With divided Vila-Somalia and lame president , the only winner in Djibouti summit will be Muuse Biixi. in Politics Posted June 14 The three Amigos plus one. The Djibouti summit, convened by dictator of Djibouti Omar Ghelle , is not expected to produce any positive results for the three leaders of Somalia, Ethiopia and Djibouti. If history is a lesson, the only winner in this meeting will be Muuse Biixi of Somaliland. This Djibouti conference , dubbed as reconciliation summit between Somalia and Somaliland by Omar Ghelle, is nothing but a distraction from the problems they face in their own back yard. Each one of these three leaders are facing major issues at home, yet their problems are different in nature. Let us begin with the Djibouti dictator Cumar Ghelle. After twenty-two years in power, Ghelle is not going anywhere and he is not going to change. 70 years old men do not change at the end of their life time. Just ask Donald Trump if he is willing to change his gangster methods even after becoming the leader of America. Nine years ago when Ghelle was in the process of changing the Djibouti constitution in order to rule for life, an Arab journalist asked him about the protest at home including his fight with former ally A/Rahman Boreh. Ghelle said, " in this part of the world ---meaning Djibouti---the only ruler people accept is either a dictator or prophet and I am not neither of them". Djibouti under Ghelle became the most expensive island in the world. Just like New York, a taxi cab ride from the airport is $35 dollars. Electricity bills are a cash cow for the family and would cost the average salary of a family, thus everyone is trying to steal the electric and bring the wires to charge their fan in the heat of the summer. With a country with almost zero precipitation or rain and abundance of burning sun, solar panels are prohibited by the state electric power monopoly. A very small group of mafia style families control everything. These dysfunctional families had kept everyone poor and dependent. When people protest demand justice and jobs, he would say: look at your brothers in Somalia, if you agitate in Djibouti, you will be just like Somalia. Be ware of what you wish. As we speak there are huge protest both in Djibouti and abroad. Even in Somaliland, certain media and political personalities have joined the chant of " down with dictator". Since a large segment of Djiboutians hail from Somaliland, Ghelle might be worrying for his future , thus he might be asking for a political cover from his in laws in Hargeisa. Abiy Ahmed got a one-year extension from the Ethiopian parliament, but his own outlook might have changed since last year. The evil TPLF are preparing for separation and some even thing that Abiy might grant their wish or crush them which is a lose lose situation in either way. He is also worried about the Djibouti agitations which might topple the dictator and bring new leaders with different priorities. Furthermore, the so called Asab port of Eritrea long predicted to be the new Ethiopian gateway port is nowhere to be achieved at the moment. With the Somali ports out of reach at the moment, Djibouti is the main life line of Ethiopia and Abiy is trying to prop up Ghelle and show his support. Furthermore, it was the Ethiopian regime that brought back the Djiboutian pilot that insigasted the protest. Also, This week, when the TPLF speaker of the Ethiopian senate resigned to give boast for the TPLF agenda, Abiy appointed a Omar Ghelle ally to that position. This summit could be new approuch for both Ghelle and Abiy. Farmaajo, the lame duck president, will gain nothing from this summit. I was among those who put a lot of trust and hope in Farmaajo to move Somalia to the right direction and pull this country out of the political hole once for all. I knew the task was huge and difficult to achieve, and I wasn't expecting for Farmaajo to fix things just eight months before his term ends. Yet, I was shocked to see Farmajo failing to lead the next agenda and been reduced as spectator while other are plotting with his prime minister. A divided house always fails. The dispute between the president and the prime minister is already surfacing to the public. Since early 2019, Farmaajo was preparing for two-year extension and to prepare for free election which might allow one man one vote. In order to achieve that goal major regions like Lower Shabelle, Jubbaland and Hir-Shabeele should be cleared and pacified from the threat of Al-shabaab. According to insiders these extension terms might not have include the prime minister. According to my sources, Farmaajo wanted to establish the Galmudug state government in the summer of 2019 and select a new prime minister either from the Unaka community or from Galmudug region and gear for two years of extension. Changing the prime minister after three years and re-configuring the government to the new political reality on the ground is not a new thing. It is a necessary re-alignment. Mr. Khayre decided to drag his feet and slow down the process including the formation of Galmudug. It took him two years to finish a process that could have taken three months. Now, the prime minister allied himself with the opposition and rejects any formula that might lead to one man one vote. Farmaajo and company argue that almost every region except Somaliland could take the election including Baydhabo, Marka, most of South west region, Jawhar and Beledwyine, Galmudug and Puntalnd. Yet, no election could be held without first agreeing with Puntland , Jubbaland and Hir-Shabeele. The international community or the sixth community of Somalia is insisting that in order for the election to be legitimate and quarrel free , all stake holders including regional governments and opposition parties must agree on reasonable and achievable road map.Since 2004, every Somali election was accepted by everyone and no one is willing to hold a disputed or boycotted election. Now with the quarrel of top leadership, a man without no constitutional authority to pass legislation in the parliament had initiated his own road map for the election. Since everyone is smelling the blood in the water, there will be more sharks to bite the top leadership. Not only Mr. Cabdi Hashi the leader of the senate initiates his own agenda, he recruited the heavyweights of quarrel politics of Somalia like C/raxman Faroole, Juriile and Fatmaajo nemesis Fartaag. The question we are all asking is why a president with zero relationship with Puntland, Jublaand , Mogadishu section of Unaka and segments of Galmudug ,would fight the only ally he had left--The prime minister. Some would say that end game fights are always expected just as Cumar Sharmaarke went against Hassan Sheikh and C/weli Gaas run against Shariif Ahmed. Yet, I am wondering what is the next move of president Farmaajo? Is he going to fire Khayre and appoint a new prime minister who could maneuver the land mines of the opposition?, does he have any plans to involve Muuse Biixi for the future? What could he possibly gain in Djibouti today? . Unless he got a surprise card in his sleeves, I do not see any achievable goals while eight months remained in his term. Certainly Abiy want Farmaajo to come back, but he could not help him at this stage of the game. Also, the useless international community who foots the bill always try to initiate useless meetings at the end of the road. They will squeeze you when you are down. Farmaajo, like Omar Gheelle and Abiy will smile to the camera and each will go home empty handed. The same cannot be said about Muuse Biixi. Biixi will gain from the weakened Farmaajo. At the beginning of his term and even two years later, Muuse Biixi was the most venerable among these four leaders. Although huge unemployment and stagnation has deepened the crises in Somaliland, the people in general adapted to the status quo since there are no any real changes on the horizon. Muuse Biixi waited and waited until the dysfunction of southern Somalia showed its cracks. Since many Somaliland members of parliament are double agents, Biixi knows the internal politics of Mogadishu before it even surfaces to the public. Hargeisa waxa laga haya war sheegaya waar " Laangadhuhu inta uu dhutiyayo waa in wax ka qaadana." My sources told me that Biixi is demanding the renewal of the old new deal signed in London and Istanbul. Unlike Addis Ababa, where he met Abiy Ahmed without preparation, this time Biixi is ready to get his agenda through in Djibouti. In order to get a huge cash , Biixi will demand commitment and grantee from the American envoy and others before he signs off any agreements. On the other hand, Biixi also knows that a contract signed with a lame duck president with a divided house in Mogadishu , will not be worthy of the paper it was written. This game of chicken supervised by the international community and leaders like Omar Ghelle will be among many signed for the last ten years. In that case , I do believe Muuse Biixi will be the winner of the fake Djibouti summit.