Will divisions undermine Somali rebellion?

[Fabregas]

http://www.metimes.com/International/2008/02/28/will_divisions_undermine_somali_rebellion/2326/

 

 

In his critique of the ARS, Amriki writes that the Shabab has adopted the manhaj (religious methodology) "adopted by the Mujahideen in the rest of the blessed lands of jihad," including that of Osama bin Laden, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and "the lion, the genius, the doctor" Ayman al-Zawahiri. According to Nick Grace, who follows the jihadist web for ThreatsWatch, global jihadist forums have taken note of the split, and opinion on them generally runs against ARS.

[Armchair Politician]

Everyone forgets about Hasan Hersi.

 

While Shabab fights and the ARS holds press conferences, he continues to train and equip his army in lower Juba.

[Fabregas]

Who is Hassan Hersi? Isn that the bloke that left the ARS and said he was joining Alshabaab? I think what we are seeing is somewhat to similar to what happened in Iraq. Alqaeda(Alshabaab in this case) are trying to monopolize the resistance from the the nationalists, tribalists and the "moderate" Islamists". I doubt they can succede and great a one group junta in a such a decentralized and tribal society. I also doubt that the Somalis will accept them to impose their will on them or tell them that they can't watch movies and whatnot, not for long any way. Watch the space! This nearly broken alliance will be tested in the coming months.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Make up your mind adeer. You have an unnecessary attention for details! Look at the big picture. Al shabaabs are on the fringes of Somali conflict. Here’s why; Somalis are clannish, and they are divided along those clannish lines. Their division is merely political. They don’t hate each other based on their respective clan lineages. Take it from me: Somalis have no theological divisions.

[Fabregas]

Ignoring the details of any given conflict leads to people making unrealistic goals and assumptions. Yours is a case in point: let SOmalis magically reconcile and unite first, whilst pretending to ignore the differences between the Somali actors, and reduce them to meer tribal undercurrents. Let us pretend that one group of Somalis in this current conflict have modelled their life on Osama Bin Laden, eh? It's all about clans miya? And how do these statements work together?

 

 

1.Somalis are clannish, and they are divided along those clannish lines

2.They don’t hate each other based on their respective clan lineages

3.division is merely political.

[xiinfaniin]

I have seen you argue many times on these very points and I am not impressed with your line of reasoning saaxiib! If you object for Somalis to reconcile on the basis of practicality yet offer no alternatives, I am left to assume that you are indeed rooting for the Xamar violence. And that’s sad adeer!

 

When the Courts emerged I supported them because they had both the political infrastructure and support they needed to effectively help change our country’s status. It was not meant to be for many reasons. Continuing a fight our side lost simply because we were wronged without national consideration of the consequences of it is simply desperate. Attempting to rule your subjects from the top of foreign tanks is even more pathetic and desperate. Those are the two opposing realities on the ground. I have the luxury and mental peace to observe it from a distance. I can see the bigger picture. I realize Somalis will lose big time if this violence continues at the rate it’s continuing. Others thought, ignorantly and unintelligently, I was rooting for a particular warlord! Some said I was impatience, and promised me victory if I waited on a little while.

 

Political reconciliation is the only way out of this. Some will say NO., and some will accept! Those who say NO out of pride, history will judge them very harshly. Those who wait fro clues from others to join this call of peace would be footnotes of Somali history. Nothing is impractical adeer if you have a positive attitude and forgo the urge of taking vengeance on those who wrong you! You can be bigger than this Geeljire. Stop this analytical feign. Don’t swim in a theological gloom to obscure what’s obvious and clear to everyone! Al shabaabs are on the fringes even if we consider the larger resistance. Their bravery and heroism will be all lost if they don’t compromise for the sake of their tired shacab!

 

If you learnt and know how to fight, you must learn how to reconcile!

 

Allow ma iri.

[Armchair Politician]

Hasan Hersi isn't like Al-Qaeda, he IS Al-Qaeda. He is their leader in Somalia.

 

Hasan Hersi was the leader of Al-Ittihad after Aweys, and fought in Afghanistan against the Soviets.

 

His is the most underestimated force in Somalia, and mindbogglingly ignored. Where do you think the Shabbab have been getting all their weapons and equipment from?

 

All of the Shabbab commanders are old students of his in Al-Ittihad, he's the one in overall command.

[Paragon]

^I think the rift between the fronts of re-liberation is already real. The ARS has rationally realized that the sort of exclusivity al-Shabaab insist on stands no chance to win the war, hence their visible compositional difference from al-Shabaab. I think the ARS (especially Sh. Shariif's view of things) looks promising but the view of al-Shabaab's Ayrow and Al-amriki, which as I said in another thread positioned to harbour a globalist ambition of liberation, is increasingly becoming unpopular with many war-weary Somalis. Nonetheless, al-Shabaab still commands a sizable support among Somalis and some non-Somali Muslims.

 

On splits blighting the re-liberation movement; I doubt it. So long as it is Ethiopia and the US that we are dealing with, it will take more than splits to undermine the struggle.

[Fabregas]

Xiin, I think you have missed the point of things slightly. The author of this piece was advocating for "reconcialition", but he has a different kind in mind. That is reconcialiton meant to divide Alshabaab and ARS and ultimately enhance the standing of the T.F.G, thus saving face for the Ethiopian or increase their interference in Somali affairs. Which looks somewhat unlikely as Ulema are on the ground trying to mend the differences.

 

 

You are right though: Alshabaab is somewhat minimal to the Somali conflict. Their importance is greatly exaggerated by those who's only existence and power is based upon fighting boogey Alqaeda. Though, they are important with regards to any peaceful negotiations in Somalia. Analysts are wondering what would be the reaction of people like Abu Mansur and other, if indeed, the Asmara Group made a peace a deal and compromised on such issues as Shariah law? If there was ever a peace deal what would be the role of the people like Turki etc? You might call this uneccesary detail, but these are important questions, unless you want to ignore the fact that many members of the I.C.U( military wing) are deemed as terrorists by the largest power in the world. There can't be peace if some are targeted with missiles and others are deemed "moderates" worthy of talking to.

 

 

With regards to the wider Somali conflict: what you are discussing here is the Somali clan grievance which dates back to the civil war and perhaps hundreds of years prior to that. The solution to that is clearly a long rehabilitation and reconcialition conference. This thread was more about the current war between Somali groups and the split between some quarters of the resistance, which the author advocated as way of securing Ethiopian and American interests in the horn.

 

Lastly, I have never opposed reconcialiation, saxiib. Why would someone like me living in the west wish for the suffering of reer Muqdisho?

 

I totally oppose the recent over- glorification and appeasement of traitors(T.F.G ministers) and sending them to the "moderate members" of the I.C.U. They are being sent by their Ethiopian masters as means of dividing the resistance not sincere reconciliation. But still there is no problem in talking to them. I just disagree that they can make their own independent decisons whilst Ethiopians are in Somalia.

 

 

My position is essentially the same as Sheikh Shariff. There will be negotiation and dialogue with the T.F.G. But legitimate defence of the lands shall continue so long as there are occupation troops on Somali soil, regardless of whether Puntland or Somaliland or join the good fight! Call that wishing for suffering if you like!

 

Everything else you say, I agree with and is thus pretty obvious stuff: Somalis are divided....reconcialiation is the solution...........

 

quote:But Abdiweli Ali, an assistant professor at Niagara University who is close to the TFG, believes that there may be a strategic opening. He told me that a late February skirmish between supporters of the ARS and Shabab in Dhobley killed three or four people.

 

 

In mid-February, ARS leaders Ahmed and former Somali parliament speaker Sharif Hassan Sheik Adan traveled to Cairo. The press speculated that they may have been there for talks with the TFG, an assessment with which several of my sources agreed. Ali told me that new TFG Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein " has found a back door to moderates within the ARS," and believes that speaking with them is a positive move.

 

 

One reason that Ali believes the move is positive is because it has reportedly opened an aid spigot from EU donors who were encouraged by the talks. He believes there may also be propaganda value to Hussein's willingness to talk with the insurgent groups. "It is showing Somalis that the TFG is a force for peace," said Ali, "and that Hussein is different from the previous prime minister."

 

 

Beyond that, negotiations may further alienate Shabab from the ARS. Shabab leaders' opposition to negotiation derives from their theological worldview rather than tactical considerations, and they violently oppose even ARS lip service to moderation.

 

 

Can this rift be exploited tactically? There are differing views. Pham believes that as long as the ARS and Shabab can unite against the TFG, they will be able to maintain a sufficient alliance. He also believes that the TFG will collapse in the next several months, an assertion that Abdiweli Ali dismisses as "nonsense."

 

 

A regional analyst who requested anonymity told me that continued exploration of dialogue may widen the rift between the ARS and Shabab. "If continued exploration of possibilities for dialogue is pursued, at some point that's going to raise the issue of who's leading the talks," he said. "That's where we could see some real sparks fly. Every time the international community talks about bringing in moderate Islamists and opposition members, the Shabab fears they're going to be sold down the river."

 

 

Negotiations, discussions, and concessions must always be handled carefully. But the rift between the Shabab and ARS is real. What will ultimately come of it is another question entirely .

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

perhaps more then division, its names like abu hebel and al hebel. al ameriki? sounds like he should be in America.