galbeedi

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Posts posted by galbeedi

  2. Posted

    In June, the Laascaanood conflict will be six months.

    Since the start of the demonstrations up to today, Somaliland forces are losing ground, and despite the propaganda from Hargeisa things are getting from bad to worse. The Somaliland forces had abandoned the so called British border area long ago. The SSC forces control Tukaraq which about 75 KM to Garoowe. They control the historical town of  Taleex to the south, Boocame and between. SL forces had left these towns for the last few months and the chances of return are almost nil.

    In any apprising where local people want to control their destiny, the only way to deny their aspirations is to overwhelm them by brute force for a while until.. The other option is  been expelled as history has shown. There are logical conclusion that indicate the eventual defeat of Somaliland forces.

    1-The war is taking place within the homes of SSC forces.

    This is a huge advantage when the battle is taking place at the backyard of the locals fighting for their freedom. The country side is hostile to Somaliland forces. Two days ago when the war broke in Tuulo Samakaab which happen at the supply line 50 KM from Laascaanood, the locals took up arms and fought the SL forces from behind. Another deadly factor is unlike other clans, every sub clan of the Garaad community are armed to the teeth to defend from their own clans just in case. When it comes dark at night the locals are coming from under the ground, and no knows if these are nomads or the SSC forces.

    2-Both forces have almost equal amount of arms.

    While Somaliland forces have some long range artillery fire and rockets, there ae limits to that. Traditionally, wars among Somalis usually lasts few months with each group exhausting their bullets and rockets. The SSC forces also have mobile technicals and other heavy weapons, especially the latest additions from Puntland clans. Furthermore, in Puntland every tribe has the right to import weapons and pick up trucks for their own protections. The Garoowe based government might control politics and the purse, but they do not interfere with trade and weapons procurements among clans. Every one has the right to bear arms. These actions might weaken the power of the government, yet everyone understands that despite their pronouncements, these governments are in transition and do not represent real Somali government. We all know that  the last real government of Somalia was in 1991. Kacaankii barakeysnaa dawladi kama dambeyn ilaa maanta 2023. Reer vPuntland arintaas wey ogyihiin, waana sobota Qabaa'ilku hubkiisa u haysto, just in case

    3- Their supply line are almost equal.

    Somaliland had 20 years to arm, build and stockpile arms, and has some capacity to supply fuel and other logistics, but the SSC also has a supply line from Puntland and the H..rti. heartland. A group called Si.wa..ron from the other side of the Indian Ocean, who had never participated in  any conflict, had brought hundreds of guns, armored cars and men. THese are not landlocked communities which you could block their supply.

    Furthermore, in terms of man power, there are 15,000 men in Laascaanood. Everyone is trying to make his mark. The arrival of military veterans from the diaspora and other places have already changed military strategy. Despite what Youtubers and others seeking publicity say, these commanders no longer worry about about Goojacade. They are taking their time. They are targeting Tuulo Samakaab, Yagoori and even the outskirts of OOG. These mobile units pass through their own countryside and rural people for information, food and more. Goojacade forces are considered sitting ducks and soon will be seeking way out.

    So, if you can't overwhelm the locals, can't deny them supply and with thousands of manpower, the coming results will be nothing but defeat.

    I did listen today the failed warlord Muuse Biixi revisiting those events that took place 35 years ago. Like most failed politicians he has to find someone to blame. His perfect target seems to be Morgan who retired from military activity 25 years ago. He lives Morgan's house and that is probably making him uncomfortable at night. He declared that those who bombed Hargeisa were all Puntlanders. Like a suicider,  he even declared that " If Somaliland borders are not respected, then there will be wars targeting other parts of the five Somali regions". Is he going to attack Ethiopia or hire Dahir Calasow and company to bomb Nairobi? I don't know, but I would advise neighboring countries to be very careful.

    This week the Ethiopian intelligence had removed some wounded SL officers from hospitals in Addis after doctors informed that men with bullet wounds had arrived and cared in their hospital. The doctors were inquiring whether these men were wounded in Oromia area or in DDS. The Ethiopian Intelligence were upset that officers from SL were brought to Addis whiteout their knowledge.

    Since this was a message to Hargeisa let me spell out.

    Stop killing your youth for a war  that can't be won in someone else's homeland.  Are you waiting until the war comes to OOG? The battles of the last three days were not about capturing Laascaanood, but opening and securing the supply line with deadly results.

    I know Muuse Biixi is delusional, but where are the others? Is this about chest bumping and hubris?

    This war is already been lost. Please save your kids from destruction and save the meagre resources for water and health care.

    Qoom markuu dumayo, balaayaa loo bidhbidhiyaa.

    Ragow kibirka waa lagu kufaaye Kaa Ha la Ogaado.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  4. Posted

    The facts are simple. The only way Somaliland was able to stay in Sool was with the blessing of the SSC community.

    The war is moving to the supply line. Somaliland army had to cross a hostile 100km inhabited by J Siyaad.. The last of loyalists from the Sool might abandon their allies soon.. As expected if war breaks in Yagoori and between, what is the reason to huddle in the caves of Goojacade.?

  5. Posted

    The whole political parties of Somaliland and parliament are corrupt to the bone. That is why no one expects any meaningful changes. Not one single member of parliament is demanding a resignation, nor is the slow talking dinosaur called C/raxman Cirro.

    Raggii Ma adiga ka hadhay?

    Waxaa dhiig iyo dhib dhacaya, ma jirto cid dhahaysa, waar maxaa Talla ah sidani inama anfacaysee?

    • Like 1

  6. Posted

     

     He doesn't have the power to dominate nor to negotiate. Yet, he is In front of the microphone weekly saying nothing news. When shallow unrepentant warlords take charge this is the result. He is dysfunctional tyrant.

    Furthermore, this is the typical Kulmiye dirty tricks to create conflict among clans.

  8. Posted

    it could be a lot of unemployed elders including Faroole, C/xaashi and many more in upper chambers. This could be the end of an era. it has been since 2000, almost 24 years of elders being bought and sold by members,

    • Like 1

  10. Posted

    The good news is the third party candidate Mr. Sinan Ogan is further right of Erdogan. His supporters want Syrians expelled and more nationalist and conservative than Erdogan, so the chances of them going CHP is almost very law.

     Sultan Erdogan will finish his second term as president and will retire after that. Turkiye was number 17 or 18 in terms of GDP ten years ago, but in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) they are number 11 and by end of 2023 they could edge France and take #10. Also, geopolitics changes in the middle east will even make Turkey more prosperous and powerful. Furthermore, the Turkic State of central Asia could even grow more because of their location and natural resources.

    As Erdogan said, this could be the century of the Turkiye.

    Folks, the world is changing.

    For world PPP in 22025 here are the top ten:

    China

    USA

    India

    Indonesia

    Japan

    Germany

    Brazil

    Russia

    Mexico

    France, UK Turkiye.

    One of those three will be #10.

    North America couldn't compete with EU, China and others unless they create a common market. First use one single currency like the dollar and then unite. You have three unique countries in USA, Canada and Mexico. America got the dollar and being largest economy, Mexico got the labor force and Canada the huge resource. 

     

     

  11. Posted

    1 hour ago, Illyria said:

     

     

    I am curious: On what did you base the percentages?

    The percentage might not be right, but a friend of mine from Bari, Boosaaso told me that the kings community are minority in the city. Traditionally, when a place transforms itself from small town to big city, it attracts all kind of people. Furthermore, since the business of the port (Imports) is decentralized and not monopolized you will have a diverse community of traders. 

    In Garoowe itself, the people of SSC have probably more residents than FAroole folks. If universal voting comes to Puntland, the Faroole boys will be history. That is why it is do or die for them.

     

     

  12. Posted

    56 minutes ago, Illyria said:

    3+ million diaspora votes are yet to be tallied, and reported, and are expected to tilt in Erdogan's favour. .

    That is a huge number. Turkish European diaspora is  probably overwhelmingly for  Erdogan.

  13. Posted

    It is somehow strange election. Erdogan had 52% , yet he kept going down close to three points. Someone is probably manufacturing things in Istanbul area where Erdogan had strong showing before. 

  16. Posted

    He has visited the tomb of Attaturk, but this guy isn't a rigid Kemalist. He is more of social democrat of the left. 

    Furthermore, even if he wins he couldn't turn back Turkey to the old ways. 

  17. Posted

    Zaylici is in conflict with Biixi. The dispatched minions are no longer listened. The Awdal youth are ready. Judging from the diaspora movements, it has been decided that  negotiations with the regime will not bear any fruits. The late Calu Kjaliif AHN tried every thing. WE believe that a threat force is the only solutions,

    I don't expect major conflicts in Borama city in the coming days, but the conflict will move to the countryside and roads connecting to  towns by late summer.

  20. Posted

    I think I am late on this. I thought the debate was still on, but this pictures in Bari had showed that election in Puntland is foregone conclusion. No turning back.

    HSM spoke too soon. 

    Ololihii doorasha diidku waa fashilmay.

  21. Posted

    I think things had changed and Erdogan will Inshallah win tomorrow.

    two or three weeks ago, the foreign media was that the opposition leader is ahead 10 points or five points, now they changed their tune by claiming a neck and neck horse race. I expect the media to under count his vote always.

    What gave me hope is everyone says his party AKP and the alliance are way ahead in the parliament around 45%. Besides, the Kurdish party Al Huda has huge support in the south east. Despite the PKK, most Kurds and conservative Muslims.

  22. Posted

    With almost zero opposition and with the blessings of the sixth community (Beesha Lixaad), the stars seemed to be aligned for  Hassan Sheikh Mohamuud. We all jumped about the bandwagon of the war declared on Al-shabaab. We watched his globetrotting travels to gain support for his war plans and wished him for success.

     

    All he needed was to stay on the message and seek the support and the goodwill of the Somali people. Yet, in this part of the world , the former leader is always better than the last one and HSM 2.0 is really worse than the first HSM of  2012-2016.He defeated a popular president and sidelined a dark horse from Puntland hell bent to take the whole thing without apologies. Some people would even insist that the man that was defeated in May 15 2022 election wasn't  Farmaajo but C/laahi Dani.

     

    Two regional presidents from Jubbaland and Putland teamed up to defeat a fellow D block member. Many commentators in this forum had argued that that contest between Farmaajo and Deni and HSM wasn't about tribal groupings. It was pure power struggle. HSM with the work of Mohamed H. Rooble, Galmudug, Jubbaland, SNM Habro and others came on the top. Some had wrongly thought that HSM would rule with common sense and reach out others. To the surprise of everyone he had other plans.

     

    I knew HSM was bitter before the elections due to the humiliations done to him by the Farmaajo lieutenants. They disbanded his demonstrations and even shot at him, they denied boarding planes at airports and so on. In return he spoke like a gangster who has no hope of becoming leader again. He disparaged the Eritrean government and their efforts to train soldiers, he called his sub clan for help, he encouraged regional leaders to reject the federal government. Lo and be hold he suddenly became the king again.

     

    Rather than heal the wounds of the election, he put salt on it. here are some of the moves that results or will result in his future demise:

     

    1- He created a rubber stamp cabinet and delegated their jobs to unelected allies. He hired his family members and clans for most of the pressing issues of day. His own daughter is not only the  senior adviser to the president, but almost every meeting with  foreign leader can't not take place without her presence. She might have even replaced the hapless foreign minister.

    2- He went to Djibouti and formed an illegal tribal grouping without realizing  the consequences it might lead to . While the Somali tribal energy is a fuel that must be kept away from flammables, he ignited it with deadly results. If You were born and raised in southern Somalia it is difficult to gage the plots and conspiracies of people like Omar Geelle.

    3- He declared war on Al-shabaab by relying to tribal muscle and empowered Sanbloolshe and company to take charge while sidelining the army leadership.

    4-He hired Dahir Calasow as his adviser on tribal issues and even security matters.  To add insult to injury, he hired a small time Youtuber and political hacker as the auditor general of the nation in charge of government oversight and the financial control of the government.

    5- He embarked record setting global travel landing four or five times in world capitals including Washington, Djibouti, Abu Dhabi, Kampala and other places, always his bowl in hand and begging.

     

    His actions or inactions results small victories , but far more disasters for many regions across the country.

     

    When the war in Hiiraan was progressing in the fall of 2022, I thought, I said that if this thing doesn't conclude in the new year expect big problems. We are well ware that  tribal energy can only be bushed as far as possible while the money is flowing and emotions are high. Consistency, discipline and ridding for the long haul isn't one of them. They have already exhausted and with no money in the pipeline , expect stalemate. There are even rumors that Mahad Salaad had made a clandestine agreements with Al-shbaab leadership to hold off bombing campaigns in the capital and offered them un return  to stop the offensive in Hiiraan and Shabeelle.

     

    By joining Omar Geele and his corrupt family, HSM had put the country in a dangerous path. By cozying up with separatists and empowering the meddling of Omar Geelle in Somali affaires, he bitted more than he could chew. The war raging in Laascaanood is the result of the Djibouti meeting. By hiring a known gangster like Dahir Calsow who extorts money from people by illegally recording them through his gangs in Nairobi and other places, while inciting tribal, HSM had passed all decency. The desperate Hargeisa Maamul of Muuse Biixi even sent money for Calasow to arrange a fake grouping called Ir. Sa..le to help fend off the SSC campaign in Laascaanood with zero results other than few free loaders rooming Hargeisa for few days.

    His record setting travel hasn't brought any meaningful support. He is jumping from one frying pan to another, from Dubai to Doha, from Kampala to Asmara with mixed results. Furthermore, the world bank had threatened to with hold money for future programs unless he fires the Youtuber he sent to deal international financial institutions.

     

    His latest moves  to borrow money  from the world bank was put on conditions that require consensus among regional leaders. By acting as the leader of Banadir, HSM didn't expected any push backs from others. Long ago he decided to ignore anything north of Gaalkacayo to lowyacado. Since there is zero opposition in Mogadishu he ruled with decree while his daughter is supervising his moves. If I may, I have seen before leaders who surround themselves with family members. Usually it is two reasons: either for paranoia like Omar Geelle or illness. When Ahmed Siilaanyo suffered stroke in July 2010, he was sideline and all operations were transferred to close family friends. Hersi Gaab, his son in law Cawil Morgan and his wife took over. After he took power last summer HSM was seen with some bruises in his eye which some people said he might have fallen due to undisclosed decease. I am just wondering.

     

    Laascaanood had changed the landscape.

     

    War is always the great equalizer. Nothing will be the same after this. Few months ago the political landscape was deferent. C/laahi Dani was the loser and many people in Puntland were lining up to not only replace him but also humiliate him. The Puntland clan dynamics were simmering under the water and everyone kept their weapons just in case someone might move against them. Biixi was shooting peaceful demonstrations left and right in Hargeisa with deadly results. The opposition was beaten with bullets and intimidated. Rather than keep demonstrating until election is held, they gave up trying to fight another day. Who knows that might even come sooner than we expect. Both the opposition and the parliament had refused to find a way to prepare for a new leadership to tackle this life changing issue. This week he came and talked and talked like small dictator while women and free loaders were clubbing in the chamber. He didn't say anything that could bring peace or change the status quo.

     

    After Laascaanood.

     

    AS we speak the Somaliland army is pinned in Goojacade. The SSC is working to isolate and cut the supply line. No one understands the Somaliland goals anymore. The so-called British border is no longer attainable. They are not  in Tukaraq, Boocame, Talleex or in between. So why are they sieging a city that doesn't want anything to do  with Somaliland project. I used to watch in war movies about a general sacrificing his soldiers for defending a very small hill. Insiders told us that Biixi is waiting for  two things.

     

    First , a third-party group to interfere and move his soldiers to a save place without threat coming from SSC. The East Burco community is refusing to accept this deal for fear of being attacked from the east.

     

    The second option  is that since Puntland is the base and behind the scene backer of SSC it must be targeted. This plan is the brainchild of Omar Geelle  to replace Dani. Two results are expected from this move against C/laahi Dani. First,  to create chaos due to conflict among those who support Dani and a small group agitators  from Garoowe. A family member of the Faroole family was the guest of Omar Geelle last week and our Djiboutian friends had observed him in Kempeski Hotel in Djibouti. The second result is that if the first one is successful,the  plan is to finance the Faroole clan which is favorable with secessionists. The bullet fired from the Villa Somalia Masjid during Friday Qudba is part of the plot, but also had some personal interest from HSM government. Whatever the intension of HSM was, he failed miserably. On one hand he is begging Puntland to sign off to get the badly needed loan money from the world bank while trying to interfere with the Puntland election by backing the Faroole group horses..

     

    By speaking the same language as the president, prime minister Hamza Barre had empowered Puntland as the biggest opposition of his government and a great obstacle than cannot be overcome. I don't blame premier Hamza for fully supporting his president, but he could have spoken in different tone. Sometimes, it is strategic to speak like a good cop and bad cop. He should have used a conciliatory language and then embark a trip to Garoowe to mend fences. This Hamza guy needs good advisers to find some balance in his office and that of the president. 

     

     C/laahi Dani was a lame duck and loser six months ago, but today he is not only  the  only leader capable of checking the unlimited power HSM had accumulated in Mogadishu, but the future challenger of the Damujaddid group. People in Puntland might not like Dani, but they hate like most of us the unholy evil alliance concocted in Djibouti which is totally against the interest of Somali people everywhere including Somaliland. The hapless secessionists do not realize that the biggest game in town in Djibouti is the port, and sidelining Berbera is the biggest one among them. 

     

    Also, elections in Puntland means elections in Somalia within three years. The first year is gone, the next one probably will finish while chasing Al-shbaab in Hiiraan, and the fourth year is nothing but electioneering. What we have is two more years. By judging the outlook of the Somali people including those in Mogadishu, HSM and company couldn't win any election by one person one vote. Thus, Puntland could refuse the old ways election where elders choose members. HSM has a big dilemma. Yet, he has options. 

     

    Dani should have pushed the democracy thing when he started in his first year before embarking his national campaign, yet most people in Puntland thing that getting rid of the system where 66 men selected by the elders must be retired for good. Besides, while first time elections are always challenge, the results fair and lead to enthusiasm among the public which is priceless. The best elections of Somaliland were the ones held in 2003 and 2005.  Mudug is on board, so is Bari and more than half of Garoowe. The only group agitating is the new " Unaka Leh" in Garoowe led by Faroole. I saw the Shire Abgaal fellow double talking. What he doesn't understand is that the prince can not be a king while the king is alive and kicking. He was close aid of Dani through the years, and his only chance is if Dani leaves the scene. I don't want to be unfair or anything but these guys from Garoowe , both Shire Abgaal and Cawad seem to be orphans or people that do not command good image. Besides, I never liked Faroole and company.

    Folks, Laascaanood had changed a lot including Awdal. 

    We are not willing to create a new Somaliland when SSC is out. This project is dead. It was dead man walking when they crowned the unrepentant warlord Muuse Biixi.

    • Thanks 1

  23. Posted

    On 5/10/2023 at 12:31 AM, maakhiri1 said:

    Deni will get easily another 5 years, cuz of how he managed SSC, and extreme power grab of SOMALI gov by HSM

    Exactly. C/laahi Dani is the man.

    The failed policy of Muuse Biixi had empowered C/laahi Dani. On the other hand with HSM going rogue and discarding rules governing institutions by hiring Dahir Calasow and Guutaale to be the main players, Puntland should be the only Maamul for checking and balancing the regional government of Mogadishu masquerading as a federal government. I might even add that the people of Mogadishu had disappointed by his actions. 

    Folks, just wait my incoming article about the whole thing this weekend.

    I got a lot of information. There was even a sighting of Faroole family members in Kempiski Hotel in Djibouti. We have people in Djibouti.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

  24. Posted

    Ciid Mubaarak guys, a late one sort of.

    I think the Awdalites  have a great potential to declare their own state and leave this project for good.

    This week I did talk a friend in Canada who had extensive conference call to one of the elders who was a member of the delegates to negotiate with the SSC Garaads. He reached  Yagoori first and then he went to Jigjiga to meet C/risaaq Khallif and some Garaads . After those meeting he said to major things.

    First SSC is gone and it is not coming back. So, the only thing Muuse Biixi is looking for a third party to relocate the forces peacefully without the threat of forces from SSC. While the SSC Garaads are open to the idea the militia commanders will not allow SL army to take any weapons.

    The second thing is Biixi and company are preparing for a reduced Somaliland of the future. This elder was selling to those who talked to him an idea whose train had already left. He said the Habro leadership is open to re-negotiate a new Somaliland.

    On the other hand we are preparing a total dismantling of this project which had expired long ago. It is too late For C/raxman Zaylici and company to acknowledge the obvious at this late hour. couple of hundred millions of foreign aid has been pouring to Somaliland since 2010 and we couldn't get even few millions for all these years. No roads, no fishing ports or even a hospital while taxing people from Lowyacado to Boorame to the bone dry. 

    They were building tribal capacity not state or institutions. Thank God for the SSC for exposing the dead clan project who wasted 30 years. The only thing to brag is few hotels in Hargeisa and the big buildings constructed from the looted millions. The two richest men in Hargeisa are Hersi Gaab and Mohamuud Hashi, one was living a welfare house in London for 20 years, while the other was small tech shop owner and Hawala clerk.  They looted all that money for seven years when Siilaanyo was sick.

    From Djibouti to Jigjiga, from Hargeisa to Mogadishu Somalis have failed to build or restore a functioning Somali state. We have seen democracy in 1960-69, we witnessed a well functioning military government from 1969-1991, but we have never seen anything like this.

    • Like 1

  25. Posted

    Mustafe Cagjar became the first leader to abolish the Somali Liyuu. Today his cabinet voted to dismantle the force. He should have waited few weeks before other groups dismantle theirs . If Affar and Oromo flow suit we might have peace for the first time.

    From Oromo, TPLF and Amhara had trained over 100,000 paramilitary force. It is the only place in the world  where a regional government have that kind of force overlapping with the national defense forces and presidents instead of governors.. This is the legacy of TPLF. Somalia also copied that formula with both presidents and regional military.

    Kab iyo xaarkeed waa la isla tuuraa. Who would abolish the Somali regional presidents and their clan militia?