Duufaan
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Posts posted by Duufaan
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I would say, the opposite will happen and Tigray will have difficult to move forward. Poor armed Amhara mobilizing with millions , Afar is winning and the OLF Oromo are no where to be seen.
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Arafaat
Somalia lost both NFD and West Somalia because of interventions from winners of world war 1 and 2. Blinken idea of future Ethiopia is backward, not forward. Nether Amhara. Tigray, Oromo and Somalis matter for him. If he finds Ethiopia's SISI, he will be happy. The Ethiopia future direction, you are talking about is not the table. Blinken is looking Sudan type of interventions, more or less a Jordan style Ethiopia government. A government that relied on western aid but also take orders from donors.
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AU envoy sees short `window of opportunity' on Ethiopia war
WWW.SANDIEGOUNIONTRIBUNE.COM
The African Union’s envoy for the Horn of Africa is warning that there is a short “window of opportunity” and little time to reverse the crisis in northern Ethiopia which has drastically deteriorated in recent weeks...This deal is a big win for Abiya, if materialized
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But the west will engineer it with outcome they want. That is way they picked up TPLF over the Oromo. So you really know it gone be north. Any change will no be better for Somalis. Do not wish unknown., the guy with Muslim father maybe the better time.
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2 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:Galbeedi,
A Somali has no future in Ethiopia and Muslims will not be given authority over historically Christian land. Any Ethiopian state has been and will always be hostile to Somalis.
You are right Tigray does not have the capacity to march to Addis by itself and take over the reins of the state. To his credit, Abiy has put the West in an awkward position, they have a choice between siding with him or watching the disintegrations. Siding with Abiy means there is no one doing their dirty work in the region, in other words, there is no Zenawi, and not siding with him will certainly lead to some sort of confederation with a weak central government, and a strong periphery that will dedicate the center, or simply outright secession. Tigray and in effect other regions will not settle for a very centralized state.
If this conflict showed anything, it is that no one is in a position to fully realize their goals. Ethiopia might turn out to be like Bosnia, an unhappy between people that hate each other.
Historically christant? Just only the north
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Rebels are closing in on Ethiopia's capital. Its collapse could bring regional chaos
WWW.NPR.ORG
A newly formed rebel alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front is within striking distance of Addis Ababa. A failed state could displace millions of people and stoke more ethnic violence.The Liberal west media continue their propaganda. They are talking about war on terror and Somalia. So you can say they are against Abiya vision. The people in the region must to prove them wrong.
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They trying to pressure Abiya. They did not have problem to convince Mingest leave. Abiya have public support and Ethiopians will not forgive him if he leaves now.
The real issue is Abiya refused to accept the Dam deal.
He befriended Farmaajo and stoped the Somalia interference.
He have to win the war and force negotiation, otherwise the Oromo and economy will eventually lead his lost.
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It seems Abiya is not going any where soon. This will make Blinken game more harder. The propaganda did not work as intended.
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People should read this book
Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East Hardcover – October 6, 2020
by Philip H. Gordon (Author)
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Khadafi
The issue is not the mistakes Abiya did, is not Ethiopia, Amhara, Oromo and TPLF. It is all about geopolitics and this geopolitical game is design for all the east African regions. it is all about what to come and the probability if Abiya can survive this. It is now different boll game.
There are indeed some similarities what happened Xamar in 1991 and what is going on Ethiopia today. In1990 all the financial support going to Somalia was stopped. Arabs was told not provide Siyad Barre any financial support. Somali was relied on the support they got from Saudi Arabia, UAE and United states and all was stopped. There were no hard currency coming moqdisho anymore. The rest is history. Same thing is happening in Ethiopia. I do not think Blinken is right person for this. He probably think east Africa is extension of the middle east.
The Ethiopians are saying the TPLF was defeated, there leaders was either captured or killed. Now, they are getting even satellite and communication support. For any outcome Ethiopia is doomed and it effect Somalia and Somalis big time.
The Oromo is weakest link but also most dangerous group. You right about their similarities with Somalis. If they are not managed right. They will destroy the whole thing and they will come to Jigjiga for sure. Blinken will not able to manage Ethiopia.
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Is this decline better or worst for the rest of world including Africa?
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Has the West Reached Its Limit Against Turkey?
NATIONALINTEREST.ORG
In the backdrop of declining Western global influence, policymakers in Washington and Brussels may need to ask, “Is it a wise decision to confront... -
Sound familiar in Somalia satiation. Somali State Resistance= Ahmed Madoobe
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Che
Ethiopians are not similar to Somalis. Even Tigray everything is working. There is no looting taking place. In fact with all the propaganda few civilian was killed for all the parties. Even OLA just replaced leaders of the villages they captured if needed. There is long way to go before we see the moment of changes in ethiopia.
Galbeedi
Although situation is not good for Abiya. He is not done and his last move was very clever. This is a western campaign to overthrow Abiya rather the strength of TPLF and other resistant. But I also agree Abiya needs foreign support and only Turkey can help but Turkey has their lira problem and do not want to make their situation worst. There are also rumors that turkey started providing Abiya a small military support. The Oromo is most problematic for Abiya but West is with TPLF. This may give Abiya a second chance
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They tried to engineer changes in Sudan and after two years things are going different direction. Engineering changes in Ethiopia will end up same result. It will never be 1991. They are not even willing to spend a lot of money to smooth things.
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You will probably see Amhara doing same in few weeks
The Tigray are not well armed either. Much of Ethiopian army hardware is already destroyed or unusable. -
Back to topic
A this point I do support Cagjar. He is in a liking ship and there is nothing he can do, other than to stay loyal to his master. A majority of his tribal men are more worry about Kismaanyo and hoping a speeded Abiya departure. But the fact is the changes in Ethiopia started long time ago when the same groups helped the removal of Melazawi regime. Maybe the same tactics will be successful again but Ethiopia will never be same. I see the refugee coming and overwhelm Somalia and not only other ethnic groups but people from Somalis region. Than we will see if garoowe and Hargeysa welcome them.
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Now I do understand where we are going? -
Yusuf should run for president. He is someone with principle. He came out and let the world know they did not follow the rules in book. Western led institution are alway political.
1 hour ago, maakhiri1 said:These issues are too complex and Somalis lack knowledge, the judgement was too technical and few understood it
War meel cidla iyo dhac baynu la dabaaldegeeyney?
Yeelkeeda, with Somalia very week, it could have been worse. Intaas aynu iimaansano, and judgement is final
Not really. The line is visually clear where it is going to.
Kenya and their friends understood the rules and they played the Somalis. The MOU was problematic which led Somalia going to the court. Somalia had everything in place. The colonial agreement in 1936. Italian and British sea border which Somalia inherit. The Somalia of the law of sea which somalia declared in 1977 and the geography of Somali border with Kenya . Somalia does not have those advantage in the Red Sea. Yemen will win the biggest share. -
I do totally agree with him. There were no many Somalis talking about the problem that Yusuf was talking about. Somalia are not detailed oriented people. Yusuf from Eyl is one the true hereo.
The new line in many ways is similar the one Kenya was claiming. after the line passes the disputed area it gives more and more sea to Kenya. They never suppose to be fair to us. -
28 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:SOMALIS have a very short memory, I really don't know who he was but I remember before anyone there was a guy who went crazy about this issue in Somalitalk. Who everyday was writing about this issue and made most Somalis aware.
If you are out there, I want say thank you.
I do remember that guy. He was the one who actually educated me on this issue.
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Cigaal's Kenya MOU and Sharmarke's government MOU was identical. He should be in jail.
Garacad port is a great lesson for Somalis every where
in Politics
Posted
Great news, more and more ports are welcome but we can not only be importer country, ships must to be load something back even Salt. Lasqoray people should follow suit.