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Posts posted by galbeedi

  1. This is  the era of hard power. In fact, it was Armenia who started the war in July by attacking a region close to the Azeri gas pipeline and killed 17 men including a major general, a colonel and other officers.

    THey were probably instructed by another foreign power to siege Turkey in the caucuses. THe Russians can not help them separate from Azerbaijan since they themselves a lot of ethnic regions that would leave if given the chance.

    This is  the beginning of the rise of the Turkmen to take their place among the world powers. in the future many central Asian nations of Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan will join this huge land stretching  from Asia manor to the borders of China. 

    All they need is few more years of Erdogan or like minded leader.


  2. THere was never been one single fair election in Ethiopia and there will never be one. For Abyssinia to change,  both TPLF , Amhara and Amharized Otomo must give up power. 

    Abiy want to have dictatorial powers without winning an election. After crushing the TPLF , he will pit the Oromo against one another. The western Oromo (OLF) will fight a messy guerrilla war that will not achieve anything meaningful. The largest Oromo group of Arsi, Bale and Harrarghe, which are mainly Muslim ,will be subdued through intimidation and internal security purging. The third remaining Oromo who are Orthodox will ally with the Amhara.

    Sidamo might be left alone after gaining regional status. Somali and Affar will be subordinates through their puppet leadership. Then Abiy can fill the election boxes just like TPLF and rule the next decade.

    All that could happen if he crushes the TPLF. And that is a big if. Since it is tough to crush the battle hardened TPLF forces, it could be Abiy himself who would be thrown to the vultures to save mama Ethiopia from another upheaval. My guess is he will be replaced before he embarks more crazy adventures.


  3. There is a lot of speculation about the latest Trump appointments at the Pentagon. Some of them like Anthony  Tata are openly Islamophobic, while others are opposed American oversee interventions.

    Some are saying he has nefarious reasons for this appointments at this late stage. I thing TRump might use these remaining 70 days to pull US troops from Afghanistan, Somalia and Syria. For this pull out he needs yes men at the Pentagon.

  4. War is hell. 

    This is an Amhara war. WE all hope this war should be fought by armed men and innocent civilians be saved. The TPLF had probably prepared for this eventuality for many years ago.

    80% or more of f the Ethiopian officer corp is TPLF  They do not need to raid northern command, they have enough weapons.

    Mustafe  Cagjar, Abiy and Amhara are the real protagonists of this war.

  5.  I like Farah Macalin. He always opposed the TPLF led Ethiopia and their actions toward Somalis in the region. 

    I think Farah is missing that this nothing but Amhara war to gain more land and finish off the TPLF opposition once for all. After they crush the TPLF, the only main opposition will be Oromo. They will split the Oromo in three groups.

    10 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

    By the way, there is an active war in Western Oromia where a large section of the Ethiopian army had to vacate. Oromo are kicking out Amhara 'settlers'.  The very Amhara they support his attack on Tigray accused Abiy of being an Oromo extremist when it comes to Western Oromia. 


    If this Amhara has misgivings even in Abiy, how are they planning to recreate the old system? The way I see is that without the TPLF no one could stop them especially if they get a chance to rule.





  6. This is a tribal war. THere are a lot of non state actors, especially Amhara armed by Abiy. When you give weapons to clan or ethnic militia, you might reap what you saw.

    Other than Anhara propaganda No one knows what is going on. 

    THose with inside knowledge say, the idea of separation isn't a random thought that TPLF developed in the last few months. This was their plan B for a long time. I do not think the Amhara militia could defeat the TPLF fighters.

    Some even say that the TPLF is playing victim and only resort for self defense in the early weeks of the war, and will counter attack after the failure of negotiations and might even attack Gondar, one of the largest amhara towns in the north.

  7. .

    Breaking news:

    Somali regional president Mustafe Cagjar had dispatched Somali Liyuu police from Jigjiga. Furthermore, he made speech telling those who make unauthorized speeches on this issue using freedom of speech will be persecuted.

    I had talked to a freind who has family in Jigjiga and they confirmed the deployment of the Liyuu police. 

    The Somali Liyuu police and the Amhara Liyuu (special forces)  are the only military police dispatch to fight along the Ethiopian military. It sad Somalis will be dying to keep the Ethiopian empire that oppressed them for centuries. History will judge the Somali stooge in Jigjiga, Mustafe Cagjar.

  8. 3 hours ago, Holac said:

    t is time for the Democrats to reinvent themselves and come up with a different plan. I think this may be the last chance for them. 

    They forgot that despite the advent of progressive ideals of the left , Americans by far are people who still believe in God, country and family. You might mot like police until you meet the well armed criminals who victimizes you and everyone else. 

    Other than Obama care in  early 2009, Obama did nothing to improve the lives of the working class democrats. He was more concerned about Hollywood, same sex marriage and environment. A real republican shift to attract the working class who are more faith oriented will leave democrats with few elites, blacks and other minorities. If the republican party concentrates more on Hispanic votes and introduces serious urban black improvement plans, democrats will disappear.

    Soon  no one will win elections without Hispanic votes, and they will replace blacks and others as vice presidents. A freind of mine who is education consultant told me that the majority of children born in America in 2019 were Hispanic.  


    At the end the democrats campaign slogan was " Trump mishandled Covid -19" that is about it. 

  9. 7 hours ago, Khadafi said:

    he TPLF could have not achieved its decisive victory in 1991 without the support of its fellow tigrayan Eritrean EPLF. They are now without Eritrea locked and the only gate way is though denkalia.   

    without Eritrea, Abiy can not defeat the TPLF. 

    At the same time while Eritrea is supporting Abiy , they can't trust an Amhara led Hegemony which have dreams of taking back the Sea. blockade of goods could starve the TpLF unless Sudan keeps the border open.Who knows, the TPLF might have prepared for this and even have cargo planes to fly to Sudan.


  10. 4 hours ago, Khadafi said:

    Guys, weather we like it or not, Meles Zenawi left  behind human waiting for surgeion and the surgeon knowing exactly which parts to amputate.

    I think Meles finished off Ethiopia before he died. Too bad the Amhara couldn't read the writing n the wall. Ethiopia never had a fair election and it will never have unless it comes to the reality of people choosing their leaders . What boggles the mind is how can the Amhara resurrect the old Menelik of Ethiopia? or how did they convinced Abiy to resurrect Menelik.

    IT seems the TPLF and the Amhara know each other well. Even when the Otomo were agitating for change, the TPLF always talked about Neftengna.

    4 hours ago, Khadafi said:

    for the stability of Africas horn accepts  a Post-Ethiopian state.  Nation states as Oromiya,  Amhara, Soomaali-galbeed (weather to join somalia or be independent).

    THere is no other choice. It is slow moving Yugoslavia.

    In 1991 while Mikhail Gorbachev was the leader of the soviet union, Boris Yelsin, the president of the Russian federation, declared independence and finished of the Soviet  union. If things get ugly and Abiy runs around without a mandate, the Oromo should prepare and declare independence including the capital Addis.

  11. The biggest problem is the Tigray are united this time than ever before Abiy doesn’t even have a minuscule Tigre people I his side. . This has to be a quick war or else the false empire that should have been dissolved  long  ago will be gun. 
    The Serbians of Ethiopia, the Amhara had prepared this one , but it will finish them off this time.

  12. 2 hours ago, Somali-Nationalist said:

    Really interesting, What is the position of the Somali government in the conflict?

    Farmaajo is still scared of Ethiopia and keeps begging them to involving every minor issue. Last week Abiy Ahmed  called C/laahi DEni to Addis and asked him to support Farmaajo. Why?

    While Abiy's stand for Somali unity is commendable, at the moment he doesn't offer much to Somalia. Some people even believe that the days of the preacher Abiy are numbered.

    Personally I do not mind the clash of Amhara and Tigray. These two evil regions have a lot of blood in their hands. THe biggest threat For Somalia is if the Oromia region bordering us becomes unsuitable . A million refugee will change the while country and the first cities that will become foreign citizen majority will be Borama, Hargeisa and Boosaaso. 

    As long as the war stays in the highlands , we will be fine.



  13. This might not be a civil in the sense of effecting all of Ethiopia.It will be a forceful preservation of Abyssinia. The Iraqis forced the Kurds by flexing their muscle and stopped  the project by force. The Spanish punished the Catalan separatists. It is a natural progression of events that has no other options.

    THe alternative is for Abiy Ahmed to resign and get a new leader acceptable to the TPLF, and Abiy will never give up power. His mother told him that he will be the seventh king of Ethiopia when he was a child. With the Amhara behind him he won't stop.

    This issue could have been settled early if Abiy acted forcefully when they banned the federal government entering Tigray.

    On the other hand,  Ethiopia should have been desolved like Yugoslavia long ago.

    We have to wait and see what America does. They  either depose him or will allow war and dissolution of the old empire.

    I hope that the slow man in Villa-Somalia will now understand that Somalia doesn't need Abiy, and Ethiopia. They need us now, and we should use our well earned clout to get our agenda.

    Nin asagiiba dhooqa ku jira maxaad u hoos tagi.