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Posts posted by galbeedi

  1. The three Amigos plus one.


    The Djibouti summit,  convened  by dictator of Djibouti Omar Ghelle , is not expected to produce any positive results for the three leaders of Somalia, Ethiopia and Djibouti. If history is a lesson, the only winner in this meeting will be Muuse Biixi of Somaliland.


     This Djibouti conference , dubbed as reconciliation summit between Somalia and Somaliland by Omar Ghelle,   is nothing but a distraction from the problems they face in their own back yard. Each one of these three leaders are facing major issues at home, yet their problems are different in nature.


    Let us begin with the Djibouti dictator Cumar Ghelle.


    After twenty-two years in power, Ghelle is not going anywhere and he is not going to change. 70 years old men do not change at the end of their life time. Just ask Donald Trump if he is willing to change his gangster methods even after becoming the leader of America. Nine years ago when Ghelle was in the process of changing the Djibouti constitution in order to rule for life, an Arab journalist asked him about the protest at home including his fight with former ally A/Rahman Boreh. Ghelle said, " in this part of the world ---meaning Djibouti---the only ruler people accept is either a dictator or prophet and I am not neither of them".


    Djibouti under Ghelle became the most expensive island in the world. Just like New York, a taxi cab ride from the airport is $35 dollars. Electricity bills are a cash cow for the family and would cost the average salary of a family, thus everyone is trying to steal the electric and bring the wires to charge their fan in the heat of the summer. With a country with almost zero precipitation or rain and abundance of burning sun, solar panels are prohibited by the state electric power monopoly. A very small group of mafia style families control everything. These dysfunctional families had kept everyone poor and dependent. When people protest demand justice and jobs, he would say: look at your brothers in Somalia, if you agitate in Djibouti, you  will be just like Somalia.  Be ware of what you wish. 


    As we speak there are huge protest both in Djibouti and abroad. Even in Somaliland, certain media and political personalities have joined the chant of " down with dictator". Since a large segment of Djiboutians hail from Somaliland,  Ghelle might be worrying for his future , thus he might be asking for a political cover from his in laws in Hargeisa. 


    Abiy Ahmed got a one-year extension from the Ethiopian parliament, but his own outlook might have changed since last year. The evil TPLF are preparing for separation and some even thing that Abiy might grant their wish or crush them which is a lose lose situation in either way. He is also worried about the Djibouti agitations which might topple the dictator and bring new leaders with different priorities. Furthermore, the so called Asab port of Eritrea long predicted to be the new Ethiopian gateway port is nowhere to be achieved at the moment. With the Somali ports out of reach at the moment, Djibouti is the main life line of Ethiopia and Abiy is trying to prop up Ghelle and show his support. 


    Furthermore, it was the Ethiopian regime that brought back the Djiboutian pilot that insigasted the protest. Also, This week, when the TPLF speaker of the Ethiopian senate resigned to give boast for the TPLF agenda, Abiy appointed a Omar Ghelle ally to that position. This summit could be new approuch for both Ghelle and Abiy. 


    Farmaajo, the lame duck president, will gain nothing from this summit.


    I was among those who put a lot of trust and hope in Farmaajo to move Somalia to the right direction and pull this country out of the political hole once for all. I knew the task was huge and difficult to achieve, and  I wasn't expecting for  Farmaajo to fix things just eight months before his term ends. Yet, I was shocked to see Farmajo failing to lead the next agenda and  been reduced as spectator while other are plotting with his prime minister.


    A divided house always fails.


    The dispute between the president and the prime minister is already surfacing to the public. Since early 2019, Farmaajo was preparing for two-year extension and to prepare for free election which might allow one man one vote. In order to achieve that goal major regions like Lower Shabelle, Jubbaland and Hir-Shabeele should be cleared and pacified from the threat of Al-shabaab. According to insiders these extension terms might not have include the prime minister. 


    According to my sources, Farmaajo wanted to establish the Galmudug state government in the summer of 2019 and select a new prime minister either from the Unaka community or from Galmudug region and gear for two years of extension. Changing the prime minister after three years and re-configuring the government to the new political reality on the ground is not a new thing. It is a necessary re-alignment.


    Mr. Khayre decided to drag his feet and slow down the process including the formation of Galmudug. It took him two years to finish a process that could have taken three months. Now, the prime minister allied himself with the opposition and rejects any formula that might lead to one man one vote. Farmaajo and company argue that almost every region except Somaliland could take the election including Baydhabo, Marka, most of South west region, Jawhar and Beledwyine, Galmudug and Puntalnd. Yet, no election could be held without first agreeing with Puntland , Jubbaland and Hir-Shabeele. The international community or the sixth community of Somalia is insisting that in order for the election to be legitimate and quarrel free , all stake holders including regional governments and opposition parties must agree on reasonable and achievable road map.Since 2004, every Somali election was accepted by everyone and no one is willing to hold a disputed or boycotted election. 


    Now with the quarrel of top leadership, a man without no constitutional authority to pass legislation in  the parliament had initiated his own road map for the election. Since everyone is smelling the blood in the water, there will be more sharks to bite the top leadership. Not only Mr. Cabdi Hashi the leader of the senate initiates his own agenda, he recruited the heavyweights of quarrel politics of Somalia like C/raxman Faroole, Juriile and Fatmaajo nemesis Fartaag. 


    The question we are all asking is why a president with zero relationship with Puntland, Jublaand , Mogadishu section of Unaka and segments of Galmudug ,would fight the only ally he had left--The prime minister. Some would say that end game fights are always expected just as Cumar Sharmaarke went against Hassan Sheikh and C/weli Gaas run against Shariif Ahmed. Yet, I am wondering what is the next move of president Farmaajo? Is he going to fire Khayre and appoint a new prime minister who could maneuver the land mines of the opposition?, does he have any plans to involve Muuse Biixi for the future?


    What could he possibly gain in Djibouti today? . Unless he got a surprise card in his sleeves, I do not see any achievable goals while eight months remained in his term. Certainly Abiy want Farmaajo to come back, but he could not help him at this stage of the game.


    Also, the useless international community who foots the bill always try to initiate useless meetings at the end of the road. They will squeeze you when you are down. Farmaajo, like Omar Gheelle and Abiy will smile to the camera and each will go home empty handed. The same cannot be said about Muuse Biixi.


    Biixi will gain from the weakened Farmaajo.


    At the beginning of his term and even two years later, Muuse Biixi was the most venerable among these four leaders. Although huge unemployment and stagnation has deepened the crises in Somaliland, the people in general adapted to the status quo since there are no any real changes on the horizon. Muuse Biixi waited and waited until the dysfunction of southern Somalia showed its cracks. Since many Somaliland members of parliament are double agents, Biixi knows the internal politics of Mogadishu before it even surfaces to the public.


    Hargeisa waxa laga haya war sheegaya waar " Laangadhuhu inta uu dhutiyayo waa in wax ka qaadana."


    My sources told me that Biixi is demanding the renewal of the old new deal signed in London and Istanbul. Unlike Addis Ababa, where he met Abiy Ahmed without preparation, this time Biixi is ready to get his agenda through in Djibouti. In order to get a huge cash , Biixi will demand commitment and grantee from the American envoy and others before he signs off any agreements. On the other hand, Biixi also knows that a contract signed with a lame duck president with a divided house in Mogadishu , will not be worthy of the paper it was written. This game of chicken supervised by the international community and leaders like Omar Ghelle will be among many signed for the last ten years. 


    In that case , I do believe Muuse Biixi will be the winner of the fake Djibouti summit.



  2. The Russian killers could bomb civilians and lightly armed militia. Erdogan had spared the lives of the Russian mercenaries to leave Tripoli. 

    The Hifter brigade had hired mercenaries from all over the world. The UAE had chartered planes around the world to deliver weapons from China, France and Russia, and hired mercenaries from Serbia, Madova, Ukraine, Belarusia, Russia, Sudan and Chad.

    Well the world's best were destroyed by the Turkish drone and intelligence.

    After the Turkish companies building infrastructure in Somalia were targeted by UAE paid Al-shabaab mercenaries, the Turkish intelligence landed in Mogadishu and started helping Somalia gather intelligence about the communications of Al-shabaab. Last month Turkish intelligence with the coordination of Somali intelligence had rescued an Italian aid worker abducted from Kenya.

    Soon Somalia will be getting some helicopters and drones.  

  3. The next major town to fall will be InshaAllah Tarhouna. Western Libya will be cleared of  warlord Hifter and his rented mercenaries from Chad, Sudan and Russia. We already know that Benghazi , the main eastern city which started the anti Khadaafi uprising, is occupied by Hifter forces with the barrel of gun. 

    Turkey backed GNA doesn't even bomb towns before it convinces civilians to leave. Turkey is playing the long game of winning hearts and minds. The Russian mercenaries who were paid by how much blood they spilled were no longer there. They were the ones who bombarded Tripoli residencial population. 

    Since the balance of power is shifted negotiations would start no with Hifter but the Tobrouk based speaker Saleh Aquila.

    The Americans had just discovered trhat the UAE companies were selling Libyan crude oil to the international market including Venezuela and other Latin countries. Hifter basically blocked oil terminals to ship to Europe but he and the Emerities were selling oil  in the black market to cover the cost of weapons. 

    Don't these UAE tired of losing. From Syria to Yemen to Libya and Africa?

    Man these gulf boys( Bin Salman and Bin Zayd) were fooled by a;most everyone. Imagine the most sophisticated Russian new generation of anti aircraft defence, the Pantsir S-1 was decimated by Turkish drones. during the battle of Al Watiya air base more than 10 of them were destroyed. Each of them costs $14 million.

    Here is Pantsir S-1 advertised by the Russians.


  4. You guys  see a tweet  by a politically motivated fellow and asume he got the scoop.

    I have totally different take on this. Khada is a Farmaajo guy. It is a good move to seperate the party exective from the candidate. That is how most western political parties operate. 

    Farmaajo will be the candidate of N&N. Khayre will not have any chance of winning. 

    Mucaaradka markaan la shakeysanayo een weydiiyo: waar maxaad war ka hatsaan Muqdishu? kama hadlaan ciidanka kulaalaya Bu'ale iyo guulaha laga gaadhsy Al-shabaab , laakiin waxay soo tuuraan, wallaahi ninkii Khayre iyo Farmaajo way is hayaan. 

    Markaasaan dhaha , oo sawtaad saddex bil ka hor lahaydeen ninamkii khaati ayey kala joogaan. Waxay yidhaahdaan markaan waa war lsa hubo. Waxa dad u dhaw Khayre ii shhegeen in Khayre Yidhi in aanu Farmaajo ka hor imaanayn inta uu Raiisul wasaare u yahay.

    Taratanku waxa uu dhex marayaa Jabhadihii wadanka dumiyey taagerayaashooda iyo Nabad iyo Nolol oo Soomaalida inteeda kale la socoto. Soomaalida iyo Jabhadaha kee ayaa badan? Waa su'aal da' weyn.

    Somalia needs stable and continues leadership for the next four yerars if we want to rise. We can not afford to change horses every few years.

  5. Turkish involvement will be good for everyone including the Saudis.

    The Saudis will save money. They would avoid buying sophisticated military equipment they can not operate properly. Most of the American weapons sold to these despots doesn't even function. 

    The $2.2 billion American Patriot missile sold to the Saudis could not shooot diwn the Iranian missle or the Houthie drones which destroyed the most imprtant company in the world: Saudi Armaco oil fasility.

    Both Hadi government in exile in Jeddah  and the seperatist in South Yemen need an honest broker. The South Yemenis are encouraged by the evil UAE who want to fragment the country. The Houthis must forget about ruling Yemen by force while the majority of the popolation is opposed to them. The evil Iranians just complicate the Arab problems and inflame the civil war. They should leave Yemen alone. 

    Yemenis need a caring nation that puts their unity on the for front. 

  6. 3 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

    First thing is do not Kill. Second do not Torture. Third is release as soon as you have achieved your main objective.

    He did kill and torture people in Djibouti. We have people here in Canada who were tortured with electric shocks. 

    This despot might even destroy Djibouti. Family members told us that he is getting more overweight and sick. He did not even prepare a heir apparent. This kind of despots will not realize their demise until too late. 

    This man is going to be many who died in prison in Djibouti. 

    By the way he wasn't estradicted from Ethiopia. He was lured by one of his freinds in Hawala office in Diradhaba and then kidnapped from there by Cumar Ghelle and brought to Djibouti.

    This brave man said: do not cry for me but take back your country from the despot.

    22 years is more than emough. Down with the dictator.

  7. It has nothing to do with Hagbad.

    It is all about confedence. The Sool/Sanaag community  have almost 40% of the Puntland parliament. To win the election they just need six more votes. 

    The condifent one spends money knowing full well he might win the presidecy, but the timid guy who lacks confident will not spend the money. 

    Yet, elections will expose a lot of things. 

  8. There are also large number of white Americans protesting against the police. People are probably broke and unemployed. Other than the first $1200 , no money was given to people. Here in Canada people were given $2000 dollars for 16 weeks (4 months).


    Brother Khadafi,

    that wasn't my  intention.   like Trump , I should not be equating the anti racist anarchists with the fascists who want real blood. 

    I was worried that people intentionally might try to equate Minneapolis riots to Somalis. Furthermore, as the Holac clip showed, the media has always sinister agenda by covering up these police abuses. . In this video we see police victimizing peaceful protesters while in Minneapolis all I saw was people torching businesses. 

    I just don't want bad publicity for our youth which might complicate their ability to get jobs in the future. I agree with you that systemic racism still exist in America. The best way to overcome is by building strong families and communities. Racism is mostly about economic power  and the black community must improve their lot by working hard and getting education. THere is no easy way out.



  10. beside conspiracy, there is underlying hot political issue burning inside  many people.  For the staunch Trump crowd,  it is do or die election. Despite the crimes of the police and sympathy people might have for the deceased , there is large majority of whites who strongly object this mayhem of torching innocent businesses in main street America.

    Furthermore, when you reach a certain age, you are disposed to social order than social justice. If these riots and destruction continues this summer, the silent majority might vote for social order than social justice and vote for Trump. It did happen in 1968 when America was engulfed by Vietnam war and other protests, and people elected Nixon.

    At the same time the far right will do anything to further their agenda including undermining peaceful protest. Also, the far left anarchists and the far right fascists have some overlapping interests like bringing down the established order. 12% of those who voted for Bernie Sanders voted for TRump in the general election of 2016. This were supposed to be leftist democrats.

    I hope Somalis in Minneapolis to stay away from these riot and support law and order. Besides, those of us who left our homeland because of war and anarchy should not encourage instability in our new homes.

  11. 7 hours ago, Holac said:

    Their agenda is total different. In the end,  many mindless black protesters also copied the tactics of the "undercover" protesters and started their own fires.

    Be careful to label what you see on TV. 

    Unlike , blacks or minorities, right wingers are people with no emotions.It is possible that people with sinister agenda at works. At the end of this riots , some even might label Minneapolis as Mogadishu, or Somalis as the main instigators even though few Somalis participate this. Yet, Somalis are the best to join any band wagon, whether its from the gulf or Afghanistan.

    Dhaan dad kale merel u rartay ayey iska daba galayaan. 

    The police system has lost some of its integrity and public service. Night club bouncers, police wanna be security offers and weak minded men are joining the ranks.Imagine four able bodied men can not control a drunk man with hand cuffs .

    THe police could be the reflection of society. Scumbags joining the force to be men.




  12. 23 hours ago, Suldaanka said:

    They need to aim for change in the system.

    The same thing is happening in black dominated police forces like Baltimore, Detroit or Dallas. Black criminals target their own community and the poor blacks. 

    In Chicago, every week 30 to 40 blacks are shot by other blacks. THey are lost tribes, and whomever flows their foot steps will suffer. Those who abandon the black culture will do well.

  13. I will ad the Karaash issue two things.

    First, money is in short supply in Garoowe these days,  and the Reer Bari,  traditionally do  not throw money around like those from MUdug.

    Second, those from Sool consume a large amount of the budget. When late president C/laahi Yusuf became president and left for Mogadishu, he was replaced by another Reer Bari who grew up in the South, the late Cadde Muuse. Xaabsade, who under C/laahi Yusuf had his own militia and millions , left to Hargeisa when the money dried up. 

    I heard that , another major reason is this C/laahi Deni guy is pushing certain reforms like holding municipal elections and those from Sool whose 90% of their land belongs to Somaliland will became homeless. 

    C/laahi DEni is paying the price or inaction  of  by C/weli Gaas and Faroole who didn't save for rainy days or build constitutions.


  14. THese elders are Al-shabaab themselves. 

    Al -Shabaab waxna uma dhino ayagana wax nooma geystaan.

    Is this Shariif Ahmed's elders falsely accusing government troops for murder without evidence?

    Cajiib, who ever became opposition to the government of the day joins Al-shabaab. Few years ago, Dayniile was ground zero for Al-shabaab , and today it is Balcad.

    Marba koox ayaa cimaamad soo xidhanaysa.


  15. This has nothing to do with police .

    It is an excuse by criminals destroying and looting businesses. 

    Police mishandling people is happening to everyone. Here there was a a man with medical issues and they left him hand cuffed inside police van where he died.

    Yet, anarchists are using police misdeeds to destroy business. 

    I will never cry for  the death of a criminal. 

  16. Peace Action,

    Thanks for the explanation. I guess our Ulema need to expand their horizon on certain sciences. 

    During Ibn Qayim era,in the 13th century,  Muslim scholars were well versed in medicine, astronomy and Fiqi in order to answer the questions of the day.

    Yet, I do remember very well that back home during the winter months the sun used to go down just after 5:30, and the summer time after 6 pm or even 6:30. 

    Suldaanka is saying they might have seen Venus. Before we dismiss what our people had seen , we need to investigate further. If the sun goes 5:35 or 5:45 back home it could make a deference.

    Also, back in Somalia, we usually have blue skies more than 300 days of the year. As a young man I remember sitting in the hill and looking the horizon just after the sun goes down. 

    Anyway, here we had our Eid today, Sunday  flowing the local Muslim community.


  17. The begging bowl continues. 

    One of the reasons Somali administrations refuse to create institutions, especially tax collecting systems is the foreign aid would stop if they earned enough operating revenue.

    Even here in CAnada, I was amazed when people were fighting with toilet papers in March during the hey days of the virus. With soup and water plentiful why would I need toilet papers?

    What did you expect from a world governor