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Baashi

What now? - the E-factor

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Baashi   

The E-factor - as it happens news analysis.

By Inna-Kaadi-Najaasle

Waxa-la-Yiri editorial piece.

Monday, June, 5th, 2006

 

The troubled city of Mogadishu has now new keepers. Islamic courts have won the battle. If the news dispatches from ground zero are something to go by, it appears that the warlords have fled from their area of control and are now regrouping in the regional capital of Jowhar. With the exception of Al Hajj Mussa Yalaxow and Cabdi Qaybdiid, the warlords have lost basis, warehouses full of donated military logistics, airport, important make-shift seaport, and clan support. All of them lost their phantom titles in the TFG ranks.

 

However, they still do have one very important card. They have the Ethiopian support. As an important regional power with existential interests in the future of Somali state, Ethiopia has proven time and again its unprecedented intrigue and calculation to control the country’s political players by easily changing variables in the Somali political equation so much so that all the known warlords (except Barre Hiiraale and the JVA allaince) operating in Southern theatre today owe their eminence to Addis Ababa’s backing.

 

Moreover the defeated warlords have Jowhar and its wobbly prince at their side. With Ethiopian support and with Jowhar base, they are not totally finished. Not yet! They have few swings left in them. There is also a big room for clan manipulation and the possibility of rallying troops in the name of my clan against theirs. With western money and Ethiopian armament combined with organized and well equipped Jowhar militia under Dheere, there is a chance that they may be back with vengeance.

 

Equally important is the division within Maxkamadaha. They are subject to clan manipulation. If leaders don’t solidify their base and find unity under the banner of one strong leader, Mogadishu will remain as anarchic as it had been under the competing warlords. The existence of more than twelve different factions within courts makes them prone to sinister influences.

 

The irony of all of this is with the new balance of power shifting to courts’ hands, TFG is not in a better position than it was when its warlord enemies had sway in the capital. Courts and the TFG strongman just don’t see eye to eye. If the past verbal exchange between TFG and Courts is something to go by, they are and indeed remain sworn enemies. On the other hand, TFG needs recognition and support from US to consolidate power and bring the south under its control. It has appealed to US administration after US’s support to the warlords in Mogadishu became public knowledge.

 

TFG position was that US administration position to support the warlords is weakening the new government. TFG went as far as invoking UN’s embargo to put the heat on US administration. However, TFG leaders made crystal clear that if money and logistical armaments are channeled through them, they will deal with the courts themselves.

 

Although all the above mentioned factors contribute greatly to the Mogadishu’s instability, no power has more influence in Somali politicking than Ethiopians. The defeat warlords of Mogadishu suffered at the hands of the courts amounts nothing as long as Ethiopia is willing to give them more fire power, important diplomatic connections, regional representation, and what have you.

 

Ethiopian meddling in our politics is a major contributing factor to Somalia’s civil war. Warlords that have been defeated in battles in the past came back with more fire power and stashs of green and reignited the “uncivil†war that’s been raging in the South.

 

E-factor is real. Mogadishu warlords will disappear if Addis Ababa stops giving these criminals the support they need this time around. However if Zenawi decides to remake them and restore their position in the capital they will remain a force to reckon with and by extension the good people of Mogadishu will pay the price in blood. It is that simple.

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I think Ethoipian troops have to literally march to Mogadisho for warlords to ever come back there.

 

In my view only two things will undo the success of the courts. The first being the obvious division within the courts, they must aviod the pitfalls faced by USC in 1991. Unified leadership with vision for all Somalia is needed here to aviod a repeat of 1991.

 

The success in Xamar may tempt the courts to subjugate all Somalia by force. This might lead to more militaristic endeavors by courts. Hopefully, the leadership would be wise to know it is better to engage rest of Somalia peacefully rather than militarily.

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Inna Kaadi Najaasle has some good points there, Baashow. :D

 

But he gave the toothless TFG more than it could chew on his take on things. The current conflict which is raging in Banadir region has exposed the irrelavance of the TFG - not just to Somalis but also at the world stage (mind you, islamists taking over a capital is a big news headline).

 

The thing is, if Ethiopia or the US were to use anyone to do the dirty work, it will be Mogadishu's defeated warlords. They are in a better position (on clan grounds) than anyone else to take on the Courts. And since they are no longer part of the TFG, they are particularly attractive to get outside support (ie Ethio or US).

 

Ethiopia, having playing the cards for the past decade or so, will not sit idle and watch its eggs being distroyed like that. I think it will, one way or the other, flex its muscles. If and when that happens, I think Geedi's haste decision to sacking of the Mogadishu warlords is something thats gonna haunt him for the months to come.

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Oodweyne   

Hello Folks,

 

I think there is a few corrections that are needed in here; but other than that, I do happen to agree with the larger sentiments of Mr. Suldaanka.

 

And They Are As Follows:

 

Firstly, this latest brutal warfare have finally ended whatever conceit that Col.Yey's TFG ever had; and that means even if Ethiopia decides to be a factor in southern Somalia, as they always have been, and therefore see to it to openly support the defeated Warlords, it seems to me that no ammunitions and other military support will be wasted on Col. Yey; given that he is essentially naked and without a hardy muscle to his name, to which to bring to the politicall bargaining table, as a token of his worth to the destiny of Somalia; particularly, where such political muscle matters the most, namely in the city of Mogadishu and it’s environments.

 

Secondly, when the dust settles in due course, it will be apparent that the Islamic Courts have won decisively; and furthermore, they are, on the whole under the influence of the Mr. CabdiQasim Salad Boy's close political confidantes, such as Col. Aweys; and in northern Mogadishu, they are under the influence of Mr. Abuubakar Cadani; to the extent that he(i.e., Mr. C/Qasim Salad Boy) will come out of the shadows as the ultimate puppeteers of the Islamic Courts(at least in so far as the majority or the most powerful ones of the islamic courts are concern) and declare that henceforth, the destiny of southern Somalia will be a matter that "they" and they alone will decide(read that in clannish sense, or through clannish binoculars).

 

Of course, they will see to it not fall into that trap of division of the old USC, such as the case was with Mr. Ali Mahdi and Gen. Aideed in early 1990s; and hence the reason you have the current Sheekh Shariif as the spokesperson of the Islamic Courts; given that he is, in a sub-clannish sense, the folks who used to congregate under Mr. Ali Mahdi faction of that side of the old defunct USC(namely the USC/SSA).

 

Thirdly, it's more than probable that in Baidabo, will be made very nervous in the short term; given that Col. Yey is essentially a hostage there(even if you consider with all clannish militias he has there!!); to the point that what will became reality in the ground in that city, will be anything that is agreed on one hand between the RRA under the tutelage of Col. Xaabsade and the emerging forces of Mogadishu on the other hand(i.e., the Islamic Courts); and even furthermore, in so far as city of Kismayo is concern; itself is in league, not militarily, but in understanding sense, with the Islamic courts through the connection of Col. Hiiraale's JVA.

 

So, therefore the only regions that are outside the sphere of influence of the Islamic Courts, are the Jowhar and Hiiraan regions respectively, and of course in Puntland fiefdom; which means, the strategy of winning friends and alliances across tribal and clannish barrier in southern Somalia, is baring fruit for the forces of late TNG under the auspices of Mr. CabdiQasim Salad Boy.

 

And finally, if Ethiopia does not interfered with this process, which is at the moment 50-50(for they are waiting at the moment, a direction and most importantly a political cover from Uncle Sam, before they declare their hands openly and militarily for the support of the defeated Warlords) I believe that before the Summer is out, that much of the South of Somalia including the Jowhar region and hiiraan region will be effectively under Islamic courts and it's various islamically-orientated alliances, that are drawn from each region in the clannish sense.

 

Regards,

Oodweyne.

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Baashi   

Friends,

 

The fact that TFG is irrelevant as far as Mogadishu’s power struggle is concerned is not point of contention. Any objective observer with ounce of dignity can attest to that fact. Control of Mogadishu my friend is “the†key prerequisite to have for any legitimate future government to succeed. The TFG top brass in Beydhabo know quite well the importance as well as political weight the capital city has in Somalia’s political equation.

 

Furthermore, it has been the policy of the powers that matter for quite sometimes now to link Mogadishu’s control to any formal recognition afforded to any government in Somalia. We are on the same page on this score.

 

I can understand that y’all itching to lambaste the strongman in Beydhabo :D . But beyond that the truth is the E-factor is the devil that’s been pouring gasoline in this bonfire. If there is any doubt no matter how minuscule on the E-factor and its determinant role in Somalia’s prolonged civil war that doubt will be put to rest by the events that are about to unfold in northern Mogadishu.

 

The conflict will take one of two paths in my opinion. Either Ethiopia will continue empowering its friends with the latest armaments, military logistics, food supplies, trucks, gasoline, and money until it succeed installing a puppet government under its thump. Or it will start cherry picking and look for a brand new warlord inside the city limits. Either way this key city will remain anarchic and by extension the possibility of national government with enough teeth to control the country will remain unattainable dream.

 

The only probable move that can put an end to this perpetual conflict of ours is to have the TFG mend fences with the top brass that lead the various court alliances. If that were to happen I think the civil war in the southern theatre would end overnight. For starters, the courts now control all the key roads, ports, cities, and farms in the South.

 

I don’t think they can remain a unified force for too long. The temptation of power, greed, and clannish appeal is far too great for some of its core fighters to resist. I pray and hope that they realize the opportunity this day has brought and seize it before it’s too late.

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Paragon   

A very crucial moment. The courts' next move will either make or break them. I hope they make the right decision. Although the TFG is a weakling today, the courts may want to work with the TFG as leaving the TFG idle will only lead to it being used by another enemy (Ethiopia or re-grouped warlords). There is little wonder that some of the defeated warlord militias are joining the ranks of the TFG.

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Abdiqaybdeed has given in to his clans court. Good news it seems there is a pattern in which the warlords are realising at last that they have no support and thus must cut and run.

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Gabbal   

Baashi, bal labadaan ku dheg!

 

1. All the key sea and airports in southern Somalia are held by anti-Ethiopian forces.

 

2. The victory of the Islamic Courts is also a consolidation of Arab influence in Somalia and petro-dollars and armaments are likely to follow, if they have not already been part of the equation.

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RedSea   

Originally posted by Baashi:

 

I don’t think they can remain a unified force for too long. The temptation of power, greed, and clannish appeal is far too great for some of its core fighters to resist. I pray and hope that they realize the opportunity this day has brought and seize it before it’s too late. [/QB]

Baashow saaxib, that is your opinion and I have to respect it, however, greed and struggle for power between the courts themselves is not going to take place as it appears at the moment. Their leadership and their unification is far too strong to fall for anything. The possibility that clan might overtake the loyalty of the different memebers to the courts has already been tested during the recent battles in which both sides consisted of men from the same sub clan; they have proven it to be rock solid when it comes to to that and not vonurable to clan appeal.

 

Moreover, I agree with you and I too also hope that they succeed and I am sure they won't repeat the same mistakes as they did in early 1990s when they had similar oppurtunity. In those times, they had put minor things such as smoking as priority crimes punishable to being put into container in hot day near the beach. This time I hope they start with bigger issues such security and political issues facing the areas under their control.

 

Allah knows best.

 

Assalamu Calaykum.

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Baashi   

The day after...

Waxa-la-Yiri follow up report.

By Xog-Haye

 

The AU has submitted informal request to the US administration. According to news wires, AU is asking US to throw its support behind the fledgling transitional government in Beydhabo. AU warns that Mogadishu fate is akin to that of Afghanistan right after Soviet troops conceded defeat and pulled their troops out of the country.

 

The whereabouts of the defeated warlords are not known. There are conflicting reports reaching to Mr. Xog-haye’s Mundul in no-man’s land. The most credible tidbit is coming from dukaan in Jowhar. Sources close to Mohamed Dheere’s villa have told the owner of this dukaan that some of the warlords have been flown to Djibouti where US military fleet are stationed.

 

There are other dispatches from the troubled capital reporting that the defeated warlords are enroute to Addis Ababa after briefing to US intelligent unit aboard US warships in Djibouti. Waxa-la-Yiri team are also getting different feeds from Beydhabo and the report on the warlord’s whereabouts is that they are still in Jowhar waiting an airplane for a trip to Addis Ababa.

 

Mogadishu is calm 2day after courts declared a major victory over the evil and much hated warlords of Mogadishu. The courts have not communicated to anyone as to how they are planning to spend their new political capital. It is not very clear how the factions within the courts will divide power or whether they will form a unitary court system that will bring normalcy to the capital. Negotiations of how to best form a Benadir administration have proven very tricky in the past. The expectation is that with the absence of feuding warlords the formation of Benadir administration will succeed.

 

But one thing is clear. No one is shedding tears for the warlords’ departure. Waxa-la-Yiri team found very difficult to filter out all the snippet and tidbit info coming out from a gamut of sources. Biibito, Marfishs, Internet Xaafado sites, and virtual fadhi-ku-diri which form the core business of our Waxa-la-Yiri news organization are in state of excitement never seen before. Bear with us fellaz we are sure trying to bring clarity to these events as they happen on ground zero. With clarity we hope you will be able to digest the raw info coming out from hometown.

 

Because of sheer volume of feeds we've been recieving from our sources, Waxa-la-Yiri has some difficult in analyzing the gathering of court leaders, former political figures, and Al Hajj Mussa Yalaxow. Supposedly the meeting is designed to disarm the remnants of the warlords. What is not so clear is the terms and conditions of this truce between the two sides.

 

Equally confusing to Waxa-la-Yiri news gatherers is the absence of other major figures of the courts as well as inclusion of politicians with no relations to the courts in this fence mending exercise.

 

All in all the ball is rolling and by and large the resident of Mogadishu appear to let out a sigh of relief aaaaah. The silent chant: waa maalin weynoo Muslimiinta oo idil ay wada maqsuudeen is in the air.

 

Stay tune and don’t go away. The ball has just started rolling. War san iyo weedh san ii soo wacee,Warsan iyo weedhsan ii soo wacee!

 

SOL Waxa-la-Yiri News Desk.

Run sheeg, waa ceeb sheeg.

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Oodweyne   

Dear Mr. Baashi,

 

You said this, and I am quoting it in here for the benefit of our discussion:

 

Originally Posted By
Mr. Baashi
:

 

The
AU
has submitted informal request to the
US
administration. According to news wires, AU is asking
US
to throw its support behind the fledgling transitional government in
Beydhabo
.

 

AU
warns that
Mogadishu
fate is akin to that of
Afghanistan
right after
Soviet
troops conceded defeat and pulled their troops out of the country.

Subsequently one can say, that although it would be the interests of the African Union(AU) to stabilised the situation in Somalia, through some form of effective government that can take charge of the whole situation of southern Somalia; and even better, to have some sort of jurisdictionally-competent State organs, that can account to interesting outsiders, particularly towards the goings-and-comings of Somalia; but be that as it may, one knows deeply the reason that Uncle Sam deliberately side-lined Col. Yey’s TFG, and it has to do with that notion of Tribally-configured Power-Equation in Southern Somalia, in which his government is powerless to effect it, one way or the other.

 

Now, you know this for a fact, and furthermore, I know this much to be true about Somalia’s ever-shifting alliance-forming tribally-determined power-equation; and therefore, We can collectively say that those are the facts that singularly determines the concrete reality in Southern Somalia; and furthermore, when it comes to Southern Somalia, the game or the pursuit of power has not change in the direction of it's orientation ever since Mr. CabdiQasim Salad Boy’s TNG became, through it’s various proxy control of areas to south of Mogadishu, and through it’s coalitions of opportunistic alliance of convenience, at the port city of kismayo(i.e., the Col. Hiiraale's JVA) the force to be reckon with.

 

Secondly, although it’s a undeniable fact that Uncle Sam has always professed a readiness to work with Col. Yey’s TFG, and furthermore that has always always been the case; but what never seemed to have materialised, with all the heavy prodding of Mr. Meles Zenawi’s as a support for such action towards Uncle Sam, in which we have seen in recent years, is the material demonstration of such hoped-for and sought after governmental support from the US towards that of Col. Yey’s TFG.

 

And, of course, one can blind oneself if one choose to do so; but the painful reality is that from the get-go, the US government knew perfectly well that any government headed by a person, even a murderous warlord such Col. Cabdilahi A. Yusuf(i.e., Col. Yey) is unlikely to effect materially the political equation of Southern Somalia; given that in that part of the neck-of-the-wood of the Somalia’s territories of the horn-of-Africa is essentially in a Post-Statehood terrain; in the sense that a cobbled together governmental organs that would be in-charge of that legally-defined jurisdiction headed by a person, or persons, that do not have a material support in the ground is unlikely to be effective organs of such State.

 

And furthermore, in Somalia the issue is not or was never about the notion of creating a government that is acceptable to all, but it’s essentially an attempt of Re-creating the legal acceptance of Statehood(both morally, legally, and furthermore, socially) in a Jurisdictional sense; and hence, if the head of the new State-cum-Government is not to the satisfaction of the forces on the ground it would appear easily that no amount of fictitious proclamation of the existence of a government can amount to anything other than the passing delusion of certain people in any given time.

 

Thirdly, if you pay little bit more attention as to why that the US had turn it’s back onto Col. Yey’s TFG even from the get-go, in back in that heady days of October of 2004(which was the day he had assumed this fictitious post of a Presidency of that non-existant State called Somalia) you would immediately realised that it has to do with the sheer understanding that the US's government had gleaned from the Somalia’s tribally-determined political equation, which plainly have explained to Uncle Sam as to what is acceptable to the forces on the ground in Southern Somalia when it comes to the restoration of a jurisdictionally-competent organs of Statehood, particularly back in Southern Somalia.

 

What that means, in plain English, is that for the first time in Somalia’s history the notion of Somalia’s power-equation, in a clannish sense, has been mastered, not only by us Somalis, but by every one else; to the extent that it’s more than possible to find a mid-level civil-servant or junior diplomat in any western chancelleries which can give you, by-chapter-and-by-verse, the intricate and never-ending dance of Somalia’s tribally-determined political-power-equation; which in turn, will explained as to what is happening in any given day in any corner of the Somalia’s territories in the horn-of-Africa.

 

Fourthly, it’s my considered opinion, that sheer inside knowledge about Somalis larger reality, which details for all to see, as to how effective in the ground in the Southern Somalia that a government headed by Col. Yey will be, is the genesis or the root cause that essentially made US’s government to give the short end of the stick and the drift of the cold shoulder to that never-ceasing supplication of Col. Yey’s TFG for the support of Uncle Sam’s government.

 

Now, even furthermore, one can sat, that the reason that US have decided to by-passed the conceit of the TFG as a supposed government, when it comes to dealing directly to those, that US considered to be in position to effect reality in Southern Somalia, namely the recently defeated Warlords has also have that basic proposition of power-equation and who wield it, at it’s root.

 

Of course, it has been the agenda of the African Union(AU) to ask the international community, particularly the powers-that-be, and more specifically from US’s government to support the Col. Yey’s TFG, lest the whole creaking edifice that is the TFG collapsed onto itself; but as we all know there has been no effective answer to that dilemma from the members of this self-regarding club, that goes under the name of powers-that-be who has the ability to answer the thousand prayers of Col. Yey’s shameless cheerleaders around the world; due to the simple fact that they(i.e., as a Nation(s) that have consequential powers to effect reality in every corner of the globe) have collective came to conclusions that he(i.e., Col. Yey) is worth more trouble than he is worthy of, particularly in comparison to their considered support of legitimacy that they can offered to him; and more specifically as to what that legitimacy that they can give to him, may purchase for him within the contours of Southern Somalia’s power-equation.

 

Lastly, but not least, it’s my contention, that Uncle Sam’s government will do Three Things at the same time; which are:

 

(1) Firstly, they will put their Anti-Terrorism joint task-force in the horn-of-Africa particularly in Djibouti in a high-alert mode, at least for the short term; they will also put heavy effort of increasing the flow of information from their intelligence-gathering post through Uncle Sam various spies in the horn-of-Africa(i.e., the so-called Human Intelligence, or in short the HUMINT) just to be one step ahead of whatever the Islamist movements are cooking in Mogadishu.

 

(2) Secondly, they will put their naval patrol in the Red-Sea areas of operation and in the Indian Ocean in particular into high gear in-order to check what is coming in and out to the ports of Southern Somalia such as Barava, Marka, and lastly in Kismayo, which are all under the political influence of the Islamist Forces or their coalitions of convenience.

 

(3) Thirdly, they will trained(or more appropriately re-focused) some extra numbers of their Spy satellites(in-order to gather what is known as the Signal intelligence or in short the SIGINT) towards the horn-of-Africa as whole, and in Southern Somalia in particularly; just so that they will have more â€Eyes†from the sky beaming down onto the activities of the people who are running around the ground in Southern Somalia(particularly, whether there is a large movement of forces or formation of forces, in any spot in the ground in Southern Somalia, which can indicate a heavy activities of certain forces).

 

Apart from those technical objective, which are immediate and only relevant to the concern theatre in Southern Somalia; I believe that in so far as the political and diplomatic sphere is concern that the US’s government will watch-and-see; and furthermore, will not do anything that is drastic at least for the short term; and more precisely, I do not believe that it will used any of it’s enormous political capital in supporting the discrediting conceit of Col. Yey’s TFG at least in this late hour in the game of Southern Somalia's power-equation and it's never-ending tug-of-war.

 

Particularly given that from their point-of-view this government(i.e., the Col. Yey’s TFG) was dead from the get-go, and it will make no tangible difference or materially to the facts on the ground whether anyone helps them or not from this point onward.

 

And finally, what that means is that US’s government will play by the ear in the mean-time(or more appropriate it will use effectively it's multitude of innate and an unsurpassed ability to be on it's best guard, in so far as Somalia's theatre of operation is concern), without getting it's hand directly involve in this unfolding fiasco.

 

And by that we mean that any new measures of political and military kind that may emerged from Uncle Sam’s government will largely be defensive in tone and limited in implementation wise; and furthermore it will have no support bearing which are particularly of the kind that can be best describe as a good and glad tidings sort, in so far as the shameless conceit and the ever-pitiful delusion of Col. Yey’s TFG is concern.

 

Regards,

Oodweyne.

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Originally posted by Baashi:

The E-factor - as it happens news analysis.

By Inna-Kaadi-Najaasle

Waxa-la-Yiri
editorial piece.

Monday, June, 5th, 2006

 

 

.....Although all the above mentioned factors contribute greatly to the Mogadishu’s instability, no power has more influence in Somali politicking than Ethiopians. .

And that is what you think, Caaqilka Seattle! Are all these great unprecedented events accuring in Muqdisho beyond the stinking ethiopian radar screen, or the great Satan, i.e. the wicked American foriegn policy? Your error factor is proving very unreal now than ever, my sensationalist fellow.

 

Maxkamadaha... They are subject to clan manipulation.

but tell us what happen before the eyes of all those tribes who couldn't unleash any working manipulations to untangle the unity of Maxkamadaha. I think you erred to understand that manipulation is more true at the unwavering alliance of the warlords in which the Islamic courts had used for their advantages this time, by grassroot engagements with the folks in each of those tribes that surely contributed to the undeniable fact of which they are homeless now.

 

Warlords that have been defeated in battles in the past came back with more fire power and stashs of green...

Again, your mindset and experience of the past are misleading you now. The past wars between somali tribes were unprincipled and indeed very different to the fabric of this one. I hate to clarify things to our only intellectual in SOL, but Adeer this one involves with people who believe Islam and others who oppose it, not in practice, but even in theory. I personally met here a man whose cousin was killed in the fight against the Islamic courts who has firmly confessed to me that the death of his cousin was a rejoice to him and a victory for the Ummah. Has that ever happen in Somalia, Doctor Baashi? You wonder who killed him in the fight. It was his next of kin people along with the Islamic forces that he faced in the front lines; an indication of a serious matter we had never seen in the past.

 

However if Zenawi decides to remake them and restore their position in the capital they will remain a force to reckon with and by extension the good people of Mogadishu will pay the price in blood.

Zenawi did what he could and Caaqil Baashi, it's upto you to come to terms to the realities that our enemy have no options on the table except to engage us in face-to-face wars with us, including their western friends. I am sure they know the downside for embarking to that war, because it surely will solidify our unity and could lead to more victories, including the emergence of Islamic forces within Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Uganda, and Sudan and all of the regions of East Africa. We have nothing to lose, adeer. If our 'good people of Mogadishu' as you put it choose to die in a honorable cause, then what is the fuzz you making saaxiib?

 

Now, bring on the Ethiopians you fear most, and we will see what they get from us!

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me   

Futuh Al-Habasa all over again. E-factor has lost the initiative. The tribal alliances have been dying for a while now and the Somali people have been waiting for a unifying ideology wether islamism or nationalism. Lets hope the courts play this game wisely. The courts have the initiative and the enemies of Somalia are in 'check'. In the future keep your eyes open for other popular oprisingins the rest of the country. especially in the North-East and the North-West.

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-Lily-   

^^^ The E facor is never dead, even if against all the odds, some sort of agreement is made that results in a shabby government in the South, they wil still use Somaliland is a platform to always meddle with the affairs of Somalis.

 

Alle Ubahane, I don't think Ethiopian influence is a matter of fear, more like mosqitos on a hot night that you cannot get rid of, whatever you try.

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Originally posted by Baashi:

I don’t think they can remain a unified force for too long. The temptation of power, greed, and clannish appeal is far too great for some of its core fighters to resist. I pray and hope that they realize the opportunity this day has brought and seize it before it’s too late.

That is what I fear most, so far they (uic) are playing well their cards so lets hope and pray that Allah (swt) may lead them into the right direction. They still enjoying the public support tho!

 

am

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