Madaxweyne, Rag Cawaandiyiin ah ayaad wasiiro u magacawday, hase yeeshee ma joogi donaan?
As we have all seen in this news clip and others, things are getting from bad to worse in Somaliland for Muuse Biixi. The GX conference in Gacan Libaax has issues a strong communque ever produced by any tribe in Somaliland. Although they mentioned their attachment to the Somaliland project, they were not sentimental like those " Shirs" before them.They were just to their points without missing any words.
Among the tough points that is intended to detrone Muuse Biixi were :
1- The reopening of the constitution.
2-To reintroduce the national charter reached in Borama. Which really means total reconfiguration of the whole Somaliland system. The elders couldn't believe that among the six or so major clans of the land, two of them took 65% of not only political appointees and ministers, but also public servants, police, military and 80% of government contracts. They demanded redistribution of contracts and public appointments.
3-They openly accused the government for inciting and abetting the Ceel Af weyn conflict.
Muuse had tried to postpone or even proclaim the decisions of the "Shir" before the elders state their agreed upon points. He thought that the government financed elders will sway the Shir on his behalve, but this Shir was bigger than any one elder or those sponsored by the Muuse. Some among the Jeegaan were glad or shocked that the GX community did not reject the Somaliland project out right. Why would they?. They know without them there won't be any, but as the Somali saying goes, " Hashaan Gaada Weynow Libaax uga Gaban waayey inaan goroyo Cawl Uga Tagaa Waa Wax Soo Gudhaye". If they decided to close the project, it will not be because of a weak and desperate man like Muuse.
Now, those who are hired to do the government propaganda will tell you that everything fine, yet things are far from over. These elders had demanded action and are not begging anyone. Others from Awdal, Sool, Sanaag and Hargeisa has supported the conclusion of the Shir Tol Wanaaje.
My sources told me that there are other behind the scene decisions that are more dangerous for the future of Muuse that the elders have hidden as plan "B".
Among the plan B is the use of the parliament to impeach Muuse and remove him from power in order to save the project and avoid a civil war among the Habro. There are also other plan C and D prepared by the politicians inside the GX shir.
According to news reports there is growing disagreements between vice president C/raxman Zaylici and Muuse Biixi in Hargeisa. This problems were always there even before the campaign of 2017 started. When Muuse was campaigning to take over the Kulmiye party through every means possible , Zaylici was one of those who considered to b hindreing his power grab. While Zaylici was vice president to Ahmed Siilaanyo, Muuse decided to push Zaylici out of the Kulmiye leadership, and even making him the fourth deputy chairman. He even showed him disrespect during public meeting.
All that changed when Zaylici used police and RRU to hold party meeting by force and helped Muuse purge his opponents with the power of the administration. With that move Zaylici decided to be vice president for the second time which was unusual for a man to be deputy to two different men. The honorable thing was to run and accept defeat. With Zaylici on board Muuse also bribed and got the support of Saleebaan Cali Koore , Faratoon and others from Sool. He had already subdued and scared the senile Ahmed Siilaanyo with petro bombings in Hargeisa.
Those of you who are in North America probably remember how Trump was uncomfortable with presence of Mike Pence while the impeachment issues were over his head. There were even reports about Mr. Pence organizing political action committees for 2020. I am not saying that Zaylici has any planes to take over. In facts, he is one of those who are very comfortable for what they got, mainly, the house , the salary and the appointments of Awdalites in position of power on his behalf. In other words, he is not a man of ambition. Nin Han Weyn Ma Ahan.
Yet, Muuse worries too much these days. Among the issues that are aggravating the relationship is that Zaylici couldn't help him in any shape or form against the gathering of the storm from the east. Although Zaylici is a loyal soldier who will do whatever is requested from him, his main concern is probably to keep his men in the cabinet and get few contracts. In clan politics, one must be at least in charge of the political machinations of his region.
The latest reports say, some of the men from Zaylici camp had to leave and make way to former UDUB men. Among them will be Ahmed H. dahir while the Dila community might get a new minister to quell the uprising. As we speak , their was tire burning and demonstration in Dila today. In other words, most of the phoney Kulmiye men will be thrown out and Zaylici and company will be side lined. The local report says Ahmed Samatar is racing to Hargeisa to save his nephew who has replaced him. Also Zaylici fears that if Samatar and his nephew are thrown out , he might take a microphone as usual and bash Muuse in the media.
For the opposition, Zaylici must be persuaded to help the impeachment of Biixi. If I were the GX elders, I would push the issue even further and call another consultation and Shir among the clans and implement their second or third strategy .
Impeachment strategy inside the parliament.
The people inside the parliament do not represent political parties anymore. Everyone is representing his own interest and if enough money is found, just like those in Mogadishu, a motion could be started to impeach Muuse Biixi. There is already a move inside the Guurti to throw out Saleebaan Gaal who has failed miserably the duty of the Guurti to reconcile tribal conflicts. " Ma Naxe " Saleebaan is senile just like his cousin Siilaanyo , but he doesn't have any money to bribe anyone. Ahmed Siilaanyo was shrewd and calculating. He knew that the tribe and the people in Somaliland were hungry and unemployed, so he used the public purse to nurture his supporters and opponents. When I asked the insiders wh7 people tolerated the corruption and nepotism of Siilaano?, the answer was obvious. Siilaanyo bribed everyone with public money. Before him, the member of parliament used to make $500 dollars a month. With Siilaanyo, the basic salary became $3000 with benefited along office expenses, and at the end of the month , the parliamentarians were paid $5000 dollars.
Before Siilaanyo, the ministers were paid $500 dollars and other benefits along a luxury car , chauffeur and some small office allowances. With Siilaanyo the basic salary went to $2300, fuel, office allowances and up two ministerial advisers paid each $5000. Those adviser money was pocketed by the minister and hired one of his family man for small salary. Those who were dismissed were allowed to stay in the payroll. That is why everyone in Somaliland politics supported to extend the rule of Siilaanyo to seven years and half. Now, all that money is gone. The five to seven year plan donors financed had finished and Somali regional governments and others are squeezing the few dollars. People involved with donor community believe that it is Somalia that needs capacity building and Somaliland must get less than before.
If everyone votes along clan lines, plus the opposition, Muuse could be impeached tomorrow.
Some of the major demands must be that the Jeegaan must vacate the foreign ministry and the military chief immediately, and any shuffle that doesn't send to retirement the old tribal man called Nuux Taani will be useless. How can a man be commander the army for 25 years. Even the TPLF has vacated that post let alone a tribe.
Folks, things are hot in this summer in Somaliland. I will be offering my services to the opposition how to impeach and remove Muuse so we can all relax .
I made a mistake yesterday by taking about the number of dead on both sides. It is Somalis dying on both side, and it will not heal or help the issues facing this region.
So, in order to find real solutions today , we will focus on the origins of this war .
The rise of the warlord.
Unlike South Central Somalia, Somaliland was always ruled or led by former politicians, public servants and traditional leaders. Ten or fifteen years ago, it was difficult or almost impossible for the types of Muuse Biixi to join the cabinet let alone a presidential candidate. The people had moved on and decided to build a new future without former guarilla members or those who took part the civil war of the nineteen nineties.
Rather than dwell on the past, people had opted for peace and institution building. While tribal problems remain in any Somali society, it's effects on people were diminishing, until Biixi and company showed up. Ahmed Siilaanyo, as former Somali minister and SNM leader, had both the political background and qualifications to seek the leadership of Somaliland. Yet, the former rebels forgot that the past warfare history will not be the guiding principle in a region inhabited by diverse tribes. They forgot that in Somalia , no tribe can defeat or eliminated another tribe despite their military or economic power.
We do not have time or enough ink to explain how a former warlord who participated the civil wars of Somaliland happen to be the candidate. It was through bribe, tribalism, intimidation , abuse of public purse and other hidden crimes that enabled an unrepentant warlord to take center stage. Regardless of how many times they call him Mr.president, Muuse Biixi will never be a leader of anything let alone of Somaliland. Once a warlord with blood in his hands will be a warlord. Just like a gangster will gold chains and luxury cars , honor and prestige can not be bought by the likes of Muuse Biixi.
The False commander.
Anyone who has done basic research knows that Muuse biixi was never been a colonel of any army. He never commanded any contingent of Somali army nor did he participated the Somali-Ethiopia war of 1977. Unlike what the Hargeisa fan club says, he wasn't a pilot . He was trained as a air navigation officer. As soon as he was elected, everyone said that since a former officer and fighter is in charge he will put fear to his enemies. Commanding paramilitary rebels and taking part in communal civil war will not make one a military commander or tough politician. kornayl Mujaahid ah ayaa madaxweyne noo ah". They forgot that it is the peace that nurtured Somaliland not Muuse Biixi.
Now, how did we ended up a war in Sool, insurgency in Sanaag and dysfunction in Hargeisa.
Everyone knows that through bombing and intimidation of the frail and old Siilaanyo, Muuse took over the Kulmiye party. After he stole the election, rather than bring the fragmented communities together, he decided to set up a Jeegaan dominated cabinet. When people complained, he dismissed these complaints and started to oppress those who opposed him. People who should have corrected him encouraged him to rule by decree. Even intellectuals and writers like Boobe Yuusuf Ducaale , said, " Somaliland needs a dictator to fix things".
As Boobe and others encouraged him to be a dictator, Muuse acted like one and arrested those who criticized him in face books and those who wrote unflattering things. Despite the oppression, the people never badged and openly rejected his presidency and the manner he won the election. Since Faysal Waraabe and others called him a tough colonel, he decided to up the ante and create a real war without thinking the consequences.
Fast forward to Tukaraq and the unprovoked war.
Traditionally, the Puntlanders always had a soft spot for the Hargeisa Habro. You would rarely see those from Puntland openly attacking or putting down Somaliland. In fact, their leaders try to emulate and build relationships with them. Since everyone says that Somaliland achieved domestic peace and despite it's electoral dysfunction, it was a model others like Puntlanders wanted to follow .
As I was discussing the Tukaraq issue, one Puntalder told me that they never preoccupied or challenged Somaliand. We were mostly focused Mogadishu, the federal system, the foreign aid that all goes to Mogadishu and HAg ( Waar xamar iyo xagaa ayaanu mashqull ku nahay, oo siyaasada yadu xagan uma soo jeedin, Farmaajo markuu yimid waxooga dhaqaalaha horumarineed ayaanu ka daddasanaynay, markaasu ninkan waalani na soo aaday). Also, Ethiopian policies discourages it's vassel regions to fight one another. Yet, Biixi decided to go against a neighbor that doesn't want war.
Anyway, Michael Keaton went to Garoowe last week and discussed the Tukaraq issue with C/weli Gaas. The Puntland leader might be accused of many things, but politically , he is not naive or amateur. He is educated enough and he knows well the diplomacy games. When the UN envoy Mr. Keating asked to find peaceful solutions for the Tukaraq issue, C/weli said, " I know that as an envoy you want a peaceful Somali both in the South and in this region and we will fulfil our responsibilities to achieve this peace". He continued, "We want total peace in the region, we will not target or claim Laascaanood anymore" he continued, " We want the locals to decide their fate , and will no longer interfere with that region". In return C/weli wanted to keep the status quo of the old and let everyone collect their taxes in their outposts.
Mr. Keating could not believe that the a difficult issue of Tukaraq could be resolved quickly. Then few days ago Mr. Keating reached Hargeisa and met Ina Biixi. He told him the good news from Garoowe that Puntland is no longer interested in Sool or Laascaanood and the armies must return to their original posts for total peace. To the surprise of Mr. Keating, Muuse Biixi said, " withdrawing from Tukaraq is like withdrawing from Hargeisa". Mr. Keating was shocked that despite the good will, muuse is an out of touch man who doesn't even understand basic diplomatic games. All he supposed to say was that he will consider this good will gesture from Puntland and will reciprocate in the future. He could have went with flow and wait the real changes from Puntland.
C/weli Gaas 2 Biixi 0.
Well, after Mr. Keating left Hargeisa , the war broke out. When Djibouti was fighting a do or die battle against UAE, Biixi counted the Arabs to weaken Cumar Ghelle. Three weeks ago a delegation from Dubai came to Hargeisa and no one in the media saw him. You remember about the ghost delegation that no one saw except Biixi's spokesman? Well, C/raxman Boreh was one of them and for fear of Djibouti they hidden from the public eye. The diplomatic disaster of Biixi continues. Ghelle 2 Biixi o. Who is advising this man.
Yet, the biggest problem of Somaliland today is that there is no daylight between the man selling the Qat in downtown Hargeisa and the leadership including the president. They are all talking the same language. A tribally motivated man in the internet or a man in market might say , " We will capture Garoowe " Garoowe ayaanu soo qaban oo xuduudaanu Soo Xidhi" and the leader, Muuse, might repeat that boasting talk of the market to the media.
Our resident in SOL OOdweyne might say we expelled "Afweyne iyo Faqash" , and Biixi will repeat that same sentence. I was shocked when I listened his speech about " Adeerkood Afweyne Sidaanu u eryeney" by indirectly talking about the tribal issues of the D block. Mind you that these Puntlanders also fought Siyaad Barre just like SNM. That same leader is also the tribal uncle of the Sool community that is fighting alongside Somaliland, yet Ina Biixi spews tribal polemic just like street guy.
Since his election, it became the norm. A loser named Guri barwaaqo , who used to live here in Calgary, Alberta wrote books just like those in the Hargeisa market and sold them as academic literacy. By the way, due to that book and the arrest and humiliation of Nimco Qorane might bring down the biixi government than anyone else. The " Ciidagale" community is the moral compass of the Habro. Despite the wars they fought against Cigaal, they supported him later and helped build institutions with likes of Xaaji Cabdi Waraabe. When Rayaale took over, they supported despite the tribal campaign against him, and when Siilaanyo came , they stood by him and spoke loudly in their efforts to keep the Somaliland system.
The South Hargeisa community never complains about not getting ministers or government posts. When Biixi stole the election, they were the first to break ranks at the opposition and to call for calm and peaceful transition. After Biixi ignored their plea to fire the minister who insulted their women in his books, they decided to get rid of Biixi. Now, they fully joined the anti Biixi campaign, and with their credibility and elequency, Biixi will be finished. The West Burco might got the muscle of the Habro, but the Salaxley community is the brain.
Some of us already knew him as former warlord and warmonger, but today , the international community has discovered that Somaliland , the land of peace in the region, had been taken over by a war monger who may destroy everything with less than a year.
Everyone knows that Somaliland will never be the same after Ina Biixi. We know that every region will eventually join the federal project sooner or later, yet some us were expecting a peaceful transition from the Jeegaan Government to federal system. Popular anger and anti Jeegan riots had started from Ceerigaabo, Burco and will reach Awdal and other regions soon.
Rather than throw the Somaliland baby with Biixi bath water, Somaliland could be saved from total collapse. He could resign and call new elections within next six months . The centralised system of ruling over other regions must be dismantled. Every region must elect its own governor , and people must be given the freedom to speak against the project. The genie of Somaliland is out of the box. You can't recycle the failed policy of Somalia of 1989 with steroids.
The crime that will bring down Somaliland did not happen today. It happened the day tens of thousands honored a man who had blood in his hands. We forgave your crimes in order to gain communal harmony and create a government institution to prosper in peace, yet you decided to bring back the old warlord for tribal reasons.
Now, you still have a chance to rectify the mistakes and remove the warlord before we all sink in the political ocean . We also know that Biixi doesn't have a tribal muscle or land to control.
Here is the map.
We are calling for peace and the resignation of Ina Biixi.
The RRU Somaliland forces are trained to intimidate, maim , beet and even kill people. This forces are similar to the Liyuu police of zone five or even worse in some instances.Western donors, especially US have paid millions and created these forces to engage terrorist organizations and armed grouped connected to them. Yey , in Somaliland, they are used for tribal ad personal reasons.
If a councilman accused the government of selling public land or denying people their to own their property, an RRU force will descent to his house four in the morning, and beat everyone including women and children before taking everyone to jail. They collectively punish everyone in order to intimidate everyone. Somali guerrilla movements opposed Siyaad Barre for crimes much smaller than this. THe RRU was created under Siilaanyo administration, and most of the members are from exclusive clans that abuse people. THis cowards will soon create a fertile environment for local people to defend themselves. This are worse than the so called " Koofiyad Cas" Somalia.
History repeats itself , but as long as the person doing the crime is from Hargeisa and not from Gaalkacayo, all is fine. That is the moral foundation of the Jeegaan and their apologists.
This is one of the main reasons the people of Awdal will never get capable people who would advocate for their issues.
I did talk to someone last week about the drought issues and encouraged him to speak up about the plight of the people. He said If I go the the microphone and blame the government for their lack of mitigating this consecutive droughts in the region, I am sure that someone, especially an elder will speak after me and say, " Waxaan dawlada ka raali gelinayaa hadalkii dhaliisha ahaa uu sidaayey Ina hebel".
This Ahmed Samaale gentleman, although not an elder, is probably the typical people I did mention. Rather than address the drought issue, he is barking to the wrong guy. "Waxa uu madaxweynaha ka raali gelinayaa hadalkii Ahmed Saciid Cige ". The people in the coast need help to establish fishing communities and other life sustaining things like water reservoirs and small scale ports for trade.
As you usual every development goes to the Jeegaan . Here , another fishing community in Berbera--where else. Zaylici, the fool that never learns anything , started again his usual job of being the scissorman (Maqasle) of cutting ribbons in Jeegaan land.
It is Lughaya that needs these things.