With covid out of the blue my die hard habit of visiting the mosque and then the local somali cafe here in our nordic countrey after work has not gone away.Yesterday while I was sitting and snipping coffe our local news guy and our clique of coffe and politics lovers had a discussion. I usally stay silent. Everyone was from his cosy living conditions in a nordic countey was talking about "Xassan Sheekh said that" Farmaajo said that. Who said what and who and the tit for the tat discussions went along. I left the table and gave an excuse to my so called "intellectual friends" and went home. No Somali intellectual have the bolds or the chutzpa to say how Somalia is. Nobody wants to talk about the pink big elephant in in the room. Its a bizarre world amongst us Somalis. It has been 10-12 years since Amisom came to Somalia. When I last visited Somalia in 2019 and met Khayre and the speaker of the parliament I myself did not have the courage to say how things were. I had breif "isku sawir exchange with him" What I saw was a government limited to Mogadishu, A government commanded by Amisom. The serpant and the terror group Al-shabaab had full controll of the countrey. Every road leading from Mogadishu to either these bantunistans or should I say maamul-goboleedyo, the road was cut of. If you wanted to go to Baidoa then you had to take a plane. Imagine, the president of Koonfurgalbeed not being able to drive to Mogadishu. I sat down with a friend of my father who was now in his 80-ties and a general and who was a prosecutor in the military tribunal and who by chance was my mentor and neighbor where I live had a dinner A devout man of god from sunni sufi order raxmaaniya order but a loyalist to the core to what ever government that was in power. He was delighted to see me and and me him. While security cleared me we talked and we exchanged some religous books He began as a soldier and then a policeman. I will not say further in order not to give any clues who he might be. I directed my questions to him over dinner and he had the boldness and truthfullness to say how things were. He literally said we are encircled. They the terror group al-shabaab are now biding their time and have even infiltrated the government. He even said, "xxx, ababa, dont you even realize that Somali society have been bitten by their venemous bloody ideology that you may see somalis who unwilling and who they themselves do not know about it have al-shabaab values. Then it struck me, Everyone in the Somali cafes would criticise the government but no one even dared to mention al-shabaab. Some even fused our beutiful religion with some al-shabaab tendencies. Nothing is permanent. D-day came to Afghanistan when the americans departed and everything collapsed. I called my xxx who was a minister at that time and xx said that every somali minister was watching the events unfolding. Rooble called the cabinitte and asked the bizarre question "how is the state of the federal government army". A minister with no portfolio and who is known for cracking jokes answerd "what the xx are you talking about, we cant even go to xxxx within Mogadishu". Everyone laughed, then came the silence and everyone went home, That day everyone sent corrupted money to kenyan banks. Somalia is dictated by roadmap layed out by western governments and the UN. Shaykh Sharif, Xassan Sheekh, Farmaajo, It does not matter, the next president has no mandate except either to heal the countrey or be power hungry grabber like farmaajo but he has to follow the road map. Atleast under Xassan Sheikh the bantunistans that of maamul goboleedyo were created. The whole federal system was created in order ease clan tensions. Have we Somalis seen Somalis in galmudug demand clean water and free education from their clan elected leader? No?. Demonstrations against al-shabaab? People even talking about them? The venemous murderous terror bandits that hail from a ofshoot of the wahaaabiya are now well established. While americas influence is declining and Ethiopia weakended to even have a say about Somalia, the paradigm shift in the world is being felt in Somalia. Last month ago news came out that Amisom will be dismantled into another form, a limited one where the Somali army would play bigger picture. Here comes another pink elephant? The same somali army that fractured over clan-lines over Farmaajos attempted failed power grap`?- In conclusion D-day might come to Somalia. The sad thing is that the wahaabiyada terror group Al-shabaab swore allegiance to an arab who probably has problem pointing out Somalia on the map. The taliban though never did that. Waale yabaaye, no one is willing to talk about the pink venemous elephant.In order for FGS to succeed they need to adress the terror group. They need mobilise popular mobilisation units just as the Iraqis did when they eradictated a more blood thirsty monster, Daacish. Who ever gets elected needs to understand he is not a president of a free state. Logic dictates that with large foregin troops on your land, albeit to help you, you are limited. Al-shabaab have shown that they can stay latent, their ideology after the 30 years of mayhem are drawing recruits. They have been able to regroup. They are not stupid or dumb. Their strategy now seems to bid their time. Indeed its a bizarre world. As proverb says "Nin aanan yaabin ayaa yabaay"

I am sorry to burst your ability to conventrate your analysys on the three city tribal seperatist republic, call Somaliland call it Isa-@@k land, what ever you want but for the most Somali people your issue is a non-issue. A deadly insurgency is going in southern Somalia where a fragile federal government is starting to make it its baby steps. Facts on the table is that it is recognised. Weak as it maybe, and lacks the security that Somaliland has an undeniable fact is that with recognition comes dictations on the internal affairs of a countrey. I dont know if can get rid of yourself with propoganda or sixirka of the SNM but as a person who knows what goes on in the federal government of Somalia, its a well known secret that hotell bills that Muuse Biixi sleeps in when he pays a visit to Addis, or the donations to Somalia that should go to to north is approved and stamped by Mogadishu. Thats the reality. The hey day when the north could point the finger and say to the world "hey, we have security while the south is it chaos" is gone. The FGS, weather I like it, or not is a fully recognised state. What made the leaders in three city- somaliland project go nuts is how they were delegated to to be informal maamul goboleed. Forget the pr-campaign, the truth is that leaders of Hargeysaa met evert month the FGS and deliver the bills in secret while other bantunistans do not. You might be a kid fed by hatred but belive, thousands of Somalis from Somaliland are in mogadishu doing buisness. Its been 30 years of zombie minded saar beating of "aqoonsi" but the upper class knows thats gone. That project failed. What they now want is power sharing agreement. Somalis will be Somalis. Analyze your habits, your whole analysis on the elections came down to Khayre forbidding Dubai. As Somali nationalist or Somali-land nationalist your concern should have been why on hell is Dubai trying buy up all ports in Africa? From Massawa to Assab to even foes in Puntland? Why? To keep black somalis down. Even the somaliland parliament understood this.

Another clan-obsessed documentary about three city states, fuufu-lands, bubu-lands call them what ever you want. Lets be honest to each other. Its a tribal enititey trying to to be seperate while other somali tribes in somaliland do not even agree with them. Nobody is dumb. The only thing I could say to to them as a southerner is that I hail them for the peace they have.

What can you say, Ilaahay xishoodka nagama qaato. We approching 15 may, SYL days, I bet the founers would curse these people from their graves if they knew that their struggle have been hijacked by opportunists. Personally, This is the reason its to hard to make a commentary on Somali politics, I dont want to poke the dead but I have said it before, in 2019 Mengistu the short midget amxaro khabiith was interviwed by VOA amharic and was asked by his legacy. He said "I did not turn the countrey into a Somalia". While Mengistu locked the weapons depot and shot Amxaaro generals who wanted to arm the Amxara people, Somalia then president was arming clans just in order to stay in power. That says a lot does it not? You wander into Somali cafes and the news is about what Farmaajo say, What did Xassan Sheekh say? or the cursed seperetatists 3 town bantunistans leaders say. The truth is that no one actually says the bloody truth. We have serpant, a venemous one, a terror group that no one discusses about and who are lurking in the bushes and who swore an allegiance to an arab who doesnt even know where Somalia is. Even the taliban did not do that. We have a government that could be examplified by a old man nearly dying if he doesnt get his foregin oxygen. Nobody asks what will happen if the foregin oxygen ends. Nothing is permanent. We saw that in Afghanistan. The federal system with its 4.5 formula was a way to cool down tribal tensions. We do not even a public that demands clean water, free education from their "fufu-lands bubu lands" and what ever damned maamul goboleed thet come from. Lets be honest to each other. Somalia has indeed taken a step forward but it has regressed to its pre-colonial mindset.

Hopefully this election will be the final tuned clan-democracy. We need ideas, ideologies, and acountability. May God assist us on the 15 may.

Tragic and bizarre whats happening. I fully agree with deputy minister of planning Drs Fahma Axmed Nuur. She and other intellectualls were one of the writers of the distuurka of federalism. Its ironic know hów it was backfired and has been used. All somali stood stand upp against the injustice happening.

The professor residing in Savannah have uncovered facts that we knew in Southern Somalia, Galbeedi Uweys al Baraawi was a himself a diciple of Sheekh.sayady-sadaati Cabdi raxman Seylaci was born in Mogadishu and his offshoot Zeylaciya begins from warsheek up to Djabouti. No one is perfect, and no one can deny Sayidkas zeal for his anti-colonialism. Certain tribes concluded aliances in the north with the British just as Salaxadin Ayuubi was at the beginning the fighting the "islamic emirates" that were sheilded by the crusaders. He had no choice and from a geo-political view point his war upon the Zeylaciya after they rejected his efforts for a common jihad can be understood. Whats the problem is though how the kacaan and speciallly D-folks supressed information about how Somalis resisted colonialism. Wthile the british had his eyes on the docks and was doing missionary works the Italians were building roads, factorties and inviting landless italians to settlle in Jowhar. In a concencus in the 1950 italians were 40 procent of total population of mogadishu. The unuka and banaadiri resisted were brutallt massacred. Who was Shaykhs Uweys diciple? the famous one, he was from the unuka and his son was one of the members of 13 SYL. A brief example, the saho or tsahi people are just like us, cushitic and nomadic, The Italians succeeded with brutality convert 20% of them. Why did they succeed their but not in Somalia. A post-colonial stuy regarding Somalia, one without bias needs to be done. I am personally proud of the Sayidka but for the VOA to call Idajaa whom I consider to be a modern form of the dark ages, travellers who worked by storytelling, Idajaa for the first time saying Sheikh Uweys conspired with the Italians was schocking. The old kacaan D propagandanist did his outmost the blacken the shaykhs reputuation now that Idajaa is old fraild. Yaab!

Dahir Aweys rejected Al-aqeda alliance and could be compared to a taliban while godane was the one who led al-shabaab to join an international alliance of terrorism. Becouse of his actions no one can negotiate with them. Thats not qabil thats a fact.

This is the shamefull VOA interview Idajaa makes his horrible accusations.

In highly criticised interview made the famous abwaan Idajaa who has for 40 years used his mouth brag about his beloved Sayid made an interview regarding why Sayidka killed Sh-Aweys. Before Idajaa would say "The sayid saalixiya sufi order did not mean it and some extremist dervishes did the act". 2021 He finally said that Shaykh Aweys who spread Islam the Qaadaria with its ofshoot uweysiya into Malawia, tanzania, Kenta, Congo, he said that the martyr had agreed with italians to be buffert with Italians and was there for agent for colonilists. Indeed Shaykh Awes al barawi is without a doubt the greatest Somali , second is Axmed Gurey. He was the one who gave the fatwa that the mug of a infidel is naajis. After the Italians had bombed Hamarwayne the banaadiri tribes were conquered by the Italians and Sheeikh aweys went into deeper side of Somalia. I strongly say that he is the one and only Somali that Somalis have written about as historical academic sources. His 40 diciples were spread south and north. Regarding him being a colonial stooge, Shaykh Aweys belived in passive resistance and withholding the faith when Italians where in a hurry with missionary work. In Eritrea the bilen and saho people and nomads who are cushitc , 15% of them became catholics. Why did they succeed when in Eritrea but failed miserably in Somalia? Shaykh Aweys respons to this question in book Jawhadatal nofoos " My love for him (Muhammed all, and protecting it (imaanka) from them (colonialits) shall be my destination. Shaykh Aweys al Baraawi made dikri somali lyrics, when the chants became in Somali and Somalis could understand it hard for them to convert. An italian Phd scholar, a woman wrote that germans could not do any missionary amongst the tanzanian oweysiiya , Nobody today knows that the head of SYL, sakhawadiin was the son of Shaykh Aweys, Barre , the kacaan government did not want to a conflict but decided to choose Sayidka, a man who cursed tribes and shed muslim blood. I do not have any doybt the Sayid was a black or white thinker and that he hated the colonialists. His killing of Aweys was purelt strategic so that he could gain the upper hand over the mass following the Qaadariya had compared to his little know Saalixiya order. Shame on VOA to take a such a biased man Idajaa and not even give a single minute the family. Who amonst you here knew SYL GUDOOMIYE sakhawadiins father was the martyred Sheikh Aweys al baraawi? Not mant. A funny storry, as a young lad we had Somali teacher from Las-Anod who was famous Somalia as trader and had a key position in the socialist party as a young lad. We could not understand dardaaran, he explained it us and our hearts was filled with sympathiyor the sayid. At home I mentioned this for my mother and elderly father who came to visit us for a month and grandmother. My father said "sporko while they were having a coffe. They said "son, that man was killer, a simple bandit, he even killed sheekha aweys". Next week as I was a loud mouth I said it openly "Ninkaan dadka in uu dili jiray maad noo sheegtid, sheekh aweys in uu dilay af islam ama af gaal dad in uu ka dhahay gainst the Baidoa ppl". The Las-Anod teacher was shocked and called my mom". My father said "qashinka aad dadka ku shubeyseen in ey dadka ogeen miyey kula tahay,'' Nevertheless that teacher and father passed away alle ha naxariisto, I am happy that teacher taught me dardaaran and all of those poems, atleast we had fighter like Omar mukhtar. Bur Idajaaa with his big mouth accusing the shaykh of being a colonialist spy thats to much.

The one man show continues with his pentacostal christian belifs that he is the "chosen" one to lead Ethiopia. A year ago he was smiling in Mekelle and declared the war over and now he has rebels at the doorsteps infront of the capital. 20 % of all officers were Tigrayans in the Armey and they left for the TPLF. What you have now is a rag tag militia composing of oromos and amharas, I have said it before. This war will be decided by the oromo people. TPLF loves to brag but its not popular and could not cut the road to in fierce fightings with our afar cousins. They can not march into the capital. But they are smart. They made an alliance with some oromos, all muslim oromos are against Abey lets see if that Jaal can actualy bring the christian western oromos together and fire a single shot. A single shot is now what it take spread panic in Addis. Oromos, are many but far to much divided. This war will be decided by them. But what ever happens Ethiopia is now a failed state. In peacefull regions of Oromiya, qeero youth stormed the police stations and infiltrated the security apparatus. Dire Dawa police force is now run by a former OLF commander Ahmed maru. Lets see if he defects. Ilaahay nigu dhaarshay, does Abey Amxaaro really think afars and muslim oromos will die for him in the god for saken terrain of Amhara highlands? Does he think the somali nomad has this "ethiopian nationalism"? War bax dheh, The guy is full of crap and propaganda. As a true saaxir he thinks he can outfox ppl with cheap rhetoric. Lets see in 1 month what happens. DDIS ABABA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Every afternoon, Getachew Megersa searches the Ethiopian capital for undercover agents. The 55-year-old construction worker says it's not the first time he's defended his country against rebellious Tigrayan forces. "I am now safeguarding my city with a stick, but if it is required and they give me a weapon, I will do the same," the former soldier told Reuters. He is among tens of thousands of Addis Ababa residents who joined defence groups after Tigrayan fighters threatened last month to march on the capital. Getachew and his team - dozens of men in bright orange vests, brandishing hefty sticks - search pedestrians and cars for weapons and suspects from noon until 10 p.m. As a young man, Getachew spent 12 years in the military under the Marxist Derg regime, which was eventually toppled in 1991 by rebels from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and its allies. The TPLF dominated government for nearly three decades, until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. Relations quickly soured between Abiy's government and the TPLF. War erupted a year ago in the northern region of Tigray, and thousands of civilians have been killed, millions displaced and at least 400,000 people in Tigray forced into famine. Now Tigrayan forces have recaptured most of Tigray and pushed south and east into the neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions, threatening the capital and a transport corridor linking landlocked Ethiopia to the region's main port Djibouti. "There is no way that they (TPLF) will be able to rule Ethiopia again," Getachew told Reuters. Too many people in Addis Ababa oppose them, he said. Many on Getachew's team remember the 2005 elections. The TPLF-dominated government re-ran that vote and cracked down on protesters. Tens of thousands were arrested. Old amhara derg members with bamboo sticks patrolling Addis will not protect addis. ON PATROL 1/7 A man walks on the outskirts of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, November 5, 2021. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri The group began patrols a week ago. Once, they received a tip about three strangers who spent their days inside and moved around at night. Neighbours heard the men speaking in Tigrinya, the language of Tigray. He informed police, who detained them overnight and searched their house, Getachew said. Nothing was found and they were released, he said. Police instructed him to keep them under surveillance. "It is obvious that there are infiltrators...who have lived with us for years," Getachew told Reuters. On Nov. 2, the Abiy government declared a six-month state of emergency in the Horn of Africa country, allowing suspects to be detained without trial for as long as the proclamation lasts and house-to-house searches to be conducted without a warrant. Some Tigrayan citizens say they are being unfairly targeted because of their ethnicity. The state-appointed Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has said thousands of people, mostly Tigrayans, have been arrested in the latest of several waves of detentions. Ethiopian police say they are taking suspected TPLF operatives into custody. TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda was unavailable for comment on the self-defence groups. Commander Solomon Fantahun, director of community policing at Addis Ababa city police commission, said police have trained 147,000 male and female volunteers in combating crimes, community policing, discipline, and physical fitness. He said 2,000 volunteers have received additional training in conducting searches and assisting the police. He says they have helped capture weapons and direct police to suspects. “These volunteers are the ears and eyes of the police," said Solomon.

Galbeedi, can you really blame them? for a decade they had a electrcian turned gangster, a man whose education was climp to electric posts as TPLF spy and then hand him Soomali-galbeed. He dealt the region what his narrow mind taught him. For 10 years Amnesty was banned from Ethiopia and Soomali-galbeed had a media blackout just like tigray. The legacy of Cabdi Iley the stooge created havoc and undermined somali ethnic nationalism. Cant imagine the burden of masuuliyad the cagjar. One positive sign is how he changed the flag and embraced somalinimo during the conflict with the oromos. But his political play like dog whistling for the amhara and break him. Cagjjr loses if Abey wins and he loses if the TPLF returns to power. Thats unlikely. But my honest analysis is that of Che in the forum. The somalis need to understand that who ever prevails they will be opressed. The only viable solution is preparing how leave when Bosnia is heating up. (We allready have a bosnia now with its ethnic massacres).

Galbeedi, your new found love for Cabeey Amxaaro just for the sake of fear of the TPLF is infounded. TPLF is to weak, As a Somali, and a firm beliver in a in non racist pan-somalism I do believe that correcting the horrible injustice that Meneliq and his neftegna Amxaaro commited against the low landers is reflection on whats happening on the ground. Dont read me wrong. I am not happy for the death and wars in neighboring states but the the french scholar and orientalist of ethiopian studies said in a recent interview "ethiopia is an empire that threw out the skeleton of the caste system that held it together". Everyone who are in line with Ethiopias history knows which ethnic group he and caste group he he is referring to. Asxaaavey, bal fikiraa, Odaygii boqorki bakhtiyay and who was buried in the table of Mengistu, Xayle said in a BBC-interview "we are a christian nation, he then made claims to all of somalia, eritrea". That was 50 years ago. Things might be diffirent but Galbeedi the peacefull dissolution of Ethiopia and it returning to pre-meneliq borders might be the best for peace and stabity for Somalis. Let them dissolve. Freedom for Oromiya and Cafarta. Professor Merere Gudina, the oromo who has strong ties to the gaalada and whose ntelecctual non-violent activism turned the oromo cause into a secular one. 50 years ago Merera Gudina had to to take an amhara name and indeed he did so and was named dawit tekele untill 1991 when he changed his name back to the un-official one. My point is, if the whole nomenklatura dead, just as it died in the soviets let then it die. We Somalis also regressed and failed to become ethno-nation state fashioned on Europe. We regressed back to a tribal lands that the colonialists found us 1888. P-land for m*ijerxxxteniya Somali land for "hargeysa berbera burci" triangle", Southern Somalia with its mixed groups. Somalis have forgotten how the church Roma cathedral was built by forced labour that italians captured and chained. They have forgotten how Xaafun used to the one of the most profitable salt producers in the world and how the italians forced with chains the in the ankle the building that port. If we as one ethnic group with our multi-culturalism , regressed think about Ethiopia.! Americans can do the talk but belive me once a nation is armed to the teeth no one can stop its state collapse. 2 days dago all of the ministers in Somalia had a briefing and they were discussing the events unfoldning in Somalia and the national Somali intelligence had a report (99,9 coming from the CIA). The ministers were all in shock. The TPLF despite engaging in a war with cafarta armed to the teeth by flodding the whole nation with 10 tons of ak-47 and 20 tons of bullets. The report spoke about the collapse of the front and how armed militias and now basically running the regions. In Oromiya it is the OLF-soldiers who are now the police . AFL- and the former Read sea front, are now the police and the region army. The report also mentioned how the TPLF strategy had destablised Somalia. Bullets for ak47 costed 1 dollar per bullet, for one dollar one can now purchase 100 bullets. The hidden arms dealers of of Suuqaha Bakaara are now going to Assawarta and the cost of a Kalashnikov have droped by 50%. The report strongly recommended the somali army to stop the arms flooding from Ethiopia to Somalia. A certain popular minister with taste for classic somali ironic jokes cracked a joke and said "these americans have these details and know we cant even pass afgooye yet they want to close borders, are thet sane"?. In summary, the best option for Ethiopia for us Somalis is that they sit and negotiate, the ones who wants to get out from the meneliq of Ethiopia should be allowed to follow article 39 and achieve freedom just as Eritrea did. Jigjiga should prepare fpr this. Hope fully they will join Somalia and become a part of the politics of Mogadishu instead of Addis. Galbeeda, dantaada meesha ka fiiirso.

Leader of Ethiopia's Oromo rebels predicts victory 'very soon' WWW.HIIRAAN.COM A rebel leader fighting Ethiopia's government has said his troops are near the capital and preparing another attack, predicting the war will end "very soon" as diplomats rush to negotiate a ceasefire.

I dont get the math why GM should get seats in baraawe let alone mogadishu. Xamar iyo xamar daye, that was the historical and demographic outlook of the city and during the last free election in xamar, Avokaati raajis @xamarwayne folks and Avokate Jimcale got the seats, when did guriceel come in to the picture, specially in baraawe Yaab.

Duufan, brother I would say its Turkey that meet its limit not vica verse. I am usallt criticised going to deep in but acording to the esteemed Prof Ali Mizrui the post colonial pointed out that some muslim countries that has abolished corruption and succsesfully fully accepted assimilation was Tyrkey. He pointed out in his book that Turkey soon captivate muslims countries. Indeed making that hindsight in 1990 was remarkable. The truth is that the Ottoman empire or every muslim nation had no oncept of nation state or citizenship 150 years ago. Our concept of citizenship was the millah system. It was based upon religion,. Your passport or Id would have your religion written on it. Even though it is not relevant no more you can see traces of it in Egypr, When the western powers introduced the concept of nationalism it was a poison that the the turks drank and instead of having islam as glue the Young Turks under Enver Pasha and likes made turkification of the ottomans land. This created friction. Of All arabs the Rashaida and few other tribes and Sudan allied themselves during the 1914 ww1. The Kemalist fascists even rewrote history in order create a new nation, 60% including Somalis who heeded the calls for the defens of the Caliphate, sudanese, arabs, kurds were among the martyrs. Only 40 % the dead and the forces under Mustafa kemal were turks. Many of in Turkey became shocked of Mustafa kemals reforms, abolishing the caliphaste remodelling it self as a secular atheistic government. Deep resentment was among turk as the meaning of a turk meant Islam. A young man son a ottoman governor completed naked Necemedin Erbakan created in 1960 the movement of MILLI-Görush. A code word for "the dawn of Islam". The anatolian turks supported it and 1994 he and his dicipile Mr Erdogan captured power but was ousted, Fazilet partisi was banned. Erdogan broke away and in 2003 Erdogan gathered all poilitical partie sand intellectuals and even the military according to the manifesto the kemalist isolationist policy would be abondended. The isolation had just like china isolated itself until they could compete with the west. In 2008 every kemalist was purged and turkish firms went into places no one would go. Somalia is such a example. Indeed neo-ottomanism was and gloryfying the ottoman past that the kemalists hid became the mainstream. Tv-dramas etc. Turkey today makes billions of dollars of fishing agreements with Somalia while the fragile state of Somalia needs Turkey. Turkey as nato alliance is not a strategic one anymore, IBM were within the scope of Moscow were natio military HQ but with the development of hypersonic IBN that goes zig zag no one any more use counter measure. For 90 years the kemalists turks were knockning on the door EU and were rejected. France a so called secular countrey , the bastion secularism under Sarkozy said it openelym EU is a christian club, Boris Johnsson won Brexit by warning million of turks migrating to the UK. Little did he know that Greece a former ottoman province, would migrate to Turkey to work rather then within the EU. Turkish firms are cuteddging in some fields as the defence technology,. Turkey is the future but the one show must end. The good news is that national strategy regarding of which party takes power are fully united of Turkey its seat amongst G.7 and becoming a rival to muslims as compass instead of al-sacuud. Daafun your line questioning is wrong, As if the "west" is the "it", Its post colonial sxb. What does the EU and the west have beside broken familiies and a bloody monstrous history murdering millions and stealing their wealth. A hindu famous write wrote, Before the west came to us we had 10 times the BNP, after they left we had nothing. He is a famous academic. The west is in decline, even the EU is in decline. A new order is coming, hopefully one with the half moon.

Comparing ethnic politics to the clan politics of Somalia is not a good example duudfan. Remember that it was a united oromo front with pre-planned qeero youth that made ethiopias post meles TPLF rigid and being toppled. The TPLF, the hyeanas were thinking that if they choose Cabey Amxaaro /Abey Ahmed no blodshed will occur and buisness will be as usall. When Abey came to power he saw the dire economical coffins of the state. They had been looted by tigrayans and Ethiopia could not even pay the intrest on the loans that Meles and post Meles had taken. Why do you think Abey Ahmed sold Ethiopias mobile network and started a campaign to sell of state assets. The saaxirka of Eritrea who even managed to manipulate Farmaajo, Cafwerki had a deep seated grudge against the TPLF and convinced that with combined eritrean troops they would finish of the TPLF 4-5 months. While Cafwerkis eritrean troops indeed secured victory and fine brandy was the daily for cafwerki he met up with the american embassy and they told him that they would reinstate the sanctions and this time it would be harsh iran like sanctions. Cafwerki who has no cash and dollars with drew. The tplf rebels managed in 4 months to take tigray and are able to cut the supply route from jabuuti, We are talking about diffirent people who have nothing, nada in common. Even the oromos, those who originate from haraghe, bale have more in common with Somalis then the agroculture coptic orthodox oromos. Che is correct that dissmissing the TPLF and OLF is overstating the national army of Ethiopia. It was routed and compleyely crushed. Why would oromo, cafar, somali kilil forces die for the amhara state, Galbeedi, oromada sida hore maahan, Just che said, the war in Xamar did not start in the blue,l During the last days of Barre he only controlled Mogadishul If Abey would have used the oromo nationlism He could have one the heart of the oromos. But saying in nationak TV -"Ethiopia tikdem" a chant from tjhe Mengistu amhara-centric rule only cemented the vuew that Abey qikidtuuz< w

I have the to say the impasse and the lack of action from cagjr is not something that suprised me. Nearly 35 yearsof SNM, USC, SANU (not armed,) SSF, every clan with acronym disguise of "S" for somali have destroyed the pan-somali spirit or weakended to a point that Cagjar and many Somalis, even ministers in Somalia have inferiority complex to the highlanders xabashida. 100 years ago the spirit of a Soomali was according to a historical somali source a sound one with no inferiority complex. Indeed it was the xabashida landlocked who were on the run who even dressed as muslims. Isolated as they were. The somali spirit have been told by the late mass murderor and colonial general fascist Grazianil, Once near afgooye he was passing by was . He passed through a daughter of a famous religous somali leader. She was a sweet tea made of caano.geel seller and she to inherited sacred law. Graziani had through his somali "askaris" gotten a taste for the somali tea. Back then the mugs were made by wooden mugs. When Graziani orderd his tea and finished it he saw the woman taking the cup and then throwing it away. Amazed he asked a local somali why she would she do that The somali askari said in a whispering way, anxiously "she views you as a gaal, and this was the first time he had seen a white gaal and she views you as naajis" (I dont know the best term for this term in the sacred law. Shocked graziani orderd his soldiers to tear down her small tea shop and went into the campaign of conquering Ethiopia in 1936. The woman was Ruqiya ine Shaykh Axmed Xaaji Mahdi (qs). Such was the mindset of Somalis. Returning the conflict, the west neither has time nor the will to save its sacred anicent "abyssinia" that Menelik forged by chopping of the hands of muslim oromos and killing somalis. and afars and every lowlanders. The inferiority complex or the neo pax-exthiopiana during 200-2014. with famous yellow sofa is over. Pres Cabdullahi would came and be forced to pledge his alliance, the SNM aka Somaliland leaders come the next weak to pledge their alliance in the same yellow TPLF sofa. Pictures would be taken with weyane a hyeana that comes from a non-blessed countrey that even lacks a river, a desert, a place where the norm is to eat injera with hot berbera souce for breakfeast, hot berbera suace with injenera with hot souce, A cursed place making instructions. I fully agree with Che that what every actión Abey does he loses. He lost when he refused to use the oromo card that actually brought him to the power. He lost it when another lunatic and opressor of the faith Cafwerki played his mind and lured him to launch a war, 4 months into a war and once the whiskey and the fine brandey had run out from Cafwerki and sounds of Americans sanctions if he did not withdraw, he made the sound and logical choice to with draw. 3 months later Mekelle was re taken and now the the rebels are at the gates. The americans are confused. The TPLF will not listen to USA, indeed USA did not come to their rescue when they needed it. They will throw all their manpower and love texting to the oromos to take finn finne. The best scenario for cagjar is to find Addis abbeba divided between feuding ethnicities. Just as kabul became once the soviets withdrew. The TPLF has clearly said that once they find a military solution they will have international conferance and that conferance will the mark the end of Meneliks ethiopia. Somalis should prepare for a strong military border with a secular millions of armed oromos. Cagjar should adress his people dressed in military fatigue just as the Afar leaders did when they refused to the be ockupied by the TPLF. He should mobilise all somalis using the ethnic card in order to fortify the non-demarcated borders between oromos and somalis and afars. Lack action, and lack of communication to his own people regarding his thoughts shows the inferiority complex. I dont know what else to call it.

Che nailed it good. Galbeedi, just as Che said times have changed and during the 30 years of TPLF the main thing that oromos benifited from was de-colonisation from the amhara-centric Ethiopia. Just look at the names "Jaale Maarso" . If the tplf have indeed as they claim captured Dessie they captured the jugular vein of Ethiopia, meaning that they could stop djabouti-Addis high way. They tried through the afars and failed but lazy amhara do not want to fight. Just as you said, Abey is now freely armed civilans, the golden rule of war is creating ethnic militias and arming them to the teeth and sending to the front without shoes that clear indication that the whole front has collapsed. The TPLF will never be able to rule Ethiopia as it did before. The armed qeeros who have massivly joined OLF-W and are aware of jawar and lemma will not allow them rule. As for the somalis, cagjar was busy making his holy ziyara to Meneliks grave and praising. I mean it, 1 year ago He went invited to Bahri Dahr universaty and became the first somali to praise Menelik to the delight of Amhara public.

ETHIOPIA--, A NATION IN CRISIS: II REBEL AT THE GATES OF ADDIS ABEBA 1 NOVEMBER 2021. A POLITCAL ANALYSIS. Its monday and I have the day off. While making coffe my habbit or addiction could not be tamed. While drinking my coffe the usall habit began, beginning with aljazeera and then local news and ofcourse the reuters and read the news that oromo fighters had caputed the critical highway t4 and are now 54 km from capital and in another twist of evens the TPLF are now capturing more amhara region. While the whole framwork news is biased and post-colonial in nature (talking about climate summit) and ignoring the huge developments in Ethiopia I felt obliged by fellow scholars and friends to finally write PART II ON THE DISSOLUTION OF ETHIOPA. BACKGROUND Ethiopia comromises of 5 main ethnic group, Amhara, Tigrayans, Oromo, Somalis and Afars. Ethiopia is an ancient christian and muslim nation. Indeed it was one of the first empires Aksum to accept Christianity and Islam came to ethipia before it advanced to Medina. A POSSIBLE DISSOLUTION OR A FAILED STATE IS NOW ON TIME TABLE. 6 or 7 years ago a during might of the Tigrayan regime I wrote calculated analysis based my knowlidge sociological aspects of Ethiopia was done by me. I dared to say that Ethiopia with its current etnic-federal constitutution would eventually lead to the downfall of the state. I received a lot of criticism, mainly from my ehhiopians friends who saw me as Somali irredentist wishing decline for them. They pointed the BNP growth of Ethiopia and with a smile said do not throw stones if your house own house is made of glass. My fellow Somalis also accused me of day dreaming, Indeed 30 years of civil strive had made the spirit of pan-somalism almost dead. Only one Somali scholar supported me in the live forum while 29 others rejected my ideas as youngsters wishes and far from reality. Ethiopia and vicious monstorus religious extremist Haile Selassie, who openly said in BBC in 1951 in a interview that they had no "muslims in Ethipia" while half of population is muslim. ' At that time Ethiopia was an Empire based on the amhara ethnicity and upon the orthodox chuch. The colonial empires gave parts of somali populated lands and Eritrea as "gift" to the monster Haile Selassie. The decline came when Mengistu, a fervent and devout communist abolished the religo-amhara based empire and declared a communist state where everyone would be equall. The orthodox church had no more powerr and ethnicity became a central issue. But even Mengistu failed to adress "question of nationalities and ethnicity". Mengistu knew if he opended that pandora box the writing on the wall would be DISSOLUTION. The national language continued to be amharic despite amharas only comprimising 20 perscent and oromos 30% A distant relative of mine by marriage who hails from the somali region of Ethiopia and who is now in his 80-ties told that they did not feel ethiopian during the 60-ties and all schools were taught in amharic. If someone wanted to make a career he had to take an amhara name. Assimilation was the way. He said we muslims in the east rejected this and those in the north Eritrean did the same. Mengistus and his refusal to adress this issue plummeted the nation into civil war based upon ethnicity. During the height of the war, TPLF, AFL, OLF , WSLF (ONLF) all the most importantly EPLF (Eritrean liberation front operated by scenes and by the late 80-ties Mengistus Amhara dominated army controlled only the cities). Mengistu was loosing the war in the north and the supply route from the red sea in Eritrea was main supply route to the nation. When communism was fading away and Moscow and cubans did not have time or the will or the strength to send weapons to Mengistu all the rebels united under the name EPRDF. The Eritreans with 1igrayans mounted and offensive and in that offensive named "the battle of afabet" the fate of Mengistu was sealed. His main army compomising ofcourse by Amhara officers faced the reality that 100 000 men being under seige. The tigrayans had cut the supply routes to the army from Addis and EPLF captured Massaw the port which Ethiopia relied upon. The Afars and the Somalis sucsessfully cut the last remaining supply route, the railroad track from Addis to Jabuuti. Once when that was done, the EPLF mached into capital, They then cordinated the TPLF (Tigrayan Liberations front) to uite all rebels under the name EPRDF. In a single month every non-amhara soldier deserted and the remaininh amhara soldiers went to Amhara region. Here comes the part where my Somali brothers will criticise me, While Somalias dictator knew his fate and when rebels were at the gates of Mogadishu he took the choice of arming clans supprting him, civilians, once arms are in the arms of civilians the outcome will be a failed state. Libya is anothe example. The western powers, despite of knowing and learning from their mistakes of Iraq bombed Libya and Ghaddafi flooded the public with arms to defend him. Today Libya is a failed state compromizing of militias with no political objective. Mengistu Xayle Mariam was a nationalist and he knew if armed Amharas to fight for him and making the whole war a war of ethnicity Ethiopia would be a failed state. Another aspect is that the western powers saw the ancient Christian Ethiopia as a the "civil part" of Africa and a a hidden meeting led by Jimmy carter and the EPRDF and Mengistu paved away for a peacefull power exchange. When the rebels were at the gates Mengistu orderd the police in Addis Abeba to take instructions "the fascists weyane" (weyane and galla ) hyeana is the racist slur against tigarayans galla is a slurword used against oromos. Eritrea declared inpendence We are in now 1991. Melez Zenawi the leader of the TPLF took charge and being a extreme hoxaist communist during his days of as a rebel he fashioned himself as social democrat. But he did one thing that no one, and i will say it again, NO ONE EVER HAD DONE BEFORE. With Eritrea gone, some Tigrayans wanted to dismantle the empire, Oromos wanted out, Somalis wanted out, no one execpt the Amharas who had a priveliged status wanted to keep Ethipia. Meles did an act no one had before. He tackled the issue of ethnicity and imitated the ethnic-federalism of Yoguslavia and even stipulated in the constitution of Ethiopia in article 39 that every ethnic region had the right of leave. The ethnic federalism created a renessceanse of oromo nationalism. The cushitic group of Oromos in Shewa the orthodox christian oromos promoated nationalism and retook old oromo names. After Meles Zenawi died the oromo rised up and the TPLF who were more afrad ffrom the amhara gave away to a security agent from the oromo group, Abey Ahmed. He made peace with Eritrea, shocking the TPLF and released all political prisoners, He received a nobel peace price but according to the OLA under same time time he he was freeing prisoners he was arresting Jawar Ahmed a fellow oromo natonalist and lemma megersa another fellow oromo nationalist. He cracked down on those who wanted to keep the ethnic frederalism. He made a state blockade against the Tigrayan region. With starvation the TPLF launched an attack thus the the war began. WHAT HAPPENING NOW? WHAT WILL THE FUTURE BRING? While the US is on decline and oil has now become a non strategic goal the horn of africa with the read sea has now become a second thing. Alternative energy sources as fisher oil, solar etc and rise of China have made the sea China more important. Abey Ahmed wants to abolish the the ethnic-federalism and impose a central state. aka an amhara state. centered state. The war took a dramatic scene when the battle hardened TPLF regrouped the took Mekelle and the military offensive became more dangerous when an ofshoot of Oromo liberation front-West aounced an alliance. Addis Abeba lies deep in oromo lands. Abey Ahmed lost his support when he tried to crush the oromo seperatists. It was to late. Oromo seperatists had infiltrated the state and became the local polceman, military etc The news that OLF-W are now within 53 km from Addis Abeba is very much disturbing. Africa needs peace. Its impertative for Abey Ahmed to realise that a peacefull dissulution and referefendum is needed to correct historical in justice. If Eritrea could leave the empire why should not Oromiya or Somali region (Ogaden region) Afar region? POSSIBLE INTERVENTIONS. With dramatic news of rebels being in 53 km in the vicinity of the capital Addis Abeba and cordinating the offensive with the TPLF, Abey Ahmed will be forced to negotiate a settlement and key demand from the TPLF. The tigrayans and oromos will not make the same mistake that Meles made for them. This time the settlement will include calls for referendum of an E-xit. Either you remain or indpendence.

Che, As I said before, the oromos are now those who can either make peacefull dissulution of the amxaara empire that the blood thirsty religous extremist Menelik created. But with all the good PR-pictures above and all the hum-bug of the OLF they have still not been able to capture a single regional capital. The OLF had a strong presence among the Boran oromos in moyaale and nageele, the bordear areas with kenya, Still no military activity have been reported in that area They have not been able capture the regional capital city of boran oromos nagele. Even the hard-core seperatists, those who actually refused to be assimilated, the hararge oromos, those who support Jawar,. Its splinter group from the OLF , the Islamic liberation front of Oromiya founded by the late Sheekh Cabdulkarim Ibraahim Xaamid Alle ha u naxariisto (I think he died a couple of years ago), a scholar and a fighter trained in the mogadishu in the 70-ties and have been unable to conduct any major military activites, Hararge and cut of the infamous A10 highway to Addis Abeba. Their is no national Ethiopian army, indeed all tigrayan colonels and officers were purged. What remains are loyal amhara or loyal neftegna oromos (oromo la amxaareeyay) that are loyal to the abyssinian caste system and lordship. Mainly a amhara centric state. If those pictures are true and OLF-W are making rapid progress in Shew a it would have been noticed by the media. Any activity in Shewa would have noticed if they would have cut away the main high way from Oromiya west to Addis. Their are 4 main high ways the lead to the capital and all of these highways are in Oromiya and they have not been able to make a single move. Either the Oromos are throwing their support for the neftegna Oromo of Caabey-Amxaaro or they are simply not cordinated and efficent in war as the TPLF. Take for a example jimma, they have not even been able to capture that city despite that all soldiers belonging to the former regime ran off and qeero youth replaced them as policemen. According to an Oromo friend of mine who I called in order get my regular dose on whats actyally happening from an oromo perspective. Everyone is armed and their is no law and order, and that by all definition is a civil war. The vast arms depots and have been plundered and the TPLF intentional distrbution of vast tones of weapons to the south have made the whole south a no mans land, yet we hear no OLF-W claim of capturing a regional province capital. Those who can spell the end for dying amxara empire are the shewan oromos of OLF-W. The only thing that they need to do is cut these 4 main roads that lead in to Addis Abeba. Attacking lorry tracks by night in combat groups by 10 along the road using anti-tank guided missiles or more simple weapons is all that it takes to freeze Addis Abeba and take the war to the capital. Yet they are unable to do this. Disrupting supply routes in a war is a key condition for victory and thats how the TPLF took the whole world by suprise when they cut of Mekelle from Addis Abeba and every soldier ran off. Amxaaro will never fight. The only time they fought was 2 times, during the oromo migrations and during the war of Axmed Gurey. They lost both times. I dont know, but we need to understand the oromo psyche, war maxay rabaan? Siiba oromoda gaalada eh ee galbeedka? Mey dagaalaman? Thats a political question that I cant answer, maybe you or galbeedi have more info. What the end game with the oromos and why on earth are they supporting a Caabey Amxaaro using a oromo mask while directing amxaaro policies? Kiina aaway? Intuu dadka diyaarin lahaay kulahaa ciidamo soomali aan u diraa in ey difaacan amxaaro. No offence , But our dear friends Abtigiis mental health needs to be checked as he and farmaajo has entered in history as Somali leaders sending somali lads dying for an amxaaro centric Itoobiya. Abtigiis is a Somali nationalist, that is undeniable but his personal vendetta against the TPLF should not dictate the greater good for soomalida. Caabey Amxaaro is a magician by his wods, giving a few seats to Somalis "as if they have been included" does not erase the 100 years of oppression since 1884. Every weak Ethiopian ruler used to keep his enemies close, Xayle Selassie while he was weak had a eritrean PM. Once he had crushed all political opponents he forced eretiteriyaa into his amxaro centric world. Caabey Amxaaro did the same, Lemma, Jawar, everyone, was kept close untill he had his amxaaro backing. He then stabbed them in the back. Thats a warning to Abtigiis.

Galbeedi is completely true what he says about who defeated mengistu, the best well trained army in Africa. The EPLF succsesfully defeated 10 Ethiopian offensives and when Communism collapsed so did the aid for the Ethiopian army. It was the EPLF that sent thousands of its soldiers to cut the vital supply roads addis to Massawa. They did so and in 1990 over 100 000 amhara soldiers were cut off. Once the supplies had ran out every general fled and so did the soldiers. The whole front collapsed and the EPLF captured Massawa and then Asmara. That had a shocking knocking of event and what many do not know is that the EPLF sent further thousands of soldiers to the TPLF to capture Addis abeba. The gaalada saved Ethiopia by the deal in the UK. The TPLF today are landlocked and its hard to replay the scenario of the 80-ties. Galbeedi what you do not have in your equation is that the TPLF masterminded the flooding of vast amounds of weapons into Ethiopia. According to a source of mine the tons of weapons the TPLF flooded freely into Ethiopia even made the weapons dealers in Mogadishu bankrupt. A brand new chinese made kalash for 50 dollars?. Why did they do that? They wanted to incite the the oromos, the somalis. The oromos are know those who can determine of Ethiopia survives or dies. All police stations in Oromiya have been taken over by the OLF and the OLF have now become lawfull regional army, a far cry from its rougue terrorist label. If the oromos see the writing on the wall and realise that Abey is nothing then a Amhara using a oromo mask that could spell the end and be the victory of Ethiopia. The alliance between the OLF-W and TPLF was a gamechanger. Even though the OLF do not want admit it and keep caling OLF-W as splinter group many signs point to that they want eat with both hands. As for us, Soomaalida need a take step back and realize that their is no diffirence between amxaaro and tigrayans, they are both abyssinians and they have allways in history wrestled control with each other. The dissolvement of an Empire built upon blood of Somalis, and cutting of the breats of muslim oromo women and forcing millions of jeberti muslims in Tigray to convert to Christianity is an Empire that needs to dissolve. A peacefull disolvement would be the perfect scenario for a peacefull horn of Africa. Lets see if the oromos are wise and united. Its sad to see how somalis have degenerated so much that they sent somali lads to die for amxaaro, YAAB!

The cowboys of Somaliam now with a a suufi suits have suddenly become a new deviant form of al-shabaab. A wadaad with ak-47? Yaab! Wat bax dheh!

Using drone attacks, killing civilians and then compensating the families with amound of a couple of goats. No wonder the taliban humiliated the UK and USA. This begs the question, how many innocent Somalis have been killed by US-drones with inpunity. Afghanistan war: UK's lowest payout for civilian death was £104.17 WWW.BBC.COM The compensation payment is one of hundreds by the Ministry of Defence, revealed for the first time.

War corrupts you, even honest hearts can be stained by the dirty politics of Somalia. Sheekh Macalaim Maxamuud and xertiisa in guriceel were busy studying islam. When al-shabaab under the leadership of Kaba-ku tukade wrestled controll of the mosques and imposed his interpertation al-shabaab style a group of xerows took upon arms, Remember the battle of wabxo? Al-shabaab launched 4 major offensives and failed everytime with heavy losses? why? The indegenous group thought they were literally fighting khwaarijta of our time, al-shabab takfiiris.. They belived they were on the right path, while enemy was on the wrong path. I am pretty sure that government forces would have laid down their arms and run away but these xerow students in 2008-2009 did not. In Gedo Sheekh Xasan Qoryooley armed themselves and the Shaykh himself was martyred. Shaykh Maxamed Faarax was also martyred, But power corrupts you. Ahlusunna of guriceel became a pure tribal militia. Its bizarre to see him know saying "waanu tanasulnay" when he was the one advocating war against the government. Alle ha u naxariisto Sheekh Maxamed Faarax in the video, He was martyred a year later. As I said before politics corrupts you, look how a movements starts and then becomes burcad. A rouge militia that craves for power, Somalia's Sufis Fight the Shabab - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM Somalia has been plagued by civil war between rival clans for almost 20 years. Now, religious groups are killing each other over competing visions of Islam.