With almost zero opposition and with the blessings of the sixth community (Beesha Lixaad), the stars seemed to be aligned for Hassan Sheikh Mohamuud. We all jumped about the bandwagon of the war declared on Al-shabaab. We watched his globetrotting travels to gain support for his war plans and wished him for success. All he needed was to stay on the message and seek the support and the goodwill of the Somali people. Yet, in this part of the world , the former leader is always better than the last one and HSM 2.0 is really worse than the first HSM of 2012-2016.He defeated a popular president and sidelined a dark horse from Puntland hell bent to take the whole thing without apologies. Some people would even insist that the man that was defeated in May 15 2022 election wasn't Farmaajo but C/laahi Dani. Two regional presidents from Jubbaland and Putland teamed up to defeat a fellow D block member. Many commentators in this forum had argued that that contest between Farmaajo and Deni and HSM wasn't about tribal groupings. It was pure power struggle. HSM with the work of Mohamed H. Rooble, Galmudug, Jubbaland, SNM Habro and others came on the top. Some had wrongly thought that HSM would rule with common sense and reach out others. To the surprise of everyone he had other plans. I knew HSM was bitter before the elections due to the humiliations done to him by the Farmaajo lieutenants. They disbanded his demonstrations and even shot at him, they denied boarding planes at airports and so on. In return he spoke like a gangster who has no hope of becoming leader again. He disparaged the Eritrean government and their efforts to train soldiers, he called his sub clan for help, he encouraged regional leaders to reject the federal government. Lo and be hold he suddenly became the king again. Rather than heal the wounds of the election, he put salt on it. here are some of the moves that results or will result in his future demise: 1- He created a rubber stamp cabinet and delegated their jobs to unelected allies. He hired his family members and clans for most of the pressing issues of day. His own daughter is not only the senior adviser to the president, but almost every meeting with foreign leader can't not take place without her presence. She might have even replaced the hapless foreign minister. 2- He went to Djibouti and formed an illegal tribal grouping without realizing the consequences it might lead to . While the Somali tribal energy is a fuel that must be kept away from flammables, he ignited it with deadly results. If You were born and raised in southern Somalia it is difficult to gage the plots and conspiracies of people like Omar Geelle. 3- He declared war on Al-shabaab by relying to tribal muscle and empowered Sanbloolshe and company to take charge while sidelining the army leadership. 4-He hired Dahir Calasow as his adviser on tribal issues and even security matters. To add insult to injury, he hired a small time Youtuber and political hacker as the auditor general of the nation in charge of government oversight and the financial control of the government. 5- He embarked record setting global travel landing four or five times in world capitals including Washington, Djibouti, Abu Dhabi, Kampala and other places, always his bowl in hand and begging. His actions or inactions results small victories , but far more disasters for many regions across the country. When the war in Hiiraan was progressing in the fall of 2022, I thought, I said that if this thing doesn't conclude in the new year expect big problems. We are well ware that tribal energy can only be bushed as far as possible while the money is flowing and emotions are high. Consistency, discipline and ridding for the long haul isn't one of them. They have already exhausted and with no money in the pipeline , expect stalemate. There are even rumors that Mahad Salaad had made a clandestine agreements with Al-shbaab leadership to hold off bombing campaigns in the capital and offered them un return to stop the offensive in Hiiraan and Shabeelle. By joining Omar Geele and his corrupt family, HSM had put the country in a dangerous path. By cozying up with separatists and empowering the meddling of Omar Geelle in Somali affaires, he bitted more than he could chew. The war raging in Laascaanood is the result of the Djibouti meeting. By hiring a known gangster like Dahir Calsow who extorts money from people by illegally recording them through his gangs in Nairobi and other places, while inciting tribal, HSM had passed all decency. The desperate Hargeisa Maamul of Muuse Biixi even sent money for Calasow to arrange a fake grouping called Ir. Sa..le to help fend off the SSC campaign in Laascaanood with zero results other than few free loaders rooming Hargeisa for few days. His record setting travel hasn't brought any meaningful support. He is jumping from one frying pan to another, from Dubai to Doha, from Kampala to Asmara with mixed results. Furthermore, the world bank had threatened to with hold money for future programs unless he fires the Youtuber he sent to deal international financial institutions. His latest moves to borrow money from the world bank was put on conditions that require consensus among regional leaders. By acting as the leader of Banadir, HSM didn't expected any push backs from others. Long ago he decided to ignore anything north of Gaalkacayo to lowyacado. Since there is zero opposition in Mogadishu he ruled with decree while his daughter is supervising his moves. If I may, I have seen before leaders who surround themselves with family members. Usually it is two reasons: either for paranoia like Omar Geelle or illness. When Ahmed Siilaanyo suffered stroke in July 2010, he was sideline and all operations were transferred to close family friends. Hersi Gaab, his son in law Cawil Morgan and his wife took over. After he took power last summer HSM was seen with some bruises in his eye which some people said he might have fallen due to undisclosed decease. I am just wondering. Laascaanood had changed the landscape. War is always the great equalizer. Nothing will be the same after this. Few months ago the political landscape was deferent. C/laahi Dani was the loser and many people in Puntland were lining up to not only replace him but also humiliate him. The Puntland clan dynamics were simmering under the water and everyone kept their weapons just in case someone might move against them. Biixi was shooting peaceful demonstrations left and right in Hargeisa with deadly results. The opposition was beaten with bullets and intimidated. Rather than keep demonstrating until election is held, they gave up trying to fight another day. Who knows that might even come sooner than we expect. Both the opposition and the parliament had refused to find a way to prepare for a new leadership to tackle this life changing issue. This week he came and talked and talked like small dictator while women and free loaders were clubbing in the chamber. He didn't say anything that could bring peace or change the status quo. After Laascaanood. AS we speak the Somaliland army is pinned in Goojacade. The SSC is working to isolate and cut the supply line. No one understands the Somaliland goals anymore. The so-called British border is no longer attainable. They are not in Tukaraq, Boocame, Talleex or in between. So why are they sieging a city that doesn't want anything to do with Somaliland project. I used to watch in war movies about a general sacrificing his soldiers for defending a very small hill. Insiders told us that Biixi is waiting for two things. First , a third-party group to interfere and move his soldiers to a save place without threat coming from SSC. The East Burco community is refusing to accept this deal for fear of being attacked from the east. The second option is that since Puntland is the base and behind the scene backer of SSC it must be targeted. This plan is the brainchild of Omar Geelle to replace Dani. Two results are expected from this move against C/laahi Dani. First, to create chaos due to conflict among those who support Dani and a small group agitators from Garoowe. A family member of the Faroole family was the guest of Omar Geelle last week and our Djiboutian friends had observed him in Kempeski Hotel in Djibouti. The second result is that if the first one is successful,the plan is to finance the Faroole clan which is favorable with secessionists. The bullet fired from the Villa Somalia Masjid during Friday Qudba is part of the plot, but also had some personal interest from HSM government. Whatever the intension of HSM was, he failed miserably. On one hand he is begging Puntland to sign off to get the badly needed loan money from the world bank while trying to interfere with the Puntland election by backing the Faroole group horses.. By speaking the same language as the president, prime minister Hamza Barre had empowered Puntland as the biggest opposition of his government and a great obstacle than cannot be overcome. I don't blame premier Hamza for fully supporting his president, but he could have spoken in different tone. Sometimes, it is strategic to speak like a good cop and bad cop. He should have used a conciliatory language and then embark a trip to Garoowe to mend fences. This Hamza guy needs good advisers to find some balance in his office and that of the president. C/laahi Dani was a lame duck and loser six months ago, but today he is not only the only leader capable of checking the unlimited power HSM had accumulated in Mogadishu, but the future challenger of the Damujaddid group. People in Puntland might not like Dani, but they hate like most of us the unholy evil alliance concocted in Djibouti which is totally against the interest of Somali people everywhere including Somaliland. The hapless secessionists do not realize that the biggest game in town in Djibouti is the port, and sidelining Berbera is the biggest one among them. Also, elections in Puntland means elections in Somalia within three years. The first year is gone, the next one probably will finish while chasing Al-shbaab in Hiiraan, and the fourth year is nothing but electioneering. What we have is two more years. By judging the outlook of the Somali people including those in Mogadishu, HSM and company couldn't win any election by one person one vote. Thus, Puntland could refuse the old ways election where elders choose members. HSM has a big dilemma. Yet, he has options. Dani should have pushed the democracy thing when he started in his first year before embarking his national campaign, yet most people in Puntland thing that getting rid of the system where 66 men selected by the elders must be retired for good. Besides, while first time elections are always challenge, the results fair and lead to enthusiasm among the public which is priceless. The best elections of Somaliland were the ones held in 2003 and 2005. Mudug is on board, so is Bari and more than half of Garoowe. The only group agitating is the new " Unaka Leh" in Garoowe led by Faroole. I saw the Shire Abgaal fellow double talking. What he doesn't understand is that the prince can not be a king while the king is alive and kicking. He was close aid of Dani through the years, and his only chance is if Dani leaves the scene. I don't want to be unfair or anything but these guys from Garoowe , both Shire Abgaal and Cawad seem to be orphans or people that do not command good image. Besides, I never liked Faroole and company. Folks, Laascaanood had changed a lot including Awdal. We are not willing to create a new Somaliland when SSC is out. This project is dead. It was dead man walking when they crowned the unrepentant warlord Muuse Biixi.

Exactly. C/laahi Dani is the man. The failed policy of Muuse Biixi had empowered C/laahi Dani. On the other hand with HSM going rogue and discarding rules governing institutions by hiring Dahir Calasow and Guutaale to be the main players, Puntland should be the only Maamul for checking and balancing the regional government of Mogadishu masquerading as a federal government. I might even add that the people of Mogadishu had disappointed by his actions. Folks, just wait my incoming article about the whole thing this weekend. I got a lot of information. There was even a sighting of Faroole family members in Kempiski Hotel in Djibouti. We have people in Djibouti.

Ciid Mubaarak guys, a late one sort of. I think the Awdalites have a great potential to declare their own state and leave this project for good. This week I did talk a friend in Canada who had extensive conference call to one of the elders who was a member of the delegates to negotiate with the SSC Garaads. He reached Yagoori first and then he went to Jigjiga to meet C/risaaq Khallif and some Garaads . After those meeting he said to major things. First SSC is gone and it is not coming back. So, the only thing Muuse Biixi is looking for a third party to relocate the forces peacefully without the threat of forces from SSC. While the SSC Garaads are open to the idea the militia commanders will not allow SL army to take any weapons. The second thing is Biixi and company are preparing for a reduced Somaliland of the future. This elder was selling to those who talked to him an idea whose train had already left. He said the Habro leadership is open to re-negotiate a new Somaliland. On the other hand we are preparing a total dismantling of this project which had expired long ago. It is too late For C/raxman Zaylici and company to acknowledge the obvious at this late hour. couple of hundred millions of foreign aid has been pouring to Somaliland since 2010 and we couldn't get even few millions for all these years. No roads, no fishing ports or even a hospital while taxing people from Lowyacado to Boorame to the bone dry. They were building tribal capacity not state or institutions. Thank God for the SSC for exposing the dead clan project who wasted 30 years. The only thing to brag is few hotels in Hargeisa and the big buildings constructed from the looted millions. The two richest men in Hargeisa are Hersi Gaab and Mohamuud Hashi, one was living a welfare house in London for 20 years, while the other was small tech shop owner and Hawala clerk. They looted all that money for seven years when Siilaanyo was sick. From Djibouti to Jigjiga, from Hargeisa to Mogadishu Somalis have failed to build or restore a functioning Somali state. We have seen democracy in 1960-69, we witnessed a well functioning military government from 1969-1991, but we have never seen anything like this.

Mustafe Cagjar became the first leader to abolish the Somali Liyuu. Today his cabinet voted to dismantle the force. He should have waited few weeks before other groups dismantle theirs . If Affar and Oromo flow suit we might have peace for the first time. From Oromo, TPLF and Amhara had trained over 100,000 paramilitary force. It is the only place in the world where a regional government have that kind of force overlapping with the national defense forces and presidents instead of governors.. This is the legacy of TPLF. Somalia also copied that formula with both presidents and regional military. Kab iyo xaarkeed waa la isla tuuraa. Who would abolish the Somali regional presidents and their clan militia?

Allah ha u naxariiste Cigaal waxa uu yidhi in late sixteies, " Irir Awarkaan ku kacsanayey" after he joined late president Sharmaarke (AHN). Reer Xamarku waxay yidhaahdeen , " Soomaliland Gambar leeg aa lagu Fadhiisiyey noo" markii ay Dahir Calasow magan u noqdeen. This fellow came to our neck of the woods few years back and visited Quljeed town in Awdal. THey said they were related to Dahir Rayaale subclan called Reer Dudub and even went to the tomb of the dead clan father.

Amhara should be always the losers. If I were Abiy Ahmed, I would have made English the official language and send the backward language of Amhara to the dustbin of history.

We welcome the disbanding of the Liyu police including the Somali Liyu. These forces, especialy the Somali forces haven't protected anyone. During Abdi Iley times they were brutal, but at least they proteted the region from outsiders. They can't fight Oromo forces or Affar forces, but they kill the other Somali clans with impunity. Besides, these Somali Liyu are nothing but a clan militia who are known to loot, put checpoints within towns and killing farmers. DDS soon might be even disbanded as a Somali region. They build nothing other than their clan towns and share the yearly budget among themselves. Qabiil qaran ma noqdo. Why anyone would be part of fake Somalinimo intended to rob, loot, kill and oppress others. Ha laka diro oo

Ustaad Oodweyne, Baardheere Bridge was built decades ago. The Somaliland bridge was completed just six months ago with millions of dollars from the Somaliland development Fund. Someone stole the money and built a shady bridge.

THere is no need to blame this for Abiy Ahmed. I do believe that Musatafe Cagjar himself might have volunteered for this. Today, Mustafe Cagjar, yesterday Cabdi Iley, and in 1948 their ancestors joined Haile Salasie than remain with the British and get the independence together with other Somalis. The Affar regional leader said he will use the fund to build a cultural place for their Suldaan

Khadaafi, Thanks for your analysis and information. I thought the Adwa thing was like 1 July or 26 June. If ethiopia can't not even agree to their national day, then they are in deep trouble. As you mentioned, it seems Abiy Ahmed must fully Oromize in order to rule. Ethiopia can't be stable unless the Amhara are reduced like a normal citizens. THey pushed for war and refused the peace between TPLF and Abiy, but the main issue is Amhara and their allies, the Guraghe control Addis city from business to culture and language. . In Ethiopia the death of hundreds of thousands doesn't change much. In terms of dictating to others, it all depends the players and the attitude of Somali leaders. Two low level officers showed up in Garoowe and Hargeisa and the waring nomads stopped killing each other. If Somalis keep looking overlords to subdue other Somalis, the Ethiopian domination will continue. Another issue is the actions of the Americans, especially the democratic party leadership. Traditionally they have huge fear of making mistakes in foreign policy. It was Hilary Clinton who delegated the decision to appoint Nuur Al maliki of Shite section than allow the inclusive Iyad Alawi who was Shia but had big support, which eventually created ISIS and the Sunni insurgency. It was Clinton who abandoned Somalia in 1994 and deputized Meles. Who knows, they might even convince Abiy to change his Somali unity attitude and return to the old policy. It has been also a tradition to invite Ethiopia. In the modern times, it started in 1948 when the OG nomads decided to join emperor Haile Salasie and will continue unless we got different leaders. I agree with you that Ethiopia is weak to care for others, but the Somali nomads knows nothing else.

If you refuse to talk to your brother to resolve issues, you will be accorded to the justices of the stranger. Reliable sources indicate that the American government had decided to transfer the Somali problems in the region to Ethiopia just like Bill Clinton did in 1994. I am not talking only the Laascaanod issue, but almost everything. The Laascaanood clashes kept going for two weeks with no meaningful negotiations until the Americans by way of Ethiopia entered the scene. With hundreds of deaths from both sides, two low level colonels from Ethiopia showed up and everyone jumped up. It was the SSC elders who clamored for outside powers to intervene, yet sometimes, you better be careful for what you wish. The preliminary news coming from Addis Ababa indicate that the Laascaanood issues will be resolved in a way that is not desired by the players of the conflict. THose from SSC want Somaliland forces to vacate their tribal homeland up to Oog and later proclaim a regional state under the federal government. Somaliland want to pull the army in a near village and eventually resolve the Sool issue with Garaads by promising greater autonomy, but always under the umbrella of Somaliland government. None of the will get what they desire. Well, you can't always get what you want. The SSC Garaads would have better served if they have accepted a negotiation through Somalis, either by president Hassan Sheikh or elders. By accepting a foreign power to lead the negotiations, they opened the door for unknown results. Reliable sources say the idea of a regional state for SSC is non starter for Ethiopia, Somaliland and even the international community. The Ethiopian government had decided that the main reason of the conflict and the resolutions of the Laascaaood issu rests with leadership of Muuse Biixi. They believe that the removal of Muuse Biixi whose term already ended four months ago could be the biggest solution of the problem. Abiy Ahmed has already a grudge against Biixi after the later refused to fulfil the unity promises he made in Addis few years with Farmaajo and Abiy. They believe that a new flexible leadership from Somaliland could be a recipe for the Laascaanood conflict and the future negotiations with Somalia. Five or six different groups had traveled to Addis or are their way to reach there soon. The SSC Garaads. Speaker C/rashiid Khallif by of Jigjiga to Addis Somaliland elders who went to Sool. The Somaliland opposition leadership. Ugaas C/rashiid of the Greater Awdal community both in Ethiopa/Djibouti and Somaliland. Boqor Buurmadow and his people. Finally, Biixi will join them. As I said the outcome of the coming Shir in Addis will be difficult to swallow for all involved. Most Somalis think of conflicts just an angry tribal skirmish that could be ignited without at any moment without thinking the consequences. Yet, after they create misery, death and destruction, they run to Addis or Nairobi to be baby sitted and given what they desired as a candy to children. Here is the the tough pill to swallow for both. For the SSC the Addis pill will very bad to swallow. Here is some: First , the SSC will forget the so-called regional state. The guns will be silent, Somaliland will go some distance, the city will be calm and they will be waiting the outcome of the Somaliland internal change. In the meantime, there won't be any offensive from their side. The truth is after the early skirmishes, most of the offensive came from the SSC side to push back the Somaliland forces. The Ethiopians might send military observers to hold cease fire and the fragile peace. As soon as the guns became silent the booming business from Hargeisa, Bebera, Laascaanood and Garoowe will return. Second , it will difficult to tell those young men who sacrificed a lot to accept the status quo. In this scenario, there could an uprising between the Garaads and the fighters who are mobilized throughout the region including Puntland. Joining Puntland isn't an option for most of SSC. For Somaliland the poison pill is mostly directed to Biixi. He will be forced to vacate the former house of Morgan. For many in Hargeisa leaving Sool and returning to Oog is a disaster that will finish off Somaliland for good and bring the war to Hargeisa. That scenario will be delayed for now , but Somaliland will not be the same. Top leadership of the Ethiopian government believe that the future economic development of the region depends infrastructure development, connections and trade in the Horn of Africa and will not accept a small tribe in the north to keep hostage of these future growth. Bebera, on the biggest ports in the region is empty. One might even ask, why the Emirates keep holding this huge port while doing some developments?. If there is no major international trade coming here, why hold it? I think they want to keep these ports for themselves while destabilizing others like Aden in Yemen. So, asoon as the leadership changes in Somaliland the negotiations with the south will begin in earnest. And that consolation will keep SSC to stay with this project. Remember, most of the demands of Khaatumo, especially from the camp of late leader Cali Khalif were to stay with Somalia and develop a credible system in Somaliland. In conclusion, the guns will be silent, Somaliland will keep away from Laascaaood, Biixi will disappear from the scene, but there won't be any SSC regional government, but a city will be waiting changes from different powers in the region including HSN and Hamza( Sheikh Cumar and Sheikh Shakir).

This conflict is full of propaganda on both sides. The city of Laascaanood is spread out. Most of the damages took place in the east and west. Real fighting took place about 8 days in two weeks, yet caravans are heading to Ethiopia. Displaces people could be cared in Puntland and come back as soon as the guns become silent. Some among SSC are using these displaced people as Propaganda to get the UN atension. It is easy to mislead helpless people. Even if they got refugee cards, it takes more than ten years to get any chance of migrating abroad. THe useless Youtubers keep inciting war. Soon the war will end and these communities will live side by side. If these trend continues Sool will be empty of people.

This is fishy. I don't think two weeks of war could produce 40,000 people. That is almost 50% of the population of the city. Besides, Garoowe is at stones throw from Laascaanood, why travel all the way to DDS? The lady mentioned about the Jesus and G..si communities being registered . Those communities left the Oromo and Affar lands and comes to DDS as refugees, but they are based in Siti region and Harowo which are far away from the Sool border. This war has many players including Biixi who is mixing it up with Hargeisa politics. The youth are the victims as usual

After all the dead and shelling, nothing will be the same. Baala Xoofto, forget about Laascaanood and let us save Hargeisa from the incoming mess.

If the leader of Somaliland was Cirro or Rayaale, the Garaad community could have stayed with Somaliland. If your buddy Muuse just vacated the city and kept the army 30 km from the city and had given the Garaads breathing space ,no one would have died and things could have been different. I have seen the big police stations, the governor's office with big rooms and furniture and computers. Certainly Somaliland had spent a lot in Laascaanood .In Awdal the governor uses hotels or city council offices, because Cali Mareexaan sold the British built state house. Milionis were spent in Sool to bribe with bad results at the end.

We all hope sanity. That is what the supermajority of the locals believe. But we the diaspora are totally different. After Muuse,Somaliland should be reformed and re-energized.

We have to get rid of Muuse first and try to create something different. The original Somaliland supposed to be a loosely managed clan federation. Regions supposed to elect their governors and locals to administer their affaires. What we got know is the most centralized system in the world, the worst communist politburo was much better than this. THe police chief is from another region, the governor represents the Hargeisa based president with zero administrative offices in the province. THe same goes with those in SAnaag ot togdheer. You can't build ports or roads since all taxes go to Hargeisa. Imagine you are begging another hostile clan for developments. THey consider your growth a threat. No matter who comes to power, the system must be changed.

When I say Hargeisa I don't mean the regime, but those who formerly based their like Garaad Jaamac Garaad Ismaciil. Somaliland is a threat that is almost eliminated or watched carefully due to the war, but Puntland based politicians didn't ditch yet the idea of greater Puntland.

THere are conferences and Zoom meetings in the diaspora for the last few days. If Khaatumo could generate this kind of support Awdal could gain support from almost all Somalis. THere are some in HAG who fear a new D block state and others who might have some minor grudges against the H...rt, but an Awdal uprising will be supports universally by Somalis EVery person that crosses from Lawyacado has to pay $32 dollars. The coastal region is blocked, we can't build ports or roads. They have blockaded us economically for 30 years. THe injustice in Awdal is ten times bigger than SSC. Unlike SSC, we don;t have a buffer zone or a safe place to organize. we in triangle of Djibouti, DDS and Somaliland. Also, unlike SSC we have been disarmed 30 years ago. Somaliland paid the Khaatumo militia and allowed them to have their guns.

off course he will return. What could Biixi do? arrest the speaker who disagreed with him. It will be another huge headline if goes to jail. Muuse is politically dead by now. The only thing left for him is to save his family from sanctions and more condemnation. And one more thing, I do believe that the leadership of the new SSC/Khaatumo will be dominated by those who are based in Hargeisa or not allied with Puntland. Of course Puntland supports the independent aspirations of the Garaad community, but the idea of future annexation didn't disappear yet.

I think he is doing a good job. He burred Muuse Biixi to the dark pages of history. He blamed everything on Biixi. He will come back to Hargeisa and finish him off for good.His mission is more deadlier than the bullet, and his opposition party Waddani is probably coordinating with them. The SSC not only defeated the Muuse Biixi, but indirectly helped the hapless opposition who were defeated both physically and politically few months ago.

With the Darwiish castles logo in the letterhead, the Khaatumo consultative committee is really well organized and professional compared to the 32 years old Jamuuriyad. THeir message hasn't changed since day one. I think the Laascaanood resistance has won a great victory altrady. Furthermore, Abukar Baalle, the Somali UN envoy has put a dagger on Somaliland. He visited our town from New York few years ago, and when he finished his speech, jokingly, I told a friend from Mogadishu that this guy was the first well qualified and educated speaker from that part of the country. Soon we will see the faces of the Biixi kids who torture people in Hargeisa, especially women. Some for having blue flag in their bed, others for visiting MOgadishu or just bad mouthed the dear leader. If there is a sanction list, then police chief Dabagale must be on the top of the list. This is the man who shoots civilian to kill and claims that they were responding stones thrown to police. Also Caateeye, the young defence minister sent by Omar Geelle should be on the list. Ciidanku gacan Bir ah ayey ku qabanayaan waa hadaladiisa.

We are still waiting the facts, but a great tragedy has taken place in Mogadishu today. Unverified reports say 14 members of the forces ( don't know yet if they were Macasley or regular troops) fighting Al-shbaab who have been nursing from the wounds they sustained in Hiiraan fighting, were killed by Al-shbaab in a safe house in Abdulaziiz district. Does anyone heard about that tragedy? This HSM guy is either will go big or bust. Nothing in between. .

Then why a full attack today? In fact, today's war was the heaviest ever. Before there were skirmishes and shelling, but today, close to a brigade from Somaliland attacked Laascaanood to take over the city and overwhelm the defenders. It was a real war with Ak47 and machine with thousands of men participating ( Gacan baa la isla tagay dagaalka maanta). Muuse Biixi wanted to crush the Laascaanood resistance and occupy the city before the visit of the American ambassador to Hargeisa and claim to be fighting terrorists. Reliable sources say that the Somaliland forces have been repulsed and defeated with heavy loses. I have been told that the Garaad community members from Puntland BSF who left Boosaaso and others who were formerly trained with Danab forces who have higher fighting experience than the usual militia had inflicted the biggest damage to Somaliland. More than anything Somaliland lost the messaging and the reason they are fighting in Sool. The message of the Laascaanood people is simple, relatable and understandable. They say," We are caucusing to decide for our future; we will negotiate when the gun on our head (Somaliland forces) are removed from our town". And what Somaliland say. "Laascaanood people are Somaliland but they have been taken over by terrorists; we will resolve the issue with negotiations but we have to shell the town to defend the forces; we are sent elders yesterday, but today will not leave the city". It is confusing and misleading. No wonder the whole Somali world is siding with Laascaanood.

The heavy coverage of the Laascaanood conflict seem to be subsiding these days with no major movements fron the fronts. While we mainly cover the Laascaanod side of the conflict due to the unjust bombardment of Somalialand forces to the civilian infrastructure, it is important to hear from the other side. By that, I don't mean talking to the unhinged and out of touch guys like our own Oodweyne and Xaaji Xanjuf types . but others who are more or less neutral and always side to the peace due to stakes they have in Somaliland, So, I did talk to a guy who hails originally from Awdal, but born and raised in Hargeisa. He had relocated from the diaspora, built a house and moved his family back home. So, I asked him both the conflict, Hargeisa politics and the future according to his personal experience. Galbeedi: What did you hear from Somaliland about the war in Laascaanood these days since you have extensive family connection in Hargeisa and beyond? Somaliland Guy: We are at the end of the conflict and within days things will get quiet. Galbeedi: What makes you think like that? today was the 14th day of the war and the guns are still roaring from both sides. Somaliland guy: Somaliland might claim this to be a war between the state and Reer Sool, but as most Somali conflicts had shown, it just another clan conflict, and these kinds of wars last mostly four to six weeks maximum. By now the Sool forces might have dwindling stocks of ammunition and soon they might run out of bullets. Furthermore, for the last decades, most Somali conflicts conclude in a stalemate. No one is defeated completely which is the main reason national governments failed to take real shape of governing. Galbeedi: Most people believe that the only way this war will end could be the relocation of the forces from Laascaanood especially the Somaliland forces. S.Guy: Despite the importance of the Laascaanood conflict, no major war has taken place so far. Sooner or later these forces will move away from each other, but it all depends about the actions of Garaad community forces who are loyal to Somaliland. Galbeedi: I thought everyone said that most of the Garaad community forces allied with Somaliland had already moves and joined the local forces. S.Guy: No, that is not totally true. THere are still well armed Garaad community forces led by colonel Mahad Cambaashe and others who are not involved in the shelling of the city, but who are in stand by mood at the moment. Everyone knows that he has the most mechanized units among Somaliland forces in the area. Galbeedi: what do you mean by stand by? are they waiting orders? S.Guy: No, unlike many people, there is no major confrontations now. The locals try to push the Somaliland forces away as much as possible, yet despite some movements in Some fronts, everyone is around Laascaanood. Colonel Camaashe is waiting how the political moves take place and like everyone he is " Wait and see mood". So, he isn't risking much and he sees the Somaliland side as only defending themselves. What we are hearing from people in Hargeisa is that Somaliland hasn't used its power so far including its allies in Sool. Galbeedi: So, what is the next move? We have seen Muuse Biixi is in disarray by issuing false and conflicting statements? S.Guy: He doesn't have the ears of the Garaads in Laascaanood, and the ministers he sent to Laascaanood had failed to resolve anything. It is the speaker of the parliament who is talking to the Garaads and he is sending conflicting messages to Muuse Biixi in order to score political points. Furthermore, Biixi closed the doors of the elders five years ago and they both don't trust each other. Galbeedi: Do the elders had the capacity to resolve the issue a this moment after the destruction of the city and the bad blood between the two? S.Guy: The Somaliland elders had been sidelined by Muuse for a long time, and the only things these guys have mastered is how to milk cash from the government. They will create an enterprise that will feed both elders from Laascaanood and Hargeisa, they understand each other more than we think and the issue is moving to the elders and the back and forth will continue. At the end the Somaliland forces will move away from the city by some distance , we don't know how many kilometers, or permanently move to Adhicadeeye. Galbeedi: After the relocation, what could be next? S.Guy: Well, It will be like any other frozen conflict in the region. The recriminations and the squabbling will move to Laascaanood and Hargeisa. The Sool community will face each other for good and no one knows how their debate will take shape. But the bigger debate will take place in Hargeisa. Galbeedi: Is the opposition demanding elections as usual? S.Guy: Waddani is trying to ride the Laascaanood conflict, but they had already failed big time and the more these things go on, Biixi will stay and make sure both WAddani and UCID are two parties among the dozen. Galbeedi: Personally, I think Waddani has gained some respect in Sool region and other places by being alternative to Biixi in war and peace. S.Guy: This Cirro guy is always one day late and short one dollar. As soon as the uprising of the city begun, he could have jumped and landed in Laascaanood to reassure people and become the point man by sidelining Biixi and taking charge of the issues, but as usual, he was weak and went hiding. Finally, when he saw the statements of the Americans and international community he decided to come forward and ask few guys (Mohamed Abiib, Ina Galaal, Barkhad Batuun) to make strong statements. He could aggravate the issue as much as he wants, but the three-party election is finished. The first election will be among all parties. Galbeedi: So , did you the tensions going high in Hargeisa? S.Guy: nothing will be the same after Laascaanood. This whole project has to be re-evaluated totally. Hargeisa seems to be how Mogadishu was in 1988. The corruption is out of bounds, the wrong doing, the injustice, the looting, the clan animosity, the greed has surpassed any limits. The decent people stay away from the government, and only the losers, the swindlers and the worst among society join the government. The millionaire guy who isn't hungry is selling expired medicine, yet he is ahead of you at first line in the Masjid. Furthermore, no one trusts anyone. The good news is still there are some good people in Somaliland who might repair the ship. Galbeedi: Do you see any elections taking place? S.Guy: No at the moment. In this kind of environment elections will create instablity in Somaliland. The opposition is so hungry and in the recent Somali politics, tribes do not give way to others but keep them down until the end. Some will tell you that many projects, including the Somaliland one, will probably end thanks to the demise of TPLF. With the incoming econmic integration of the horn, it will be difficult to sustain isolation. Galbeedi: Did you see any nig moves from the region lately? S.Guy: The Abiy Ahmed led integration was stalled by the Ethiopian war and by Kenya which had misgivings about Ethiopia. Now Eritrea, Kenya and Ethiopia are the same page. HSM has no choice but to join, and Djibouti couldn't stop the train. Galbeedi: Did you see HSM winning the war against Al-Shbaab? S.Guy: No. HSM waging war against Al-shbaab is false. After the invasion of Al-shbaab from south west , Ethiopia had realized that these forces havd crossed from Hiiraan and posed a direct threat for the first time. THey called Laftagaren and the governor of Hiiraan, not the Hir-Shabeelle leader. They decided to eliminate the threat from Hiiraan and tapped Cali Jayte and Sanbloolshe to lead the effort. It is an Ethiopian ptoject which asked the Americans for air cover to clear the border area. The munitions were provided by Ethiopia and soon will end. Furthermore, I don't believe that the southern elites don't understand or are willing to pay the sacrifices to build state which is much bigger than money or personal gain. He got 5,000 men from Eritrea, yet he decided to arm clans and that tells me everything. Galbeedi: I see, but they had made some success so far, don't you think? S.Guy: Time will tell, but judging the way things are moving, we will be talking about Hiiraan the same time next year. Also, here we are talking about one clan waging war and taking credit while a large number of other clans Hiiraan are either on the fence or fighting with Al-shbaab. Here I see one clan thinking they are Hiiraan and that will end in disaster. Furthermore, that clan will be working soon to separate Hiiraan from Hir-shabeele peobably insitigated by none other than Sanbloolshe. Let us leave it there.