Che -Guevara

Prez HSM should confront Abiy

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The old enemy is back to its old ways. HSM should engage with Abiy, sit down with regional leaders and adopt a consistent foriegn policy that puts Somalia's interest first.

Only internal political unity can thwart the likes of Abiy.

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Duufaan   

HSM started the whole thing because he continues with Rooble Baahane  Sahan’s policy. First he appointed Mahad Salad who first day went the home Fahad Yasin and clearly sent messages not only old leaders of NISA but countries they were close to like Turkey and Qatar.

And now he not only let free but hired one of Alshabaab top leaders in order to create problems for SW using tribal cards. Remember Abiya was in moqdisho speaking Somali and clearly say his ready to work with Hassan government. Even Farmaajo tried hard to make the two men friends.

Abiya is really weak and the next target of Sahan’s regime change in the horn. He hoped quit Somali front. But Hassan is one of tools Sahan planned to use to remove Abiya.
Now Hassan has domestic plans too. He gave up Jubaland, Puntland and Somaliland but want to control the rest in Moqdisho including SW. + the money. That is the problem. The 5 years Farmaajo was in office a lot things changed and Hassan can not return the clock. Hassan must accept, the era of Shariif Saakin is over and as he accepted Jubaland, he must accept SW regions. SW is not extension of Banadir and HAG is just on of big tribes in these regions in south. 

Now he just needs to go back what he promised and convince others that he wants stable Somalia. No one care that much about him stealing money but other moves are problematic.

Right now  Hassan scares people more than Abiya and he must change the course. He needs to get back what he promised. He should fire both Mahad Salad and Roobow and call meeting with regional leaders. United IC is also watching him too.

Aftel all Abiya is willing to deal Hassan either ways. The poll is Hassan’s side for now. End of day his friendly embassies is with Abiya and cannot afford doing their biding. 
 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Duufaan said:

He gave up Jubaland, Puntland and Somaliland

Care to explain why you have to include Somaliland? When Somaliland is not even in the picture, doesn't want to be in the picture? 

On the topic, Abiye Ahmed is desperate. The economic situation in Ethiopia is very dire. Foreign currency is in short supply as Ethiopia's exports come to grinding stop. Just the other day, USAID bailed out by sending Ethiopia $200m worth of Fuel via Djibouti. Because Ethiopia couldn't find the money to purchase the fuel on its own.  

Ethiopia is not like the Ethiopia under TPLF. Today's Ethiopia is teetering towards civil war, its economy is almost non-existent. Addis Abeba also doesn't have the political and diplomatic cover from the Western countries that it used to.

So, anyone who is betting on Ethiopia, will get a slap on the face by the reality on the ground. 

With regards to HSM, he has a lot of things going for him. First, the International Community no longer has any appetite for the never ending quarrel, specially coming from PL. This is mostly from the experience of the last few years as opposition to Farmaajo's regime. 

The second thing going for him is that, he has good relations with key regional states including Kenya, Djibouti and UAE, as well as UK and EU. The US seems to be taking a back seat this time and is not on the front raw as it was at the start of Farmaajo's regime. 

I don't think HSM has given up on JL or PL. He just doesn't see them as top priority at this moment.  Probably, PL is on focus during the PL election year in 2014.

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'That train left the platform'. Abiy administration is protecting its interest   This mess is HSM doing.  He and his Galmdg boys advisors  see Abiy means Farmaajo.  That's the extent of their policy setting. 

By the  looks of it,  I think HSM wants to run Mogadishu and it's environs and doesn't give a hoot about the rest of the country.  

HSM is inept.  

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Duufaan   
2 hours ago, baala xoofto said:

Care to explain why you have to include Somaliland? When Somaliland is not even in the picture, doesn't want to be in the picture? 

On the topic, Abiye Ahmed is desperate. The economic situation in Ethiopia is very dire. Foreign currency is in short supply as Ethiopia's exports come to grinding stop. Just the other day, USAID bailed out by sending Ethiopia $200m worth of Fuel via Djibouti. Because Ethiopia couldn't find the money to purchase the fuel on its own.  

Ethiopia is not like the Ethiopia under TPLF. Today's Ethiopia is teetering towards civil war, its economy is almost non-existent. Addis Abeba also doesn't have the political and diplomatic cover from the Western countries that it used to.

So, anyone who is betting on Ethiopia, will get a slap on the face by the reality on the ground. 

With regards to HSM, he has a lot of things going for him. First, the International Community no longer has any appetite for the never ending quarrel, specially coming from PL. This is mostly from the experience of the last few years as opposition to Farmaajo's regime. 

The second thing going for him is that, he has good relations with key regional states including Kenya, Djibouti and UAE, as well as UK and EU. The US seems to be taking a back seat this time and is not on the front raw as it was at the start of Farmaajo's regime. 

I don't think HSM has given up on JL or PL. He just doesn't see them as top priority at this moment.  Probably, PL is on focus during the PL election year in 2014.

The only difference between PL , JB and SL is SL claims independent. The flags are different too. Even Jabuuti and Somali galbeed flags have a white star and blue section. I wonder why are you here if you don’t want to be in the picture. Sound crazy Habar masayrsan.  

back to topic

Hassan had great opportunity for his second term but he already messed up and it will get harder for him to maneuver. Abiya had survived and stays the remaining of his term. He has enough resources to deal with weak 6 Somalia governments.
 

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42 minutes ago, Duufaan said:

The only difference between PL , JB and SL is SL claims independent. The flags are different too. Even Jabuuti and Somali galbeed flags have a white star and blue section. I wonder why are you here if you don’t want to be in the picture. Sound crazy Habar masayrsan.  

Very lame. Even if I wasn't here, the question is still valid. Why include Somaliland into a topic that has nothing to do with it?

Somaliland is not the same PL or JL or other FMS. We don't have any relationship with Ex-Italian Somalia at all.   

 

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galbeedi   

There were zero opposition to HSM when he was selected. Everything was going for him. His vision is clouded by two groups, one domestic and another foreign. Sahan through its operatives are pushing his foreign policy including Egypt and Ethiopia. The other one is Galmudug and certain HAG members who want to encroach KG and incorporate Lower Shabelle to Mogadishu.

Roobow, the killer who went from prison to minister, which is first in the world, will be used to destabilize South West region through tribal confrontation. Also, Roobow has his former Al-shbaab/tribal militia waiting in Bakool and will be used when needed. In my opinion, Roobow a card carrying member of Khawaariij  won't be managing Waqaf or any religious affaires. Deni and Puntland who were quite for the last two months will soon raise their objections of Roobow and other Al-shbaab members within  the government. Roobow will soon resign and start his campaigning to replace C/caziiz Laftagareen. In fact, he doesn't need to resign , he  will be working full time to his campaign while carrying a false title. THere are no Waqaf or mercy tasks to manage in Mogadishu.

The next battle between Laftagareen and HSM/Galmudug will be in lower Shabeelle. Forget about fighting Al-shabaab, it will be about consolidating tribal regions. 

 HSM is a man of huge contradictions. He talks about peace, yet he is cultivating seeds of war and confrontation. The EU and the UN are somehow level headed organizations who are not simplistic in their view of the world. If  you see stupid or  disastrous foreign policy,  It is probably created by Americans who had failed everything they touched for the last 20 years. Why in the world would Somalia in the horn of Africa immerse itself in  the quarrel of oil and other businesses of the gulf, Iran, UAE and Israel.?

HSM want to run this marathon with the speed of sprint which means he will be tired soon. 

3 hours ago, baala xoofto said:

Because Ethiopia couldn't find the money to purchase the fuel on its own.

Ethiopia doesn't need millions to aggravate the Somali internal politics. It has millions of Hungry peasants who will be recruited for less than hundred dollars  to be deployed at the border regions to cause incursions by providing weapons to the willing Somalis who have tribal grievances. Ethiopia can't defeat a unified Somali leadership or a populace who support their government, that is why internal harmony is a must. THose who are trying to stage this proxy war are enemies of Somalia.

As Che said, HSM still has a chance to ditch Sahan and others and implement pro Somalia policy.

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42 minutes ago, Dalmar1 said:

wabaaaa wabaaaa so many crocodile tears from the looma oyaan hypocrites who were always rooting for subservience to Ethiopia shamelesslyimage.png.ac20829e74e96b90b86ebc8fd29064b7.png

Instead of posting a photoshopped picture, perhaps you could share something useful.

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Did some a$$hole here say ethiopia doesn't have it in her?

1000's of her troops now in Gedo. What is HSM going to do now? Send Egyptians? 

Sitting back and enjoying the mess.

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1 hour ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

Xabashada Baraawe aynan waligooda tagin ayee ciidamo u soo wadaan as Laftagareen wants in order preempt any move Xasan Sh. might do, what a very disappointing move to see. 

Very unfortunate on all sides! A smart leader would reconcile with Laftagareen and deploy Danab on the borders, and bring the boys in Eritrea to cleanse AS from Juba and SW regions.

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