Mogadishu and the FGS Are Not in Danger – Disinformation by Al-Shabaab and SNM Will Fail There is a growing tide of disinformation being spread by Al-Shabaab and extremist elements within the SNM. Contrary to their claims, Mogadishu and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) remain stable and resilient. We Somalis have, unfortunately, become susceptible to emotionally charged and selectively presented news, particularly on social media. Since the fall of Kabul and the collapse in Syria, Al-Shabaab has adapted its strategy—relying more on psychological warfare and disinformation than military might. Viral videos falsely portraying Al-Shabaab forces entering Mogadishu have deceived many, including some supposed "experts" and social media influencers who lack critical judgment. In parallel, SNM secessionists—after more than 30 years—are witnessing the unraveling of their fragile three-city tribal enclave known as "Somaliland" due to internal divisions and the resurgence of Khatumo. Even within Somaliland, a growing number of sober-minded individuals (not influenced by khat or tribalism) have begun to realize that the separatist dream is dead. These voices also oppose the bizarre and treacherous agreement to give Ethiopia access to Somali land in exchange for vague promises of recognition and shares in the failing Ethiopian Airlines. The Somali identity in Somaliland is being systematically erased by extremist SNM ideologues. One infamous example is the spectacle of a Christian Oromo priest in Hargeisa trying to convince locals that they are ethnically Oromo and should await the so-called Oromo messiah, Abiy Ahmed. These bizarre displays shocked even young Somalilanders and exposed a deeper identity crisis, driven by years of tribal propaganda. The Connection Between SNM Extremists and Al-Shabaab The extremist wings of the SNM have done everything in their power to promote a narrative that the FGS is collapsing and that Al-Shabaab is winning. Influencers from Somaliland, pundits at think tanks like the ICG, and even ordinary Somalis lacking media literacy have bought into this false narrative. Although it is unlikely that SNM elders are directly collaborating with Al-Shabaab in the south, the long-standing hatred they harbor for other Somalis has created fertile ground for radicalization. Many prominent leaders of Al-Shabaab today originate from Somaliland—a reflection of the alienation and despair created by decades of tribalism and cuqdad. Meanwhile, brilliant young Somalilanders are relocating to Mogadishu, where they experience life in a diverse, multi-tribal Somali capital—contrary to the isolationist rhetoric they've grown up with. Refuting the Narrative of Collapse: Four Key Points 1. Al-Shabaab Was Defeated in Mogadishu In 2011, Al-Shabaab suffered a major military defeat and withdrew from Mogadishu. The withdrawal was due to overwhelming military losses—not strategy. Since then, Somalia has gradually rebuilt its federal institutions and military capacity. Key leaders like Hassan Dahir Aweys are under house arrest, and others like Abu Mansur and Ahmed Madobe have defected. These defections are evidence of growing pressure on the group from within. 2. Political Stabilization and Federal Unity Despite imperfections, the federal system in Somalia has provided a credible path forward. Democratic milestones—such as the peaceful transfer of power following President Farmaajo’s term—demonstrate that Somalia is maturing politically. Al-Shabaab is aware of this and tries to undermine progress through hotel bombings and fear tactics. However, these attacks have only solidified public support for traditional Sunni Islam (Ahlusunna Wal Jama’a, Ashari creed, Shafi'i fiqh) and rejected the radical ideologies imported during the 1990s. 3. Military Progress Is Somali-Led Though early gains against Al-Shabaab were supported by AMISOM, today’s military operations are primarily Somali-led. Al-Shabaab’s recent victories are mostly symbolic—bribing officials or staging short-lived roadblocks for propaganda purposes. Claims that Somalia's government is a mere "bunker regime" no longer hold true. 4. Somalia Is Not Afghanistan or Syria Unlike Afghanistan, where the Taliban are an indigenous Pashtun movement with religious and political goals, Al-Shabaab is a foreign-backed terror group aligned with Al-Qaeda and lacking any coherent political vision. Syria, on the other hand, was a failing state run by a sectarian minority; its collapse was inevitable without Russian intervention. Somalia, by contrast, is held together by consensus-based federalism and clan balance. It has already endured its collapse (with the fall of Barre) and is now in a phase of recovery. Conclusion: Do Not Be Fooled While corruption and nepotism remain serious challenges, Somalia is no longer in existential danger. The fight against Al-Shabaab is ongoing—but the tide has turned. Extremist propaganda emanating from dark, smoke-filled rooms in Hargeisa or social media accounts funded by SNM hardliners cannot reverse the facts on the ground. Somalia is rising—and no amount of disinformation can stop that.

Cubano, are you still looking for information? This guy has been on SomaliaOnline for over 20 years, asking the same questions. The Ogaden War was a diplomatic disaster for Somalia. The Barre regime should have waited until the fall of the Ethiopian imperial government and only invaded after securing full approval from the Soviets. But we Somalis have a tendency to act hastily. We launched the invasion despite knowing that the Derg, first under Amanuel Andom and later Mengistu Haile Mariam, was in the middle of a communist revolution. The Somali communist regime could have approached the situation more strategically. Instead of rushing into a direct war, they could have outflanked Mengistu by supporting the various rebel fronts in Eritrea, Tigray, and Oromia. Then, with clear and unequivocal Soviet backing, Somalia could have made its move. How could Somalia possibly invade a neighboring country that had stronger diplomatic support and had already become a key Soviet ally—while our own regime was also aligned with the Eastern Bloc? It was sheer madness.

yaab

It has been 30 years and no recognition is in the works. On the contrary, SSC and various non-triangle cities showed that not even "somaliland" agrees on separatism. Triangle cities politics are based on feelings. One day they sell the coast to the Emirates and the next day to Ethiopia. A funny Maahmaah is nin yaabin ayaa yaabay. Yahuu. We saw the bizarre thing when a fat short oromo man with a lot of jewels in his hand got the first podium in Somaliland. Nageey was the tone. Suddenly young Somali youth in Hargeysa and the triangle cities would learn that they were oromo and thus millions. Decisions are made through smoke-filled fadhi rooms where jaadka iyo marqaamka gives quick decisions. One wonders what Cigaal and Maykal Maryama would have said about the fat oromo man, YAAB!

Bizarre, one wonders if it is the psychological welcome that a president gives that makes him travel. Other presidents usually send delegations on small diplomatic matters. What is worrying, however, is the offensive that al-Shabaab is making. They are wearing down the government through propaganda. Just look at what happened in Balcad. 20 Shabaab appeared there in public for a few minutes and people started speculating whether Somalia would become Afghanistan 2.0

M ani aya waalan mise dunida ayaa waalatay. Why on earth should known ********, xaaran ku naaxle be allowed to be in golaha shacka, the national somali parliament. Alas, reer Galmudug waaye. That should explain it all..What does this send kind of behaviour send a signal to the young. Kill maim and be a ******** so that you can serve the public in the national parliament. Nimankaaan galgaduud ka imaaday maba naxayaan.. Bisnka. What a wretched backwarded mentality is this. Hadii ninkaani oo ka imaanlahay xamar ama marka cadeey wajigiisa ayuuba dadka ka qarinlahaay. Dadka aaba dhihilahaayen ar tuugas mininkeena ha keenin. But in this case the guy has cheer leaders, cursed people dancing and welcoming him. Yaab! =

Usefull idiots or should I say stooges from the native colonised population are very precuous to the whole colonial state of soomali-galbeed. According to the Franz Fanon Ibrahim theory on colonialism or should I say settler colonialism is that only brutal struggle or a show of power is all thar is needed to liberate a colonial state. Cabdi Iley, If I am not wrong was colonial master piece that Menelik dreamed of, an assimalated somali that speaks amharuc and that has accepted the colonial view of self hatred of oneself. The guy became viral for crying at Meles grave and claiming that he was not dead, as if god forbid the prophet had died. He was also the most brutal stooge that the xabashida could get their hands on. Never in the history of soomali-galbeed have they had a stooge that implemented and created blood thirsty somali militia killing other somalis. I would say what he did was unprecedented. His legacy continues with the intellectual Mustafa Cagjar embracing ethiopanism and giving a chilling speach Gondar , praising the Menelik. In summary, Abdi iley the stooge and a former electrician created the feeling of Somalis embracing the concept of -"ethiopian somali". From 1940 -2008 the avarage somali maxamed had the political incliination of how the hell they coud liberate soomali-galbeed. I have been told that in the 1959 when Haile Selassie needed judges in Soomali-galbeed th qadis would rather flee to Somalia then become a stooge under Xayle Selassie. Even the thought being a judgewas bizarre in the somali psyche in those days. Even the ethiopians did not accept Somalis as fellow ethiopians and not a single somali was never made a miniser despite being the third largest ethnic group in Ethiopia. Maakhir , I was also suprised why he was released and the reason is that he was indeed the best stoorge. Now that Abey Ahmeds boat is sinking in a existential war with Amharas Abey Ahmed needed a stooge who cemented the somali psyche with "the amaharas are gone, the TPLF cea6ed federalism. As if xahashoda in ey kala fiicanyihiiin. Abey ahned needed a monster stooge against the Amhara,hence fort he cane out,

Could not agree more with you all. Ismaacil Cumar gheele did what he could when received intelligence about what the xabashida were planning and called these leaders. Hassan socdaal should have been more firm and more bold in regards to the issue. We have a saying, if someone unlawfully obtains your house and you stay silent about it why should you be suprised if the bandit comes after your other houses. With all due respect, as MMA indicated, Hassan socdaal was the first somali president to visit "soomaligalbeed" and dance with the bloodthirsty tigree stooge Iley. This was the first indication for the ethiopians set their eyes upon the somali coast. Symbolism is important. Arafaat, well said bro. The word "ictiraaf" dadka ayuu sixray, yaab, The Mou isnt even legally binding and said in clouded words "recognition" in its "due course". Giving up your land for a bizarre worded Mou and then flooding the media with words "Ictiraaf" in order appease the gullable masses. Allow soomali alle ha hu gargaaro. War dadkaa maxaaa ku dhacay? Yaakhay dadka manakoobiyo maa le geeya? Whats more sad is that how Muuse used this bizarre wording to make the whole thing as the "wicked soomalis in the south against the somalis from hargeysaa". Does not he even see that his own backyard gave up that game with SSC and the saylac folks`and even some moderate elements within the SNM?. Xamaasad and emotionally driven politic based upon nacayb only leads "fitna" The books of history will judge the guy. Poor saylac folks for being a second abkhazia or south ossestia soon. The dust will settle down, the oromo preacher will find his own impending collapse. Balaayo ku aragtee dheh, mar in uu la dagaalaamo tigreerga, marna oromodiisa, marna amxaarada. His divertion tactics and defauting the nation and then starting issues with somalis will fail. I will say it again, The west is tired and no longer see mini-cat to keep peace. It has its own issue. They too see a fragile yoguslavian nation on the brinks of collapse. Mark my words in this forum. Its 2024. Lets forget about "ethiopia" as we did in the 70-ties. Its a house built upon cards. Mengistu, the woleyta communist semi- destroyed the first pillar by destroying the whole concept of what it means to be ethiopian by erasing that amhara church grip. Mengistu who hailed from slave origins knew the tinder box and as true communist never adressed the rights of ethnicities. The second blow to the pillar was the eritreans who defeated the amhara led army. The third pillar was indeed the Somali nation that gave identity the oromos. 4th and final pillar that nailed the coffin was the tigrayans who out of ethnic chauvinism preferred to use ethnic federalism despite Meles fully knowing that Yoguslavia awaited nation. All pillars are down now, By 2026 the second phase will happen. Hopefully dadkeena way fahmaayaan in guri xaaran iyo xoog Meneliq ku dhisay barako laga heleynin. YAAB!

It is easy to make analyzes based on emotions. What made Ethiopia's Abey Ahmed make this erratic political move? We Somalis have an inferiority complex and think we are seeing the Ethiopia of that time. The truth is that Ethiopia underwent a failed coup a month ago. Abey Ahmed's has completely lost his grip. This political move by him is a move by him out of weakness to appease the Amhara people. Many forget that Abey Ahmed does not even control the Amhara region. No control over Gondar, Tigray and even in the south the Jimma of the Oromo people. Chaos reigns in Ethiopia. To be honest, I think that we Somalis have simply suffered from traces of the deep internal ethnic crisis in Ethiopia which is currently undergoing a defacto Yugoslavia balkanization. Abey knows that "recognizing other countries" outside Africa's colonial borders is a form of irrendtism and illegal. If you read the agreement, you see the word choice recognition in "due course" What is sad is that we Somalis have now been directly affected by Ethiopia's collapse. Will he succeed? He will not succeed. The ethnic antagonisms continue. Even if Abey Ahmed sings and dances to extremist ethno-nationalist fetish about "Borders of the Kingdom of Aksum from Assab to Saylac" i.e. what Meneleik and Xayle Sailasse used to say, it won't help him. It is important that Somalis realize this. What is tragic about this is a somali president went down to the soomali ballade 10 years ago and danced the dhaanto. The first president in the history of Somalia who went voluntarily to a disputed Somali area which in our constitution was "disputed" His laughter and dance and visit were applauded by many but behind the scenes what many thought, this is not a form of legitimization of this. The same Somali president now condemns Abey Ahmed, Neftgna Ahmed, Amxaaro Cabey for his erratic political moves. We all know the demographics of Somaliland . An area that has been relatively stable since 1991. One hundred thousand Oromo is enough for the whole country to become a subsidized bizarre country that will lack the power to choose its destiny. For the low conscious who scream in their intoxication under the influence of qayillaada "ICTIRAAF" forget about "countries" like Transistria, Abkhazia, countries recognized by Russia and only Russia. These areas have one thing in common. They have Russian military bases and a large influx of Russians. Ictiraafka xabashida waa deedi. Ilaahy Soomal ha ilaaharo. AUN all Somali martyrs. Cigal must now be rolling in his grave along with all those who fought for liberation from the British and Italians. Who knew that Somalis themselves would actually accept an Ethiopian military base targeting the sea.? What do you think? YAAB!

What is truly more sinister and more dangerous is how and why Ethiopia and its current regime under neftegna Abey offered the extremists a recognition. On the contray of what many belive. Abey Ahmed and his centralisation of power and his quest to eradicate the balcanisation of Ethiopia, his dislike of ethnic based federalism is what the former elite, the amhara wanted. They finally achieved in getting a foot on sacred somali coastline. The same somali coast line that Haile Selassie was claiming in the laste 50-ties. This move by him is to prolong the blood-shed by somali tribes in the north. Yaab that people can not see this. Itoobiya ku aqoonsatay maaa noqotay in wax lagu barakaysto.?

وَٱلْعَصْرِ ١ إِنَّ ٱلْإِنسَـٰنَ لَفِى خُسْرٍ ٢ إِلَّا ٱلَّذِينَ ءَامَنُوا۟ وَعَمِلُوا۟ ٱلصَّـٰلِحَـٰتِ وَتَوَاصَوْا۟ بِٱلْحَقِّ وَتَوَاصَوْا۟ بِٱلصَّبْرِ ٣ In Jowharatal Nufus someone asked Shaykh Uweys Dheere al baraawi qadasallahi sirrahu when woke one day his xerta at the sunset and said have you seen what I have seen? They said no, he said, a day passed and a new day have begun, some us have lost and some of us has won. He then recited this surah above that the students knew by heart since children to give them a deeper insight that your not safe untill your last breath. Ayaan Xirsi Alle ha soo hanuuniyo, Indeed we are the poor and God is the sublime.

Somali politics is all about emtions to ensure that those who are in power stay in power!. Arafat, I assure that Muuse and his cohorts will do what ever they can do to spread the message to defeat. Not that they like it, but it cements Muuses concept of unity. Sadly It seems, the more hatred the more legitamacy for him and less scrutiny and reckoning by the youth in Hargeysaa why are they being sent to deserts to fight other somalis. We are the sane voices who should talk about the worst famine that nomads in Somaliland are enduring? The economic problems, inflation? The monoply of the economy?. Anyways, be it north or the south, its all about emotions!

AUN He was truly a patriot and a good musician!.

Alle ha ku soo hanuuniyo walaal. Ogow diinta islaamka ey badbaadinta ruuxaagi ey tahay. The one who is evil can not be compared to the one who is good. Faith in God is good but Allah has sent prophets and the final prophet the mercy of all prophets, Sayyadina Muxammadil-Mustafa NNKH. I can see now where the morals come from. Have nothing more really to reply to you. You have much further problems then some petty somali tribal political issues.

Tubto min kulli dhanbil astaaghfurlillah. Sooma ogid in mayda dhintay lama caayo. Game changer, our faith does not allow talk ill about the dead. Tolkaagi maalinta bacthiga ma kula joogan ee taqwada Alle ama adaabta islaamka aan ilaalino.