Che -Guevara

Puntland Election: Gas Is Done For

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Folks, there could be huge surprises in this Puntland election.

Here is the latest from Garoowe.

1- Cali Ciise might be getting a lot of media attention, but Puntland insiders say that this guy is outsider. He never been to Puntland until now. People say that if he was a serious candidate he should  have visited the land and gage the political landscape.

Furthermore, he has zero support from Reer Bari who hate the freeloading Soolers who take most of the parliament seats and top cabinet jobs while not having one single region within  Puntland.

Also, some Puntlanders say that " Laguma aamini karo dalka". So, unless he gets votes from Faroole group and others he is in huge trouble. Yet, his election will put the Garaad on the front seat and decide the faith of the community once for all.

The biggest problem is that if the Garaad community is defeated they might relocate from Puntland for good and join Somaliland.

2-The Reer Bari have 21 members , more than anyone , yet they might not agree on anyone. Mr. Saciid Deni might get the majority of the Reer Bari, but the latest news is a business man called Cali Haji Warsame who hails from Mudug but resides in Bari is making some head waves. He is quite, and clean man who is not involved in any corruption. As we speak his graph is rising.

3- -C/weli Gaas is not out as stated by many.  Everyone I talked to says C/weli will be in the second round. The huge pool of candidates might fragment the challengers while the incumbent keeps his main base. For these reasons C/weli is not out yet. 

Last but not the least, Puntland might need to give the power to Reer Qandala who are disgruntled. Their dormant insurgency might reemerge and make huge problems for Cali Ciise or the outsiders. At the end the Puntlanders might decide to give the helms to the Qandala boys and Farah Shire  in order to avoid Somaliland style angry West Burco.



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This analyses looks as if it is coming from a source unfamiliar with the political landscape of the region.

My prediction: In lap one, Cali CIise is likely to glean 2/3rds of Sool, 1/3rd of Mudug, and 1/3rd of Bari to move onto the 2nd lapse, 31% of the votes. If it goes past the 2nd round, it' ll be "laba-Cali, wiil iyo abtigi".

Earlier today, I was listening to a local radio station phone-in poll from the public, and here was their finding:

1. Cali X Warsame 46.6%
2. Asad Cisman 17%
3. Cali Ciise 11%

Gaas 4.4%
Mudan 6.6%
Morgon 4.4

Juxa 2.2%
Deni 2.2%
Jabiye 2.2%

Others did not get a looking.

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I agree, yet he is not my numero uno, and most are decent folk barring Gaadaale. It is the intentions of some one must be wary of.

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First Round...

Waxa hogaaminaya waa Deni iyo Asad

Gaas waa hadhay.

Dr Cali Ciise hal cod ayu helay... 

Cali Xaaji Warsame zero cod. 

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On 1/5/2019 at 6:38 AM, maakhiri1 said:

Watch Diini, the new Speaker  I believe with his team.

Farmaajo consolidating power almost complete, once GAAS is defeated.


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