This is the fairest assessment I saw so far by a westerner.

Nobody trusts HSM. He ran to Turkey out of desperation and under public pressure.

If HSM "leased" 20 shoreline to Ethiopia, the reaction would be same. No sane or forward thinking Somali would lease their land to Abiy. Abiy committed to a deal without getting his ducks in. a row. Now his ego won't allow him to back down. If this comes down to war, the war will be fought by the Somali public. Nobody expects Turks to interfere or for HSM to mobilize the country for a war. The advantage Somalis have they will be fighting in their land or for their land. They will have unlimited access to weapons. Like 77 contributed to our downfall, invading Somalia might be their down fall.

Somalia will defend itself if Ethiopia seals 'illegal' port deal, president says Summary Ethiopia wants to set up naval base in Somaliland Somalia says breakaway region is part of its territory Mohamud: 'If Ethiopia insists, Somalia will resist' Has no plan to expel Ethiopian troops fighting militants https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-will-defend-itself-if-ethiopia-seals-illegal-port-deal-president-says-2024-02-23/

He doesn't control most of Amhara. Their insurgents which he ironically armed during the Tigray war were getting stronger every day.

If we can sniff each other out, there will be no problem finding out who's Oromo or who's not. The concern is their sense of entitlement and their leader's willingness to use violence to attain what he thinks is his destiny.

Oromo are getting more comfy by the day.

Turkey confirms Somalia maritime security deal amid Somaliland tensions Turkey confirms Somalia maritime security deal amid Somaliland tensions WWW.AL-MONITOR.COM Somalia ratified a defense cooperation agreement signed with Turkey earlier this month that would see Ankara help Mogadishu secure its maritime interests.

Abiy is serious. Whether he can accomplish his goals is another matter.

It's! Even more so as there's no political settlement on the constitution and the very nature of Somali federalism.

Quick question folks, There's a confusion. Is this defense pact an actual agreement or a framework for collaboration? The Turks haven't put out any statements yesterday or today.

If we only listened to the leaders of Hizbi Dhigil & Mirifle, each Somali region would have achieved self governance while being loyal to the state. It would have been an imperfect system but one that could be improved. SYL shut down any alternative system of governance. Biixi complicated the situation even more. SSC would rather deal with Mogadishu and Garowe instead Hargeisa.

HSM can barely hold the South together and Muse dismantled everything with his arrogance and lust for power.

They are hoping EU and US.

Interesting development . This seems coordinated.

Funnier

This made me laugh.