Posts posted by Old_Observer
I think Somaliland should focus on the roads and dry port sections very quickly.
Everything else can change in a day or a week. A Military base can be opened or closed without the earth shattering if there is change of leadership or some situation.
Roads once start being used, port once starts holding containers of the world...has a lot more eyes caring for its continuity and safety.
The Changes in Djibouti if they happen can again either foreget the Berbera for next decade or even totally change the lines for future.
The story has some legs, but has nothing to do with democracy or peace.
It has conflagration of interests:
America (Yamamoto is the senior man for the area who is on the Hillary, Biden...camp and totally hateful of Ghelleh). UAE and their shoe shining Egyptians for obvious reasons. Eritrea for personal reasons as well as UAE and America reasons.
Ethiopia is caught in a pinch. Anything goes wrong in Djibouti and Ethiopia is dead. It will not be able to put together the Somalis as did Menelik or King Haileslassie/Mengistu to secure the road. The way Meles did is impossible now with America China heated conflict and UAE/Egypt roaming instead of Turkish/Qatar.
The prisoner can now not be released. Its beyond that point.
Hopefully Ghelleh will be able to contact some influential elders and arrest those that are obviously and openly bragging as having support of other countries.
There are only two people's in Djibouti that mattered and now some "foreigners" also gaining place, mostly Ethiopian leaning.
Among Somalis and Afar:
Those with Ghelleh Afar prefer France Somalis prefer Everybody including new ones Chinese, Japanese who ever can afford.
Those against Ghelleh the Afar still prefer France and the Somalis prefer Arab.
Ethiopia would never have majority support and even reasonable support. The only way Ethiopia can effect change in Djibouti is violent demonstrators paid by Arabs and America taken from Semera and Jigjiga with some soldiers from Eritrea.
What I like about the Turkish is that, they do not do harm on other peoples to please others.
Iran and America have been at each others throat last 40 years. The Turkish have never harmed Iran to please or get favor from America.
Compare that to the Egyptians who would close Gaza the minute PM Netanyahu tells them.
Arabs expelled Syria from the league just to please their European overlords. Turkish never put forward at UN or any other body they can against Syria, but did all they can to overthrow the regime.
They also took advantage of their location: Europe east and west and Asia east and west.
Good education foundation, great industrial base, great history....are fundamental in going up ward mobility.
Its the same game everywhere where the locals are weak. Blame their brother of inviting foreigners yet themselves invite worst foreigner.
If someone has no shame of inviting Arabs who destroyed Libya following their European masters wishes, then has no justification to accuse those inviting Turkish.
Turkish and Russians for different reasons were opposed to European American destruction and plunder of Libya.
If some Libyan is not ashamed to invite and work with France...France...France...Zarcozy country...then has no acceptance to accuse the Government of asking Turkey for help.
Everywhere in the world is the same.
There were so many SOLers so excited for Abiy to arrest Somalis in Jubaland as he did in Baydaba for them, yet these were the same folks accusing others of inviting Ethiopia or Kenya or Djibouti or Yemen...
Of all foreign powers the Turkish are the most accepted. Both by history of their stand and their current stands as well.
I completely agree with you that Ghelleh is overstaying and whenever dictators over stay they destroy society and country.
Ghelleh is also multiplying enemies rather than multiplying friends as his uncle and himself used to do, that means too much corrupt people around him.
Ghelleh is also taking sides easily among the people around him who are gossiping corrupt individuals, instead of summarily excluding them or sitting them together in one room and tell them to say what they say behind each other.
Government officials are becoming too attached to different countries some to France, some to China..etc even some to America.
As for accusations this person was killed, this person was tortured or kidnaped..etc take it with some grain of salt as westerners say, especially from Africa. From what I know, so far Ghelleh has not gone to other dictators modus operandi.
He still conducts elders meetings. Has not completely gone to elite dictators yet.
Westerners will never give Turkey advanced weapons there fore Turkey:
Has now activated the S400 system
Joint production of advanced aircraft between Turkey and Russia is near completion
Negotiations for second group of S400s is complete waiting for Signatures.
Expect for HoA to watch TV from Turkish Satellites soon.
Hopefully the Turkish can transfer the low tech factories they have so many to the Horn of Africa. Farmaajo, Abiy, Afwerki and new Sudan PM are all scared of Arab gulf and missing on so much opportunity right now.
Your first and last sentence say the most important.
"Turkish involvement will be good for everyone including the Saudis.
Yemenis need a caring nation that puts their unity on the for front. "
The Turkish seem to be country of honour. In Syria they said will not go deeper than 30km and whether good or bad have not violated this. They have capacity to go hundreds of Kms if they wanted to.
Turkish are the only once that all Yemenis including Huthis can accept as country with good intensions to average people.
UAE will be biggest loser. Qatar will be able to finance some Turkish textiles and other industries in Yemen to make win win for everybody.
What is happening in Libya is the difference between evil intensions of the weak and wicked like UAE, Egypt, France, Greece..etc and Turkish and all silent majority of world.
The Turkish have national interest. Yes. Why not. But the important principle is that the Turkish want and wish and work for the Libyan people to have a government. That is noble principle and regardless of the military situation Libya people know this.
“Instead of entering the ruling administration in Egypt in a dialogue with Turkey, they preferred to give up and not to defend the rights and interests of its people in the Mediterranean basin, in favor of external powers that allowed them to intervene. There is no reason other than hostility to Turkey as the Emirates has no relationship in the Mediterranean,”
Turkish Foreign Ministry
Sissi is getting money from UAE to stay in power, but selling out long term interests of Egypt for century to come. Typical of Egyptian dictators.
In a years time Libya will have a unified government.
Once having done that the Libyans need to kick out anything Egyptian, Arab, French....
I do not think you want the great Somali Don to fail. Its just brotherly rivalry and envy between you two.
Sometimes the Don is too fast. Like moving beyond Coronavirus, when he knew this is dead donkey, no money or development with it.
Sometimes the Don is too slow. Like when he simply ignored Farmaajo and his HoA bosses to make all sorts of propaganda and fake projects. The Don knew the only project that will go ahead and have some benefits is the Berbera port and related projects.
I generally have a theory about political prisoners..etc in HoA and middle East.
First thing is do not Kill. Second do not Torture. Third is release as soon as you have achieved your main objective.
The Don respects this formula which makes him better than any dictator around there. I am a relativist.
Everyone is guessing who will benefit among Yemen groups. The Situation is very confusing.
The Southern separatists would prefer Turkey, but there are two problems. They are currently supported by UAE and also Turkish would not like Yemen to split again if it can be avoided.
The Hadi government would prefer Turkey, but again they are mainly Saudi hands and have not treated well the Turkish allied party allied to Hadi side.
The Houthi see Turkish as neutral and probably most genuine power that wants well for the people of Yemen.
The fact that Turkish will be involved in more than humanitarian aid in Yemen is beyond dispute.
Which side in Yemen will benefit? How will UAE and Egypt be totally humiliated and made very small in Arab world? How will HoA arab shoe shining boys act and dance now?
The most important question right now is parties based on what.
If regional or sub-clan
If faith ladden of @radical, moderate...etc
So far the system in Puntland (mix of everyything from 1000 year old nomadic culture to latest republics and democracies) is not broken and does not need any fixes IMO.
The World Bank’s portfolio in Djibouti consists of 14 IDA-funded projects totaling US$209 million.
Ghelleh and the Djibouti elders have decided to integrate the displaced population from all countries, but mainly Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea. The chances these people will some day go back to their original homes is nil. Ethiopia and Eritrea will almost never be welcoming their peoples from Djibouti for many reasons including economic reasons. Somalia also seems getting further and further from being a country where people can return to their homes and re-establish life.
The more these people stay in Djibouti without any hope, means more security risk as well, in addition to economic, social, cultural...problems. A lot of human power is also being wasted.
Both the International development and world bank are enthusiastic of this great idea.
25 Million Dollars has been allocated yesterday June 1, 2020. Its a great start.
Brilliant program, same program that has given Ethiopia few of its industrial parks where the condition is to hire 20% of the work force from refugees.
Go Ghelleh beyond Coronavirus. Ignore the obstacles the European and Arab as=ss kissers throw at you.
Hope all citizens of SOL Republic are Well with Families and friends.
MMA is the chief of the emergency committee if we will have one here.
Afwerki can do it since he is far away and has no opposition in his country, plus he can make some money from it as well as increase his influence on Farmaajo.
For Abiy a lot more calculation has to go into it. Only if he finds another big foot group to do it, otherwise Abiy could become a road kill himself.
If I were you I would make money from this arrangement, before the winds change direction. All Horn of Africa folks are always looking for such an opportunity. In the process Somaliland also would help not just Somalis, but Xabeshi and others as well like Afar, Oromo, Eritrea...etc
The Turkish would be more fair, and righteous when it comes to countries like Somalia.
They were the first along with Yemen to come to Mugadishu even in 2006 when they did not agree with most things, but still wished the end of the war and warlords.
There is a pattern, in my understanding from the reporting:
1. Some countries cannot hide
2. Some countries do not want to hide
3. Some countries are so backward and poor or do not control their teritories
1. Algeria, Egypt, South Africa, Morroco..may have wanted to hide, but they are too technically advanced relatively they cannot hide
2. Sudanese and for most part Somali would not hide very open society and people
3. Xabeshi are this third kind. They want to hide and everything helps them to hide. Backwardness, secretive society, poverty and no control of all territory..etc
What the man did for Somaliland and all Somalis is:
Neutralized Djibouti, Puntland and Kililka. This denied role and place for Meles Ethiopia. Fortunately Meles was also appreciative and respectful even when he did not like the results. That saved a lot of lives, since North generally is more armed, more worldly with different powers, more balanced in fighting each other..etc.
To this day this general red line survives regardless what leaders from this or that enclave might say from time to time.
He also never degraded any Somali in order to get favors from any foreigner.
That also still works to this day. Never will Somaliland or Djibouti undermine a Somali from anywhere even as far as NFD, in order to get favors from other non-Somali countries.
Example the ICU time would have been perfect time for Somaliland to take advantage, yet Somaliland stayed totally out of it, even as ICU threatened. If Somaliland had inteferred, it would have gone too deep with Ethiopia and difficult to recover self autronomy self respect.
The Turkish would rather choose the Iranians than Saudis.
There is something called reliability. The Iranians are reliable as enemy or as friend.
Even an Enemy, you need them to have some self worth. If the Syria Iraq way does not work for Gas pipeline to Turkish, then the only option is through Iran. LNG is good, but never competitive or as safe as to pipeline. The Turkish need the Iranians as much as the Iranians need the Turkish.
Every body wants the kurds to continue being problem for everybody, so your idea about Syria and Iraq is not practical. Each country have to have a Kurdish contingent. If push cmes to shove Kurds will be OK with Iran more than anyone else. Maybe the Kurdish are some kind of land of Persia people, like the Azeri who are Persia lands people, but Turkic by language.
Russia is the one country that can defend its wealth militarily. Dependence on Oil is bit exaggerated. Look how Iran weaned itself in 3 years. Since Oil Sands is cheaper than Shale, you will comeback faster and export to America in no time.
Try Cattle ranching witch is also in trouble. Or ask the Houthis to help take Saudis out of the market. Then Nigeria. That should be enough to bring oil to more than 50 that you want. If need be Iraq and Kuwait and others can also be temporarily disabled. Euro Asia are smarter. They have Russia and Turkish and Chinese taking care of them.
I have soft heart for any people that survive adversity more than expected. Did you expect Mullahs to survive 30 years of non stop pressure and war.
Did you expect them to be the 4-5 country to position Satellites themselves A-Z after 30 years of sanctions?
Very few peoples on earth can survive that let alone develop a lot of technologies.
Small notes for the nomads about the great wars and HoA.
1. All Somalis except Djibouti and today's Puntland were part of the Second World War.
Those in Puntland and Djibouti had agreements with the big powers in their territories not to make them fight in other lands.
2. Salamanders were the highest level of self command of any people in Africa that were in either side. Example: in the Campaign to liberate what is now Eritrea, Somalilander commander had higher status on the campaign between Kassala Sudan and Asmara Eritrea. Even though the Sudanese were more in number than Somalilanders, but the Somalilanders are not colonial army. This mattered for the British. Somalianders were only lower than Australians and South Africans.
3. If it wasn't that Africans have no self respect, Eritreans if they remember the war should be thankful of Somalilanders. The Sudanese were blamed for the religious conflict that arose in Eritrea, never the Somalis.
The Somalis are never blamed for any abuses (even the common ones in wars) while others are.
4. Those who were on Italian side were undisciplined, abusive in both Somalia and Ethiopia.
5. Somalis never joined the Foreign Legion from Djibouti like other Africans did, nor did they Join the Italians outside HoA, like Eritreans did in Libya and Somalia.
Somalis can celebrate end of WWII even though most of the fighting by Somalis on any side was done as Europe was starting latest was early 1942.
Now the Iranians and Turkish may even be in better luck/coincidence.
Rumor has it that there was an attempted coup in Saudi Arabia and was almost exactly the same as the failed coup in Turkey some years ago.
UAE and Saudi are now in total panic. The Shale oil men are telling Trump to either get rid of Bin Salman or the Saudis as a whole.
Almost everyone expected for Iran to buckle under either Sanctions and "democratic revolutions" or Coronavirus.
Yet so far Iran seems to survive both and triumphantly.
Oil was totally sanctioned so Iran went into oil products and made as much money
Some exporting was totally sanctioned so Iran changed its market fast Example:Euro Asia and China, Pakistan instead of the Anglo American a-s kissing India. Japan Korea etc that can easily get exemption from Uncle Sam. While Iraq has to get every month permit to import electricity from Iran.
The Turkish are also reliable and partner with self dignity.
History and respect for one's ancestors and past has a lot to do. Invention of new computer programs, Medicine, Equipment advanced , Agriculture...is developing at break neck speed in Iran. The Persians are determined to survive this one, just as they did with the Roman empire.
GNA + Turkey defeated Haftar's melitia from capital Tripoli
See the difference between Egypt which is very close by land and water and Turkey which is relatively very far by sea and land.
Its principles and self respect that matters.
Egypt is now talking about ceasefire and the Turkish are not even commenting, the Libya government is enough to respond to Egyptians if necessary.
If the Egyptians as neighbor had gone to help make peace and ceasefire genuinly from years ago, they would have at least have had contacts from both sides.
Now even Haftar side despises Egypt.