Mogadishu and the FGS Are Not in Danger – Disinformation by Al-Shabaab and SNM Will Fail

[Khadafi]

Mogadishu and the FGS Are Not in Danger – Disinformation by Al-Shabaab and SNM Will Fail

There is a growing tide of disinformation being spread by Al-Shabaab and extremist elements within the SNM. Contrary to their claims, Mogadishu and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) remain stable and resilient.

We Somalis have, unfortunately, become susceptible to emotionally charged and selectively presented news, particularly on social media. Since the fall of Kabul and the collapse in Syria, Al-Shabaab has adapted its strategy—relying more on psychological warfare and disinformation than military might. Viral videos falsely portraying Al-Shabaab forces entering Mogadishu have deceived many, including some supposed "experts" and social media influencers who lack critical judgment.

In parallel, SNM secessionists—after more than 30 years—are witnessing the unraveling of their fragile three-city tribal enclave known as "Somaliland" due to internal divisions and the resurgence of Khatumo. Even within Somaliland, a growing number of sober-minded individuals (not influenced by khat or tribalism) have begun to realize that the separatist dream is dead. These voices also oppose the bizarre and treacherous agreement to give Ethiopia access to Somali land in exchange for vague promises of recognition and shares in the failing Ethiopian Airlines.

The Somali identity in Somaliland is being systematically erased by extremist SNM ideologues. One infamous example is the spectacle of a Christian Oromo priest in Hargeisa trying to convince locals that they are ethnically Oromo and should await the so-called Oromo messiah, Abiy Ahmed. These bizarre displays shocked even young Somalilanders and exposed a deeper identity crisis, driven by years of tribal propaganda.

The Connection Between SNM Extremists and Al-Shabaab

The extremist wings of the SNM have done everything in their power to promote a narrative that the FGS is collapsing and that Al-Shabaab is winning. Influencers from Somaliland, pundits at think tanks like the ICG, and even ordinary Somalis lacking media literacy have bought into this false narrative. Although it is unlikely that SNM elders are directly collaborating with Al-Shabaab in the south, the long-standing hatred they harbor for other Somalis has created fertile ground for radicalization. Many prominent leaders of Al-Shabaab today originate from Somaliland—a reflection of the alienation and despair created by decades of tribalism and cuqdad.

Meanwhile, brilliant young Somalilanders are relocating to Mogadishu, where they experience life in a diverse, multi-tribal Somali capital—contrary to the isolationist rhetoric they've grown up with.

Refuting the Narrative of Collapse: Four Key Points

1. Al-Shabaab Was Defeated in Mogadishu
In 2011, Al-Shabaab suffered a major military defeat and withdrew from Mogadishu. The withdrawal was due to overwhelming military losses—not strategy. Since then, Somalia has gradually rebuilt its federal institutions and military capacity. Key leaders like Hassan Dahir Aweys are under house arrest, and others like Abu Mansur and Ahmed Madobe have defected. These defections are evidence of growing pressure on the group from within.

2. Political Stabilization and Federal Unity
Despite imperfections, the federal system in Somalia has provided a credible path forward. Democratic milestones—such as the peaceful transfer of power following President Farmaajo’s term—demonstrate that Somalia is maturing politically. Al-Shabaab is aware of this and tries to undermine progress through hotel bombings and fear tactics. However, these attacks have only solidified public support for traditional Sunni Islam (Ahlusunna Wal Jama’a, Ashari creed, Shafi'i fiqh) and rejected the radical ideologies imported during the 1990s.

3. Military Progress Is Somali-Led
Though early gains against Al-Shabaab were supported by AMISOM, today’s military operations are primarily Somali-led. Al-Shabaab’s recent victories are mostly symbolic—bribing officials or staging short-lived roadblocks for propaganda purposes. Claims that Somalia's government is a mere "bunker regime" no longer hold true.

4. Somalia Is Not Afghanistan or Syria
Unlike Afghanistan, where the Taliban are an indigenous Pashtun movement with religious and political goals, Al-Shabaab is a foreign-backed terror group aligned with Al-Qaeda and lacking any coherent political vision. Syria, on the other hand, was a failing state run by a sectarian minority; its collapse was inevitable without Russian intervention. Somalia, by contrast, is held together by consensus-based federalism and clan balance. It has already endured its collapse (with the fall of Barre) and is now in a phase of recovery.

Conclusion: Do Not Be Fooled

While corruption and nepotism remain serious challenges, Somalia is no longer in existential danger. The fight against Al-Shabaab is ongoing—but the tide has turned. Extremist propaganda emanating from dark, smoke-filled rooms in Hargeisa or social media accounts funded by SNM hardliners cannot reverse the facts on the ground.

Somalia is rising—and no amount of disinformation can stop that.