As we have all seen in this news clip and others, things are getting from bad to worse in Somaliland for Muuse Biixi. The GX conference in Gacan Libaax has issues a strong communque ever produced by any tribe in Somaliland. Although they mentioned their attachment to the Somaliland project, they were not sentimental like those " Shirs" before them.They were just to their points without missing any words.
Among the tough points that is intended to detrone Muuse Biixi were :
1- The reopening of the constitution.
2-To reintroduce the national charter reached in Borama. Which really means total reconfiguration of the whole Somaliland system. The elders couldn't believe that among the six or so major clans of the land, two of them took 65% of not only political appointees and ministers, but also public servants, police, military and 80% of government contracts. They demanded redistribution of contracts and public appointments.
3-They openly accused the government for inciting and abetting the Ceel Af weyn conflict.
Muuse had tried to postpone or even proclaim the decisions of the "Shir" before the elders state their agreed upon points. He thought that the government financed elders will sway the Shir on his behalve, but this Shir was bigger than any one elder or those sponsored by the Muuse. Some among the Jeegaan were glad or shocked that the GX community did not reject the Somaliland project out right. Why would they?. They know without them there won't be any, but as the Somali saying goes, " Hashaan Gaada Weynow Libaax uga Gaban waayey inaan goroyo Cawl Uga Tagaa Waa Wax Soo Gudhaye". If they decided to close the project, it will not be because of a weak and desperate man like Muuse.
Now, those who are hired to do the government propaganda will tell you that everything fine, yet things are far from over. These elders had demanded action and are not begging anyone. Others from Awdal, Sool, Sanaag and Hargeisa has supported the conclusion of the Shir Tol Wanaaje.
My sources told me that there are other behind the scene decisions that are more dangerous for the future of Muuse that the elders have hidden as plan "B".
Among the plan B is the use of the parliament to impeach Muuse and remove him from power in order to save the project and avoid a civil war among the Habro. There are also other plan C and D prepared by the politicians inside the GX shir.
According to news reports there is growing disagreements between vice president C/raxman Zaylici and Muuse Biixi in Hargeisa. This problems were always there even before the campaign of 2017 started. When Muuse was campaigning to take over the Kulmiye party through every means possible , Zaylici was one of those who considered to b hindreing his power grab. While Zaylici was vice president to Ahmed Siilaanyo, Muuse decided to push Zaylici out of the Kulmiye leadership, and even making him the fourth deputy chairman. He even showed him disrespect during public meeting.
All that changed when Zaylici used police and RRU to hold party meeting by force and helped Muuse purge his opponents with the power of the administration. With that move Zaylici decided to be vice president for the second time which was unusual for a man to be deputy to two different men. The honorable thing was to run and accept defeat. With Zaylici on board Muuse also bribed and got the support of Saleebaan Cali Koore , Faratoon and others from Sool. He had already subdued and scared the senile Ahmed Siilaanyo with petro bombings in Hargeisa.
Those of you who are in North America probably remember how Trump was uncomfortable with presence of Mike Pence while the impeachment issues were over his head. There were even reports about Mr. Pence organizing political action committees for 2020. I am not saying that Zaylici has any planes to take over. In facts, he is one of those who are very comfortable for what they got, mainly, the house , the salary and the appointments of Awdalites in position of power on his behalf. In other words, he is not a man of ambition. Nin Han Weyn Ma Ahan.
Yet, Muuse worries too much these days. Among the issues that are aggravating the relationship is that Zaylici couldn't help him in any shape or form against the gathering of the storm from the east. Although Zaylici is a loyal soldier who will do whatever is requested from him, his main concern is probably to keep his men in the cabinet and get few contracts. In clan politics, one must be at least in charge of the political machinations of his region.
The latest reports say, some of the men from Zaylici camp had to leave and make way to former UDUB men. Among them will be Ahmed H. dahir while the Dila community might get a new minister to quell the uprising. As we speak , their was tire burning and demonstration in Dila today. In other words, most of the phoney Kulmiye men will be thrown out and Zaylici and company will be side lined. The local report says Ahmed Samatar is racing to Hargeisa to save his nephew who has replaced him. Also Zaylici fears that if Samatar and his nephew are thrown out , he might take a microphone as usual and bash Muuse in the media.
For the opposition, Zaylici must be persuaded to help the impeachment of Biixi. If I were the GX elders, I would push the issue even further and call another consultation and Shir among the clans and implement their second or third strategy .
Impeachment strategy inside the parliament.
The people inside the parliament do not represent political parties anymore. Everyone is representing his own interest and if enough money is found, just like those in Mogadishu, a motion could be started to impeach Muuse Biixi. There is already a move inside the Guurti to throw out Saleebaan Gaal who has failed miserably the duty of the Guurti to reconcile tribal conflicts. " Ma Naxe " Saleebaan is senile just like his cousin Siilaanyo , but he doesn't have any money to bribe anyone. Ahmed Siilaanyo was shrewd and calculating. He knew that the tribe and the people in Somaliland were hungry and unemployed, so he used the public purse to nurture his supporters and opponents. When I asked the insiders wh7 people tolerated the corruption and nepotism of Siilaano?, the answer was obvious. Siilaanyo bribed everyone with public money. Before him, the member of parliament used to make $500 dollars a month. With Siilaanyo, the basic salary became $3000 with benefited along office expenses, and at the end of the month , the parliamentarians were paid $5000 dollars.
Before Siilaanyo, the ministers were paid $500 dollars and other benefits along a luxury car , chauffeur and some small office allowances. With Siilaanyo the basic salary went to $2300, fuel, office allowances and up two ministerial advisers paid each $5000. Those adviser money was pocketed by the minister and hired one of his family man for small salary. Those who were dismissed were allowed to stay in the payroll. That is why everyone in Somaliland politics supported to extend the rule of Siilaanyo to seven years and half. Now, all that money is gone. The five to seven year plan donors financed had finished and Somali regional governments and others are squeezing the few dollars. People involved with donor community believe that it is Somalia that needs capacity building and Somaliland must get less than before.
If everyone votes along clan lines, plus the opposition, Muuse could be impeached tomorrow.
Some of the major demands must be that the Jeegaan must vacate the foreign ministry and the military chief immediately, and any shuffle that doesn't send to retirement the old tribal man called Nuux Taani will be useless. How can a man be commander the army for 25 years. Even the TPLF has vacated that post let alone a tribe.
Folks, things are hot in this summer in Somaliland. I will be offering my services to the opposition how to impeach and remove Muuse so we can all relax .
It is a well known phenomena that weak and insecure leaders leaders always surround themselves with yes men, political operatives, family members and some ideologies. Among these , very few are willing to tell the leader what is going on or the real news.
According to experts, it is a challenge for a leaders to escape and get away from these manufactured good news offered by tribal family members and yes men with no dignity or prestige to protect.
Muuse Biixi is a poster child of the leaders who surround themselves with amateurs , friends and family. He has been in power for six months, yet his cabinet and policy makers had failed him in every aspect of the administration. From foreign policy, economic, social and cultural issues , to security , Muuse Biixi has failed miserably.
He seems as someone who is at the end of his term just after six months. There is a war in east, tribal conflict in Sanaag, war of words with international community and division at the home front. All those problems coupled with economic stagnation and inflation.
As the American game show goes, Muuse want to buy a vowel or a cabinet shuffle to buy some time and distract the gullible. As they say, shuffling chairs at the deck of titanic will not save the ship from sinking. Just like Muuse, his cabinet has failed on everything they touched for the last six months.
In order to see their failures let us grade the cabinet of the Jeegaan administration. We will divide them in few groups or categories.
1-The Jeegaan cabinet memberst
These are people selected either as family, friends and insiders or Jeegaan clan family. The leading men among these are: the foreign minister , interior , transport and road building minister , broadcasting , livestock and fishery, and finally the labour minister whose job is not even defined. The director of labour agency, the young Sharmaarke, does most of the work regarding public servants , job training and all labour management issues. She is probably there because of clan quota.
Sacad Ali Shire: this man has failed on everything he touched for the last 24 months. His corrupt DP World moves to sell shares to Ethiopia and open military base in Berbera for UAE ended up in failure. He is changing the contracts as time goes with goal posts moving. We have all seen the yellow colored papers he sent to the UN envoy Michael Keating , with no coherent strategy or message , other than to sue the UN envoy. Add that to his failure to negotiate anyone in the region. This man has closed every door and there is no way out. In the real world this guy should have been fired long ago, yet he is still here. I expect him to be fired in the next shuffle.
Rumor has it that the good proff. Samatar is finally called out for help. Since there is no one to speak or d'efend Biixi, he needs some talking heads with big mouths in the media to save the sinking ship. As we all know there is no single Jeegaan member who has any credibility to defend Muuse Biixi. In Awdal, there is no one who would like to associate to Muuse including his ministers. From the opposition clans, there are no any heavy weight ministers to speak about the government and their plans. Other than Faysal Waraabe, there is no one to help him, and if Faysal acts like an opposition and openly attacks him, Biixi will sink quickly. Last time, it was Sacad Shire and Mohamed Kaahin who vetoed the inclusion of Samatar in the cabinet, yet they leaked false narrative to the media saying that both UAE And Ethiopia objected Samatar as foreign minister.
Mohamed Kaahin Ahmed: This man never managed or run anything in his life. Like Muuse, he is a tribal ideologue, yet he couldn't even resolve anything including tribal issues which is his main stable in life. During the Ceel Af weyn conflict he was sent there twice to settle a tribal conflict which involved with his own clansmen and those from Bohol community. Twice he failed. If an interior minister can not resolve a simple tribal conflict that involves his local tribe , what is the use of keeping him in the cabinet. Another failure among the Jeegaan.
If my sources are correct, He will be replaced by someone from the West Burco to reduce tension and buy some time as storm gathers in Sanaag. Likely candidate would be Cali Waran Cade, a greedy individual who is used and discarded at will by the Jeegaan for the last seven years, yet today, Waran Cadde is much needed than ever before. Another possible candidate is Mohamed N. Caraale Duur.
C/raxman Guri Barwaaqo: The broadcasting minister is well known as the man who insulted and agonized many women in Hargeisa who openly demanded his resignation after his books became public. The uproar from the South Hargeisa women should have been honored , and Guribarwaaqo fired. The traditional Somali culture dignifies the honor of our women and no one should be allowed to demean and insult them in any book. Muuse Kept him close because of tribal ideology. I hate to say this , but at least two people in Calgary who knows him told me that the guy has spend in his own basement for the last 25 years. Some even consider him an antisocial recluse who should never been in any management position. He inked his tribal " Fadhi Ku Dirir" imagination and hatred of others in to a tribal books. .
He will be either discarded or banished to one of those useless ministers. Who knows, our own friend OOdweyne sponsored by Cawil Mucjiso could end up as the minister of " Warfaafinta iyo Hanuunuta".
Biixi, Ina Kaahin, and Guri Balaayo share the same evil and hatred based ideology against other tribes as the basis of their government policy. That is why Muuse Biixi couldn't hide his hatred when he openly said in public the false notion that his ancestors defeated the D block clan and will do so again. Everyone knows that the men from Hargeisa west or Gabiley never set foot in Nugaal Valley, Howd , Gaashaamo or " Carro Daanood" during the clashes of Somali tribal wars of last century, yet he decided to flame the tribal war of the Sool region by his reckless statements which is probably encouraged by the writings of Guri Balaayo.
By that statement and encouragement from Guri Barwaaqo, the Tukaraq conflict became a tribal war. By the prediction of most people, the only way that conflict could be resolved will be either the demise of Muuse and his government, or withdrawal and peace with Puntland. . It may cool down a bit, but unless the actors like Muuse are removed , expect a long dragged conflict. The Tigray boss who used to order Somalis is no longer there and the federal government is very weak to affect any change.
Abokor Cusman, the transport minister: This guy earned his cabinet post ahead of everyone else. He was the man who cordinated the Hargeisa fire bombing that scared Ahmed Siilaanyo clan and helped mMuuse secure the candidacy of the party. He was convicted by a court for terrorism related attacks including having an armed militia in his own house. Yet , he was released from the jail after his elders intervened. It is the typical ways the system works (Beeshu waxay rabtaa in Wiilka la noo soo daayo). According to the law of the land, as a convicted felon, he shouldn't be holding any cabinet positions. It is a Jeegaan rule. It is the typical Somali court sysstem led by tribes.
Did you hear about the incident between Khayre and C/raxman C/shakuur?. The HAG elders went to Khayre and demanded his release.
Khayre: Adeerayaal Soo dhawaada aan wada Hadalee.
HAG elders: Adeer Fadhiisan mayno ilaa nikaas la soo daayo.
Khayre: Adeer Nimku Dawlad buu u xidhan yahay bal Fadiistta.
HAG elders: Adeer , Illahay Baanu Ku Dhaaranaye, Fadhiisan mayno e, ninka soo daa oo nagu dar. Anagaa soo celinaynee.
Khayre: Bal waayahay soo celiya wakhtiga Maxakamada.
Here you go tribes interfering government business as usual.
When people asked Mr. Abokor about the transfer of the air controllers from Nairobi to Mogadishu, he said " I just saw the news from the TV". Another failure. As per agreement control towers supposed to be built by Turkey and coordinate. Another failure of the Jeegaan tribe. Since that ministry attracts a lot money for development, Muuse might keep him their to share the profit.
HAssan Gaafaadhi, minister of fisheries and livestock: This guy who is from east Burco is probably one of the few competent ministers among the Jeegaan. As a former chair of the Rays party and director of an NGO , he is a well connected guy who might be elevated in the next shuffle. The only issues is Muuse can't coexist with those who have higher intellect or prestige than himself . He might become the next finance minister and replace the " Cawaandi" kid from South Hargeisa.
More than half of the cabinet is Jeegaan but, I just selected those whose influence is affecting people in terms of life, liberty , peace and war. Now, let me point anther group who might not be Jeegaan clan family, but were selected In tribal and backward fashion.
2-Those nominated directly by tribal Suldaans or the "Cawaandiyiin".
This are men who were unknown to everyone before they were appointed in this big portafolios. Some were lower level public servants, like directors , emergency room doctors, and marley diaspora members who were elevated on behalf of their Suldaan .to fill the sub clan position.
The four appointed by the Suldaans are:
Defence minister Ahmed Ciise from East Sanaag.
Finance of minister Yusuf Mohamed Cabdi, from South Hargeisa.
Minister of N. planning Cawaale Ahmed Shirwac, Awdal/Gabiley.
Minister of health Dr. Hassan Ismail Yusuf, West Burco.
The defence minister was a member of east Sanaag community that opposed Somaliland just few years ago. Although that might not be an issues and people come and ago these days, the road he took to join the Jeegaan government was a strange one. His own community --East Sanaag--did not participate in the election of 2017, but his Suldaan took a cash load of money and single handedly proclaimed his attachment to Kulmiye and the Jeegaa project, and was rewarded to bring his own man. The mister literally flew from Australia to Hargeisa for the first time to meet Biixi and joined the cabinet.
As expected, he is riding his landcruiser while the war in the east is waged by the Jeegaan military commanders. This fool accepted a portfolio that is directly engaged in war with his own brethren in Sool while sipping tea in Hargeisa. By far, he got the worst job of all, especially from someone who is from Sool and Sanaag. Like a mercenary, he came, he saw and he joined the war effort The worst of all, he doesn't have any connection or stature to stop wars, reconcile tribal issues or fix real problems in his own native Sanaag. If he had any influence , he would had objected a war within days of being appointed minister.
The finance minister was a young man who worked at the finance ministry for many years. We all know there is a huge difference between being a bureaucrat and political positions. Typically, you wouldn't appoint a mid level director to the one of the most important cabinet posts which needs political experience. Here , us usual, Muuse was looking someone to sign big cheques for his " Palace ministry". Certainly this guy did not disappoint . He gave Muuse more than $13 million dollars from the annual budget. This young man was recommended by not other than Suldaan Mohamed C/qaadir and Faysal Waraabe.The only day he opened his mouth, he insulted the people of Sool accusim the of low moral characters by importing illegal goods to land.
He might be replaced by another politician probably " Ina Indha Yare" a South Hargeisa community member who is member of the executive committee of Wadani party, or Gaafaadhi, the east Burco man who runs fisheries.
The Health minister is a doctor who never involved any politics. He was a doctor in Arabsiyo town just 20 miles west of Hargeisa. Just after the election of 2017 when tensions were high among Waddani and large members of West Burco community, Muse Biixi met Suldaan C/qani, the most senior Suldaan of that community and asked him for help to calm down the waters. In exchange , the Suldaan brought this doctor to fill his position. Since health care is one of the main ministeries financed by international donors, this doctor is tasked to feed the hungry people associated with the Suldaan.
Finally, minister Cawaale--Wasiirka Qorsheynta-- is from the diaspora who involved Somaliland politics only for the last few years after becoming a lieutenant for Proff. Ahmed Samatar. Like most Awdalites , he is qualified , but does not have any prior experience of politics, and the only reason he joined the Jeegaan cabinet were he was a replacement for Samatar. Suldaan Jaamac Samatar, who is the cousin of Ahmed Samatar were not happy after Ahmed Samatar was rejected by the Jeegaan members especially Mohamed Kahin and Sacad Cali Shire. To add insult to injury they wanted Samater to be minister of international relations and planning. The jeegaan wanted someone to find bags of money from the donors while keeping all the power to themselves.
Samatar got angry and left to Djibouti. The Suldanns interfered and Samatar was told that the UAE who is involved with huge deals want to deal with Sacad Shire to finish the DP World issue, and other false excuses to calm down Samatar and keep him on board. Any way, Samatar left and went to his Minnesota cave angry and disappointed. So, for consolation, Suldaan Samatar brought this young man to fill the place for the sub clan. The problem is that all the Kulmiye heavyweights of AWdal were discarded after they fought the election with him. C/laahi Habane (C/laahi Dheere), the most experienced Awdal politician was left out as Axmed Xaaji Daahir and others.
If Wabar shows up and things get hot in Awdal, there is no one to help him calm down the waters this time around while other angry sub clans might even join the rebellion.
As Vice president of Puntland , Cumar Camey said, Muuse might not survive another six months with the cabinet he has as major issues got bigger daily. Either he will keep the Jeegaan and collapse or buy some time with new cabinet and new faces who might fetch for him in the public. My guess is he will shuffle the cabinet within this month and buy sometime.
The RRU Somaliland forces are trained to intimidate, maim , beet and even kill people. This forces are similar to the Liyuu police of zone five or even worse in some instances.Western donors, especially US have paid millions and created these forces to engage terrorist organizations and armed grouped connected to them. Yey , in Somaliland, they are used for tribal ad personal reasons.
If a councilman accused the government of selling public land or denying people their to own their property, an RRU force will descent to his house four in the morning, and beat everyone including women and children before taking everyone to jail. They collectively punish everyone in order to intimidate everyone. Somali guerrilla movements opposed Siyaad Barre for crimes much smaller than this. THe RRU was created under Siilaanyo administration, and most of the members are from exclusive clans that abuse people. THis cowards will soon create a fertile environment for local people to defend themselves. This are worse than the so called " Koofiyad Cas" Somalia.
History repeats itself , but as long as the person doing the crime is from Hargeisa and not from Gaalkacayo, all is fine. That is the moral foundation of the Jeegaan and their apologists.
This is one of the main reasons the people of Awdal will never get capable people who would advocate for their issues.
I did talk to someone last week about the drought issues and encouraged him to speak up about the plight of the people. He said If I go the the microphone and blame the government for their lack of mitigating this consecutive droughts in the region, I am sure that someone, especially an elder will speak after me and say, " Waxaan dawlada ka raali gelinayaa hadalkii dhaliisha ahaa uu sidaayey Ina hebel".
This Ahmed Samaale gentleman, although not an elder, is probably the typical people I did mention. Rather than address the drought issue, he is barking to the wrong guy. "Waxa uu madaxweynaha ka raali gelinayaa hadalkii Ahmed Saciid Cige ". The people in the coast need help to establish fishing communities and other life sustaining things like water reservoirs and small scale ports for trade.
As you usual every development goes to the Jeegaan . Here , another fishing community in Berbera--where else. Zaylici, the fool that never learns anything , started again his usual job of being the scissorman (Maqasle) of cutting ribbons in Jeegaan land.
It is Lughaya that needs these things.