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Posts posted by Old_Observer

  1. 11 hours ago, Saalax said:

    The news appears to be unverified despite large amount of Somaliland region media reporting it. Very odd. Where is @galbeedi since he has connections in Djibouti. 


    Calling for help from galbeedi after the unverified "news" has made the first round and is now ready to make the second round.

    Its typical nomad way of transmission. The only difference is nomads exchanged this on the road and has to be truth. The worst it could be according to nomad rules is a bit exagerated, but never patently false.


  2. This virus has become political football.

    The mayor may have thought he is telling truth, but that is not enough for somebody in authority. He needs also to prevent panic which can get people killed.

    As for the SFG its embarrassing, no leadership at all. Not even follow ship. Somalia could get more assistance than any African country since Qatar and Turkish would have been more than ready to help. Between technical capacity of Turkish and financial capacity of Qatar plus some help from others if available would have been fairly enough.

  3. A sign of what is to come with change of Empires. Remaking of maps.

    Countries that should have complained are not saying anything. Arabs are divided on this.


    If the Houthi say yes, or call for referendum its all over for united Yemen.

    The South are offering the Houthi something they cannot refuse. Mutual recognition and cross guaranteed (exchange of bases for monitoring) peace agreement.

  4. Countries in a Pickle already.

    Ethiopia caught between 100% political and security service to America/Arab yet 100% reliant on Chinese generosity.

    Kenya caught between India/British vs. China and also USA/British vs China/Turkish.

    Both Kenya and Ethiopia may have Locust induced famines and death far worst than Coronavirus.

    Djibouti the only country where everybody asks, yes sir Ghelleh, what can we do to make you happy. China, America, France, Ethiopia, Somaliland, Afar and Somali Kililkas, Singapore, Japan, Saudis, Turkish...the whole world is simply writing letters of friendship to Ghelleh. The Proud Nomad (DON) is smiling at these useless cowards and opportunists.

    He knows these are treacherous opportunists.


  5. Amazing how times change.

    We all thought you are bragging when you started this thread. 2020 is just finished a quarter, yet so many things happened already to show there will be so many great changes this year.


    Even Djibouti that always preached to Somaliland to stay in Somalia and find an arrangement, is having second thoughts.

    Djibouti is going to invest in something big in Somaliland before the year is out. Cannot be the port of course, but maybe is factory and road work. Something is in Ghelleh back pocket. He always wants to have stake in Ethiopia(specifically Afar and Somali Kililkas), Somaliland. That way everybody around has risk and opportunity to stay in peace.

    Somaliland is now more preferred by Ghelleh than Kililka, even with the shared clans.



  6. What does the SFG has to do with this?

    The propaganda has got to their head that they are attaching themselves to rain or sun shine now.


    This childish politics of "we control this..we control that...you need to get through us if you want this or that..." will lead into another Berbera style and size project which by then will be too late to even talk the simlest of things.

    Only Ahmed Shiek was made to understand this by Ghelleh and he understood it very well.

    It is very easy to deny legitmacy to SFG since SFG is 100% reliant on foreign powers from Ethiopia to AU to IGAD to AMISOM to Yamamoto to EU...totally and completely reliant on foreigners.

    I say do not act as if you are a lion when people know you are not even a .....If your opponents prepare to face the lion, then you will be found to be not so very easily.






    • Haha - That was funny. You made me laugh! 1

  7. 2 hours ago, Oodweyne said:


    I will have it know to those Illiterate cretins and inanity-vomiting trolls around here in SOL, that far be it for them to actually worry their little empty heads with the affairs of Somaliland, that they would be better off to basically and really care (and be concerned with) for their kin and kith in Somalia, who are, in fact, now under a "glorified form of a colonial occupation" by a bunch of hired African's Bantu mercenaries, in this freaking day and age. 

    That would have been (in my view) a better fist of a subject matter for them to actually care for. Not Somaliland's destiny, given that whatever else that could be said about Somaliland, at least her days to come are matters in which her proud sons acting with liberty will decide and will take care of it.

    Wouldn't it be very funny if the world map is changed triggered by Corona Virus? The map has to change, but anything so monumental needs a trigger.

    The Iranians put a Military, not just any satellite, in space and both US and Israel could not stop them this time. All the boats of Iran were out to see shadowing every western ship for retaliation if their space program was interfered with.

    Why are all troubles always somehow affecting HoA and Gulf?


    If trouble happens those who think they are strong like Ethiopia are definitely falling apart and those who think they have no diplomatic chance now will get what they wanted since they are ready for it. That is what I see happening. No body is going to stop Somaliland if some chaos happened, which probability is very high.


    Hate doom and gloom, but food issue is becoming even bigger than COVID right now.



  8. 9 hours ago, qofkale said:

    I don't think the Somaliland/Somalia situation is in the hands of the Somalis anymore. In my opinion, how this plays out now depends on what the Ethiopians, regional Gulf Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) & Kenya with the help of the E.U., USA and China have in store for the region.

    The most humiliating part is that the Gulf Arabs or Ethiopia have never determined their own fate themselves.

    British and French have always decided for Ethiopia and the same two for Arabs. America of course takes over British/French.

    So it is water carriers of America that are deciding.



  9. Iran taking delivery of 3 mln tons of wheat to improve supplies


    An Iranian government official says 58 ships carrying wheat had been unloaded at three southern ports of Chabahar, Imam Khomeini and Bandar Abbas since February.

    Iran is taking delivery of around three million metric tons of wheat from Russia and Germany as part of efforts to improve food supplies for the current Persian calendar year which started in March.

    A senior official at the Government Trading Corporation of Iran (GTC) said on Monday that wheat imports had increased significantly this year to ensure the country would not run short of supplies of the staple grain in case of any disruption to the markets because of the new coronavirus pandemic.

    Hossein Fallahnejad named Russia and Germany as the sole origins of the wheat purchases.

    GTC authorities had earlier indicated that around one million tons of wheat would be shipped to ports north of Iran from Russia and countries in the Black Sea region across the Caspian Sea.

    However, Fallahnejad said that 58 ships carrying wheat had been unloaded at three southern ports of Chabahar, Imam Khomeini and Bandar Abbas since February. He added that another five ships were also being unloaded in southern ports.

    He said ships carrying the remaining one million tons of the purchased wheat would dock at unspecified Iranian ports until the end of March.

    Iran revises buying price for wheat to support farmers

    Iran says buying price for wheat this year would be 50 percent higher than the last season.

    For the past two years, Iran has been taking steps to ensure there would be no disruption to food supplies at a time the country is under a series of unprecedented sanctions by the United States.

    Growing wheat imports also come as authorities have given assurances that food supplies would not be affected by the spread of the new coronavirus pandemic around the world and inside Iran.

    For years, Iran has relied on local farmers for supplies of wheat. Government estimates suggest domestic output for the grain would reach 14 million tons this year of which the GTC plans to buy around 10 million tons.




    An Iranian government official says 58 ships carrying wheat had been unloaded at three southern ports of Chabahar, Imam Khomeini and Bandar Abbas since February. Iran is taking delivery of around three...


  10. Hunger Games: Nations Scramble to Secure Food Supplies

    Today on TruNews we discuss the forecasts of soup lines and meat shortages in the world as coronavirus, swine flu, and government mandated culling wipe out food stores, seed vaults, and meat processors in America and China. We also discuss the Biblical onset of locusts in Australia, the Trump bail out of the oil industry, and the reported brain death of Kim Jung Il’s son, Chairman Kim. Rick Wiles, Doc Burkhart, Edward Szall. Airdate: 04/21/20.

    Content Contributed By —  TruNews Team


    It looks a different kind of Evangelicals of Orthodox, but interesting discussion and info.


    TruNews is the world's leading news source that reports, analyzes, and comments on global events and trends with a conservative, orthodox Christian worldview.


  11. 5 hours ago, galbeedi said:

    Djibouti is a sad case of a despot surrounded by thieves and Khat addict ministers.

    A ten minute rainstorm would even flood heavily the upper side of town. With the city surrounded by the sea, it is easy to build few kilometers long pipes to drain the water. THe Italians built in 1950 in Mogadishu downtown.A little storm exposes the false African states which  no one knows who they really serve.

    IMagine for 30 years Djibouti state could not build a bridge between Djibouti city and Balbala. They used to pave the road passing the dry creek and when the rain comes it washed again and again. A whole country can not build 40 meter bridge.

    Do not be fooled, Djibouti is a one city state with over two billion GDP. With hundreds of millions earned from foreign aid and rent from bases , they can easily afford hundreds of millions of capital infrastructure. The problem is the fat man Omar Ghelle doesn't believe investing in people and their infrastructure needs.

    Folks, here is how you measure Djibouti. He is basically a mayor of one town. 90% of the population lives in Djibouti city. As a mayor of Djibouti city with close to a billion dollar budget,  he could create a modern city with wide streets, drainage, water for everyone and cheap city run electricity.

    Djibouti state works for 200 families of oligarchs who loot everything. If you open a successful business, the ruling family will demand shares or you will close.

    DO not be fooled about the port infrastructure which doesn't serve the people at all. Even 70%of the employees at the port were  foreigners when I visited the container port in 2010.



    Do you realize that you and I cannot be constructive. We are not fair.

    If you were president of Djibouti, what would have been different and in what way. Ever considered that?

    Anyone that I have seen oppose Ghelleh are:

    1. Why you did not join Somalia

    2. Why you allow Somaliland to do what they do

    3. Why do you let tribal chiefs dictate about roads, city expansion, airports...What do they know?

    4. Why were you friends with Tigray

    5. Why didn't you force Puntland to join and or accept unconditionally Arta

    6. Why didn't you let the Afar Oligarchy control everything of the port

    7. Why do you let your wife dictate certain areas of your presidency or anything related to Somaliland good or bad?


    All unfair accusations.

  12. 8 hours ago, Suldaanka said:

    After almost 50 years of indepedence, the city of Djibouti has yet to invest in proper drainage and flood control mechanism. 

    Another one of your friends.

    Flooding in a desert sea coast is good necessary once every decade or so.

    That if course is defending the indefensible.

    On the other hand its not completely out of place. Even if Ghelleh had built tunnels and routes for the excess water, it would have been plugged with garbage anyway.




  13. Oodweyne,

    Somaliland recognition can only come from Internal or External factors or combination.

    If the world goes for a shake up then Somaliland will be better positioned to take advantage of it.

    If Mogadishu says, lets not keep each other poor and backward, just to stay together in poverty war and backwardness, lets find a way to separate peacefully and unite as a result of being separate. Not become obstacle to each other and not host rebels of any kind against each other.

    Or combination of the two. Some regions in Somalia call for Somaliland file to be dealt with immediately. Referendum, separation, confederation...what ever but close it within a year.

    Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya also ask both to formalize something. Example all these countries can have consulates in Somaliland that has Embassy authority. Can sign economic deals except when blatantly to the disadvantage of the other side..etc. Ghelleh is keen on this kind of solution, since this guarantees no war.

    I have the feeling that recognition has not really become make or break for Somaliland. If it becomes or rises to that level you would see Mr. Bixi carry a kalashnikov and stir trouble in Galkayoo, Hiiran...everywhere. That frightens Ghelleh and Kililka more than anything else. The collateral damage from this is enough to make life hell for Djibouti and Kililka.

    You have never seen any Somaliland leader that will say either recognition or I will resign....That is an indication that Somalilanders can live with the statusquo for some time. Otherwise leaders would have stated either I bring recognition or you can hang me from tallest lamp post.

    Somaliland is like Taiwan. Taiwan has a lot of investments in Mainland China. China has never stopped Taiwan from any development.

    Taiwan is never going to risk war just to get recognition.

    I am totally convinced that Somaliland is not going to risk war for recognition. You can see it on Ghelleh face. He is confident that Somaliland is not going to kill Djibouti and Puntland for recognition.

  14. maakhiri1,

    Yes. Apparently the wells cannot just be shut. If you had pumped so much water into the ground. The oil is coming up.

    In Saudi case it will explode. There were also hundreds of ships loaded with millions of barrels already when Saudi had decided to up the ante.

    Negative market has started already.
    Most likely the big companies want to bankrupt the medium and small guys, so they buy oil wells of mideium and little guy cheap and shut them. The likes of Exxon BP can do that. Buy all the wells, shut them until oil becomes 200 and make a killing from oil wells they bught next to nothing.

  15. Crude oil prices are plummeting amid the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, threatening to shut down the global economy by dramatically decreasing the demand for oil products, resulting in near-capacity oil storage facilities and a market crisis.

    On Monday, the price of WTI for delivery in May fell to a negative value for the first time in history, reaching about minus $40 per barrel at NYMEX, as traders tried to get rid of their positions at any cost on the last day of trade.

    The unprecedented negative price was partially explained by the fact that the contract closes on Tuesday, and there is no additional capacity to store oil.

    The demand has fallen sharply due to the coronavirus pandemic, and storage facilities are already close to full.

    Follow Sputnik's live feed to find out more.

  16. Suldaanka,

    The train/railroad is 50-50 not sure which country has 50.01
    China cannot hand over the whole thing until a certain percentage is paid and there is a verifiable plan for the balance to be paid. Djibouti and Ethiopia are equally responsible.

    I am amazed when I hear some Xabeshi that consider themselves knowledgeable state that the train is Ethiopian.

    Regarding ports:
    First plan was exactly like Berbera. Meles guaranteed Djiouti by volume and by percentage Ethiopian business and UAE invested.
    I had posted here in another thread how it would take Ethiopia decades or billions of dollars to get out of Berbera.

    Djibouti is a hundred times that. There are 3 ports that were built based on it. One for Animal and meat and one port totally for Potash.
    Djibouti was also going to produce its food in Ethiopia, specifically where Somali and Afar regions are.

    Electricity, water, garbage/waste management would be integrated corporations. Example Djibouti/Ethiopia 40/60 on Electrical corporation, 50/50 on waste, 30/70 on Water...etc. including Ethiopian airlines which would have a regional airline totally based in Djibouti.

    As they recover money or make profit no reason to reinvest. Ports will not need investment next 25 years since it has latest and greatest technology. Train is enough just maintaining which is part of the cost, no need for new investment, it is also most modern.

    What they charge each other gets reduced until certain level. Of course can never be zero since they have to keep milking the public investments.

    Of course for commercial and competitive reasons Abiy or Ghelleh are not going to speak about deals. But its always safe to assume there is some investments and where ever there is investment there is guarantees.

    Abiy has this capacity to smile even when he has lost totally.

    I am certain Abiy is very disappointed, there is no business going to Eritrea. Even for an African dictator, there is nothing he can do about it.
    He can of course pay some Somali or Afar to start war and close the road. That game was tried last year and was very quickly made clear that he will loose more than Ghelleh.

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  17. Oodweyne,

    Give it a week and people are going to say "too hell with this i might as well die functioning". It has already started in US.

    OIL for may contract was today negative. Which means oil companies have no where to keep it, they pay you to take it.

    3 dollars a barrel is the latest. The oil company pays you 3 dollars a barrel to take the oil. Most of them will deliver.

    People will go for the British option. Herd Immunity. Who ever makes it makes it. Take any kind of medication whether it works or not.

    Imagine wars that can come out of idleness. Already saying family domestic violence and divorce filings are going to be way up.

  18. Suldaanka,

    The situation is the same with Eritrea except the Eritreans were ready to be anything even Arab, to get out of it. Somalilanders never compromised in the Somali Ethnicity.

    Meles used to really respect that. He did not like Somaliland, but he was the type of person who respects people if they respected their identity.

    He has met some war lords from Mugadishu who were saying they are related to Ethiopians. Maybe they are, who knows, but you could not say that to a Tigray without looking silly.

    Somaliland was still and still now is wanting to do it peacefully and also with good will from the other side as well. Its good principle, but difficult to implement in Africa.

    At the end of the day it will only be possi ble if someone from Somalia says, enough is enough. If they want to go let them go and lets wish each other the best of luck and get to work.

    OR there seems to be war very likely somewhere in the world. It has to happen soon. Economy is not salvageable. America is already openly and publicly talking about how to not pay the debt. Maybe they will intimidate China before it becomes more powerful militarily and tell it to pay compensation for Coronavirus 22 Trillion.
    There already has been 3 cases filed in US courts for compensation to America of 22 Trillion dollars.

    The world will change.
    Yemen will be different, Horn Of Africa will be totally different, India/Pakistan/Afghanistan will be changed...etc.

    • Like 1

  19. May contracts are being signed as follows:

    Buy from me and I deliver it to you

    No. Buy from me and I deliver it to you and pay your workers to unload it

    No No Buy from me and I pay everything plus I give you some bonus cash.

    ONLY Russia is saying. You take it or leave it and actually you have to pay for delivery, even when I agree to sell you the oil at zero.

    A week ago this would have been impossible to explain to people even as theory. Now its a reality. You get paid to take oil, a commodity which has caused the most wars regime changes..in history.

  20. Look at Abiy:

    Reality he begged Ghelleh for forgiveness for Abiy attempt to go against Chinese in service of USA. Abiy begged the Chinese to extend the loan repayment and to use Djibouti train and transport for free..etc.

    In Ethiopia he tells his gullible" that "I Abiy the Nobel price winner squeezed this fat Somali in Djibouti. Thretened him with regime change and he begged me"...the listners are laughing, because they know the truth.


    That is Africa, but in fact that is politics around the world.

    You reckon that Farmaajo is not capable even to copy or listen when told by Abiy or Afwerki what to say and what to do?

  21. That is where Farmaajo is copying the face book style lies and exaggerations and outright unrelated issues.

    First of all Ethiopia is taking responsibility for the debt Djibouti has Abiy will not tell you this unless he is made to look so generous from what he does not have.

    The price reduction is built in every year the cost of capital is recouped and price is reduced that much

    Djibouti does not want to show profit of anykind. Its bad with UAE case and bad for the public relations in Ethiopia.

    Abiy has quietly signed to the deal Meles did, nothing for Eritrea. What ever is excess will be Berbera and Port Sudan. That Abiy will never even mention it.

    Fake news and even true news, too much exaggeration  has become normal with Abiy.


    Ghelleh is always light years ahead of these wannabe smarts in HoA. Ghelleh actually is trying to launch the food production projects in Ethiopia that benefit Somalis and Afar only. Offering free port services for any thing for these projects and 6 months for Potash to establish.







  22. Short answer:

    Method and learning from others:

    Morroco and Western Sahara Not good example

    Sudan and South Sudan Not good example

    Ethiopia and Eritrea Perfect example:

    1. 80% of Eritrea and 10% of Ethiopia are same Ethnics (Agew, Afar, Tigray (3) The Tigre in Eritrea are closest to Tigray) sister Ethnic.

    100% of Somaliland and 90% of Somalia are same Ethnic

    2. Somaliland was British and Somalia Italian Eritrea was Italian and Ethiopia was Unformal protectorate of French/British.

    3. When Europeans were doing house keeping Somaliland joined Somalia and Eritrea joined Ethiopia. In both cases half the elites and majority of the peoples wanted it.

    4. Elites got diappointed and changed their mind within a decade of the unity. Wanted divorce. Africa signed not to change colonial borders, but these two are an exception. Somalia forfaited this resolution by invading Ethiopia. This is where late President Barre would not listen to advice of WSLF only thinking of quick victory.

    5. Tigray/Afar were key to Eritrean recognition. Puntland is key to Somaliland recognition and to some degreee Djibouti and Kililka also have a place since the peace or war affects them directly. They share a lot of things with Somaliland from people to rivers to roads to wild life animals and environment...etc





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