Hehe, I will be bad at it, Somali politics is not for the faint of heart.

Laftagareen is in a good position to get reelected even if HSM tries to engineer a sham election in Barawe. HMS's actions and his minion's insults united reer SW in ways that could not have been imagined. HSM will try to extend his term. He is not coming back. Roble burned too many bridges and honestly, nobody trusts a man who stabbed his boss in the back. Sharif would be the best bet. Deni and Farmaajo are other contenders, And there could always be a dark horse.

Gondar is in Fano hands. #Ethiopia : #Fano militiamen and some of their supporters marching through a #Gondar neighborhood completely unopposed. The fall of Gondar, a city of 300K-450K would the largest defeat for the government in years. https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1836149123038196064

Two things might happen this year or next year, SW admin bringing Lower Shabelle completely under their control and dissolution of the Ethiopian empire.

It seems the reason for relocating military resources to the Somali region is to grab as much as land as Abiy can for his Oromo. He has practically given up fighting in the Amhara region. The rumor he wants to bring the Somali region under Oromia jurisdiction which means they can decide how they reshape the administration.

The war is shifting north to Lebanon as pagers and walkie-talkies explode across Lebanon.

According to sources, HSM will be traveling to Baydhabo. This comes after, Taliyaha ciidanka asluubta mudane Shub, Laftagareen's father-in-,law, went to. Baydhabo.

By picking a fight with reer SW, HSM assured his political demise. No one is supporting Ethiopia, but to use this situation created by MoU for political gains is going to hurt HSM more than it would hurt Laftagareen. HSM also reignited tribal grievances and the issue of Lower Shabelle which he tried so hard to incorporate into Banadir. Like Deni, Laftgareen's mistake was doing business with HSM. In retrospect, he should have held the election and not agreed to HSM's tenure extension. Either way, Laftagareen, Madoobe, and Qoorqoor will hold their elections.

Ninkan Farmaajo waa #Marixaan shaqu ku helay, Maanta wuxuu markale leyahay haddan fasiiro haddalkiisa asago #Cabdullahi_Yusuf uu tubo racayo, lakiin #Geedi iloowsan, in wagaas Gabdhaheeyna Soomaaliyeed ee KG joogay : Lawada ureyeey , Ilmahasna Maanta yihin Itoobiyaan nagu dhex nool. Haddalkas waxaa laga raba inu ka jawaabo #Geedi oo Raisul Wasare wagas ahaa oo Xukumadaas hogaaminayeey, haddana nool oo HSM @HassanSMohamud lataliye uu ah , iney Xukumaddiisa ficilkas ku kacday. https://x.com/FrauSchwarz3/status/1836011371525177400?t=-nF-LBVnjHAWgNcxHJV-Bg&s=19

Ethiopia: TPLF revokes membership of key leaders; Getachew Reda among 16 ousted in political shake-up The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), under the leadership of Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD), has expelled 16 senior members, including former deputy chairperson Getachew Reda, following a Central Committee meeting on 15 September 2024. The decision marks a significant political shake-up within the party, which has been experiencing growing internal divisions. The TPLF’s statement alleges that the expelled members "exploited the temporary administrative powers entrusted to them" for illicit activities, including "embezzlement of substantial funds" and undermining party unity. Among those ousted are former #Mekelle University president Professor Kindeya Gebrehiwot and regional communication bureau head Redae Halefom. https://x.com/addisstandard/status/1836017902043939212?t=E4d_bk7M6Ic1e03ospqZWA&s=19

The Federal Government of #Somalia (FGS) has deployed elite troops to Barawe, the capital city of SouthWest State. Planes carrying Turkish-trained Haramcad Special Police and Gorgor Commandos arrived in the coastal city, thereby intensifying tensions between the Lafta-Gareen administration and Villa Somalia. https://x.com/GaroweOnline/status/1835708766597140826?t=KczvbBxHKvBqK4L_w2wx6g&s=19

The FGS is allegedly preventing the SWS from deploying its own military forces to Baraawe and Balidoogle. This raises serious concerns about the FG's overreach on regional autonomy. Why is the FG preventing the SWS from deploying its own military forces within its borders? https://x.com/SpotonSomalia/status/1835656673538568449?t=cJS9u1WdxmUlNhoNxjp3bw&s=19

Reports from Mogadishu say the Federal Govt detained the 9th Battalion Commander,who is based in Xudur, at Mogadishu Airport after a security meeting in Mogadishu.Efforts by Speaker Madoobe led to his release, signaling rising tensions between the Federal Govt & South West State. https://x.com/BaidoaU/status/1835670795730727015?t=6pVkggdnJzCEBApwrOXLow&s=19

Deni is macangig but Ilma Diyano are behaving like warlords.

Breaking: The city of Debark in the Amhara region has been fully captured by #Fano forces after a fierce battle today. Fighting is ongoing to control the city of Dabat. https://x.com/AmharaQuest/status/1835660043020087686?t=wNoA6VW3zph_tptSqldADQ&s=19

You know Ethiopia is done when Amhara are advocating for the dissolution of the empire "The much touted “beautification project” by #Ethiopia’s @AbiyAhmedAli . It is crumbling in less than a couple of years. Florence & Vienna are not laughing. The empire has to dissolve and smaller nations of culturally understanding people has to be born." https://x.com/WoldeYihun/status/1834559358530715747/photo/1

There are too many sources reporting this. I believe there's some truth. We will see how reer Somaligalbeed react and more importantly, what the larger Somali family learn from this. It is more clearer now Abiy is dead serious about attacking Somalia and taming those within. Somalis need to understand Amharas are not backing him up now. Any war will be seen between Oromo and Somalis even if Abiy is doing this in Ethiopia's name.

You should see how they talk on their national tv. In their mind, Seylac and now even Indian Ocean was given to them by God. The Somalis are mere inconvenience.

Sanbaloosha is even hated by his clan [Xwdle].

Aabahaa maxaa dilay LOL https://x.com/ArlaadiMnetwork/status/1834347069764472891

I wouldn't be surprised if he did. The fight will eventual on Somali public on either side of the border.