Under Siilanyo it was all about broader Habro community, now your saying it’s every Habro for themselves, next year it’s every Abokor, Muse and Ismail for himself. Let the clanisation continue, see where one hits bottom.

HA has 3 governors while Harti has one, Grx has 20+ MPs while Harti doesn’t even have 4 or 5, let’s be frank here.

Galbeedi, was that really a request from Habro’s? Second this whole assertion that one can be independent from eachother while hosting national infrastructure is a grave mistake, we have seen how that turned out in Mogadishu with decades of infighting and internal instability beyond the scope of a sub-clan to resolve, why do u think Somalilanders can have their cake and eat it to?

And what might that be?

Many folks don’t, and many folks do oppose this war and atrocities committed by SL from the start, even opposed and spoke out against the SL conduct in Sool long before the January uprising. But clearly it’s not always reflected in the waves of social media and neither side of the spectrum has an interest in these voices to be heard. https://www.somaliaonline.com/community/topic/246915-siyasiintii-iyo-odayaashi-beesha-sl-oo-tageersan-ssc-kasoo-horjeeda-huunada/

The worst thing is that fragmentation is not only political, but has great socio-economic impact. It’s hardly impossible to trade, transport goods and people from one region to another with each local and regional entity erecting road blocks, making trade and mobility over land almost impossible.

The worst thing is that fragmentation is not only political, but has great socio-economic impact. It’s hardly impossible to trade, transport goods and people from one region to another with each local and regional entity erecting road blocks, making trade and mobility over land almost impossible.

The Somali region is full of local conflicts, all are complicated, many have been simmering, some frozen and then you have the real open wounds such as Elafweyn, that have past the point of being able to cool it down and don’t need much to re-ignite it. And all have one thing in common, that they can’t be solved on their own or as a stand alone conflict, without addressing the wider underlying common and shared principles and social contract of, (urban/rural) communal/ individual rights, responsibilities, relationships, ownership of commons (land, resources, power). And this needs to be addressed on the level of the broader social contract that goes beyond individual localities, regions and clans, and can be only addressed on the broader level of Somali social contract.

Back to memory lane. Unfortunately things didn’t go as hoped and wished back then, but it’s never to late as 12 years later, one has another chance to start over and do things differently.

I don’t know the agenda and scope of this Conference, but think it would be interest of the wider region if the conference would lead to outcome that calla for and develops a roadmap for a ‘Grand Regional Peace and Reconciliation Conference’ that is a genuine, inclusive, bottom-up dialogue initiative addressing the most pressing issue that Somalia’s face today, the structural and unaddressed local grievances and disputes over resources, governance and shared ownership of commons. This conference comes also at the occasion of memorialising the Borama peace conference of 1993, that has brought exactly 30 years ago the peace in the Somaliland region, and brought about the foundations for the bottom-up state building, self governance that many have reaped from, and has been followed and emulated across the wider region And perhaps this conference of the Awdal folks could memorialise and commonwealth that significant historic step, by starting and taking the lead for a positive trend and counter-intuitive thinking and going against the current dominant rationele of narrow, short sighted and reactive thinking and directions, by taking lead and re-initiating, reviving and renewing the proven approach to address and solve issues through a broad inclusive, bottom-up dialogue and reconciliation to resolve in the context of todays issues and disputes in governance, political deadlocks and local clan conflicts over resources, governance and inclusive ownership. And that way cementing, updating and strengthening what is left of the Somali Social Contract. The Awdal Clan has played a historic important and commendable role in the peace, state building and self governance of many Somali’s, and could do so again in taking lead for this role. And perhaps this could have different trajectories; a) a regional trajectory, and b) an intra and cross regional trajectory. Secondly, think it would also make sense to concretise the agenda and long wishes aims of the Awdal community to take forward the economic development through developing a roadmap, Regional Development Board and Taskforce of Technical Experts to develop the Zeila-Borama-Ethiopia Corridor Business Case and Investment strategy for the Port, Road and Infrastructure development. And furthermore develop a wider Regional Economic strategy by proposing comprehensive action plans to develop a number of key sectors for the region (mining&natural resources, cross border trade with Yemen/Djibouti/Ethiopia, Agriculture and Tourism). Just some intuitive thoughts on the upcoming Awdal Conference.

Not sure why ‘Unuka’ has a Minister in Jubbaland, while many of the clans who have significant populations in that region are not represented or underrepresented in Jubbalands Parliament and Cabinet. Second, is it my perception or are some of these States following the examples of Somaliland, Expelling Somali people to other regions, while they are not even ‘secessionist’?

On your first point, SOL is not the only place where conversations take place, as I actually started this conversation with SL politicians back in 2012 during the first Taleex Conference, that I saw as a positive and welcome development for the ‘North’ (if you are okey with that term), that a unified Khaatuma platform and voice would be an opportunity to start a genuine dialogue between Somaliland and Khaatuma. And think that some in Siilanyo circles shared this sentiment back then, and back in 2016 I wrote and appealed to many different actors to support the talks with AUN Ali Khaliif Galeydh’s, and again in 2017/2018 for Somaliland to honour the agreement with Khaatuma and start its implementation, unfortunately without much success. Second point, irrelevant if it takes months, years, decades or even a century, there will come a time or period that those who live in close territorial proximity, have shared or inter-connected interest, will need to come together and agree on how to manage their commons. Wether this is SSC and Somaliland, Somaliland and Somalia, Puntland, Makhir or Galgaduud. Nobody is going anywhere, the people will not move and neither will the land suddenly move, only thing what will change over time is people’s views, perceptions, attitudes, emotions and thus relations. So never say never.

Where is Xiriirland?

Now your generalising and even worser labelling with statements like ‘you people are cut of the same clot’, it seems you are much closer in thoughts then those you are despising who also made a sport out of labeling and seeing everywhere enemies and animosities, even when there are none. Indeed let’s leave it there.

Somaliland/SSC Khatuumo: Somaliland Government was Always Wrong By Mohamed Ibrahim Monday August 28, 2023 Having been observing Somali politics for a number of years, the defeat of the Somaliland forced in Goojcade was inevitable. This is the case because the war lacked political legitimacy, was injustice and doomed to fail all the time. The uprising in Lascaanod was born out of the conditions and violence/insecurity the local residents felt for over ten years. Historically, Somaliland was wrong was on many levels. First, they wrongly assume or (wilfully ignored) everyone in the region will embrace Somaliland’s pursuit of independent state and failing to provide a political space for people who clearly have a political of their own to join the Greater Somalia. This was the first monumental political mistake that was made by this Somaliland government and others. For a number of years, I have warned against the political imprisonment and harassment of anyone in the region who did not subscribed to the independence of Somaliland. However, subsequent Somaliland governments ignored and intensified their threats and imprisonment where even raising small blue flag would land you a prison sentence. This showed me the authority lacked the confidence and capacity to enact their political vision without subjugating and imprisoning the people that believed otherwise. Somaliland government wilfully ignored there are silent majority in Sool region who enjoy peace and security by do not subscribe to the Somaliland vision of independence. The Somaliland government failed to open the political space for Somali unionism and this continues be a colossal mistake. When that security was lost in the aftermath of political assassinations in the region and authorities failed to safeguard the safety of innocent people, the people rose up to protect themselves. When the pillar of security was lost, nobody in the region had no loyalty to Somaliland as an entity as they never believed in the vision of independence to start with. Secondly, the Somaliland authority failed to read the mood and then enacted their second disastrous decision which was to use military force against the people of Lascaanood and its political entities. The challenge before Somaliland required political solution. Never a military solution. President Muse Bihi Abdi and his political associates in the SNM failed to learn from their own lessons and struggles. When the dignity and safety of others are threatened, the pursuit of justice and dignity will always outweigh and prevailed from any military intervention. This was the case in the SNM movements and this episode in our history is no different. It is in this context I warn against further escalation of violence and appeal for cool heads in Somaliland to influence proceedings in the coming weeks. Military solution was never a solution and is no longer the solution. This issue can only be solved by overarching political road-map involving Somalia and Somaliland. The conflict is a symptom of wider political failure and lack of political reconciliation and trust deficits across Somalia/Somaliland, which has created a fragmented societies and political entities on the edge which has been a bomb waiting blow up. That bomb has gone off in Lascanood in the last eight months and only a political solution would stop further bloodshed, insecurity and miserable future ahead for all. http://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2022/jan/185116/somalia_and_somaliland_a_case_of_post_conflict_troubled_society.aspx http://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2017/apr/141775/somaliland_exhausted_consensus_north_south_divide_opportunity_for_meaningful_dialogue.aspx http://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2021/oct/184124/deportation_of_somalis_is_an_embarrassment_and_a_political_problem_to_somaliland.aspx Mohamed Ibrahim BA/MSc, London School of Economics and Political Science, is a keen writer and social justice campaigner, London based, He can be reached via @Mi_shiine

Whatever talking points can stop the bloodshed and make people(yes tolka) see a different more reasonable and peaceful pathways, the end result is eventually the result of an equilibrium which neither me or others mortals control. And yes there is a sense of concern and anxiousness where things are heading with Somaliland, perhaps even driven by own self preservation, as not all of us live in the comforts of the western, without having to face and live with the realities on the ground, as some of us are inhabitants of this place and thus personally impacted by the outcomes.

Read carefully what I wrote, I am stating that it doesn’t make sense to call for more violence or beat the drums of war, even from the perspective and rationele of those who have completely other viewpoints, it doesn’t make sense to choose the same disastrous path.

It makes sense to restrengthen and reinforce the armed forces, but launching a military campaign without the following, a) having evaluated how things went and what wrong on the SL side, b) evaluate and draw lessons from the last 7 months active campaign, c) think elaborately of and determine a unified political aim and strategy, which military campaign is supporting or underlying to. Is it really to reach Tukaraq and maintain presence or is it a save facing end to this saga giving SL a small victory to close the this chapter. d) Determine the long term goal SL has on the region and it’s claimed border, does it want SSC to become fully part of Somaliland on the long haul or not, does it want to reach those borders on the long haul or not, will Somaliland redraw permanently it’s borders to the new realities and accept a seperate SSC region, or does it see space for diplomatic solutions on the short, middle and long term? e), implementing a structural and consistent strategy to win or atleast soften the hearts and minds of the SSC folks, as they would see any SL attack or movement in to their territory as an existential threat for their existence and survival and would mean another and bigger major defeat against a unified and determined populous fighting an existential threat. And perhaps this time even the broader D clan might get involved as they might perceive a SL attack as a deliberate attack by a clan against their enemies en clan, rather then a political conflict on controls of borders and maamuls. If all these elements are not properly thought through, followed-up on and one doesn’t develop and implement a genuine strategy for the short, medium and long term and SL is simply driven by ‘revenge’ and social pressure to redeem its ‘image’ and other populistic sentiments, then I fear one is sailing towards another disaster and much bigger political, military and human disaster.

Despite decades of investment, training and support in the security infrastructure of Somalia, the governance of this sector is fragmented, disjointed and ineffective. On top of that, it has become an industry that is part of a war economy with to many actors having pertinent interest in the current status wie and chaos to remain. This industry needs to be reformed, while taking short term and long term goals in to account and proving some sort of incentives for the spoilers to be part of that reform process. I don’t get how you can have a permanent impact on security, while unworkable system remains intact. Otherwise, what will happen is Moreno’s this and that you push out AS out of a village, only for them to return as the security governance proved unable to maintain effective infrastructure, control, command and consistency. And perhaps FGS doesn’t realise fully the powerfully potential incentives it has to achieve this, which are or could be structure of command, promotion(darajooyin), training and incentivised financial pay. You can make a portion of the pay incentives based on personal or unit performance. Also I noticed Somalia’s Police and Army don’t have (active) Internal affairs or Inspection units, neither have I seen Military Police being active in keeping oversight. So, why expect change or significant impact if there isn’t any incentives or disincentives in place for neither individual or units. Also notice that there is a false consensus that ‘higher knowledge’ is not required in the security sector, and few of the university graduates and those that get a scholarships actually are invited to come work in this sector, while atleast 10-20% should be higher and foreign educated officers. Don’t think there is anyone with a Masters degree active in the armed forces or plays a significant influential role there, that tells you a lot.

I think both traditional and political leaders from Somaliland and SSC need to deescalate things among broader populous by call people for restraint and to refrain from ‘clan’ based attacks and incitement. You can have a military goal and strategy, while instructing people to refrain from extreme animosity and incitement, as that will contribute little to the rational and results on the ground and undermine any political objective one might have.

This what you get when the ‘populous’ doesn’t get direction, clarity, while it’s getting mixed and contradictory messages. People need directions and moral leadership, specially in this kind of times of confusion, otherwise they might explode and take matters in to their own hands, lead to backlashes and uprisings against whomever. It’s to dangerous to let things run it’s own course.

A war needs to have a political purpose and goal, but a military war for purely ‘revenge’ purposes showcases ethnic or clan based revanchism, and that SL is giving up claim on those regions and its claimed colonial borders. The current ‘popular’ sentiment in the streets should not be the guiding the thinking and decision making.

Think he will try to stay in power even though LA defeat is a big shock and everyone is waiting for some sort of an explanation of what went wrong, and so far no explanation has been given on how things occurred on the SL side, in terms of command, communication and control there are legitimate public questions that have been unanswered.

This would be quite petty though, to stage a small attack in order to present as victory for social media crowds. You’re saying SL wouldn’t dare to go all the way to LA?

More and more dark clouds seem to be gathering in the eastern region of Somaliland, and the drum beats of war can be heard from afar. And one wonders what’s next for Somaliland and SSC regions? Are we looking at a continuing and vicious cycle of war and suffering, a new catastrophe in the making, with more bloodshed, thousands of deaths instead of hundreds, thousands of wounded and paralysed soldiers, thousands of weeping mothers, thousands of mourning families. Are we looking at a repeat or perhaps sequel of the civil war of three decades ago, another path to self destruction, with hundreds of thousands of displaced and refugees, generations of children growing up in refugee and IDP camps, ghost towns, and self created famines? Allah forbid, is this the new pathway for Somaliland and SSC, or is another discourse possible? Have we exhausted all other options? Where is the cease fire, where are the Peace Ergo’s, mediators, committees, and third party delegations, where are the traditional elders, where are the leaders, the mediators , where are the sound minds and rational heads? Have they all been lost to the waves and motions of inciting and emotionally infectious social media, Facebook and YouTube accounts, clips and comments. Have they all been infected, have they all become terminal? Where are the intellectuals, the thinkers, the writers, the poets, that made us reflect, think, analyse and that made us think rationally before we speak, before decide, before we choose and before we act? Let us think and consider alternatives before we act.