Storm is gathering in Somaliland that might engulf Biixi, Zaylici and Saleebaan Gaal.
It is a well known phenomena that weak and insecure leaders leaders always surround themselves with yes men, political operatives, family members and some ideologies. Among these , very few are willing to tell the leader what is going on or the real news.
According to experts, it is a challenge for a leaders to escape and get away from these manufactured good news offered by tribal family members and yes men with no dignity or prestige to protect.
Muuse Biixi is a poster child of the leaders who surround themselves with amateurs , friends and family. He has been in power for six months, yet his cabinet and policy makers had failed him in every aspect of the administration. From foreign policy, economic, social and cultural issues , to security , Muuse Biixi has failed miserably.
He seems as someone who is at the end of his term just after six months. There is a war in east, tribal conflict in Sanaag, war of words with international community and division at the home front. All those problems coupled with economic stagnation and inflation.
As the American game show goes, Muuse want to buy a vowel or a cabinet shuffle to buy some time and distract the gullible. As they say, shuffling chairs at the deck of titanic will not save the ship from sinking. Just like Muuse, his cabinet has failed on everything they touched for the last six months.
In order to see their failures let us grade the cabinet of the Jeegaan administration. We will divide them in few groups or categories.
1-The Jeegaan cabinet memberst
These are people selected either as family, friends and insiders or Jeegaan clan family. The leading men among these are: the foreign minister , interior , transport and road building minister , broadcasting , livestock and fishery, and finally the labour minister whose job is not even defined. The director of labour agency, the young Sharmaarke, does most of the work regarding public servants , job training and all labour management issues. She is probably there because of clan quota.
Sacad Ali Shire: this man has failed on everything he touched for the last 24 months. His corrupt DP World moves to sell shares to Ethiopia and open military base in Berbera for UAE ended up in failure. He is changing the contracts as time goes with goal posts moving. We have all seen the yellow colored papers he sent to the UN envoy Michael Keating , with no coherent strategy or message , other than to sue the UN envoy. Add that to his failure to negotiate anyone in the region. This man has closed every door and there is no way out. In the real world this guy should have been fired long ago, yet he is still here. I expect him to be fired in the next shuffle.
Rumor has it that the good proff. Samatar is finally called out for help. Since there is no one to speak or d'efend Biixi, he needs some talking heads with big mouths in the media to save the sinking ship. As we all know there is no single Jeegaan member who has any credibility to defend Muuse Biixi. In Awdal, there is no one who would like to associate to Muuse including his ministers. From the opposition clans, there are no any heavy weight ministers to speak about the government and their plans. Other than Faysal Waraabe, there is no one to help him, and if Faysal acts like an opposition and openly attacks him, Biixi will sink quickly. Last time, it was Sacad Shire and Mohamed Kaahin who vetoed the inclusion of Samatar in the cabinet, yet they leaked false narrative to the media saying that both UAE And Ethiopia objected Samatar as foreign minister.
Mohamed Kaahin Ahmed: This man never managed or run anything in his life. Like Muuse, he is a tribal ideologue, yet he couldn't even resolve anything including tribal issues which is his main stable in life. During the Ceel Af weyn conflict he was sent there twice to settle a tribal conflict which involved with his own clansmen and those from Bohol community. Twice he failed. If an interior minister can not resolve a simple tribal conflict that involves his local tribe , what is the use of keeping him in the cabinet. Another failure among the Jeegaan.
If my sources are correct, He will be replaced by someone from the West Burco to reduce tension and buy some time as storm gathers in Sanaag. Likely candidate would be Cali Waran Cade, a greedy individual who is used and discarded at will by the Jeegaan for the last seven years, yet today, Waran Cadde is much needed than ever before. Another possible candidate is Mohamed N. Caraale Duur.
C/raxman Guri Barwaaqo: The broadcasting minister is well known as the man who insulted and agonized many women in Hargeisa who openly demanded his resignation after his books became public. The uproar from the South Hargeisa women should have been honored , and Guribarwaaqo fired. The traditional Somali culture dignifies the honor of our women and no one should be allowed to demean and insult them in any book. Muuse Kept him close because of tribal ideology. I hate to say this , but at least two people in Calgary who knows him told me that the guy has spend in his own basement for the last 25 years. Some even consider him an antisocial recluse who should never been in any management position. He inked his tribal " Fadhi Ku Dirir" imagination and hatred of others in to a tribal books. .
He will be either discarded or banished to one of those useless ministers. Who knows, our own friend OOdweyne sponsored by Cawil Mucjiso could end up as the minister of " Warfaafinta iyo Hanuunuta".
Biixi, Ina Kaahin, and Guri Balaayo share the same evil and hatred based ideology against other tribes as the basis of their government policy. That is why Muuse Biixi couldn't hide his hatred when he openly said in public the false notion that his ancestors defeated the D block clan and will do so again. Everyone knows that the men from Hargeisa west or Gabiley never set foot in Nugaal Valley, Howd , Gaashaamo or " Carro Daanood" during the clashes of Somali tribal wars of last century, yet he decided to flame the tribal war of the Sool region by his reckless statements which is probably encouraged by the writings of Guri Balaayo.
By that statement and encouragement from Guri Barwaaqo, the Tukaraq conflict became a tribal war. By the prediction of most people, the only way that conflict could be resolved will be either the demise of Muuse and his government, or withdrawal and peace with Puntland. . It may cool down a bit, but unless the actors like Muuse are removed , expect a long dragged conflict. The Tigray boss who used to order Somalis is no longer there and the federal government is very weak to affect any change.
Abokor Cusman, the transport minister: This guy earned his cabinet post ahead of everyone else. He was the man who cordinated the Hargeisa fire bombing that scared Ahmed Siilaanyo clan and helped mMuuse secure the candidacy of the party. He was convicted by a court for terrorism related attacks including having an armed militia in his own house. Yet , he was released from the jail after his elders intervened. It is the typical ways the system works (Beeshu waxay rabtaa in Wiilka la noo soo daayo). According to the law of the land, as a convicted felon, he shouldn't be holding any cabinet positions. It is a Jeegaan rule. It is the typical Somali court sysstem led by tribes.
Did you hear about the incident between Khayre and C/raxman C/shakuur?. The HAG elders went to Khayre and demanded his release.
Khayre: Adeerayaal Soo dhawaada aan wada Hadalee.
HAG elders: Adeer Fadhiisan mayno ilaa nikaas la soo daayo.
Khayre: Adeer Nimku Dawlad buu u xidhan yahay bal Fadiistta.
HAG elders: Adeer , Illahay Baanu Ku Dhaaranaye, Fadhiisan mayno e, ninka soo daa oo nagu dar. Anagaa soo celinaynee.
Khayre: Bal waayahay soo celiya wakhtiga Maxakamada.
Here you go tribes interfering government business as usual.
When people asked Mr. Abokor about the transfer of the air controllers from Nairobi to Mogadishu, he said " I just saw the news from the TV". Another failure. As per agreement control towers supposed to be built by Turkey and coordinate. Another failure of the Jeegaan tribe. Since that ministry attracts a lot money for development, Muuse might keep him their to share the profit.
HAssan Gaafaadhi, minister of fisheries and livestock: This guy who is from east Burco is probably one of the few competent ministers among the Jeegaan. As a former chair of the Rays party and director of an NGO , he is a well connected guy who might be elevated in the next shuffle. The only issues is Muuse can't coexist with those who have higher intellect or prestige than himself . He might become the next finance minister and replace the " Cawaandi" kid from South Hargeisa.
More than half of the cabinet is Jeegaan but, I just selected those whose influence is affecting people in terms of life, liberty , peace and war. Now, let me point anther group who might not be Jeegaan clan family, but were selected In tribal and backward fashion.
2-Those nominated directly by tribal Suldaans or the "Cawaandiyiin".
This are men who were unknown to everyone before they were appointed in this big portafolios. Some were lower level public servants, like directors , emergency room doctors, and marley diaspora members who were elevated on behalf of their Suldaan .to fill the sub clan position.
The four appointed by the Suldaans are:
Defence minister Ahmed Ciise from East Sanaag.
Finance of minister Yusuf Mohamed Cabdi, from South Hargeisa.
Minister of N. planning Cawaale Ahmed Shirwac, Awdal/Gabiley.
Minister of health Dr. Hassan Ismail Yusuf, West Burco.
The defence minister was a member of east Sanaag community that opposed Somaliland just few years ago. Although that might not be an issues and people come and ago these days, the road he took to join the Jeegaan government was a strange one. His own community --East Sanaag--did not participate in the election of 2017, but his Suldaan took a cash load of money and single handedly proclaimed his attachment to Kulmiye and the Jeegaa project, and was rewarded to bring his own man. The mister literally flew from Australia to Hargeisa for the first time to meet Biixi and joined the cabinet.
As expected, he is riding his landcruiser while the war in the east is waged by the Jeegaan military commanders. This fool accepted a portfolio that is directly engaged in war with his own brethren in Sool while sipping tea in Hargeisa. By far, he got the worst job of all, especially from someone who is from Sool and Sanaag. Like a mercenary, he came, he saw and he joined the war effort The worst of all, he doesn't have any connection or stature to stop wars, reconcile tribal issues or fix real problems in his own native Sanaag. If he had any influence , he would had objected a war within days of being appointed minister.
The finance minister was a young man who worked at the finance ministry for many years. We all know there is a huge difference between being a bureaucrat and political positions. Typically, you wouldn't appoint a mid level director to the one of the most important cabinet posts which needs political experience. Here , us usual, Muuse was looking someone to sign big cheques for his " Palace ministry". Certainly this guy did not disappoint . He gave Muuse more than $13 million dollars from the annual budget. This young man was recommended by not other than Suldaan Mohamed C/qaadir and Faysal Waraabe.The only day he opened his mouth, he insulted the people of Sool accusim the of low moral characters by importing illegal goods to land.
He might be replaced by another politician probably " Ina Indha Yare" a South Hargeisa community member who is member of the executive committee of Wadani party, or Gaafaadhi, the east Burco man who runs fisheries.
The Health minister is a doctor who never involved any politics. He was a doctor in Arabsiyo town just 20 miles west of Hargeisa. Just after the election of 2017 when tensions were high among Waddani and large members of West Burco community, Muse Biixi met Suldaan C/qani, the most senior Suldaan of that community and asked him for help to calm down the waters. In exchange , the Suldaan brought this doctor to fill his position. Since health care is one of the main ministeries financed by international donors, this doctor is tasked to feed the hungry people associated with the Suldaan.
Finally, minister Cawaale--Wasiirka Qorsheynta-- is from the diaspora who involved Somaliland politics only for the last few years after becoming a lieutenant for Proff. Ahmed Samatar. Like most Awdalites , he is qualified , but does not have any prior experience of politics, and the only reason he joined the Jeegaan cabinet were he was a replacement for Samatar. Suldaan Jaamac Samatar, who is the cousin of Ahmed Samatar were not happy after Ahmed Samatar was rejected by the Jeegaan members especially Mohamed Kahin and Sacad Cali Shire. To add insult to injury they wanted Samater to be minister of international relations and planning. The jeegaan wanted someone to find bags of money from the donors while keeping all the power to themselves.
Samatar got angry and left to Djibouti. The Suldanns interfered and Samatar was told that the UAE who is involved with huge deals want to deal with Sacad Shire to finish the DP World issue, and other false excuses to calm down Samatar and keep him on board. Any way, Samatar left and went to his Minnesota cave angry and disappointed. So, for consolation, Suldaan Samatar brought this young man to fill the place for the sub clan. The problem is that all the Kulmiye heavyweights of AWdal were discarded after they fought the election with him. C/laahi Habane (C/laahi Dheere), the most experienced Awdal politician was left out as Axmed Xaaji Daahir and others.
If Wabar shows up and things get hot in Awdal, there is no one to help him calm down the waters this time around while other angry sub clans might even join the rebellion.
As Vice president of Puntland , Cumar Camey said, Muuse might not survive another six months with the cabinet he has as major issues got bigger daily. Either he will keep the Jeegaan and collapse or buy some time with new cabinet and new faces who might fetch for him in the public. My guess is he will shuffle the cabinet within this month and buy sometime.
I made a mistake yesterday by taking about the number of dead on both sides. It is Somalis dying on both side, and it will not heal or help the issues facing this region.
So, in order to find real solutions today , we will focus on the origins of this war .
The rise of the warlord.
Unlike South Central Somalia, Somaliland was always ruled or led by former politicians, public servants and traditional leaders. Ten or fifteen years ago, it was difficult or almost impossible for the types of Muuse Biixi to join the cabinet let alone a presidential candidate. The people had moved on and decided to build a new future without former guarilla members or those who took part the civil war of the nineteen nineties.
Rather than dwell on the past, people had opted for peace and institution building. While tribal problems remain in any Somali society, it's effects on people were diminishing, until Biixi and company showed up. Ahmed Siilaanyo, as former Somali minister and SNM leader, had both the political background and qualifications to seek the leadership of Somaliland. Yet, the former rebels forgot that the past warfare history will not be the guiding principle in a region inhabited by diverse tribes. They forgot that in Somalia , no tribe can defeat or eliminated another tribe despite their military or economic power.
We do not have time or enough ink to explain how a former warlord who participated the civil wars of Somaliland happen to be the candidate. It was through bribe, tribalism, intimidation , abuse of public purse and other hidden crimes that enabled an unrepentant warlord to take center stage. Regardless of how many times they call him Mr.president, Muuse Biixi will never be a leader of anything let alone of Somaliland. Once a warlord with blood in his hands will be a warlord. Just like a gangster will gold chains and luxury cars , honor and prestige can not be bought by the likes of Muuse Biixi.
The False commander.
Anyone who has done basic research knows that Muuse biixi was never been a colonel of any army. He never commanded any contingent of Somali army nor did he participated the Somali-Ethiopia war of 1977. Unlike what the Hargeisa fan club says, he wasn't a pilot . He was trained as a air navigation officer. As soon as he was elected, everyone said that since a former officer and fighter is in charge he will put fear to his enemies. Commanding paramilitary rebels and taking part in communal civil war will not make one a military commander or tough politician. kornayl Mujaahid ah ayaa madaxweyne noo ah". They forgot that it is the peace that nurtured Somaliland not Muuse Biixi.
Now, how did we ended up a war in Sool, insurgency in Sanaag and dysfunction in Hargeisa.
Everyone knows that through bombing and intimidation of the frail and old Siilaanyo, Muuse took over the Kulmiye party. After he stole the election, rather than bring the fragmented communities together, he decided to set up a Jeegaan dominated cabinet. When people complained, he dismissed these complaints and started to oppress those who opposed him. People who should have corrected him encouraged him to rule by decree. Even intellectuals and writers like Boobe Yuusuf Ducaale , said, " Somaliland needs a dictator to fix things".
As Boobe and others encouraged him to be a dictator, Muuse acted like one and arrested those who criticized him in face books and those who wrote unflattering things. Despite the oppression, the people never badged and openly rejected his presidency and the manner he won the election. Since Faysal Waraabe and others called him a tough colonel, he decided to up the ante and create a real war without thinking the consequences.
Fast forward to Tukaraq and the unprovoked war.
Traditionally, the Puntlanders always had a soft spot for the Hargeisa Habro. You would rarely see those from Puntland openly attacking or putting down Somaliland. In fact, their leaders try to emulate and build relationships with them. Since everyone says that Somaliland achieved domestic peace and despite it's electoral dysfunction, it was a model others like Puntlanders wanted to follow .
As I was discussing the Tukaraq issue, one Puntalder told me that they never preoccupied or challenged Somaliand. We were mostly focused Mogadishu, the federal system, the foreign aid that all goes to Mogadishu and HAg ( Waar xamar iyo xagaa ayaanu mashqull ku nahay, oo siyaasada yadu xagan uma soo jeedin, Farmaajo markuu yimid waxooga dhaqaalaha horumarineed ayaanu ka daddasanaynay, markaasu ninkan waalani na soo aaday). Also, Ethiopian policies discourages it's vassel regions to fight one another. Yet, Biixi decided to go against a neighbor that doesn't want war.
Anyway, Michael Keaton went to Garoowe last week and discussed the Tukaraq issue with C/weli Gaas. The Puntland leader might be accused of many things, but politically , he is not naive or amateur. He is educated enough and he knows well the diplomacy games. When the UN envoy Mr. Keating asked to find peaceful solutions for the Tukaraq issue, C/weli said, " I know that as an envoy you want a peaceful Somali both in the South and in this region and we will fulfil our responsibilities to achieve this peace". He continued, "We want total peace in the region, we will not target or claim Laascaanood anymore" he continued, " We want the locals to decide their fate , and will no longer interfere with that region". In return C/weli wanted to keep the status quo of the old and let everyone collect their taxes in their outposts.
Mr. Keating could not believe that the a difficult issue of Tukaraq could be resolved quickly. Then few days ago Mr. Keating reached Hargeisa and met Ina Biixi. He told him the good news from Garoowe that Puntland is no longer interested in Sool or Laascaanood and the armies must return to their original posts for total peace. To the surprise of Mr. Keating, Muuse Biixi said, " withdrawing from Tukaraq is like withdrawing from Hargeisa". Mr. Keating was shocked that despite the good will, muuse is an out of touch man who doesn't even understand basic diplomatic games. All he supposed to say was that he will consider this good will gesture from Puntland and will reciprocate in the future. He could have went with flow and wait the real changes from Puntland.
C/weli Gaas 2 Biixi 0.
Well, after Mr. Keating left Hargeisa , the war broke out. When Djibouti was fighting a do or die battle against UAE, Biixi counted the Arabs to weaken Cumar Ghelle. Three weeks ago a delegation from Dubai came to Hargeisa and no one in the media saw him. You remember about the ghost delegation that no one saw except Biixi's spokesman? Well, C/raxman Boreh was one of them and for fear of Djibouti they hidden from the public eye. The diplomatic disaster of Biixi continues. Ghelle 2 Biixi o. Who is advising this man.
Yet, the biggest problem of Somaliland today is that there is no daylight between the man selling the Qat in downtown Hargeisa and the leadership including the president. They are all talking the same language. A tribally motivated man in the internet or a man in market might say , " We will capture Garoowe " Garoowe ayaanu soo qaban oo xuduudaanu Soo Xidhi" and the leader, Muuse, might repeat that boasting talk of the market to the media.
Our resident in SOL OOdweyne might say we expelled "Afweyne iyo Faqash" , and Biixi will repeat that same sentence. I was shocked when I listened his speech about " Adeerkood Afweyne Sidaanu u eryeney" by indirectly talking about the tribal issues of the D block. Mind you that these Puntlanders also fought Siyaad Barre just like SNM. That same leader is also the tribal uncle of the Sool community that is fighting alongside Somaliland, yet Ina Biixi spews tribal polemic just like street guy.
Since his election, it became the norm. A loser named Guri barwaaqo , who used to live here in Calgary, Alberta wrote books just like those in the Hargeisa market and sold them as academic literacy. By the way, due to that book and the arrest and humiliation of Nimco Qorane might bring down the biixi government than anyone else. The " Ciidagale" community is the moral compass of the Habro. Despite the wars they fought against Cigaal, they supported him later and helped build institutions with likes of Xaaji Cabdi Waraabe. When Rayaale took over, they supported despite the tribal campaign against him, and when Siilaanyo came , they stood by him and spoke loudly in their efforts to keep the Somaliland system.
The South Hargeisa community never complains about not getting ministers or government posts. When Biixi stole the election, they were the first to break ranks at the opposition and to call for calm and peaceful transition. After Biixi ignored their plea to fire the minister who insulted their women in his books, they decided to get rid of Biixi. Now, they fully joined the anti Biixi campaign, and with their credibility and elequency, Biixi will be finished. The West Burco might got the muscle of the Habro, but the Salaxley community is the brain.
Some of us already knew him as former warlord and warmonger, but today , the international community has discovered that Somaliland , the land of peace in the region, had been taken over by a war monger who may destroy everything with less than a year.
Everyone knows that Somaliland will never be the same after Ina Biixi. We know that every region will eventually join the federal project sooner or later, yet some us were expecting a peaceful transition from the Jeegaan Government to federal system. Popular anger and anti Jeegan riots had started from Ceerigaabo, Burco and will reach Awdal and other regions soon.
Rather than throw the Somaliland baby with Biixi bath water, Somaliland could be saved from total collapse. He could resign and call new elections within next six months . The centralised system of ruling over other regions must be dismantled. Every region must elect its own governor , and people must be given the freedom to speak against the project. The genie of Somaliland is out of the box. You can't recycle the failed policy of Somalia of 1989 with steroids.
The crime that will bring down Somaliland did not happen today. It happened the day tens of thousands honored a man who had blood in his hands. We forgave your crimes in order to gain communal harmony and create a government institution to prosper in peace, yet you decided to bring back the old warlord for tribal reasons.
Now, you still have a chance to rectify the mistakes and remove the warlord before we all sink in the political ocean . We also know that Biixi doesn't have a tribal muscle or land to control.
Here is the map.
We are calling for peace and the resignation of Ina Biixi.
The RRU Somaliland forces are trained to intimidate, maim , beet and even kill people. This forces are similar to the Liyuu police of zone five or even worse in some instances.Western donors, especially US have paid millions and created these forces to engage terrorist organizations and armed grouped connected to them. Yey , in Somaliland, they are used for tribal ad personal reasons.
If a councilman accused the government of selling public land or denying people their to own their property, an RRU force will descent to his house four in the morning, and beat everyone including women and children before taking everyone to jail. They collectively punish everyone in order to intimidate everyone. Somali guerrilla movements opposed Siyaad Barre for crimes much smaller than this. THe RRU was created under Siilaanyo administration, and most of the members are from exclusive clans that abuse people. THis cowards will soon create a fertile environment for local people to defend themselves. This are worse than the so called " Koofiyad Cas" Somalia.
History repeats itself , but as long as the person doing the crime is from Hargeisa and not from Gaalkacayo, all is fine. That is the moral foundation of the Jeegaan and their apologists.
This is one of the main reasons the people of Awdal will never get capable people who would advocate for their issues.
I did talk to someone last week about the drought issues and encouraged him to speak up about the plight of the people. He said If I go the the microphone and blame the government for their lack of mitigating this consecutive droughts in the region, I am sure that someone, especially an elder will speak after me and say, " Waxaan dawlada ka raali gelinayaa hadalkii dhaliisha ahaa uu sidaayey Ina hebel".
This Ahmed Samaale gentleman, although not an elder, is probably the typical people I did mention. Rather than address the drought issue, he is barking to the wrong guy. "Waxa uu madaxweynaha ka raali gelinayaa hadalkii Ahmed Saciid Cige ". The people in the coast need help to establish fishing communities and other life sustaining things like water reservoirs and small scale ports for trade.
As you usual every development goes to the Jeegaan . Here , another fishing community in Berbera--where else. Zaylici, the fool that never learns anything , started again his usual job of being the scissorman (Maqasle) of cutting ribbons in Jeegaan land.
It is Lughaya that needs these things.