That is doing good and also making a fence. Can be just to do good or can have added expectations. This case has been boiling for long time now. When rich people fight the debris is everywhere. This fight has an added tentacles. Its in the palace as well not just in the bank and the street. Somaliland is caught in a bind here: Commercial laws Trade laws Banking and Financial transaction laws Nomad's tribal unwritten laws of standing with your kin. Sometimes even when wrong. Solution: Somaliland ensures that the businessman will not do anything remotely political about Djibouti. In short he forgets there is even an entity called Djibouti. Somaliland does handle the international part of the issue in the courts and out of court negotiated settlements Everyone forgets the conflict ever happened and moves on never to do anything related to it. Ghelleh also closes the file and does not pursue it even if he is being nagged at home. The BOSS is a boss.

This was a long time in coming. Money drives people to act beyond their capacity. He was attempting to act like Soros with that shindig of very small, complicated yet simple, weak yet very strong, backward yet advanced, isolated yet involved with who is who of the world. No body no matter how wealthy can be allowed to use a region or country against another country for individual business fortune or misfortune. Somaliland cannot behave like a one business mans' private protector against a far stronger and far connected protector the ruler/s of Djibouti. There is also what is called commercial and trade culture and legalities.

There is this video making the rounds when Somali people were really hot. Wanted to liberate Africans in south Africa from Apartheid. The Somali nomad could not comprehend how the white man, a minority/small population, comes to Africa and owns everything, runs everything and commands the black man in everything. To a nomad the free, the adventurous, the brave all that was incomprehensible. Ilhan Omar comes from that culture. Now the Somali is in the same boat, being ordered by IC the new cover for colonialism in his own home. All those rebel societies of Yemen, Somalia and Afghanistan are being punished for disobedience of the past by different methods.

Federal States in Somalia - not much happening except some village news Djibouti - quite as always (most times) Eritrea - back to quite, trips limited to breakfast trips to Ethiopia Sudan - under attack by combination of real and manufactured issues. All neighbors want Al Bashir gone. Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt as 3 amigos of America, UAE Kenya - quite as usual, restrained South Sudan - typical African bush man. Much to be exploited, but nobody interested enough to straighten out. Somalia..Somalia..Just another Ethiopia on small scale..stumbling. Somaliland - Hot Hot Hot Can you handle being this hot from all that cold of few years? Mr. Dini is trying his best to get Puntland hot. He might succeed. Everybody needs him to slow the hotness of Somaliland, but he is not interested in that. He actually thinks can follow Somaliland into the Hottness category and mind his own business regardless of SFG.

The Turkish are very busy at home. There is concerted propaganda war against the Turkish from America, Israel, Arabs and Europeans. It probably means everyone of them is afraid the Turkish might break out and become a force that is impossible to box in again. Turkish cannot be active now in Somalia, Sudan and Ethiopia due to their situation and the changes against them in Ethiopia. Very unfortunate for Somalia, but Somalia had failed the Turkish long before these changes in Ethiopia. I guess Somaliland is now the hottest entity in HoA. Both for and against. Somalia and Eritrea are so quite, one can hear a pin drop. Ethiopia is just stumbling and both Eritrea and Somalia can't do anything about it. Ethiopia has run out of money. Uncle Sam has none to give, so Ethiopia is making a really mad dash back to Conficious country. The Chinese are exacting a price for the mis-behaving by PM Abiy. Turkish are still active in Xabeshi territories, but a shadow of what the Turkish had. Now the elections in Turkey not going Erdogan's way has given window to America to torment Erdogan with democracy. galbeedi, Not a good day for Turkish and Somalis

Leadership: Ahmed Shide - Chairman Abtigis -vice Chairman (never member just joined and becomes vice-chairman) Now is open talk season accusing Illey of separatism. Both PM Abiy and Abtigis can't repeat it enough times.The sad part is, there is not a single item accusing Illey of what he did/did not do during the decade he was president of Kililka. All that face book campaign of human rights, 'cruelty', torture, extra jujicial killings...often repeated here in SOL has not been included in court filings. Not a single incident/item. All he is being accused of is of separatism. There will be general election for governments, Federal and Kililkas in a years time. The newly se-elected leadership of Somali party is to take it to next election. The name of the governing Somali party has been changed to Somali Democratic party, from Ethio Somali People's Democratic Party - SPDP. It has become fashion now in Ethiopia, a name change to x Democratic Party: Oromo Peoples Democratic Organization changed to Oromo Democratic Party Amxara National Democratic Movement to Amxara Democratic Party And now the Somali. Many other mom and pop shop Parties are also changing names. From Tigray times of Movement, Front, Congress...now Democratic Party. Have not heard any Republican Party yet. PM Abiy, it seems has lost momentum. The head of the Central Bank just stated no hard currency and many projects have been stopped, curtailed, slowed. The Amxara who were main allies are satisfied the Tigray has been sidelined, so now the alliance with Abiy is falling apart. Who owns Addis Ababa the capital between Oromo and Amxara is the hottest issue in Ethiopia. Somali issues, including the conference are not on front screen. Abtigis profile is really low. ONLF is in disarray politically since they have no history of working well with Oromo. Abtigis for sure leans publicly to Amxara. He keeps blaming Illey for preaching hate against Amxara. Creating problems with Oromo. That is most repeated card.

Its about time some out of the box radical advices are taken: 1. Move the government for 6 months or a year to Jowhar or Baidaba 2. Leave only foreign ministry since Embassies and consulates are there 3. Set up government for the city from both power houses or divide it into 3 sub-city regions. In any case make them fully responsible. No tax collection no federal funds 4. Hold a conference and set framework responsibilities of regions and Federal 5. Dedicate full time on cleaning up regions starting from Jowhar or Baydahaba which ever is chosen 6. Agree formula for disbursement of federal funds to regions example: population, security safest gets most since they need full admin..not safe get less since they only need army and militia for most part Negotiate with Somaliland a modus vivendi..how to live in this transition accept Somaliland foreign co-operation with countries, Somaliland not even to say Hi let alone interfere with any warlord or entity in Somalia set up joint committee with Somaliland for all interactions. etc...

There is known knowns, there is known uncknowns and then there is unckown uncknowns American Defense minister If its true, so what? Jordan, Egypt ,UAE, Saudi Arabia (semi hiding), one time also Qatar the Turkish, Tunisia, Morocco... Somaliland would be in good company.

Why they do not leave such talk for their chit chat. Its just too much humiliation. Oil, Fishing, border conflicts, Qatar, UAE activities, too much Ethiopia/Eritrea travels...so much pointless face book, yet nothing on most important issues: Constitution Turkish co-operation Practical Agriculture food production activities States, regions co-operation

Farmaajo Govt is now totally confused in both Mogadishu and International relations. He thought would be smooth sailing getting rid of Federal states and consolidating power. Internationally he remains on two trees. Qatar/Turkish and UAE/Ethiopia/Eritrea. His guards the Uganda/Kenya...are in the Qatar/Turkish side if it comes down to it. He also missed the Saudi sub group which Ghelleh used perfectly.

lol Too bad there is Ghelleh in between and cannot be done through Kililka, since the Afar are in between. Saalax, Somaliland may have a lot of other things to be blamed or accsed of, but Somalinad hurting other Somalis by conspiring or in the service of foreigners is NOT. 1. Were expected to harm SSDF either by themselves or in conjunction with USC by Menigistu Ethiopia, they never did. They actually warned SSDF folks to be careful. 2. Were expected to act against Kililka with Eritrea and ONLF, they never did. They actually warned ONLF not to use Somaliland. ONLF will tell you this. 3. Are expected by so many even big powers to hurt Djibouti and they never do, always find excuses to avoid hurting their fellow Somali. 4. Mogadishu power groups would pay anything for Somaliland to weaken or kill Puntland, they never do. Somaliland may quarel with Puntland, but on their own, not to benefit anyone else Ethiopia, Eritrea or some Arabs. The above is all either documented or you can visually seen it. If all enclaves had this kind of conduct, so much development, peace and some order would have been achieved already at least for most of the enclaves.

I agree with your description of the situation, but you missed one very very important country in your possible solutions and way forward, the Turkish. Farmaajo has to go back and assure the Turkish that he will not repeat his past failures and failing them. He also need to reduce all that Abiy/Afweri shenanigan and reconcile with Ghelleh, but even if he does not do that, going back to the Turkish and this time very seriously is critical. Don't forget that one of the openly repeated speeches of Afwerki is kicking the Turkish from Suakin, Sudan. The Abiy/Afwerki team must have been instructed from UAE to reduce Turkish and Chinese activities in Ethiopia. The Turkish have only one project on the go which is largest industrial area in Tigray with some schools and clinics in Afar kilil.

That is good observation. Me thinks its two guys who definitely know very clearly that they will go back to their host countries. Its like Bolton who was asked why he did not go to Vietnam and his answer was..no point to die in some rice puddle..

You are right in that the population of Ethiopia is much less than 100 million. But as regards to the Somali the loss from out migration is not much. Places like Kismayu are too small (quarter million) that let alone 30-50 thousand Somalis from Kililka, even 10,000 would completely take over and since they are new and slightly different they become very visible. Kililka has highest birth rate in Ethiopia. Child death has been reduced greatly, so all in all the decline is not that big. The conflict with Oromia region may have affected population a bit. A good idea would be that from all bordering regions, people come for the count. It is significant for the disbursement of Federal funds. Amxara will not gain in other regions since they were always counted as Amhara Ethnic even the ones in Kililka in the past, but they will loose a great deal in their kilil. Is there follow up to the conference, like web site, twitter account..etc Its a good idea that you had conference, but follow up is important. Having good relations with all regions even all governments is also important, even those you may not like or those that are suspicious.

In America the city of Detroit paid $20 each to homeless people to go into register, so the city would qualify for the million people city and they were very close at some 900+ K. In Ethiopia its census year, very important for election and also for the federal equalization disbursement from Federal government. All Ethiopians except Amxara are demanding that the census be done. Amxara are saying over my dead body, unless done after election and after the disbursement formulae is done. Reason: Amxara kilil population is about 23 million. Of this it was generally stated as 22 million Amxara. Now almost every ethnic in Amxara kilil has organized itself and want the list to be according to Ethnic. Its estimated the Agews (about 6 clans/tribes) alone are about 11 Million. Most of them were not even on the list in past census they were counted as Amxara. On top of that there are about 6 other Ethnics who are Oromo, Argoba...etc. The educated guess is that the Amxara Ethnic are are only about 5 million. Another 5 million in other kilils and that is it. How is the census politics in Somaliland, Puntland, Djibouti..etc. In Kililka its big politics, but nothing violent or life or death kind of politics. Some from Somaliland, some from Djibouti and some from other regions of Somalia may show up for the count, but this is positive since it only adds to the total Somali population, without meaningfully affecting the balance inside Kililka.

Constitution, Constitution..was the first order of business. You cannot fight Shabab without constitution. No body knows what his share of power, share of resource is and also share of responsibility in fighting Shabab. Both President and PM are against it. Leap service will not cut it. Why would anyone fight Shabab without knowing their place in the country. Why take a great risk to your existence when the great possibility is that Alshebab under changed name will take over the country.

HSM was one of a kind. He practiced what he preached. He never objected any Somali enclave, even in other countries, to bring money from anywhere, develop their areas as long as you did not ask for your share from what is under his control. He agreed with Ghelleh that as long as every enclave develops, then its easy to negotiate anything. Never minded his hoarding.

Somebody tell the Col. Caare to go back home or go far away maybe Mogadishu. The sands are shifting around Kililka, Somaliand, Puntland and Djibouti. I have heard from reliable folks that Puntland and Somaliland are discussing something strategic. Col. Caare is just too small to figure in what they are talking about. What they are talking about is so big and so important, let alone him something a lot bigger than him can be railroaded. If what I am hearing comes to results, Somaliland and Puntland will permanently shelf any military plan they had between them.

Abiy is travelling to Arabs, Afwerki is not feeling well. I wonder who will come to Farmaajo help, not Amisom, not SWS, not Puntland..maybe Jubaland will come to his rescue.

They both have been given a to do list, what to say and when to meet from UAE. As for Somaliland, Dictators never forget. Afwerki is not going to forget Somaliland's role during ICU days. Afwerki thought that ICU later Shabab was his best opportunity to be more than what he is. Afwerki failed miserably to bring terrorism to Djibouti. Afwerki is kissing every foot he thinks is against Djibouti, (has given rise to cartoon and video culture to Eritreans mocking him),but Somaliland is actually most principled, and long term thinking than any enclave so Afwerki will fail again. Afwerki will not find help in Somaliland against Djibouti and he will not help Farmaajo also against Puntland.

I fully support and admire her, but excluding or denying somebody the ability to speak against her is dictatorial and very destructive. Deny a platform and someone denies you ..slowly the fight becomes in denial of platform, but never confronting or convincing anyone.

Proof positive that all communities are the same in internal fights. I was just listening to some Jewish guy who said the exact same thing about those who are moderate and were saying that the Somali was only criticizing Americans for being more loyal to Israeli govt and not Jewish. You must be the equivalent of the extreme zionists for the Somali society.

I don't think MMA has forgotten the spat between Puntland and Eritrea. It was everywhere and most Somalis remember it. Its just that MMA is accusing me of seeing Afwerki in everywhere. The fact is he sees Tigray, Illey everywhere. Its called projecting on others ones own practice and way of thinking. Erdogan and Morrison spat and Adde Muse and Afwerki spat are the same. Both are going 100 years back, Both are spatting over terrorists. I also know MMA knows Afwerki is Tigray himself, its just quarel among relatives is worst than among people who have less in common/share the least. There was an Amin Amir cartoon where Shiek and Aweys were cursing Tigray this Tigray that in Asmara and young Ideed told them to stop it before they get kicked out. There is more Tigray control in Eritrea than in Ethiopia.

Turkish and Australia are in some diplomatic spat over the terrorist incident in New Zeland....going all the way back to first world war times. Puntland and Eritrea (Adde Muse and Afwerki) got into spat during ICU/Shabab days going all the way back to first world war times. Poor Australians fought in Gallipoli bravely, but to catastrophic defeat at Turkish hands where Winston Churchill was fired/resigned. That is how big the loss was for both French and British Empires. There fore Erdogan spoke that if the ANZAC come to Islamic world will be sent back in caskets like their fathers. Eritreans as the only Italian colony to serve Italy everywhere, were brought to Puntland for punishing the Boqor and sultanate, after the defeat, insult over injury. The humiliation for Eritreans was that Italy (afraid that of revenge) agreed with Puntland to not place any building any camp or any symbol of colonialism in the territory of Puntland, so the Eritreans were taken to Mogadishu. Adde Muse told Afwerki that Eritrea can go with those ICU/Shabab to Mugadishu, but will not step in Puntland just like your fathers. When all else fails there is always history. Even Illey built a monument to the Sayid to rub it in on some Ethiopians of Menelik.

Is it just me or is real. In every country in the world the northern parts are more matured in their behaviour, more develped in technology, better educated and worldly. Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland among the Somali The Xabeshi among the Ethiopians The Jealin/Nubians among Sudanese. In France, Italy, Spain....etc The way Puntland and Somaliland and Djibouti and Somaliland dance around their situations is in stark difference how enclaves in South deal with their situations.