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Everything posted by Old_Observer
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Oromos need the federal sytem and kilil more than Tigray, that is if you are convinced, as you seem to be, Tigray dismantled by Oromo. BTW WSLF was the first organization that put federal system as only option in its conference. All others endorsed, agreed and implemented. It is in the best interest of everybody except Amhara to keep the federal system. Tigray needs and gets least protection from autonomy. Ethiopia is a big country of 100 million and 80 Ethnics.
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Ethiopia is fairly relatively safe from Arabs. Just friend to some, but never an Ethiopian would imagine being in Arab league. Egypt is only Arab country that had negative effect and even that is now much reduced. Almost all societies in Ethiopia do not have anything in common with Arabs, Moslem or Christian or Jewish.
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Critical reflections on the last days of Somalia's Overthrown dictator.
Old_Observer replied to Ifiye's topic in Politics
This will be in the history of the people as greatest missed opportunity. I hope there is enough documentation and books on this history, before those who failed it get rid of the history. Many societies have the built in failure of accepting midiocrity. Empires have been lost by people accepting folks that serve themselves or worst other countries, but by some propaganda and false image are considered great men. I am sure there are Somali who say "if only Ali Mahdi was given the chance". -
Critical reflections on the last days of Somalia's Overthrown dictator.
Old_Observer replied to Ifiye's topic in Politics
Which meant that Puntland would have also wanted full autonomy and the rest were only interested in replacing late Barre, but not change anything in the structure of the country. Thus no common end game. -
What a fitting description. Cosa Nostra where the current American Empire and the previous British Empire are both at their service just like the Police in New York and Chicago were to Cosa Nostra. Egypt wants to punish Somaliland more than it does Somalia. Both humiliated Egypt in regards to military, navy and Airforce base Egypt wanted, but Somaliland was that humiliated Egypt first. Countries like Egypt are petty and vindictive, but there is nothing Egypt can do to Somalia at the present time. Saudis also have base in Djibouti (at least and agreement) and I do not think will go full throtle against Somalia. US and Britain will provide more support to UAE than the Saudis against Somalia. Djibouti is of course in Somalia's corner here and Ethiopia is neutralized unless UAE comes with sack of hard currency and even then Ethiopia can only do small insignificant moves.
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Good news. Its not only the Somalis around the world joining the mobile and remote age. The government and secret services as well. Farmaajo joining the Putin and others.
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If he did that he needs to be praised. Somalia is in no position or condition to be playground of the fight between petrodollar drunk Bedewin. If he finds a way to calm the situation, all power to him.
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Here is where Puntland is paying a heavy price for Somalia. I hope a thnak you from the rest and some money to partly in a small way compensate for all the losses is on its way. Puntland is not benefitting anything from Turkey/Qatar, but is giving up a lot. If the FG sorts its problems and starts governing, will be all worth it, but if all this effort is wasted, Puntland will be left holding an empty bag and nothing to show for it.
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Critical reflections on the last days of Somalia's Overthrown dictator.
Old_Observer replied to Ifiye's topic in Politics
The role of the United States in the agreement between different regional movements in Ethiopia is manufactured and if there were a bit is exagerated. The most important role was actually played by Canada, unless you assume that whatever Canada did was under US which again is not true. Britain also had big role. You have to realize that Zenawi knew in person leaders and important personalities of three Somali organizations. He knew and had assured the most important demand, full autonomy, full self government. You also need to understand that OLF and OPDO (part of EPRDF) were both long ago assured of their main demands and the rest they do it themselves. All the North was already fighting together like one organization for many years before 1991. They knew exactly what kind of state they will form many years before 1991. Maybe people talk of the delay to capture Addis Ababa by few days. That was done to extricate the Jewish population that was ready to be taken to Israel. In Somalia things happened the opposite of that in Ethiopia. The rebels in Somalia did not have common vision and most importantly common understanding and conviction of what will come in place of late Barre. Even SNM and SSDF which one expects come from similar circumstances and one area had no agreement which both truly believe and trust to implement. Where as in Ethiopia they even had understanding that the Oromo since are represented in EPRDF, their old organization OLF will have 12.5% in government. In Somalia late Barre still had some support call it clan or friends or family..where as Mengistu had total collapse. His own officers organized a party of their own and joined EPRDF. -
Video: President Mustafe Martin gets a big welcome in the UK
Old_Observer replied to Deeq A.'s topic in Politics
You see how creative one can get with this. Ethiopian diaspora is most experience with this. They have a transitional government every time a village demonstrates because there is too much dust from cement factory and cannot breathe. There are governments of national unity for med in Seattle, Another Ethiopians unity for justice and democracy gov in exile. Believe it or not there are people who pay money for these fly by night governments. There is an organization, led by a PhD who was is lecturer at some US university, that distributed Patriots' Certificate I kid you not, and people paid $500 USD per certificate. The promise was Weyannie will be overthrown in 6 months and the patriots will be in Addis Ababa. The organization is now on its 7th year morphed into something totally different. There was an Amhara patriotic organization which took pictures of thousands and thousands of Eritrean conscripts, made DvD and raised funds. They made mistake of taking a Journalist who had conscience and exposed the whole scheme. People came from as far as South Africa and London to join the non existing army and became farm workers for Eritrean regime. SOL is the UN of horn of africa. Somalia, Somaliland, Puntland, Mogadishu, Bay and Bakool are permanent and the rest of us Djibouti, NFD, Kilil are temporary memebers of the Security cuncil. You folks have direct and immediate imterest and the rest of us are voting only when you folks agree on something which has not happened yet. Jubaland now wants to reform SOL and become permamnent memeber veto power. Kilil is like Japan important, but peaceful. -
For Somalis who were accusing Somaliland or Puntland being too close to Ethiopia, what is coming will be total nightmare. Puntland maybe caught in so many vortexes and not able to be prominent now, but as for Ethiopia and Somaliland its a highway with no speed limits. The Somaliland official who jokingly stated that who ever he met of the high officials of Ethiopia, almost every one of them was Tigray will have to brush up on some others, since Abiy whether for the Americans is full speed to undermine Djibouti and what better way than the issue of UAE. The joke among some Amhara is that, the Amhara might offer their services to Qatar and Turkey, except the bloody Tigray and Somali are blocking the view to Turkey. The speed limit that was Djibouti in the relations between Somaliland and Ethiopia has been hit hard by America. Abiy and Bixi are contantly talking, but hiding it deep and coding it in a way others cannot decode for now. Oodweyne, There might be regime change in Eritrea that will benefit you folks immensely. UAE might be left with just Somaliland. The regime change in Eritrea is by Djibouti and Sudan. Turkey will have a base a stone throw away from all those jokeying in Djibouti. Except for Djibouti and Somaliland Turkey will have full access all sea from Kenya to Egypt.
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Video: President Mustafe Martin gets a big welcome in the UK
Old_Observer replied to Deeq A.'s topic in Politics
That means you are not sciologist. lol You are not upto speed on how many republics, empires, federations live on the internet. There is kind of no man's land between Sudan and Egypt. It has had kings, presidents from Britain, Turkey, etc. The last guy who is emperor of this place is now a Russian. He has citizens now close to 10,000. -
Good news from Jigjiga. Isdhexgalka beesha Gabooye iyo Dadka kale.
Old_Observer replied to galbeedi's topic in Politics
What did you read from the picture you posted? Why did Abiy come to Kilil when he was in the government that was campaigning against Illey to point of calling for his head? Who is lifting up hands of who in the picture? Abiy knows he has to put the Oromo in place, law and order restored assure the Somali of this function and reality. That is first order of business and he has started doing that. Your man from the Oromo government is in jail BTW just in case you are missing him. Illey is now stateman for other Ethiopians not just for the Somali. Don't count your chickens before they are hatched. -
galbeedi and the likes, This is where geopolitics of one country can play into hands of another. America wanted Abiy to be prime minister of Ethiopia, galbeedi wanted Abiy to be prime minister of Ethiopia. galbeedi wants Somaliland not to grow as separate country. galbeedi is against Tigray and kilil. Oromo are against kilil and as much as they can against Tigray. Djibouti is against Somaliland same as our galbeedi. Djibouti is against Oromo opposite to our galbeedi. Kilil is neutral between Somaliland and Djibouti. Benefits from both, friendly to both and if there are issues which is natural to have issues kilil is confident can work with both Somaliland and Djibouti. In Abiy election to PM America, Oromo and our galbeedi won. Kilil, Djibouti and Tigray lost (not big loss but loss none the less) Abiy will definitely support and push for Somaliland success including UAE projects. America will also push and support for this success. Our galbeedi will be most disappointed. our Oodweyne is biggest winner in all this frakas, but is hiding it not even mentioning it let alone to gloat about it. That is what smart, calculating folks do. If it is not mentioned, no politician will be asked to take a stand. galbeedi, Since the Tigray came to prominence in a revolution was easy for them to make rapid changes. They even changed Ethiopia to federalism which was unthinkable and to the Amhara still unacceptable. Try to do that in an evolutionary way and you die before seeing any fruits of your labour. What took the Somali in Ethiopia just one generation to establish state of their very own can now take many generations to undo it.
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Its just that in his enthusiasm our galbeedi forget what the Oromo is. He thinks that an Oromo PM can do even same as a Tigray or Welayta PM was able to do. The times are completely different. The first order of business of Abiy is calm Oromo and assure the Somali and Tigray that the Oromo will be loyal to the federal structure they installed. galbeedi can not understand that the Somali in Ethiopia is the top champion of federalism, autonomy. The Somali wants to manage his business by himself. Period. The Somali does not want even soldiers from other places. The Somali will do the fighting himself if necessary. No matter how much Ethipianism the Oromo preaches, will not violate anything on this principle. Thus the Amhara are now in total chaos. Don't know what to do ether to be total opposition or hide for some time.
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Good news from Jigjiga. Isdhexgalka beesha Gabooye iyo Dadka kale.
Old_Observer replied to galbeedi's topic in Politics
This is known by everybody. All that animosity to Illey is not based on what he does, but where he is from. That will not go far unless you want to loose your Oromo hero sooner than you can meet him. He knows not to touch this. He already told the Amahara that Welqayit is not an issue being in Tigray. His answer will be the same to you and your likes. You have no room here. Kilil, Djibouti, Somaliland are like one in this issue. Small advice: Don't streach your hand to reach over a cupboard. What is in your armpits will fall and break. -
Good news from Jigjiga. Isdhexgalka beesha Gabooye iyo Dadka kale.
Old_Observer replied to galbeedi's topic in Politics
That is a noble idea why not. As long as you do it by opening more schools, more clinics, building more roads than Illey and in peaceful competition all power to you. The one thing I hate is wasting peoples energy today in destructive competition for uncknown tomorrow. When you call for destruction of Ethiopia without having anything in its replacement, that is criminal and enemy to the people. Its noble of you to support things that are useful to any one that wants to rule/govern these places. A school is useful for anyone. -
Wrong. The geo politics is an important part on your way to control a third world country. American interest may be more important on some issue rather than Oromo or galbeedi's wishes. Do you think any Somali can be president of Somalia without his stand and action being known by the geopolitics players? One leader may want to appear nationalist or internationalist depending what is good to the masses to hear, but in reality its something else. The relationship with Sudan and Djibouti is critical to Tigray, but not so significant to the Oromo. What do you think he will do?
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Good news from Jigjiga. Isdhexgalka beesha Gabooye iyo Dadka kale.
Old_Observer replied to galbeedi's topic in Politics
It is already in place. As capacity permits Everyone in the Kilil has the right to education free of charge until 1st degree. And after that depends on the success of the student to continue further. -
Good news from Jigjiga. Isdhexgalka beesha Gabooye iyo Dadka kale.
Old_Observer replied to galbeedi's topic in Politics
Well what do I know/ Pretty soon our galbeedi will have the kilil flag in his living room and Illey's picture on his living room wall. When Illey suggested this idea some 2 years ago, many Somalis did not see the merit of the idea. -
By the same token if that is significant to you: Abiy went to Tigray Placed a rif on the monument of the Weyannie Named Students from 60s, fighers of 17 years of armed struggle from Afar Tigray as the heroes and framers of today's Ethiopia And to tease some of you he spoke in Tigrigna He also reminded in Oromia that Oromo needs to live in peace with other Ethnics most of all the Somali, Afar and Tigreans. He praised the armed forces for keeping law and order and memorialized the police and soldiers who lost their lives in the last years. That all is insignificant to the challenges to reconcile what Ethiopians want and what the big powers want. The British are openly askeing/telling Ethiopia to side with them against Russia. Its very uncharacteristic of the British they stated this not behind closed doors, but openly in the media. The Americans want to press Djibouti. The Egyptians want to cool the relation between Sudan and Ethiopia. These are more critical issues than conflict of villages. QERO means Sahabab. One is in Oromo language the other in Arabic.
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Ethiopian Parliament postpones Elections in Dirdawa
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
There are differing and sometimes conflicting interests here. The debate in parliament showed. There were 8 MPs who abstained. Is it constitutional for parliament to postpone elections of autonomous federal cities? Who really wants this postponment in Addis Ababa, the Amhara or the Oromo? Who really wants this postponment in Dirdawa, the Oromo or the Somali? Which of the 2 cities is main reason for postponment, Addis Ababa or Dirdawa? The 2 cities were relatively peaceful during the disturbance in Ethiopia. Its true that all disturance was going around these 2 cities. -
Peace Action, What if I said the opposite of what I mean? What you are suggesting Yunis to follow is bad formula. Why not evaluate each issue on its merits or demerit? Ethiopians were divided, are so many Ethnics long before Zenawi was born. What Zenawi did was make them live under one government, one territory, one country which was not possible to do by his opponents. If Zenawi (his colleagues) had not achieved this in 1991, the Amhara had no force, wisdom or any influence to keep the different nationalities that wanted out of the system/empire. Divide and rule is an empty high sounding phrase here.
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The election commission recomended to parliament that there is not enough time, peaceful time to conduct elections, therefore postpone by a year. After debate the parliament agreed and resolved to postpone the local governments election by a year. Who benefits by this delay? galbeedi, Did you advice your Oromos to postpone it or the Somalis won to get time to organize and be competitive? BTW Addis Ababa elections has also been postponed, but that is not as important as Dirdawa and area. Addis Ababa is for Oromo and Amhara.