responsibility of regional administrators trained in Kenya to the current Interior minister of Somalia, Abdirashid Mohamed Hidig. "There are people who are unhappy of the training that you have provided for our forces and the regional administration and wish to deny this region and Somalia any peace and stability. We wish to correct this situation administratively by bringing the military force under the department of Defense and the regional administration under the ministry of interior," stated the Somali President.

 

In late March 2011, Gandi hosted elders from the Marehaan and ****** - who are the main clans in Gedo and Juba regions of Somalia - at Chester House in Nairobi to discuss the stalemate in the deployment process. In the meeting Gandi discussed with the clan elders a possible withdrawal of support to the government.

 

Meanwhile, thousands of Somalis at the Dadaab,Ifo and Hagadera refugee camps yesterday held a peaceful demonstration against President Shariff and to voice their support for the military operation. Hagadera camp Chairman Kussow Abdi Nuni said they supported the intervention as frequent incursions into Kenya by Somali militiamen had negatively affected their peaceful stay in the country.

 

He said Shariff’s sentiments were out of touch with the reality on the ground as al-Shabaab had carried out frequent raids forcing humanitarian organisations working in the camps to scaled down or stop their operations altogether putting the lives of thousands of Somali refugees in jeopardy. “As the refugee community we have to be grateful to Kenya for giving us a safe haven for more than two decades. We condemn insecurity and that is why we support the Kenyan opearion in Somalia”, said Kussow.

 

Source: The Star

[xiinfaniin]

Kenya’s Somali mission causes a devastating blowback at home

 

 

Friday, October 28, 2011

 

For 20 years, Somalia has been a deadly quagmire for foreign troops: American, Ethiopian, even Canadian. Now another country, Kenya, is learning the risks of sending soldiers into one of the world’s most dangerous and war-torn states.

 

Less than two weeks after ordering hundreds of its troops across the Somali border in a bold military offensive, Kenya is already seeing a rising toll in collateral damage. Three grenade attacks inside Kenya, including one on Thursday, have killed five civilians and injured scores more in suspected retaliatory attacks by Somali militants and their allies

 

The grenade attacks will inflict severe damage on Kenya’s tourism industry, a key sector of the economy. Foreign embassies have issued warnings to travellers to stay away from the East African country, and hotels in Nairobi are already seeing cancellations. The kidnapping of four Western aid workers and tourists by Somali gunmen in Kenya has further damaged the tourism industry.

 

The Kenyan invasion is also hampering refugee movements and aid deliveries by the international famine relief effort, which is trying to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in southern and central Somalia, where up to 80,000 people have already died. The number of Somali refugees reaching Kenya has plunged dramatically, from an average of about 1,000 daily last month to just 100 a day this week.

 

“Escalating fighting across the south of Somalia is making it even more difficult for our partners to safely deliver life-saving support to children and their families,” said Elhadj As Sy, a senior official of Unicef, the United Nations fund for children.

 

As for the military offensive itself, it has become bogged down in heavy rains and mud in southern Somalia, with few gains except empty desert so far. Despite logistical support from France and its own tanks and warplanes, Kenya’s troops have still not captured their first key target, the strategic town of Afmadow, 100 kilometres from the Kenyan border, where the Somali militant group al-Shabab is preparing its defences.

 

The Kenyan forces clashed with al-Shabab fighters on Thursday for the first time. Kenya said it killed nine al-Shabab insurgents and suffered two injuries on its own side.

 

“The history of recent foreign military interventions in Somalia is universally bad,” said Roger Middleton, an Africa analyst at the Chatham House think tank in London. “Foreign troops entering Somalia have often left behind a situation that is worse than the one they sought to improve.”

 

The United States withdrew its forces from Somalia in 1994 after the notorious Black Hawk Down battle, where 18 of its soldiers were killed in the bloodiest U.S. combat loss since Vietnam. Canada pulled its troops out of Somalia after revelations that some of its soldiers had participated in the torture and beating death of a Somali civilian.

 

In 2006, Ethiopia sent thousands of its troops into Somalia, but failed to pacify the country. Instead the invasion strengthened the influence of the Islamist radicals of al-Shabab, who gained control of southern Somalia and Mogadishu after the Ethiopians pulled out.

 

The Islamist militants, who have links to al-Qaeda, had vowed to take revenge in Kenya after Kenya launched its invasion. Last week, the U.S. government warned of “an imminent threat of terrorist attacks” at malls and nightclubs in Kenya. And then the grenade attacks began.

 

On Monday, one person was killed and scores were injured in two grenade attacks at a bus stop and a bar in Nairobi. Two days later, a Kenyan man pleaded guilty to one of the attacks and identified himself as a member of al-Shabab. The attacks show how the Somalia conflict is spilling across borders and mutating into hit-and-run terrorist tactics.

 

On Thursday, in the latest attack, heavily armed gunmen in northern Kenya ambushed a civilian vehicle with rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns, killing four people, including a school teacher and a government official. Al-Shabab militants were again the suspected culprits.

 

One of al-Shabab’s senior leaders, Sheik Muktar Robow, said on Thursday that he is telling militants in Kenya to launch bombing attacks. “A hand grenade is nothing,” he told hundreds of Shabab supporters in a rally near Mogadishu. “We want you to carry out big painful blows to Kenya.”

 

Last week, al-Shabab publicly displayed the bodies of dozens of soldiers that it claimed to have killed in Mogadishu, including many Burundians from an African Union peacekeeping mission. In an attempt to portray the conflict as a religious war, they displayed Bibles and crucifixes from the Burundian soldiers.

[xiinfaniin]

Kenya simply can't afford to go to war with Somalia right now

 

The Guardian home

Friday, October 28, 2011

 

Kenya has a right to defend its people and its visitors, but will it be able to deal with the consequences?

 

The word "war" is one that Kenyans go to great lengths to avoid invoking. Ethnic clashes, post-election violence, cross-border raids, security operations – these are all things that the average Kenyan is broadly familiar with – but war is something that other countries do.

 

Such an open display of aggression and hostility runs counter to the euphemistic and allegedly peaceful instinct of our national culture. So the news that the Kenyan army was going into Somalia in pursuit of al-Shabaab following the kidnapping and death of Marie Dedieu, our first out-and-out war since independence, has caused surprise and significant concern.

 

It's not that Kenya and Somalia do not have a shared history of violence. Dedieu's death was, unfortunately, the latest in a long line of hostage-takings that al-Shabaab and other Somali groups have committed in Kenya. Each episode is a harsh indictment of our security forces and their apparent inability to protect our people and our most valuable industry: tourism. The concern is that the belated response from the security forces to these events is more often than not ham-fisted, brutal and generally perpetrated against Kenya's own significant Somali population rather than any member of al-Shabaab or other militia groups. It's hard to rage freely against the crime without some trepidation, as most of us fear the brutal "security operations" that the government implements in north-eastern Kenya, and the news of European and North American involvement in the shadow of Libya only makes it harder to process.

 

The north-eastern area of Kenya is a tough region, and has been problematic for Nairobi since before independence. It forms part of the "homeland" of "Greater Somalia", which in the colonial era was split between Abyssinian (modern-day Ethiopian), British and Italian spheres of influence. The theoretical agreements between these governments quickly proved practically unenforceable, even though they were enough to disrupt the traditional transhumance of communities in the region.

 

Absurd borders along fictional geographical lines (of latitude and longitude) were the basis of competing imperial interests in a region that offered very little economic benefit for these powers – the perfect mix for fights about nothing to drag on endlessly. Overall, the three entities spent a great deal of time and money trying to prove that the Somali people living beyond their borders were foreigners, in order to justify excluding them from trans-border grazing areas, while the Somali people tried to sustain their traditional way of life and keep the sense of broader community alive.

 

These half-hearted attempts at creating some kind of order sowed the seeds for some of the mistrust of governmental action in the region today. The Somali people were never included in the decision-making process and continued to view all three powers with suspicion. Today, considering the rag-tag nature of the al-Shabaab militia, it is unlikely that the Kenyan military will be able to adequately distinguish civilians from combatants, Kenyans from Somalis. No one denies that Kenya has a right to defend its people, but there is some concern for the security of civilians in the region, who continue to bear the brunt of internal brutality and external apathy.

 

Just before independence, an irredentist movement tried to unite Greater Somalia and the response from Nairobi and Addis was typically violent but ineffective. The governments often supported various clans in their incursions across the new boundaries to try to gain political favour, further blurring the lines between historical, political and economic tensions. At independence, the pattern continued more or less unchecked. The independent government in Kenya promised to support the secession of the north-eastern territory, but quickly reneged on the deal, fuelling the so-called Shifta rebellion, which continued as a low-intensity conflict for the better part of the last five decades.

 

As it stands, Kenya cannot afford to go to war right now. Aside from internal structural problems and the open question of next year's general election, the struggling dollar has contaminated the economy further as the woes of our biggest trading partners bleed into our own problems. With a bloated government, which was put into power in part to keep the peace and which will continue to grow as constitutional changes create a more federal system, government expenditure has never been higher or, arguably, less productive. All of this comes in the shadow of a slow response to what experts are calling the worst drought in the region in 60 years. (As one Kenyan noted on Twitter, it seems that in Africa they always have money for war but never enough for food.)

 

Even so, the changing circumstances of al-Shabaab's increasing aggression and apparent lack of central command have led to unspeakable violence against Somali and international civilians, and is a question that demands a robust answer. The troubling issue is whether the Kenyan government, even (or especially?) with French support, is in a position to manage the inevitable fallout.

[Dabrow]

I strongly oppose any kind of "incursion" or invasion as it is in Somali soil, whereever in Juba, mogadishu, or north Somalia.

I believe we can solve our problem once "outsiders" stops interfering, Kenya will not bring peace and prosperity to Somalia

Kenya will do whats is its their interest ofc and we should do whats in Somalis interest, and thats a BIG no to invasions.

Somalia has suffered to long and I believe this invasion and oil hunt will only prolong the suffering of Somalis,

[omar12]

xiinfaniin, conspiracy stories will get you no where. Your arguments don't fallow any rational or logical pattern.

 

When the British couple, Paul and Rachel Chandler was kidnapped and held for one year by Somali pirates, the UK government did not use tanks and military jets to hunt for the abductor

What kind of argument is that, clearly Kenya which is a bordering nation has much more of a reason to go in, then the UK which is thousands of miles away.

[xiinfaniin]

I understand your argument for invasion. I don't understand your motivation to attack xiin. Enjoy reading what is posted and appreciate the facility of SOL adeer. It is another perspective of Kenya's invasion in southern Somalia.

[General Duke]

^^^nicely put.

[Mintid Farayar]

Xiin's argument should not be so easily repudiated, regardless of what one might feel about the individual.

 

I've spent the last few years working in the East African region.

I would like to add a small anecdote to some of the observations about the region (East Africa). Many have commented about the real estate boom in the 'middle-market', much of it attributed to the booming Somali business community.

 

However, there's an even bigger boom in the high-end real estate market in such capitals as Nairobi, Dar es Salaam, and Kampala. Historically these areas were inhabited by the diplomatic (particularly Western) community. However, recently, it's getting pricey even for the Embassies themselves. One might ask who's spending more than the Embassies? Well, just like in the West, it's corporate entities - in particular banking, telecom, and 'Resource Extraction' companies. The 'resource extraction' companies are currently the ones playing with the most cash when it comes to these real estate transactions. Many villas in these capitals with decrepit infrastructure fetch higher rental and sale prices than homes in the major Western cities.

 

The 'resource' wars of Africa have finally reached East Africa...

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Very interesting stuff ya Xiin.

[Yunis]

Odaygii Xiin waa ka xanaajiyeen...

[xiinfaniin]

 

 

US ambassador to Kenya Scott Gration. The United States has denied involvement in the ongoing operation against Somalia's Al-Shabaab terror group October 28, 2011.

By LUCAS BARASA

Posted Friday, October 28 2011 at 13:31

 

The United States has denied involvement in the ongoing operation against Somalia's Al-Shabaab terror group.

 

US ambassador to Kenya Major General (rtd) Scott Gration said Friday his country was only assisting Kenya in ensuring internal stability.

 

“We don’t have military operation outside the border of Kenya,” the envoy said during a news conference at the Department of Defence headquarters.

 

Mr Gration who once served as an instructor at Kenya Airforce denied reports that the US was assisting Kenya in the operation against Al-Shabaab.

 

“We have been providing our assistance in an overt way through the Kenya Navy, Army and Air Force for long time and we will continue. We are not in Somalia. Our support is through equipment,” the ambassador said.

 

He said the US was ready to give Kenya more equipment if it wants.

 

The envoy who was accompanied by Defence minister Yusuf Haji and Chief of the Defence Forces Julius Karangi said the US enjoys good relationship with Kenya.

 

Mr Haji said Kenya is yet to get official communication from Somalia’s President on why he did not want Kenyan forces to fight Al-Shabaab in the country. “We hope we will get the information by Monday,” Mr Haji said.

[xiinfaniin]

 

Kenya has no intention of occupying Somalia under the guise of fighting terrorism.

 

Internal Security minister George Saitoti Friday said that the government was only determined to secure its borders but not annex Somalia.

 

“We have never nursed territorial ambitions to annex Somalia or take their land. The Kenya Government is simply standing its mandate to defend the country and its people,” he said.

 

His sentiments were echoed by President Kibaki who said the decision to carry out military action against the Al-Shabaab was in response to escalating insecurity and violation of Kenya’s territorial integrity.

 

Addressing the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) at Perth, Australia the President stated that Kenya is not at war with Somalia but is carrying out action against the Islamic militia which is a non-state actor and perpetrating blatant attacks, abductions and killings of innocent civilians.

 

He said the country had no intention of keeping troops in Somalia longer than is necessary, but will undertake the mission established under the operation to protect its territory.

 

President Kibaki informed the session, chaired by the Prime Minister of Australia Julia Gillard, that the country’s current mission in Somalia is meant to deal with the continued threat posed by Al-Shabaab to Kenya’s national security and economic interests.

 

“Our mission in Somalia is therefore, based on a legitimate right to protect Kenya’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

 

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Kenya+does+not+intend+to+annex+Somalia++says+Saitoti/-/1056/1263506/-/aiwpq2z/-/index.html

[GoldCoast]

Are Kenyans seeking a buffer zone in Somalia?

 

As Kenya's troops continue their incursion into southern Somalia in pursuit of Islamist militants, the BBC's Will Ross considers the motives behind the deployment.

 

"I hope in three or four months, al-Shabab will have been removed from our region. Then one day I'll invite you to come to Kismayo to see what's going on," said Abdullahi Shafi, personal assistant to the governor of Somalia's Lower Juba region.

 

He is hopeful that with Kenyan military help, he can soon return home to a new semi-autonomous region in southern Somalia.

 

"We have been in hell for the last 20 years. We need a new Somalia," he said, wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with "Azania" - the name of the new region which comprises Gedo, Lower Juba and Middle Juba.

 

It already has a flag - blue, white and red - a parliament, a house of elders and a president in waiting.

 

The Kenyan government says it sent troops to Somalia to fight al-Shabab, whom it blames for the recent kidnappings of tourists and aid workers.

 

"Kenya has the capacity, the ability and the will to defend its territory and its people," said Moses Wetangula, Kenya's foreign minister.

 

But analysts point out that for several years Kenya, with international support, has been pushing for Azania, traditionally known as Jubaland, to be set up.

 

Kenya has trained and equipped Somali troops, as it would like a buffer zone to shield its territory from lawless Somalia.

 

So some analysts see the kidnappings as just a convenient excuse for carrying out the plan militarily.

 

Map of Somalia's disputed areas

 

The army has been giving unverifiable reports of success across the border.

 

The Kenyan media, which have scarcely questioned the motive for going to war, have told the country about captured towns that no one has ever heard of.

 

One front page article referred to the "imminent fall of Kismayo".

 

For now, the cautious voices are being drowned out.

 

"It's not going to be easy for Kenya to stabilise and pacify that part of Somalia, much less drive out al-Shabab," said Rashid Abdi, of the International Crisis Group.

 

"I think the Kenyans are into a very long and messy intervention in Somalia."

 

Rich in oil?

 

The man who hopes to soon end his absentee presidency says the creation of Azania, in April, came about following the consultation of more than 30 clans.

 

He says he is not a separatist, but speaks of a bright future for his people in a Somalia where power is devolved from Mogadishu.

Al-Shabab's military spokesman Sheik Abdul Asis Abu Muscab Al-Shabab has threatened retaliatory attacks in Kenya

 

"Our priority will be to consolidate the peace, set up the administration and re-establish education and health systems before we move on to development and infrastructure," Somali MP Professor Mohammed Abdi Gandhi told me in Nairobi.

 

Asked where he got his last name from, he smiled and replied, "Because I'm against violence."

 

A geologist with dual French and Somali nationality, he has critics who accuse him of imposing what some call the "Gandhi plan" without being all-inclusive.

 

"They met at a hotel in Naivasha where Professor Gandhi was proclaimed the president. Everybody clapped. The constitution was produced. They all clapped again, even though they hadn't even read it," one critic told me.

 

In response, Mr Gandhi says the process has been as inclusive as possible with dozens of consultative meetings.

 

 

There are reports that Azania - or at least the sea off its coast - is rich in oil.

 

Mr Gandhi, a former Somali defence minister, has worked as a consultant for the French oil giant Total. This and this has led some to conclude that countries including France and Norway have thrown money at the Azania project.

 

"These are all rumours. Not true," he says.

 

"To my knowledge, there are no groups or companies that have come to us. When it's peaceful, then we will open the door and all the international oil companies can come to explore. Nothing is under the table."

 

Centralised power has not worked well in Somalia.

 

The war has kept the government confined to the capital Mogadishu and, more often than not, to hotels in Nairobi.

 

As Puntland and Somaliland and several other states break away, a devolved form of government is seen as better way forward, as long as it is well planned and not done through the gun alone.

 

"Ideally, Somalis should have been given the opportunity to plan for a federal state in a gradual, consensual way," says Mr Abdi.

 

"Right now, we have clans competing among themselves to carve out clan enclaves or cantons in various parts of Somalia. I don't think clan states are the way forward for Somalia."

 

Ethiopian factor

 

Somali government officials have given mixed reactions to the Kenyan incursion.

A Kenya soldier on the border with Somalia Kenyan troops are fighting alongside a Somali militia against al-Shabab

 

President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed said the government was grateful for logistical support but said the Kenyans should stay out of Somalia - a comment which drew this response from the president of Azania.

 

"Sheikh Sharif doesn't want change. To prolong his power, he wants the status quo. He wants al-Shabab to stay. He is a big obstacle to peace. He has done a lot to block our programme," Professor Gandhi told me - without ruling out the possibility of this stance leading to armed conflict between the president's and his soldiers.

 

"If he keeps the status quo, he can convince the international community that he is fighting al-Shabab. He needs more help and more time. For him, all he has in mind is to stay in power."

 

The controversial issue of foreign troops in Somalia could complicate the Kenyan mission.

 

Some analysts suggest it could even help bolster al-Shabab, which has played the nationalist card before.

 

The Kenyans are fighting alongside a militia run by Sheikh Ahmed Madobe - a man who does not see eye-to-eye with Mr Gandhi.

 

As well as this potential source of tension, there is also concern that clan rivalries could break out if the common enemy of al-Shabab is dealt with.

 

Then there is the Ethiopia factor.

 

Analysts say Addis Ababa is strongly opposed to Azania being set up.

 

The fear is Ethiopian Somalis of the ****** clan may seek support or refuge across the border in Azania which is inhabited mainly by people of the ****** clan.

 

As for Kenya, it clearly had to act to secure its border - the question is whether that should have been done without crossing the frontier or at least without going deep into Somalia's web of war.

 

"I think once the body bags come back home and the huge bill comes in at a time when the shilling is depreciating so fast, Kenyans will sober up. They will realise that this kind of foreign adventurism may have been ill advised," said Mr Abdi.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15499534