Ethiopia marching toward a failed state – US Intelligence

[oba hiloowlow]

Ethiopia will be among the top failed states, according to a report by the Director of National Intelligence, an umbrella organization of US intelligence agencies.

 

Entitled “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Trends”, Ethiopia is among the top 15 states expected to disintegrate and become ungovernable in the next fifteen years.

 

The separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia is said to have ushered in the era of disintegration of African states along tribal and ethnic lines. “The secessions of Eritrea from Ethiopia and South Sudan from Sudan are seen in retrospect as precursors of this era in which the boundaries across the Sahel are redrawn. States fragment along sectarian, tribal, and ethnic lines. “

 

Click on link below for the full report.

 

http://www.ethiopianreview.com/content/46131

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Could happen but the Ethiopians can prevent it to if they get rid of the TPLF regime.

[oba hiloowlow]

 

 

 

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[Xaaji Xunjuf]

I wouldn't celebrate to early Ethiopia might disintegrate in the future but they can also keep their unity we cant tell for sure. The united states are not good at predicting. But Ethiopia is a ticking time bomb ready to explode due to many factors. Ethnic tensions TPLF totalitarian control growing population religious tensions. The no peace no war situation with Eritrea and ofcourse poverty. If Amhaara take over they would transform Ethiopia better than the ruling Junta. The Amharas are ethnocentric folks and with their cultural imperialism in Ethiopia they define the Ethiopian National identity. The Ginbot if they take over they would reform the constitution remove ethnic federalism from the constitution. But there will never be a power vacuum in Ethiopia like in Somalia. They might be weakened politically and internally till the day of today 80% of the top generals of the army in Ethiopia are Amhaara The TPLF just replaced the top leadership to have firm control over the army. If the Amhaara remove the TPLF the oromos will follow their Amhaara masters. And the Amhaara will share power with the Oromo. But how it seems now the TPLF is still in full control lets see how it goes. After the TPLF gets rid of Wolayta boy Haile Mariam Deselegn. The Ethiopian Empire must be destablished but what will be the consequences. For us its good if Oromo becomes one country Amhaara becomes one country. Somali galbeed will be free. But the oromos are the one now that want to change Ethiopia and rule Ethiopia because of their demographic superior numbers over all the other ethnic groups lets see how it goes.

[xabad]

oba lots of countries were in that least bangladesh, kenya, nigeria, egypt and many others why cherry pick ethiopia. i don't get this hate somalis have for ethiopia. it's artificial and ill fitting.

[xiinfaniin]

No sane Somali wishes Ethiopia to disintegrate. If Ethiopia, a nation of 80 million, fails, it will cause a demographic tsunami. Somalia will be flooded by influx of fleeing refugees that are exponentially larger than the actual population in the country. Even strong Somalia cannot withstand with abrupt crumble of Ethiopia...

 

I pray for the opposite. Stable, democratic Ethiopia is what should Somalia wish for. And considering the fact that Ethiopia is experiencing a peaceful expansion of Muslims in an explosive rate, why would one wish for her downfall is beyond me.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

^^ What if it peacefully disintegrates several republics in the current Ethiopia, similar to what happened in Yugoslavia no need for refugees or constant wars.

[Raamsade]

oba hiloowlow;911972 wrote:

The separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia is said to have ushered in the era of disintegration of African states along tribal and ethnic lines. “The secessions of Eritrea from Ethiopia and South Sudan from Sudan are seen in retrospect as precursors of this era in which the boundaries across the Sahel are redrawn. States fragment along sectarian, tribal, and ethnic lines. “

I would take this report seriously if its core argument wasn't so risible. I mean what is the moder nation state if not political organization along tribal or ethnic lines? Just about every European nation state is premised on one tribe or ethnicity; some states are based on a single family. That doesn't to bode ill for Europe, why should it for Africa?

[Che -Guevara]

xabad;911994 wrote:

oba lots of countries were in that least bangladesh, kenya, nigeria, egypt and many others why cherry pick ethiopia. i don't get this hate somalis have for ethiopia. it's artificial and ill fitting.

Could it be disintegration in Egypt, Nigeria or Kenya will have little or no effect on Somalia, Ethiopia poses a problem.

 

Why so sensitive anyway?

 

Xiin...I don't think it will be as bad as you are painting it to be.

[The_Deeper]

If, God forbid, any thing like that happens, we Somalis will be minorities in our own country, if only 10 million Ethiopians flee to Somalia and easily settle between the two rivers, that is it. few years later its gonna be "habashstan" state.

[QansaxMeygaag]

Many "states" in Africa are artificial, but the worst are Ethiopia and Nigeria with ethnic and religious strife...these two countries are huge and can not be compared to pansies like Kenya or Togo or Benin - little inconsequential countries trying to punch above their weight in international/regional politics. Yugoslavia waiting to happen in my view, the seeds have been sown by the North/South divide in Nigeria (plus Biafra) and by Ethnic nationalism and brutal dictatorship combined in Ethiopia.

[somalee]

There's currently a power struggle between the Oromo, The Amhara and The Tigray. I don't think any of these ethnic communities may be harboring secessionist thoughts, and the reason is these people want to preside over a united Ethiopia. I don't think this report is entirely accurate but there are some elements of truth in it. The most likely region to breakaway is The Somali Regional State, Somalis are not involved in the inner power struggle, they do not identify with the other Ethiopians and they can breakaway through a referendum. Let's wait and see how the next general election goes.

[Taleexi]

I hope Ethiopia doesn't disintegrate because the ramifications of such phenomena may be unprecedented and have a far reaching consequence in the horn. Political justice is what Ethiopia needs.

[xabad]

Che -Guevara;912053 wrote:

Could it be disintegration in Egypt, Nigeria or Kenya will have little or no effect on Somalia, Ethiopia poses a problem.

 

Why so sensitive anyway?

 

.

Exactly and that is why we should not hope Ethiopia becomes a failed state. you're not exactly safe when your neighbor's house is on fire.

He seems to take joy in anarchy and the misfortune of others, a peculiarly Somali trait.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

The best thing for Somalis is a peaceful break up of Ethiopia. Thats the best thing we can hope for now. And i don't think Ethiopia will disintegrate any time soon but the next 10 or 20 years this might just happen. Its not even the religious problems but the huge population poverty ethnic tensions. By the year 2050 Ethiopia's Population will be a 150 million people.