Duufaan
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Posts posted by Duufaan
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3 hours ago, Tillamook said:Mashaallah , Gooni, talo wanaagsan baad Farmaajo u dirtay, but unfortunately for you this is Useless Farmaajo we are talking about here…waa hore ayaan ku iri, odeygu bar caaqiba ma leh.
Tillammok
The history will charge Farmaajo and I agree Moqdisho has been the only beneficiary of his time. But you have to also agree the SSDF elites after Abdilaahe Yusuf is happy to receive the leftovers from moqdisho and does not care anything else. In fact they are willing to defend the status que. That is way people are still supporting Farmaajo, see him a better alternative.
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Blinken, the American foreign minister failed Ethiopia diplomacy and now he is going fail in Somalia. He is arrogant and can not understand public opinion of other countries. He does not understand east Africa is not middle east. Farmaajo game is crazy. This one is a close call. If he survive this with a win, he will be the somalia leader for years to come.I noticed moqdisho politicians paying great deal of respect to foreign dignitary in the city. They are still hoping they will be appointed the leadership of somalia through UN and foreigners. Fahad Yaassin and Farmaajo changed the formula. That game is over, they have to win elections without foreigners.
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If Farmaajo want to challange the moqdisho warlords he should be done long time ago. Too late for now. They are United front to defend what they got. They are wreaking and losing over the time with good goverment. Election must to happen sooner than
later.
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This may help Farmaajo in the end. Now federal state leaders are free to submit a list of their PM. Rooble is here to become wealthier before he leave and he is not ready to leave soon. The new opposition are Xassan Shiekh and CC Shakuur. They do want war in moqdisho nothing else. Sh Shariif and Khayre left the group. If I was Farmaajo I would listen Abdi Caashi advice and let the upper house elect its leaders. If he want back he can not be the level of Rooble and Hasan Sheikh.
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The Tigray forces are weakening. The Amhara fighters are getting better, specially their territory. Their best chance is hide inside their territory, even if they got help. With their small population it will be hard to be around Amhara and Afar region. It is possible that Abiya army will capture MEKELE again in few months.
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I listened the debate, it is good debate and sharing idea. The host did good job who ever sponsored. There is hope for Somali people with new leaders.
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7 hours ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:I don't like Heritage iyo kooxda maamusho. Who funds it horta? I believe it to be Sahan 2.0.
Having said that, waa soo dhaweynaayaa meel ee Soomaaliweyn iskugu imaanayaan, la isku soo dhaweynaayo laakiin the hosting venue waa in la badalaa sanadkiiba. Jabuuti lee maxaa afar sano loola ordaayaa.
Heritage reminds me, the Planned Parenthood Federation of America. Planned Parenthood Federation of America is a nonprofit organization that provides sexual health care in the United States and globally. That is not what they do in reality.
Heritage is more likely an organization that affiliated Nairobi based NGO groups, closely working with the crises group. Their main job is information gathering, recruiting future political candidates and creating public opinion with the sponsors platform. I like idea of these types of meeting but organization like Heritage should be independent, sponsored by Somalis.
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I was in Ethiopia during Mingeste time and visited many times since than. Abiya is much better alternative for majority of people. Haile Salase used to say Muslims are guest in Ethiopia, a country where at least 40% are Muslim if not more. During that time, you would never see a Oromo, Afar and Somali government worker. Last month Ethiopia was training the first Somalia Air force pilot. Ethiopia could be the next Nigeria. Somalis in general see Kenya more positive compare to Ethiopia. The Kenyan bantu scare me but not Ethiopian anymore. The threat of highlanders is fading but Kenyan's bantu and the white man behind them should scare Somalis. They already marginalized Muslim minority population in cost area and their government refusing locals for land rights. NFD people are more danger than ever.
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Afar and Amhara will come out of the winners of ethnic groups. Oromo and the Somalis biggest losers because of their division. A great number of them were believing regime change will happen. Overall the Tigray will lose militarily but win politically with the size of their population.
Ethiopia as Christian nation became also false. Muslims are not only east but also north. The world saw the colors of ethiopia.
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Although Deni is supporter of the anarchy around the country. The changes he makes putland army is legit and something he can claim credit as he is planning to run Somali president. Changing clan melesia to regular state forces. But the fight against Diyaano Family is more political and will wound him badly. This is moqdisho style business. A fight between Boosaaso road blockers.
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Could this be another western propaganda. They are claiming Oromo is moving toward Adis. I very much debt these guys ability and battle readiness.
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The Tigray will force to negotiate. They are also losing in Adis Ababa front. Now Amharo farmers marching like Mililik time with the government support, the Tigray has limit choices. Next three weeks they will probably lose much of territory they captured and forced to defend their region.
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Amharo marching. Those emotional Somalis and pro TPLF people. The end of the game Amharo empower with battle victory.
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TDF destroyed Ethiopian army north division. The east division which is placed Somalia border and Afar, still have many divisions intact. Abiya is using the lesson learned by Afar in Amhara region. The remained heavy armed regular forces with local Amhara forces and Afar forces and the air force, the Tigray is done. They do not have the men power and Oromo did not show up. Again Oromo not willing to sacrifice to gain political influence.
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Afar is killing the dream of Tigray come back to power, they may save Abiya. Tigray forces must regroup to adjust the Afar advancement to cut off their supply line. If they do that Amharo will have a new chance to counter attack with a lot of men in different places because the Tigry are over streched . Similar problem that Somali army had in 1978 after initial success although the soviet was game changer. Somalia could not add new forces. Tigray are experiencing similar problem. They do not have enough men to add the front line and that will ultimately lead their lost. They just facing large enemy that can bring more people to front. Blinken is already realizing the new development and asking a new negotiation.
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Great news, more and more ports are welcome but we can not only be importer country, ships must to be load something back even Salt. Lasqoray people should follow suit.
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I would say, the opposite will happen and Tigray will have difficult to move forward. Poor armed Amhara mobilizing with millions , Afar is winning and the OLF Oromo are no where to be seen.
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Arafaat
Somalia lost both NFD and West Somalia because of interventions from winners of world war 1 and 2. Blinken idea of future Ethiopia is backward, not forward. Nether Amhara. Tigray, Oromo and Somalis matter for him. If he finds Ethiopia's SISI, he will be happy. The Ethiopia future direction, you are talking about is not the table. Blinken is looking Sudan type of interventions, more or less a Jordan style Ethiopia government. A government that relied on western aid but also take orders from donors.
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AU envoy sees short `window of opportunity' on Ethiopia war
WWW.SANDIEGOUNIONTRIBUNE.COM
The African Union’s envoy for the Horn of Africa is warning that there is a short “window of opportunity” and little time to reverse the crisis in northern Ethiopia which has drastically deteriorated in recent weeks...This deal is a big win for Abiya, if materialized
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But the west will engineer it with outcome they want. That is way they picked up TPLF over the Oromo. So you really know it gone be north. Any change will no be better for Somalis. Do not wish unknown., the guy with Muslim father maybe the better time.
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2 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:Galbeedi,
A Somali has no future in Ethiopia and Muslims will not be given authority over historically Christian land. Any Ethiopian state has been and will always be hostile to Somalis.
You are right Tigray does not have the capacity to march to Addis by itself and take over the reins of the state. To his credit, Abiy has put the West in an awkward position, they have a choice between siding with him or watching the disintegrations. Siding with Abiy means there is no one doing their dirty work in the region, in other words, there is no Zenawi, and not siding with him will certainly lead to some sort of confederation with a weak central government, and a strong periphery that will dedicate the center, or simply outright secession. Tigray and in effect other regions will not settle for a very centralized state.
If this conflict showed anything, it is that no one is in a position to fully realize their goals. Ethiopia might turn out to be like Bosnia, an unhappy between people that hate each other.
Historically christant? Just only the north
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Rooble to release Mukhtar Rooboow
in Politics
Posted
He will not do it. For much he like to help Moqdisho candidates, it will be difficult for them to win this time, only if they line up behind Deni and Maddobe. Just Madoobe elected 6 xildhibaan without Fedral government election committee in place. This is how the selection will end.